Aviat Networks (AVNW) Q4 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Aviat Networks, Inc. call on August 27, 2026.

Held
August 27, 2026
Length
41 min
Tone
Confident0.72
Analysts
5
Words
4,937
FY27 revenue guidance
$455-$470 millionfull fiscal year
FY27 adjusted EBITDA
$50-$55 millionfull fiscal year
MDU order FY27
$25-$30 millionall revenue expected in FY27
Annual MDU opportunity
~$100 milliondepends on subscribers and share
EMEA FY26 revenue growth
33%fourth-quarter growth was 53%
FY26 year-end NOLs
over $420 millionminimal cash taxes expected

Summary

Management framed FY27 as back-half weighted, with MDU deployment and pricing actions offsetting component inflation and cautious BEAD assumptions.

  • Q2 is expected to begin the MDU ramp after September site-readiness work and component ordering.
  • Mid-30s gross margin was characterized as aspirational, despite expected improvement from pricing actions.
  • BEAD became tactical, but meaningful revenue is not expected until the December quarter.

Guidance

  • $470MFY27 revenue $455-$470 million
  • $55MFY27 adjusted EBITDA $50-$55 million
  • Q1 FY27 revenue lowest quarter
  • Q2 and Q4 FY27 revenue peaks
  • Q3 FY27 revenue above Q1
  • FY27 BEAD contribution small and conservative
  • FY27 LEO contribution none

What analysts pressed on

  • 01MDU timing: site readiness and component orders should drive the main ramp in Q2, with possible September revenue.
  • 02Gross margin: mid-30s was called aspirational, with pricing actions expected to improve margins from Q2 onward.
  • 03BEAD timing: only a small contribution is included, with first meaningful revenue expected in December.
  • 04LEO opportunity: satellite trials are underway, but no LEO revenue is included in guidance.
  • 05Apriza routers: initial orders exist across three regions, though government purchasing cycles remain lengthy.
  • 06Competitive exits: microwave replacement opportunities may accelerate in March and June after 6-to-18-month conversion cycles.

Notable disclosures

  • $100M~$100 million annual MDU opportunity depends on subscriber growth and AVIAT’s competitive share; sole sourcing is not expected.
  • 25 MDU markets are now operating or scheduled, versus 7 and 11-to-13 markets previously discussed.
  • 45%45% of U.S. business comes from private networks, versus 55% from service providers or mobile operators.
  • The Middle East customer disruption has reversed, with demand and supply described as steady state.
  • The company expects greater Tier 1 interest globally because of current competitive dynamics.

Risks raised

  • Component shortages affect memory, PCBs, capacitors, and FPGAs, while abrupt spot-market inflation pressures margins.
  • MDU upside depends on subscriber growth, site readiness, and AVIAT’s share against competitors.
  • BEAD timing remains uncertain, with guidance assuming only a small contribution.
  • Government purchasing cycles could delay Apriza LTE router adoption despite initial orders.
  • New microwave wins following a competitor exit may take 6-to-18 months to convert.

Tone: Confident 0.72

The outlook is constructive around MDU, private networks, and international growth, but supply inflation, execution timing, and cautious BEAD assumptions temper optimism.

Who spoke

Company

  • Andrew FredricksonInvestor Relations
  • Peter SmithChief Executive Officer
  • Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

Analysts

  • Jaeson SchmidtAnalyst, Lake Street Capital Markets
  • Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley
  • Theodore O'NeillAnalyst, Litchfield Hills Research
  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst
  • ChristianAnalyst, Craig-Hallum

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Welcome to AVIAT NETWORKS, fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andrew Fredrickson, Vice President Corporate Finance. You may begin.

