Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Welcome to the 3rd quarter of 2026 earnings conference call for ADM. Our prepared remark today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Rowe, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Monish Papparwala, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted to the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast.

Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its report on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented in the material.

Unless otherwise required by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements due to new information or future events. In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAP fine-an financial measures are available in our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the ADM website.

I will now turn the call over to Juan.

Thank you, Kate. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. Please turn to slide four, where we have outlined our third quarter highlights.

Today, ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 and total segment operating profit of $1.4 billion for the third quarter of 2026. Over the trailing four quarters, our adjusted ROIC was 9%, and year-to-date cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $3 billion.

Total segment operating profit increased by 64% from the prior year quarter, reflecting another strong quarter of results. Our team executed well in a complex operating environment, where global energy prices remained elevated and biofuel margins remained favorable.

In nutrition, flavors delivered operating profit growth year over year, and in animal nutrition, the portfolio actions we've taken along with operational improvements are gaining traction and showing up in results. Given our strong performance year-to-date and our outlook for the remainder of the fourth quarter, we are again raising our full-year 2026 adjusted EPA's guidance. We now expect a range of $5.50 to $5.80 for adjusted DPS increased from our prior range of $5.15 to $5.60. Throughout this year, our substantial crashing, ethanol, and biodiesel footprints have given us tremendous access to a favorable North American margin environment, as have been a true competitive advantage. And in nutrition, we are building momentum. As we close out the year, we remain focused on continuing to deliver value for our shareholders.

In the third quarter, we paid our 379th consecutive quarterly dividend and resumed opportunistic shared repurchases. We reflect the resiliency of our business, the health of our balance sheet, and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Please tend to slide five. As I reflect on what we have accomplished so far in 2026, our goal coming into the year was clear, control what we can control, and achieve better returns that the market delivers. We made real progress on that front, and the team executed well against this quarter. I'll give a few highlights from the third quarter. In our services and oil sits, global crash volumes increased year over year, and our South American team delivered a record quarter for soybean crash volumes. In carbohydrate solutions, we sequestered approximately 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide during the quarter, and year to date, we have sequestered close to 1 million metric tons. And in nutrition, tangible progress is being made, particularly in flavors and animal nutrition.

We also recently announced plans to form a joint venture with CJ that combines our Decatur Illinois amino acid facility with select CJ acids. Global market pressures are put in US production of this great amino acid, particularly lysing at risk. This joint venture is designed to change that by creating a more cost competitive, reliable and long-term US source of supply for our customers. Please turn to slide six. Over the past few quarters, we walked you through the long-term growth pathways. We are investing in to power our next phase of growth.

Last quarter, we focused on natural colors in the US. That opportunity remains robust, and our target is unchanged, 80 to 100 million dollars of annual operating profit uplift over time in nutrition as customers launch products with natural colors. Today, I want to take a close and look at another pathway, precision fermentation, which sits within our car solution segment. Fundamentally, we believe that the combination of biology and technology will be a major driver of food innovation at scale for decades to come. Protein is one of the clearest examples of this. Global demand is outpacing traditional supply, and the world needs new sources of high quality, sustainable protein. By combining our deep R&D expertise with our substantial fermentation assets, we are helping build a more resilient protein supply chain through biomanufacturing.

We are already building customers and partnerships across several key areas. In pet food, we are investing in opportunities to scale animal-free, meat-like proteins, including chicken and lamb alternatives.

For baked goods, protein bars, pasta and other products, we are moving toward commercial scale production of an egg-white ingredient alternative, an endadian food manufacturing where whey is in short supply, we are working with a technology partner to produce a whey alternative that matches the molecular profile of conventional whey with more consistent quality. Three advantages set us apart from peers and the risk the near-term opportunity set for us.

First, our feedstock. Our access to commercial scale dextrous supply gives us a cost and reliability edge. Second, capital efficiency. We are using fermentation assets we already own so we can scale without the time and capital of greenfield projects. And third, our integrated value chain. Our R&D expertise, our global supply chain network and our customer relationships enable us to deliver a wide range of clean labeling gradients around the world. Together, this advantage is positioned as to deploy capital efficiently while helping customers meet growing demand. And the opportunity extends well beyond protein, including natural colors and highlights the strength of our organic growth plans. We continue to showcase other growth platforms in future earnings calls. I'd like to wrap up by thanking our colleagues around the world.

