Carpenter Technology (CRS) Q1 2027 earnings call transcript

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpinter Technology earnings conference call for the fiscal 2027 first quarter and its September 30th, 2026. This call is also being broadcast over the internet, along with presentation slides. For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement. Speakers on the call today are Tony Tain, chairman and chief executive officer, and Tim Lane, senior vice president and chief financial officer. Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpinter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on form 10K for the year ended June 30th, 2026, and the exhibits attached to that filing.

Please also note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discussed the sales or revenue, that reference excludes their charge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, including special items and sales exclusive. I will now turn the call over to Tony.

Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone. I will start on slide four with a review of our safety performance. We ended the first quarter with a total case incident rate of 1.7. We continue to invest in programs for employees with a focus on identifying potential risks and minimizing the severity of injuries. With our focus on leading indicators, we expect to see continued progress on our ultimate goal, a zero-injury workplace. Let's turn to slide five for an overview of our first quarter performance. Our first quarter performance was a solid start to fiscal year 2027. The quarter's primary talking points fit into a tight, simple narrative.

One, record first quarter operating income. Up 28% over the first quarter of last year. The record results were driven by productivity improvement, discipline mix management, and continued realization of pricing actions. Two, SEO segment adjusted operating margin matched the record from last quarter at 37.7%. This is an impressive feat with fewer operating days and increased preventive maintenance activity versus last quarter. And to be clear, we do not do this margin level as the peak as we expect strengthening demand, productivity, and pricing actions to drive us to higher levels. Three, bookings continue to increase. Specifically, our bookings for customers in the commercial aerospace supply chain were up again sequentially and up 25% year over year. Importantly, the most talked about aerospace sub-markets, distribution, and structural were up 23% sequentially and 49% year over year.

And aerospace engine bookings continue to increase sequentially. It's important to note that we and many others believe the industry is just at the beginning of this super cycle with even stronger demand anticipated in the coming quarters of fiscal year 2027 and beyond. As an extra data point, we have numerous customers who have confirmed that they are ordering at a level that doesn't even support current aerospace OEM build rates, let alone the projected future build rate increases the industry is planning for. This is an important point because it supports the fact that bookings will need to continue to increase significantly in the near future to support demand.

Four, pricing continues to be a tailwind with strengthening demand and an expanding supply demand gap for nickel super outoys are pricing for both LTA and non-LTA business remains elevated and consistently increasing. And five, strong financial targets for fiscal year 2027 and 2029. Then we are focused on overachieving. More on that on my closing slide. That is the summary of the course performance and current state of the business. All five primary areas of interest for our shareholders are currently flashing green and exhibit clear positive signals.

Consistent record operating income performance, strong operating margins with levers to expand further, accelerating demand across key in-use markets, continuing benefit from pricing actions and an industry leading financial outlook with opportunity to overachieve.

Let me turn to slide six and a closer look at first quarter sales and market conditions. In the first quarter fiscal year 2027, our total sales excluding raw material surcharge were down 7% sequentially and up 5% year over year. As expected, the sequential sales decline was driven by the planned maintenance outages we discussed on the last earnings call.

I will focus my comments today on the aerospace and defense in-use market as it accounts for the majority of our sales. Sales in the aerospace and defense in-use market were down 5% sequentially and up 10% year over year. Again, this sequential decline was expected and reflects the impact of our planned maintenance outages. For more sub-market sales detailed, I will share the following.

Arrow engine sales sequential change was a bit better than the overall aerospace and defense average. Aerospace fasteners was at bit worse, although it was the second highest sales quarter on record, second only to the previous quarter. Aerospace structural and distribution sub-markets was roughly flat to a strong previous quarter and the defense sub-market was down sequentially due primarily to lack of clear funding. I will talk more about this a bit later.