00:23

Andrew FredricksonInvestor Relations

Thank you, and welcome to AVIAT NETWORKS' fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results conference call and webcast. You can find our press release and updated investor presentation in the IR section of our website at www. avionnetworks. com, along with a replay of today's call. With me today are Pete Smith, AVIAT's President and CEO, who will begin with opening remarks on the company's fiscal quarter, followed by Andy Schmidt, CFO, to review financial results for the quarter. Pete will then provide closing remarks on AVIAT's strategy and outlook. As a reminder, during today's call and webcast, management may make forward-looking statements regarding AVIAT's business, including, but not limited to, statements relating to fiscal guidance, financial projections, business drivers, new products and expansions, the economic activity in different regions.

These and other forward-looking statements reflect the company's opinions only as of the date of this call and webcast and involve assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements expressed or implied on this call can be found in our most recent filings with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or make public any revision of these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

Additionally, during today's call and webcast, management will reference both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our press release, which is available in the IR section of our website, at www. aviatnetworks. com and financial tables therein, which include a gap to non-gap reconciliation and other supplemental financial information. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to AVIAT's President and CEO, Pete Smith. Pete?

02:27

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Thanks, Andrew. Let's review the highlights from the fourth quarter. This marks a strong end to AVIAT's fiscal 2026. Full-year revenue was $440 million, up 1.2% versus the prior fiscal year. This represents our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth. AVIAT is the only microwave company to achieve this growth during the last six years. I would also like to note that this was the first time in over a decade that AVIAT has had all four quarters in the fiscal year with at least $100 million in revenue. This is a tremendous achievement, and I would like to thank all of our customers, supplier partners, and employees in making this possible.

Since FY23, we have been expanding outside of our core microwave business with a focus on mission-critical access. In FY26, sales of non-microwave, i. e. mission-critical access, products grew significantly versus FY25 and is the result of AVIAT strategic decisions and execution years prior, allowing us to diversify our business and gain access to larger, faster-growing segments. We are glad to see this strategy coming to fruition.

Now, I'd like to talk more about recent developments in our end markets. In the U. S. , strong quarterly sales and bookings set the stage for an exciting year ahead. We see several growth vectors aligning for AVIAT.

First, we believe our multi-dwelling unit, MDU, opportunity will deliver meaningful revenues to AVIAT this year. We announced an order received from an existing customer in the range of $25 to $30 million. We expect all of this revenue in fiscal 2027. The AVIAT team continues to work to win additional markets and adjacent opportunities to increase our capture rate in fiscal 2027 and beyond. Secondly, we see private networks continuing to be a core foundation for AVIAT's growth. In state and local public safety networks, AVIAT remains the leader and continues to pursue opportunities for more share of demand. According to industry research, city and state government budgets are expected to grow 6.4 and 4.2 percent, respectively. Video-intensive applications like drones and body cameras, as well as other data-intensive tools, drive increased bandwidth demand within private networks, which necessitates more or upgraded microwave links.

As highlighted in our last earnings call, utility private networks are poised for growth. Power infrastructure and grid connectivity are emerging as key bottlenecks to AI infrastructure deployment. This build-out requires secure, highly reliable communication networks to connect and manage grid assets. AVIAT participates here, thanks to our portfolio of industry-leading solutions geared towards utilities. Our microwave radio portfolio, Apriza, SCADA radios, and LTE 5G routers, combined with our network management software and our health assurance and frequency assurance offerings, provides utilities a one-stop shop for its network connectivity build-out and management needs. With the SpaceX IPO and the announcement of a potential fourth cellular network in the U. S. , there is a significant amount of investor interest in low-Earth orbit, or LEO, networks.

We believe that there is a valuable niche to fill in the communication space, specifically around nomadic or very remote locations. Therefore, we see the technology as being complementary and not necessarily competitive with AVIAT. We see the following for LEO and AVIAT. One, AVIAT's core business is largely unthreatened. Two, there is an idea of SpaceX building out a terrestrial network. While the architecture of that conceptual network is not fully formed, should this materialize, AVIAT is well positioned if and when the architecture requires terrestrial backhaul. Three, most exciting is the new functionality that LEO brings. LEO offers redundant communications. This is most valued by private network customers, and we are seeing opportunities for AVIAT through integration with microwave and cellular router solutions.