Every day you deliver for our customers while building was next. To the farmers who anchor our value chain and to our customers and partners who trust us to innovate alongside of them. Thank you. Together, we are connecting the harvest to the home with solutions for today and tomorrow. I'm now pleased to welcome Jeff Road to our earnings calls for the first time.

Jeff assumed the newly created role of executive vice president and chief operating officer in August with responsibility for our segments, global operations and sustainability. With that, let me turn the call over to Jeff.

Thank you, Juan. And good morning, everyone. I'm excited to join my first time with our teams and our operations around the world. I've been deeply impressed by the quality and the commitment of the employees and the strength and scale of our assets. Right now, I am most focused on three key operational areas.

First, operating as a world class manufacturer, we have made meaningful progress, reducing unplanned downtime across much of our network. And we see significant opportunity ahead to modernize our facilities and incorporate more automation. That progress is showing up in our results. For example, global crush volumes increased by 1.6% over the third quarter of last year. And we have more room to grow. Second is innovation, which is a particular passion of mine. Throughout my career, I have led large innovation organizations that have embraced technology to create value for customers around the world.

As Juan noted, combining technology and biology to drive food innovation at scale is a significant long-term opportunity for us in a space where we intend to be a leader. We are uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity with our global asset network, which gives us a daily view of how trends are evolving from the farm to the consumer. Few companies can match the depth of data we hold.

And AI lets us put that data to work, helping make faster and better informed decisions. We are turning these insights into better solutions for customers and a more durable, competitive advantage. I'm excited to leverage my 30 years of innovation experience to advance our efforts in this area. And third, targeted organic investment, guided by what our customers need and what would deliver the best returns for our stakeholders. We see two categories of compelling opportunity. First is near term, like de-bottlenecking and expanding existing domestic crush and ethanol facilities, which we recently announced. The second is investing in our value creation pathways, like precision fermentation capabilities and natural colors. ADM has a strong foundation and a real opportunity ahead as we advance our growth strategy and deliver on our priorities.

I look forward to working with the team to build on that momentum. And I'm also looking forward to getting to know many of you in the months ahead. With that, I'll hand it to Monish to walk you through our third quarter financials and full year outlook.

Thank you, Jeff. And I wish you all a very good morning. Please turn to slide seven. ASNO segment, operating profits for the third quarter of 2026 was $778 million, up 105% compared to the prior quarter. Included in the third quarter results were approximately $35 million of net positive market and timing impact. Refined products and other had net positive impacts of approximately $45 million, which were partially offset by modest net negative impacts attributable to ag services and crushing. Ag services in the current quarter generated operating profit of $172 million, representing a decrease of 9% compared to the prior quarter.

Higher corn and soybean exports out of the United States partially offset softer results in certain markets, such as Ukraine. For crushing, operating profit was $311 million for the quarter and increase of approximately $300 million from the prior quarter as the business performed well in a constructive North American biofuels margin environment. A constructive margin environment continues to be driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the RBO policy, which was finalized in March of this year combined with higher global energy prices.

Additionally, the team increased global crush volumes year over year and soybean meal demand remains strong throughout the quarter. In South America, crushed margins have been pressured by the delay in Brazil biofuels policy changes. For refined products and other operating profit was $218 million up 82% compared to the prior quarter. The year over year increase was largely attributable to favorable North American biodiesel margins driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the RBO policy finalization combined with higher global energy prices.

The results were further helped by market and timing impacts. For our investment in Wilmar, equity earnings were $77 million for the quarter up to 38% compared to the prior quarter. Turning now to slide eight. For the third quarter, carbohydrate solutions segment operating profit was $470 million representing an increase of 40% compared to the prior quarter. In starches and sweeteners, operating profit was $324 million up 11% year over year. The improvement was driven by strong ethanol margins including the benefit of policy incentives. Strength in ethanol margins continued to more than offset the ongoing pressure in liquid sweetener margins and volumes. Further, starches continued to show stability while global wheat million volumes remained stable in a competitive pricing environment.

In vantage processes, operating profit was $146 million representing a $103 million increase from the prior quarter as a con dry milling ethanol operations benefited from stronger ethanol margins including policy incentives.