It is important to note that any time in the aerospace market is still only in the early stages of a large ramp and during a quarter when we had significant planned outages, we posted our second highest quarter of commercial aerospace sales on record and delivered a record first quarter operating income. As we build on this strong quarterly performance, let me provide you with some color on how we see the near term future unfolding, how current bookings are taking shape and what our customers are telling us right now.

Some have worried that macro events like the Iran conflict, increasing jet fuel prices and rising ticket prices will dampen travel demand and thus the overall aerospace industry. But to date the industry has been resilient as airlines are still reporting strong demand and air traffic is up 14% quarter over quarter. MRO activity is expected to continue to grow due to the overall demand environment along with the large number of engines approaching their first shop visits. Airbus and Boeing continue to ramp production with backlogs now over 16,000 planes.

That's more than 10 years of production. The industry is projecting approximately 1400 to 1500 new airplane builds in calendar year 2026 and they want to go higher with target rates above 2100. That's a 50% increase above the current year rate. Repeat a 50% increase above the current year rate. So clearly we are still in the early stages of this ramp with significant growth ahead of us. We do not have any customers talking to us about slowing down or about concerns over aerospace market growth in the future. Discussions are only about what pace of growth they will realize. A key development this week was the FAA approving the Boeing 737 MAX 10. This model is strategically important since it is the largest 737 variant and roughly 30% of Boeing's backlog.

This provides another positive accelerant to the demand signal for the aerospace supply chain as production of this model ramps. Our quarterly bookings or order intake rate is an important indicator of the expanding growth. As I mentioned earlier, the aerospace distribution and structural sub-market bookings were up 23% sequentially and 49% year over year. Our aerospace distribution customers in general are reporting that their backlogs are growing with incoming bookings exceeding buildings. Their confidence is growing and they see solid double-digit growth in calendar year 2027 and even higher growth rates in calendar year 2028. Our aerospace engine bookings continue to increase up 10% sequentially and 22% year over year. Our aerospace engine customers remain very busy and their demand outlooks for calendar years 2027 and 2028 continue to strengthen as OEMs increase ordering activities.

In addition, we are receiving emergency orders in this sub-market and we expect those to increase as the supply chain ramps and the need for reliable material supply becomes even more critical. Aerospace faster bookings were down sequentially as it is normal for quarterly bookings to be inconsistent in this sub-market. Our aerospace faster customers continue to tell us that their activity has not yet fully caught up to current aircraft build rates supporting further growth as ordering catches up with underlying demand. Turning last to the sub-market where we see a stark contrast between in-demand and our direct customer behavior.

Bookings were down on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The disconnect between demand and supply chain activity is driven by funding challenges as our direct customers are not seeing the flow of funds required to place orders aligned with the Department of War needs. Given our position as a critical supplier across multiple defense programs such as the next generation fixed wing rotary craft and missiles and munitions platforms, we have seen a significant uptick in direct engagement from the Department of War and OEMs as customers prepare for future needs.

As an example, over the last quarter the Navy selected Boeing to build its next generation FAXX fighter. We are already engaged with the supply chain on the design of critical elements for this fighter and corporate technology will support critical applications and have meaningful material content on this platform. Overall, the message is crystal clear. The defense industry will need significantly more material to support their goals. We, along with the industry, budgets can be clarified. We anticipate a rush for material with significant emergency orders driving significant growth in this sub-market. It is clear from my comments that the key demand indicators, including higher bookings, growing customer backlogs, and increasing urgency for material, all point toward continued demand acceleration across our highest value in used markets.

And in this accelerating demand environment, we remain focused on execution to realize the high margin, high growth profit opportunity ahead of us. I will take a closer look at our outlook on the last slide. But first, I will turn it over to Tim for a review of the financials.

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. Starting with the income statement summary on Flight 8, net sales excluding surcharge increased 5% year over year and declined 7% sequentially. The sequential decline primarily reflected planned first quarter downtime for preventative maintenance as we discussed last quarter. Improved productivity, products mix optimization efforts, and pricing actions partially offset the impact of reduced operating time.