For microwave networks, satellite provides a low-cost, easy-to-deploy backup path for critical remote sites. For cellular routers and public safety and fleet applications, satellite fills LTE and 5G coverage gaps with automatic failover. In both cases, AVIAT's opportunity is to deliver an integrated solution that improves resilience while simplifying deployment, management, and operations for our customers. AVIAT's customers are engaged in trials to demonstrate the value proposition of this redundancy. Please see slide 11 in our investor presentation to get a picture of the ongoing trials and connectivity solution we bring.

Moving on to international. AVIAT's business has seen particular traction in the EMEA region where revenues were up 53% in the fourth quarter and up 33% for all of fiscal 2026. This growth has been driven in part by recent international private network wins, including with defense customers, including BlackNet, as well as energy firms. As we pursue more such private network business, we see this segment is growing, a growing portion of our international business in the future.

Moving on to supply chain. Like others in the technology hardware space, AVIAT has not been immune from component shortages and cost inflation. Specifically, we are most focused on securing supplies for memory, printed circuit boards or PCBs, capacitors, and FPGAs. We will be opening the playbook we used during COVID supply chain crisis to secure favorable placement and allocations among our suppliers. Although AVIAT has been able to manage through these current allocations and shortages with our inventory and safety stock, we have also had some headwinds to our gross margins from component cost inflation. We plan to pass along these price increases to our customers to help offset these rising costs.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Andy to go through the financial results.

09:56

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

Thanks, Pete. I'll review some of the key fiscal year 2026 and fourth quarter results. Please note that our detailed financials can be found in our press release and all comparisons discussed are between fourth quarter fiscal year 26 and fourth quarter fiscal year 25, unless otherwise noted For the fourth quarter we reported tortum revenue of million as compared to million in the same period last year an increase of 4 Revenues for the 12-month period were $439.7 million versus $434.6 million the year-ago 12-month period. Okay. North America, which comprised 56.5% of our total revenues for the quarter, was $68.3 million. This was up 10.3 million, or 17.8%, versus the year-ago period.

These results were complemented by a limited set of deployments for a North American-based MDU project in the quarter. However, international revenues, which made up 43.5% of total revenues, were $52.6 million for the quarter. For fiscal 2026, North American revenues were $220 million, up 6% versus fiscal year 25. International revenues were $219.6 million in fiscal 26, compared to $227 million in fiscal 25. EMEA showed solid results for fiscal 26, while APAC stabilized. We feel our international business overall is poised for growth in fiscal 27.

Gross margins in the fourth quarter were 30.8% on a gap basis and 30.9% on a non-gap basis. This compares to 34.2% gap and 34.7% non-gap in the prior year. The year-over-year change in gross margin is typically due to volumes, regional and product mix, so on. That said, as Pete noted earlier, our current period gross margin was negatively affected by component shortages and associated price inflation.

For fiscal 2026, gross margins were 31.5% on a gap basis and 31.8% on a non-gap basis. This compares to 32.1% GAAP and 32.8% non-GAAP in Fiscal 25. Fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses were $31.4 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses, which exclude the impact of restructuring charges, share-based compensation, and other costs were $27.3 million. For fiscal 26, GAAP operating expenses were $119.1 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses were $109.2 million.

This is versus $128.9 million GAAP and $113.5 million non-GAAP in fiscal 25, a decrease of $9.8 million and $4.3 million, respectively. This is the result of the entire management team diligently managing costs, continuously reviewing corporate needs, and driving process efficiency efforts.

Fourth quarter operating income was $5.8 million on a GAAP basis and $10 million on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to $8.9 million GAAP and $12.9 million non-GAAP in the year-ago period. For fiscal 26, GAAP operating income was $19.2 million, up $8.7 million versus the last fiscal year. Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP operating income was $30.6 million, up $1.5 million, or 5.2% versus the last fiscal year. The fourth quarter non-GAAP tax benefit was $0.5 million. As a reminder, as a fiscal 2026 year end, the company has over $420 million of net operating losses, or NOLs, that will continue to generate shareholder value via minimal cash tax payments for the foreseeable future. Fourth quarter gap net loss was $1.3 million, and non-gap net income was a positive $8.3 million, which excludes restructuring charges, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation, interest and other income, other non-recurring expenses, and the non-cash tax provision.