Overall, based ethanol EBITDA margins for the quarter were higher compared to the prior quarter. Now turning to slide nine. For nutrition segment revenues in the third quarter were $1.8 billion down 4% compared to the prior quarter. Human nutrition revenue decreased by 2% largely driven by pressure on wholesome ingredients product line. Animal nutrition revenue decreased by 6% year over year, primary reflecting up previously discussed portfolio actions and the formation of the accolose joint venture. Nutrition segment operating profit was $134 million for the third quarter representing an increase of 3% compared to the prior quarter. Human nutrition operating profit was $93 million down 3% compared to the prior quarter. Progress made in flavors and the recovery of the Decatur East plant were offset by unplanned downtime, inflation pressures, market softness and biotics and the prior quarter benefiting from approximately 10 million of insurance proceeds.

Animal nutrition operating profit was $41 million for the quarter up 21% compared to the prior quarter primarily attributable to ongoing improvements and benefits from portfolio actions taken during 2025. Corporate expenses declined year over year due to the non-recurrence of prior year impairment losses. Other business results were higher year over year primarily due to a one-time benefit related to the release of certain insurance reserves.

Now turning to slide 10. For the first nine months of the year ADM generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately three billion dollars. We remain disciplined in how we allocate capital directing investment to the projects with the strongest returns. Through the first nine months of 2026, we invested 773 million in our footprint.

As we continue to be very disciplined on where we invest, we now expect 2026 capital expenditures will be in the range of 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion dollars down from our prior range of 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion dollars. During the quarter, we returned approximately 254 million dollars in dividends marking our 379th consecutive quarter of paying a dividend. We also resumed opportunistic share repurchases buying back approximately 360 million dollars of shares and we will remain selective on bolt-on M&A that complements our core businesses. Our net leverage ratio at the end of September was 1.5 times and our year-end target remains unchanged. Turning now to slide 11 where we have provided updated details regarding our 2026 outlook.

Earlier in the call, as Juan mentioned, we raised our outlook for 2026 adjusted EPS to a range of $5.50 to $5.80 up from the previous range of $5.15 to $5.60. Our raised guidance reflects both our year-to-date performance and our expectations for the fourth quarter. For ASNO, in Ag Services, we are assuming that China continues buying North American Soybean. In crushing and refined products and other, we expect the constructive biofuels environment to drive strong year over your growth in the fourth quarter. Results should also benefit from the expected reversal of the majority of the net negative mark-to-market and timing impacts carried over from the first nine months of the year.

As a reminder, we do not include new mark-to-market and timing impacts in our forward guidance. Additional adjustments could arise in the fourth quarter depending on the direction of commodity prices. For CARB solutions, we expect strength in ethanol margins, including policy incentives, to continue to more than offset the softness we are seeing primarily in liquid sweeteners. Additionally, we are raising our net benefit expectations from 45 Z to approximately $350 million for 2026 up from our prior expectations of approximately $250 million. For nutrition, we expect good year over year growth, although the fourth quarter is at seasonally low period of flavors. Additionally, we will work through the ramp-up of the plant currently experiencing downtime and we will navigate through inflation in certain input costs.

For corporate, we continue to expect costs to be higher than in 2025, driven primarily by performance-based compensation, along with continued investments in research and development and automation and digitalization. And we continue to monitor external factors across the macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy, and trade environments. As you recall, at the beginning of 2025, we had announced an enterprise-wide cost savings program that would have a targeted aggregate cost savings of $500 to $750 million.

The team achieved significant savings in 2025 and the momentum has carried into 2026. We remain on track to achieve our stated targets. In summary, the third quarter reflected good commercial and operational execution by the team in a complex but constructive global trade and biofuels environment.

In closing, I want to thank our ADM colleagues around the world for their focus and execution. It is their hard work that has translated into strong results and the accompanying cash flow funds our priorities today and our growth tomorrow. As we navigate a dynamic global environment, we remain well positioned to deliver on our commitment which in turn will create value for our shareholders. With this, I'll hand it back over to Juan.

