Antero Midstream (AM) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Antero Midstream Corp. call on October 29, 2026.

Held
October 29, 2026
Length
10 min
Tone
Confident0.72
Analysts
1
Words
1,580
Q4 EBITDA growth
high single-digitquarter over quarter
2027 EBITDA growth
double-digityear over year
Incremental 2027 capital
over $100 millionregional demand projects
Eastside Express scope
$200 to $300 billionas stated on call
Eastside Express interconnects
roughly sevendownstream pipelines
North-South FID
2027potential timing
AR 2027 throughput guidance
4.5as referenced by management

Summary

Management framed the call around shifting from a gathering-focused platform toward owning regional infrastructure amid demand-led growth in Appalachia.

  • Q4 EBITDA is expected to reach a company record, reversing the analyst’s characterization of the quarter as soft.
  • Management said Eastside Express scope and timing were unchanged, while North-South planning has advanced toward a potential 2027 FID.
  • $100M2027 growth is expected from higher throughput and freshwater delivery, with more than $100 million of incremental project capital.

Guidance

  • High single-digit EBITDA growth Q4 quarter over quarter
  • Double-digit EBITDA growth 2027 year over year
  • $100MOver $100 million of incremental capital in 2027 for Eastside Express and other regional demand projects
  • North-South project FID potentially in 2027

What analysts pressed on

  • 01Eastside Express scope and capex: management said scope is unchanged and cited roughly seven downstream pipeline interconnects.
  • 02North-South project timing: management is assessing it now and said FID could occur in 2027.
  • 03EBITDA growth bridge: management pointed to throughput gains, two water projects, and higher freshwater deliveries.
  • 04Q4 performance: management rejected the description of softness and forecast a company-record EBITDA quarter.

Notable disclosures

  • Q4 EBITDA is expected to be an all-time company high by a considerable amount, despite curtailments and physical constraints.
  • Eastside Express was described as having roughly seven downstream pipeline interconnects, with late-2028 or 2029 timing unchanged.
  • Management said it is pursuing several billion dollars of potential regional infrastructure projects, including power opportunities.
  • $300BManagement cited Eastside Express scope at “$200 to $300 billion,” as stated on the call.

Risks raised

  • Approximately 10 BCF of curtailments affected third-quarter throughput.
  • Physical constraints and expected curtailments are weighing on throughput growth.
  • Over $100 million of incremental 2027 capital is planned for regional demand projects.
  • Large infrastructure opportunities require execution and investment before expected returns are realized.

Tone: Confident 0.72

Management was confident about record Q4 EBITDA and double-digit 2027 growth, while emphasizing substantial project opportunities and incremental capital needs.

Who spoke

Company

  • Dan KatzenbergVice President of Investor Relations
  • Michael KennedyChief Executive Officer and President
  • Justin AgnewChief Financial Officer
  • Unidentified Management

Analysts

  • John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:01

Greetings. Welcome to Ontario Midstream Corporation's third quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President of Investor Relations.

00:26

Dan KatzenbergVice President of Investor Relations

Thank you. You may now begin. Thank you for joining us for Intero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at interomidstream. com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures. Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Ventura Midstream, Justin Agnew, CFO of Ventura Midstream, and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Ventura Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

01:07

Michael KennedyChief Executive Officer and President

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide number three. Ventura Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects, and our new regional pipeline business unit. Turning first to water, two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Intero midstream, supporting two drilled but uncompleted growth paths. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth, net of expected curtailments, are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter over quarter. We also will remain on track to complete the HG water system integration by year end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition.

Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration. Looking ahead to 2027, these growth paths and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit we continued construction on the Eastside Express Since announcing the project last quarter we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparty seeking access to ARs and natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia. Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities, and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Ontario Midstream now has the scale balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first north-south directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers, and integrated power opportunities. As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers.

This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

03:55

Justin AgnewChief Financial Officer

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights in slide number four. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17% respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 BCF of curtailments during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth in flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved. I'll conclude our prepared remarks on slide number five, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years.

As of September 30th, our leverage was 2.8 times, below our three times target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition Since then we integrated five acquisitions totaling billion invested over billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over a BCF a day, and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to Eastside Express and other regional gas demand projects. Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set Mike referenced in his comments while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation, and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia. With that operator, we are ready to begin queuing.

Questions and answers

06:05

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, you may press star 1 from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please for a poll for questions. Thank you. Thank you. And the first question comes from the line of John McKay with Goldman Sachs. Please receive your questions.

06:35

John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, team. Thank you for the time. Appreciate the updates on EastSatExpress and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total capex, and then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting. Thanks.

06:58

Unidentified Management

Yeah, really no change to the scope of that project called $200 to $300 billion. Again, that's going to be roughly seven interconnects with downstream pipelines, really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change to that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late 28, 2029 timeframe. Yeah, and then on the north-south, I don't know if you, John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural, very opportunistic for us to build a north-south from our field up into that area And maybe just any timeline on that Yeah over the next couple of years We actually scoping it right now having a little initial capital right now assessing it, but I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

07:54

John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

All right, that's clear. Thank you. The second one from me, I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. you guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else. Thank you.

08:20

Unidentified Management

Yeah, I don't think fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then 27 will have 10% on that. You saw ARs guide into 15 to 20 BCF, but it's still at 4.3 BCFE versus the 4.234, I believe it was, for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number, so you have a little more on that on growth for AM. Then you have those two water projects, the completion of the ducts on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single digit EBITDA growth quarter over quarter. And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput.

And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run two completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double digit EBITDA growth year over year 27 over 26.

09:31

John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Clear. Understood. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

09:35

Thank you. If you'd like to ask questions, it's time to press star one. Thank you. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing and final remarks.

09:55

Unidentified Management

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

10:06

This will conclude today's conference. We disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.

Done reading? Open Antero Midstream with the chart, filings, and estimates next to this call.

About this transcript

The summary, guidance, analyst focus, and tone are automated and should be checked against the call before being relied on. Names and figures can be misheard. Listen to the replay.