The fourth quarter gap loss per share was $0.10 on a fully diluted basis, and non-gap earnings per share came in at a positive $0.64 on a fully diluted basis.

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $11.9 million, or 9.8% of revenues. For the fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA was $36.7 million. Moving on to the balance sheet. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the fourth quarter were $72.8 million. Our outstanding debt was $97 million, bringing the net debt position to $24.2 million.

AVIAT made continued improvements in its balance sheet. Unbilled receivables were lower for the third consecutive quarter. The fourth quarter balance was $3.1 million lower compared to the fiscal 2026 third quarter ending balance. This brings our total unbilled receivables balance to $82.1 million. Inventories were also lower sequentially by $3.6 million, bringing our inventory balance to $69 million. For the full fiscal year, AVIAT generated cash from operations of $13.6 million.

Combined with the other balance sheet improvements, this is good progress for shareholders. Other points to make, AVIAT used $2.2 million to repurchase approximately 131,000 shares in the quarter, and an average price of $1,655 per share.

Finally, we are pleased to share that in the context of our control environment, we have fully remediated our past five material weaknesses. Rest assured, AVIAT's core value of continuous improvement is still in play, and we will continue to work to further strengthen our foundation.

With that, I'll turn it back to Pete for some final comments.

17:05

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Thanks, Andy. Regarding our fiscal 2027 guidance, we are establishing our outlook as follows. Full-year revenues to be in the range of $455 to $470 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $50 to $55 million. Note that our guidance is full fiscal year. Some additional color on seasonality. Based on our backlog and current outlook, the first quarter will be the foundation on which AVIAT's revenue builds throughout fiscal 2027. Additionally, we expect the second half of fiscal 2027 to have higher overall revenues versus the first half of fiscal 2027. See slide 23 in the investor presentation for a view of the seasonality AVIAT has typically experienced and for use in your models.

With that, operator, let's open up for questions.

Questions and answers

18:05

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question at this time, you will need to press star 11 on your touchtone telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, simply press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the KNA roster.

18:20

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Our first question, coming from the line of Scott Sealy with Rod Capital, Yolanus Malfin. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Nice job on the quarter. Also nice to see the balance sheet improvements and the cleanup of the material weaknesses.

18:41

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Hey, maybe just to dive in, I wonder if you'd give us an idea of the breakdown in North America between carrier contribution and private networks, and then specifically looking into the September quarter and how we ramp up from an MDU contribution standpoint. Pete, how is that shaping up just in terms of the context of how we should think about the flow of that into the course of fiscal 27?

So, you know, we ended the year with record backlog up 14%. A lot of that was work throughout the year that landed in the May-June timeframe. There's this pervasive component availability. So when we said in the script that the Q1 is going to be a foundation, we think given the timing of our wins and given the supply chain ramp up, We think if you put a revenue profile together, Q1 will be the lowest. Q2 and Q4 will be peaks, and Q3 should be higher than Q1. And then with respect to the, you know, overall, I don't have the U. S. breakdown in front of me, but we're about 45% private networks, 55% service providers or mobile network operators.

20:25

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

And I think that the you know I give a qualitative statement I would say the U has more private networks than the overall lobbyist So I think that gives you a vector on that Scott Okay thank you Pete just to clarify though on the MDU front do you expect contribution in the September quarter or is there a lot of pre-deployment activity ongoing, more engineering and otherwise, and we should expect to ramp up into the second half of the year or second quarter?