Thanks Monish. To recap, our third quarter results show a significant step up in our needs. A constructive biofuels environment combined with our sizable North American presence and good execution by our team drove the year-over-year improvement. And that combination enables us to raise our full-year 2026 outlook again for the third time this year. Longer term, we believe we are well positioned to drive earnings growth through driving cost leadership, through technology, expanding high-performing assets and leveraging our existing platform to create value through compelling opportunities set in nutrition, bio solutions, precision fermentation and decarbonization.

With that, we'll take your questions now. Operator, please open the line.

Yeah, thank you, Manav. Good morning to you. Listen, as you said, we're raising our guidance for the third time this year to 550 and 580.

And the guide, the race reflects a strong year over year execution. I think the team has been performing very, very well in these circumstances. And the expectation that the team will continue to do so through the balance of the year. We have a constructive environment and I think none of that has changed, particularly in biofuels for Q4. And also remember that biofuel act services has their strong order in Q4. So, of course, with one month of Q4 behind us, there is a better visibility. But there is still a lot of market and execution factors that will determine where we land. I also remind you that we don't forecast market market. So, those things will happen.

Part of our high end is for us to recover. A lot of the market market that is coming back in Q4, we expect, you know, a majority of the market we still have there to come in Q4. We are expecting still China to come to on soybeans. We don't have big expectations for corn at this point in time since we don't have any news on that. So, it's a little bit more of the same with the normal seasonality, whether we have in the different businesses. And man, I've just, you know this, but just for your brother's benefit to flavors, usually, is the seasonal low for the industry that makes it seasonal low for our business.

And even in ethanol, usually it's a seasonally low for the industry that also makes it lower for us. And then, of course, you know, as one said, the cost out will continue in Q4 just like we did in Q3. And then the other one that I just wanted to call out also here was when you think about the changes that we have done.

In Q3, we had a one-time benefit of insurance reserves that we released in our captive business. So, it's one time, so that doesn't repeat in Q4. So, hopefully that answers your question.

No, no, perfect. So, Ed, move on. Sorry, man, if I was going to answer the second part of your question, you said about 27 and how I looked towards that. We look at 27 with optimism. We see a constructive market structure that actually looks substantially similar to 2026. We expect biofuels demand and margins to remain favorable, as we saw during the second half of this year.

And we expect there are going to be some supply chain disruptions. And, you know, that's where we are set up for. Our assets are our team and normally shine in those circumstances. So, our role is to try to bring products to the markets regardless of the circumstances. So, I think we're global footprint and the team's ability to execute. We play well.

We're also, it's a year of investment in 2027. We continue to invest in our future growth through R&D, but also through automation and digitization. And we will continue as always. We've been in this industry for the last 15 years. We will continue to be very prudent with our work capital allocation. We have the expectation that interest costs will rise year over year in the environment we are in. And we're going to continue to monitor all the barriers. Listen, at the end of the day, I expect a year that will look similar fundamentally to 2026. But there are going to be some things that happen in 26 that may not repeat itself. And there may be some new things in 2027 that we'll have to deal with.

So, it will be somewhere in the ballpark. And we expect to continue to invest in growth in the company.

Thank you so much. You have been very generous at your time. I'll turn it over and congrats on a great quarter. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Yeah, Andrew, listen, if you think about the macro and I think that all in the micro things are gonna be moving. In the macro, we still have a strong RBOs. We still have a strong biofuels policy. I don't think the industry is producing to the level that we need yet to match the RBOs.

So, we continue to see strong soybean oil demand for the business and we continue to see strong soybean meal, soybean meal demand. So, at this point in time, with the normal duration, you may have, you know, yeah, maybe crush margin picking in Q3 or whether we're very high in Q3. We are not seeing a collapse or any of these on the contrary. We see very strong margins still in Q4 and we still see it going forward into 2027. So, that's how we'll be able to go.

Sure. Listen, nutrition is going to cap a very good year in 2026 versus 2025. And we expect growth in 2027 versus 2026. When you correct for an insurance recovery that we have in Q3 last year, nutrition overall grew 13% this quarter versus last year. So, I think it continues to be a strong business driven mostly by flavors and by the recovery in animal nutrition.