21:01

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah, so we think the ramp up is going to occur in second quarter. There is a chance that we get some in the September quarter. And let me just give a little more color on this. We completed more proof of concepts in a variety of markets, and we believe that the customer has moved us ahead in the supplier pecking order where we think we're established as the preferred vendor. So what we really need to do is get that site readiness over the hump in the September quarter, get all of our components on order, and enjoy the win in the December quarter.

21:53

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Great. Thank you. And two other quick ones, if I could.

21:56

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

Just on the satellite LEO opportunity, I'm wondering if you're actually starting to see interesting contribution I will now turn the call over to management for the AVIAT NETWORKS, INC. Yeah, in terms of gross margins, as Pete commented on revenue, Q1 is going to be our building block, and we go up from there.

22:40

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

So we, is, let's call it the foundation or lowest part of the year. You know, it's going to be affected by lower volume, of course. Pete did talk to, in his prepared remarks, strategies that we're deploying to offset the component inflation, if you will. So those are going to be more realized in Q2 and going forward, not in Q1. But again, we do have plans, and we expect Q2, Q3, and Q4 to have more upward pressure on gross margin.

23:12

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

And there's no Leo in the guide.

23:20

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Thank you.

23:22

Our next question in Q, coming from the line of Christian Swapwood, Greg Callum, Helen Smalton.

23:28

ChristianAnalyst, Craig-Hallum

Great. Congrats on the solid quarter. I'm wondering if you could give us an update on your large European competitor who's exiting their microwave business, we believe, by the end of this calendar year. Are you seeing any business benefit from that currently, and would you anticipate or see an increased dialogue that you think will benefit you in your next fiscal year?

24:05

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah. A competitor of our European competitor has communicated that their pipeline of opportunities is improving, And I would suggest that the same thing is transpiring with us. To convert a microwave network, it's a six to 18 month proposition. And the good news for us was the announcement was made November of 2025. And, you know, immediately after that, I think AVIAT and all of our non-for-sale competitors created a pipeline and are pursuing that. And, you know, I would say we've had kind of normal course of business wins.

And I would say that our competitors have probably had that as well, where networks get exchanged at a low level. I think the possibility for this to improve is probably in the March and June quarters for AVIAT, as well as the competitors that have been, you know, working over the, you know, what will be a period of a year, year and a half to convert the uncertainty to wins.

25:34

ChristianAnalyst, Craig-Hallum

Thank you. And then as it relates to, you know, BEAD, is there, there's been a lot of fluctuations of people tied to that, and just wondering what your current thoughts, I think before we thought maybe some things would start in fiscal year 27, but really had more of a multi-year outlook. I'm just wondering if there's any update on your current thoughts there.

26:05

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah, you know, in front of me, we've got quotes out to our customers. We're working to turn those quotes into business, so it's becoming tactical rather than theoretical. And I would also say that we still believe it to be a three-year impact. And we – our estimate is in the December quarter, it should have the first real impact to our revenue.

26:45

ChristianAnalyst, Craig-Hallum

Okay, fantastic. And then lastly, regarding your belief that you're the preferred vendor and showing proof of concepts of different, you know, applications on the MDU ramp, appreciate the $25 to $30 million significant order in hand. Should we anticipate that there could be more significant orders as we go through fiscal year 27, or is that yet too early?

27:24

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

I don't want you to anticipate, but there could be. How about that? Trying to split the middle there. But it's a fair question, and we're hopeful. Let's not put it in the model, but that's what we're working towards.

27:43

ChristianAnalyst, Craig-Hallum

Fantastic.

27:43

Do other questions. Thank you.

27:43

Jaeson SchmidtAnalyst, Lake Street Capital Markets

Our next question in queue coming from the lineup, Jason Smith with Lake Street. Your line is now open. Thanks, guys. You take my questions. Just following up on Christian's last question on the MDU opportunity and potential for more orders, can you help us size the potential follow-on orders, or how are you looking at this opportunity? sort of in the intermediate term here.