We had an upset in one plant. We have identified what it is. We're fixing it. I don't want to disclose it for competitive reasons. But, you know, that I would say under control. So, nothing that should linger significantly into our P&L. So, only know we feel very good about the nutrition business. Flavors continue to do well. We continue to do well around the world. I would say if you look at Q3, we have a spectacular performance in Europe and Middle East. Asia continues to win customers for us. So, no, I think with exception of relatively smaller P&Ls like wholesome products that are ancient grains, seeds and things like that. I think nothing has changed versus what we said last quarter.

Yeah, listen, our Ag services business had actually a good quarter in North America and South America. We had some issues around the world with, of course, the the issues that we have in Ukraine. We have to revalue some of our inventory there due to our inability to ship some of that. But I would say in general, although maybe the corn crop or the corn global production will be a little bit lower and maybe the wheat production will be a little bit lower, I would say there are no issues around the world. There are on a global basis, there are pockets in which discontinuities happen and that's where our assets and our team shine. So, there are many of them.

If you think about probably the North America thing, I go to your comment about U4 and Ag services. We still expect soybeans to go to China. We still expect probably corn come to go to Europe. Corn has been exported also to all the neighboring countries and Mexico was a big taker and it will continues to be. Europe has a very low corn crop on top of a very low corn crop last year and of course, Ukraine is shut down for meaningful exports at the moment. So, we expect some of that brother will flow. So, nothing significantly strange that we cannot handle and we are adjusting every quarter. I would say every month I would play flows around the world, but nothing that we see that would not feed our assets or I would have really this supply right now.

Yeah, and I go back to the whole discussion we've had a few times on capital efficiency, capital allocation efficiency, and we've said it many times, we are looking at CapEx very carefully, making sure that we are spending money on projects that give us the best return and we'll prioritize those projects. For example, Ben, you saw last quarter, we announced that we were going to do de-bottle necking in our facilities in North America and in our SOIA facilities because that gives us very good return. So, I would just say this is all a part of that process where we are being very focused, making sure that we're getting the best return. So, I wouldn't read much into this at all and we'll continue being very prudent in where we invest capital so that we get the best return.

As regards 2027 and beyond, as Juan said last quarter two, right now when we were coming into Q2, we were in that one three to the one five range. We said in some years we'll be higher and some years we'll be lower, but generally based on everything that we see, the opportunities we have on de-bottle necking, the opportunities we have on growth, and it'll land where we land based on what our priorities are and as we see these growth projects come to life. So, again, I would not read much into the fourth quarter down. It's just, I would say good execution by the team to make sure we're being efficient. Sometimes what happened is what we're trying is to match the teams that needs to execute.

Sometimes a team needs to fix something or the bottleneck, something that there was an automation process. We cannot do both with the same team at the same time. So, sometimes it's sequencing and staggering projects that make this change, but you need to think about is something between 1.2 and 1.5 in our future to develop our program and to execute our growth plans and that will be where you should fork us.

Again, first of all, let me say the following because I think I need to reflect properly what's happening in the company. There is still enough volatility in this environment that we cannot take our eyes off the road. So, we are focusing on making sure we deliver 2026 and we transition with a lot of momentum into 2027. When we look at the overall 27, what I'm saying is it should be a little bit of a continuation of what we are seeing right now. We don't have the wisdom of forecast the big discontinuity in the conditions. We are under RBOs. We have multi-year policies in places like Brazil for biofuels. We have a good demand around the world for ethanol in terms of exports, about 2.4 billion gallons that tighten the market for that and we expect another year of growth in nutrition.

So, of course, there are things that we took advantage of in 2026 that we don't know how to forecast those for 2027 and they're going to be things that will show up in 2027 that will give us opportunities at this point in time. You know, we cannot imagine what they are. So, we continue to position our assets to be the right way with position our capital to have the capacity to produce this. You see, record production in crash in South America in Brazil for us. We are continuing to increase crash and corn grind in North America. So, all we can do is to prepare for that but the overall macro continues to be constructive for us.

So, it's somewhere in the range of what 26 was plus minus a little bit depending on the condition. I would also say that Juan said this in Manav's question earlier to continuing to invest in our company for the long run. We've got some exciting growth pathways here that we will decide how much we invest. We've got data and analytics and that's one thing Jeff also brings to the company is a lot of AI and how to use data and then of course based on the interest rate environment we could see interest rates higher but again, it will depend on the environment that we are. So, I think overall, I was reiterating what Juan said, the macro conditions seem very similar and constructive and you know, we'll also decide.