28:13

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah, so I think, you know, what's really critical to driving the size of the opportunity is subscriber growth, and we're in the early innings of the subscriber growth, And the more subscribers that come online for this Tier 1, the bigger the opportunity. I mean, for, you know, the last time we talked, we sized this as an eight-figure opportunity, and we put that in our 8K during our quiet period. We would say that, just that we think it's going to get bigger. So then the next question is, does it cross the barrier for nine figures? I don't know. I think the total annual opportunity is in the $100 million neighborhood. And that's predicated on, one, the customer achieving their subscriber growth metrics, and two, our share versus the competitive share.

So, if you want to look at this as what could it be, what could it all be, I would say we hit the $100 million figure. The precursors to that are the market opportunity hits the $100 million level. How that parses out between AVIAT and the competition, it's looking more favorable, but I don't see in any situation where we'd be sole source. And then what's probably more important is how many subscribers come on to those MDU units.

30:10

Jaeson SchmidtAnalyst, Lake Street Capital Markets

Okay, that's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, can you update us on the APRESA router funnel and what you're seeing and expectations for fiscal 27?

30:22

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

So we're not going to break out guidance specifically for Apriza. The Apriza business on the utility front, which is why we bought it and continue to enjoy it, is performing well. Well, we've talked in the past about the LTE router and basically putting this router into public safety or police cars. What I can say is that we have initial orders in the US Europe and Latin America It still relatively small and there a long lead site a long kind of runway to get government agencies into the purchasing funnel But I would also say that our performance in the mobile cellular router sector is we're going up against cradle point. And the reason we have those initial orders and significant engagements is because we have a compelling value proposition that customers like, and it's just going to take time, but we believe that it will happen.

31:41

Jaeson SchmidtAnalyst, Lake Street Capital Markets

Gotcha. Thanks a lot, guys.

31:44

Thank you. Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1.

31:45

Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley

Our next question coming from the line of Dave Kang with B. Riley. Yolan is now open. Good morning. Thank you. First question is just wondering how much regarding that, you know, Middle East projects that were delayed last quarter, how much of that was captured in the fourth quarter?

32:11

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think most of it, Dave, most of it was recaptured.

32:21

Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley

Got it. And did that mix also play into that gross margin? I know you talked about supply chain headwind, but also the mix?

32:31

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

But primarily the component inflation has affected this quarter. MIX is pretty much representative. As said in prepared remarks, America is worth about 56.5%, which is fairly typical.

32:49

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Just to add to that, Dave, right? So the nature of the inflation in the component environment is sometimes there's spot markets, sometimes it's, you know, prices go up even after you make the order. And, you know, in the next few weeks, we're going to go out to our customers for more price. So, unfortunately, the nature of the inflation is a little more abrupt than typical. So, we got impacted by that abruptness, and we're going to work to offset that inflation. I think we should get some improvement in the December quarter, and then the back half, it should be better still.

33:39

Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley

So, by second half, can we expect, you know, like mid-30s in terms of gross margin expectations?

33:50

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

That would be aspirational. A lot of the growth, again, is coming out of MDU, as we've talked to in these other markets, and that has pretty much what we call more of a middle of our product strategy profile. So, again, we entered the year at about 32%. That's a safe harbor in terms of how we operate, just looking at historical. Again, as we talk to these different strategies, we expect some upward pressure, so that's good. But I wouldn't necessarily go as high as what you're suggesting as we speak today.

34:30

Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley

Got it. And my last question is regarding your fiscal 27 revenue outlook. Just wondering if any Bede factored into that outlook?

34:45

Andy SchmidtChief Financial Officer

A small amount, Dave, relatively conservative. So if Bede kicks in, we will revisit the guidance.

34:56

Dave KangAnalyst, B. Riley

Got it. Thank you.

34:57

Thank you.

34:57

Theodore O'NeillAnalyst, Litchfield Hills Research

Our next question, coming from the line of Theodore O'Neill with Litchfield Hills Research. Yelon is now open. Thank you, and congratulations on the good quarter. I want to also follow up on the MDU opportunity. Can you tell us, I'm sure you can't mention them by name, but can you tell us about the type of customers that are driving the MDU opportunity?