And you've seen Heather, we've been very thoughtful in our investments, whether it's on CapEx, whether it's on spending to make sure that we are doing it or we're creating value for the law.

So, I would say Heather, there are multiple factors that go into when we give you the 45-zero policy benefits, we're giving you the net benefit. The net benefit is made up of what is the base ethanol icing going to look like, what is prevailing wages, what's the CI score, and also what's the depreciation assets. So, sitting as of right now, we are at 350 million.

The team has done a wonderful job at expanding the program, lowering the CI score, etc. You will always have ups and downs in the quarter, depending on how much CO2 you have. Some of these other factors play itself out, but currently for the year, that's how we see ourselves. That is brilliant. And you've seen as the team has gained confidence, in the year we have been able to raise guidance and I give full credit to the team for doing it.

Yeah, so yeah, we announced plans to enter the voluntary carbon removal market through our operations in Columbus, Nebraska, corn processing complex. So the facility has the capacity to capture and permanently store more than 800,000 tons per year of biogenic CO2. Which is actually what we believe to be one of the largest carbon removal credit offerings of its kind. So the team at the moment is working through certification and verification process and expect initial credit issues probably by year end here in 2026.

So this of course builds on our capabilities that we have developed over many years in carbon capture and sequestration. And it's another nice way in which we expand our ability to create value with things that don't require any capital, if you will, and supporting growing customer demand for durable carbon removal solutions. Of course, in terms of your financial impact question, this is a nascent market. So we are watching how market conditions develop a little bit how we approach the market for 45 days. But we believe that regardless of that participation in the market positions ADM to benefit from growing interesting high quality carbon removal. So at this point in time, I'm going to be shy and putting the number out there for 2027 until we see how this nascent market develops.

But we're excited about it. We continue to look at to show the creativity and initiative of our team to make more money out of existing technologies and assets for ADM.

Sure. I'll try Tom because there's a lot that in this that you asked. So I'll try to make sure I answer it the best I can. You know, my team will be happy to take a follow-on. So I'll just first start recapping Q3 when you think about what the company delivered $1.77 where EPS was up 92%. When you look at the underlying factors, we had a constructive biofuels market. We had good execution in ethanol and the policy benefits. We had good commercial and operational execution by the team. And we had good growth in flavors offset by some of the issues that we had in one of our plants with unplanned downtime in nutrition. And you saw animal nutrition doing well.

So overall, the setup and the execution was very good in Q3. So I'll first start with that basis that in Q4, if you just take the implied for Q4 based on a year to date of $4.32, which is up 69% at the high end of the range, which would be up either 35% at the low end of the range or 70% at the high end of the range give or take. So that itself tells you that we continue good execution number one. The constructive markets that we told you in Q3 will remain in Q4. There will always be ups and downs depending on market conditions, but that's in general will remain.

Third, Ag services, especially North America always at the higher fourth quarter. And you should see that sequentially 3Q to 4Q should be higher. But we also have industry seasonal lows, whether it's ethanol or flavors. So you need to factor that in when you're doing a sequential 3Q to 4Q. So that's one that you have to factor.

45Z or net 45Z depending on how much carbon we can capture could be a little lower than we did in Q3 because we expanded the program in Q3. So we should see a little bit lower in Q4. And then when you look at nutrition, as Juan mentioned before, we continue to see the strength and flavors, but it's a seasonal low. So it'll be lower sequentially, but still good on a year over year basis. Animal nutrition continues. We have the ramp up of our plant that was shut down, that's based on plant down time in Q3. We expect that the ramp that will come back in Q4, it's not all going to come back day one, which is October.

So you have a little bit of a ramp there. Majority of the mark to market that we got in Q, that is on a balance sheet in Q3 will come back in Q, the balance will come out in 2027. Just for Q3, when you think about our mark to market, which came in at 35 million, that is lower benefit than we thought coming in because of the new mark to market that we achieved in Q3. But we have told you that we don't know how to project it, nor do we project it. And it's the same thing in Q4 that we do not predict new mark to market. So depending on what prices become 31st December, you could have a plus or minus there.

And then, in addition to that, you asked me a question on other, which was insurance. So we released approximately 40 to 50 million of benefits, which is a one-time benefit with some of our reserves in our captives that do not reverse in Q4. So I think I've answered most of your questions, underlying in our assumption also that China continues to buy, as Juan said. We'll have to see how much they end up buying. So that's something we'll have to work through. But overall, I would just say it's a strong market, constructive market, good execution. The fundamentals haven't changed. They will always be puts and takes depending on how the market behaves. But as Juan mentioned, our team is agile.

They know how to take advantage of these situations, and they will.

Thank you Matthew for the question. Of course, we're excited about the future of precision fermentation. We fundamentally believe that biology is going to play a big role in the future of food, and of course, we are a company dedicated to food and food in the world. As we get to that future that may be a little bit longer term or medium term, we want to make sure we're the risk it for investors, and then what we're doing is we're basing our initial steps on taking advantage of some of ADM strengths. One is we have fermentation capacity. Second is we have an integration of all our sites and customers and the supply chain. And third, we have a lot of available feed for our strengths.

So we're basing on that. And what we're doing is we're getting some sponsors in customers and applications to make sure that everything that we build, if we need to build the still finishing trains or finishing units that is supported by customer demand that we have. So those are the examples that I mentioned before, whether it's egg replacement or whether it's lamb meat replacement for pet food or whether it's whey protein. We still see the desire to have protein and consistent protein around the world. But we also see the desire to have high quality tail or products that don't depend on weather, products that don't are affected by plague. And I think that we see a future in which we can tailor made some of these molecules.

So again, I think that today, this opportunity is a cost. We are investing in it. Over the next two or three years, it will become profitable. And then probably between year five and year 10, it will become meaningful for ADM. And that's the planning horizon we have for precision fermentation.

Yeah, I think, uh, Matthew, I can't comment on our competitors. I would just say when you think about art and all business in total between both our wet mill and dry mills, the team did good execution, were able to capture the prices, good risk management. And then, of course, we expanded the program in 45d or that we have told you about. So all that put together helped us get a very strong quarter in carbs. It was offset partially by softness and liquid sweeteners that we have seen all year long. We have seen it last year too. Starches was pretty stable. Wheat volumes were stable, but they were offset a little bit by pricing because in a competitive environment.

And I think I've covered all of that. So yeah, overall, I would say Chris Cuddy and team did a good job of executing in ethanol and continuing to fight the market conditions in certain products that we have in the food shop.

Yeah. As you said, we are currently in contracting season. So it's a little bit early to draw conclusions. Negotiations are ongoing. We're probably going to have a better view the next time we talk. One thing, Puran, that I always remind people in these calls when I came to the company, there was this famous cliff in which all the contracts were negotiated at the same time. And then over the last five to 10 years, the team did a good job of creating a basket of contracts in which we don't have those cliffs. So to a certain degree, we're always in negotiating season. And we have a very close relationship with all of our customers. We understand their logistics and we understand their needs.

And that's where we're going. So I would say not a lot of clarity or details that I can bring right now, respecting that we're in the middle of some of those negotiations. I would say on the positive side, the business or in different side, the business has done a good job of continuing with the fight for the grind. We see biosolutions, applications are up, start being stabilized. So that gives some relief to our sweetness and starches markets that we have seen some of the volumes being down.

Listen, my experience, I've been here CEO through four administrations, if you will. So my experience is there is a reality behind the policies. And I think, you know, all the administrations tend to reflect that. There is a need for higher bio-fuse, there is a need for supporting demand for agriculture. So I don't expect the fundamental shift. I think that the more administrations bring clarity to market through 100 percent relocation of SREs or the more they can bring perspective for long-term, like at set three, the more they they incentivize a production and investments over time. So we always going to work closely with any administration to favor the U. S. , to favor the farmers in the U. S. , but also to favor the world.

And the world right now needs more energy. And we see the crisis that we have in refinery products and bringing bio-fuse. It's not only here in the U. S. , we're bringing it in the U. S. , with the bringing brought in in Vietnam, they're being brought in India, they're being brought in Indonesia, they're being brought in Brazil. So I think that this is more than a trend by an administration, it's more a trend of what we need as a society. An ADM will play their role in complying with that.

You're welcome.

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