35:21

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Well, you know, we've disclosed, and a lot of industry folks, we've disclosed that it's a U. S. Tier 1 that has access to 39 gigahertz spectrum, so that narrows it down. And, you know, the field installers have leaked this, but it's now for us to disclose.

35:46

Theodore O'NeillAnalyst, Litchfield Hills Research

So, and their customers' customers are apartment dwellers that, you know, typically the profile is they skew younger, lots of remote work from home that require bandwidth beyond what's economically delivered today.

Okay, and Pete, last quarter you talked about war-induced pushouts of about $9 million. And you already said that part of that had come into Q4. Did that all make in, or are you still experiencing some kind of war-induced issues out there?

36:26

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Actually, so the customer was not overdue, but that was in the Middle East, war-induced issue. And we would say that they're steady state that that problem has reversed. And I would say our demand in that customer base and our supply is at steady state.

36:53

Theodore O'NeillAnalyst, Litchfield Hills Research

Okay. And finally, on the range of revenue guidance, there's a range of $15 million. Can you talk about what would make it at the high end or the low end of that, sort of the give and take in that?

37:09

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah. I'd like to talk about how to make it to get to the higher end, more MDU, and how does that, one, there's more subscriber growth to share gain versus the competition. Two is, you know, our, you know, de minimis modeling of Bede. So, if Bede kicks in the way we wished it would have kicked in over the last five years, then we will revisit guidance. And then three would be private networks. And, you know, Christian asked a question about the competitive dynamics in private networks. We think we're well-positioned if some of those convert, or if private networks, the APRISA LTE router opportunity is in there. If either of those two things happen, that'll pop up our private network.

And then lastly, we see some, given the competitive dynamics globally, we have more Tier 1 interest than normal, new Tier 1. So that would be the fourth potential lever to move us from, let's say, the midpoint to the high end. So we have four possibilities there.

38:34

Theodore O'NeillAnalyst, Litchfield Hills Research

Yep, thank you to you.

38:35

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Okay, thanks, Pete.

38:38

Thank you.

38:38

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Citizens Bank

Our next question coming from the line of Rasmkang with Citizens Bank, Kielanis Nalvin. Great. Thank you for taking my question. Hey, Andy and Pete, nice close to the year.

Regarding the historical revenue pattern at 48 to 52% for the back half of the year for your guidance for next year, Are you looking at something more towards the range of 40-60, or could it be more pronounced than that?

39:13

Andrew FredricksonInvestor Relations

Hey, Russ, this is Andrew Fredrickson. Yeah, so we mentioned that the second half of the year would be a little bit more back half-weighted.

I would think you could think about it incrementally more than maybe where it's been historically, So maybe it's something closer to 45, 55. But, you know, we'll certainly continue to keep you updated as we advance through the year. But if you look at the investor slide number 23 in our investor presentation, you know, we have historical, you know, numbers over the last couple of fiscal years. I would say at a minimum, that's a good kind of guidance level from a seasonality perspective. But again, maybe you have a couple more percentage points in the back half.

39:59

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

Yeah. Slide 23 is the model that we're signing up to.

40:06

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Citizens Bank

Sounds good. And then regarding the MDU opportunity, understand that it's hinging on the subscriber growth there. Just curious if the number of markets that you're operating there has grown or sustained from what you've talked about in the previous quarter.

40:29

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

I think we're slated or are in 25 markets, and if we roll back the clock, we were 1, 7, 11 to 13. So now I think we're approaching the 25 market level.

40:54

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Citizens Bank

That's great. Thanks.

40:57

Thank you. And I'm showing up for the questions in the Q&AQ at this time.

41:03

Peter SmithChief Executive Officer

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Pete Smith with any closing remarks. It's an exciting time for AVIAT. Thanks, everyone, for joining. We look forward to again updating you in November.

41:13

Thanks. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

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