Gross profit was 256.3 million, up 18% year over year and down 5% sequentially. Sailing general and administrative where SG&A expenses were 59.9 million, down 3.2 million year over year and down 2.1 sequentially, primarily due to lower variable compensation accruals. SG&A includes corporate costs of 26.1 million compared with 28.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and 26.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.

We expect second quarter fiscal year 2027 corporate costs of approximately 28 to 29 million. Operating income was 196.4 million, up 28% year over year and down 5% sequentially. As Tony noted, this was a first quarter record and provided a strong foundation for the rest of fiscal year 2027. Our effective tax rate was 15.5%. Similar to the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting tax benefits associated with the besting of certain equity awards.

For fiscal year 2027, we expect the effective tax rate will be near the low end of our previously provided range of 20 to 22%. The looted earnings per share for the first quarter were $3.25, turning to our segment results starting with SAO on slide 9. First quarter net sales excluding surcharge for $573.5 million. Sales increased 7% year over year and declined 6% sequentially.

The sequential decline reflected plan preventive maintenance downtime across our facilities, partially offset by mixed management and pricing benefits. SAO's adjusted operating margin was 37.7% consistent with the prior quarter's record. This is an impressive result given the lower available operating time that we typically see in our first fiscal quarter as a result of maintenance activities. From a trend perspective, we expect further margin expansion from productivity, mix, and pricing. That said, margin may vary quarter by quarter depending on the mix of products that we ship in any given quarter. SAO reported first quarter operating income of 216.3 million.

For the second quarter of fiscal 2027, we expect SAO operating income of 214 to 218 million in line with the first quarter. Our outlook reflects reduced production time during the holidays. As in prior years, we expect improved productivity and product mix optimization to partially offset the reduction in operating time.

Turning to PEP on slide 10, first quarter of fiscal year 2027 net sales excluding surcharge were 83 million, down 5% year over year and 15% sequentially. Operating income was 7.3 million, slightly above our guidance, compared with 7.1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and 9.4 million a year ago. The year of year decline primarily reflected lower titanium sales into the medical and use market, offset by strength in our additive business. We expect second quarter PEP operating income to be similar to the first quarter. Before turning the cash flow, let me summarize our second quarter fiscal year 2027 operating income outlook. We expect total operating income of 192 million to 197 million, which is largely in line with our strong first quarter results and implies growth of 24 to 27% compared to last year's second fiscal quarter.

The total operating income estimate is comprised of SAO operating income of 214 million to 218 million, PEP operating income of approximately 7 million and corporate costs of approximately 28 to 29 million.

Turning to slide 11 in our cash generation and capital allocation priorities. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we generated 52.8 million of cash from operations and spent 77.7 million in capital expenditures that resulted in negative free cash flow for the quarter of 24.8 million. Significant cash generation is an important element of our ongoing growth story. We continue to focus our efforts on ensuring cash generation from increasing profitability as well as focus discipline on working capital management.

As expected, capital spending remains elevated as we continue to fund our brownfield capacity expansion project. A brief update on our brownfield project. The expansion project remains on budget and on schedule for completion by the start of fiscal year 2028. Site activities are progressing well with major equipment installation underway. The project team remains focused on safely completing construction and equipment installation while preparing for a successful operational startup.

As we move through this year, we continue to anticipate generating between 400 million and 430 million in free cash flow in fiscal year 2027, which is an impressive outlook given that includes the elevated capital spending related to our capacity expansion investment. The cash generation enables our balanced capital allocation approach that combines investing in attractive or creative growth projects, including the brownfield capacity expansion, with returning cash to shareholders. That is demonstrated by the $133.9 million of shared repurchases during the quarter.

As announced in August, these repurchases completed the prior $400 million authorization as well as purchases under the newly authorized additional $1 billion program. We also continue paying our long-standing quarterly dividend, our strong balance sheet, and liquidity support our capital allocation priorities. At quarter end, total liquidity was $658.6 million, comprised of $159.5 million in cash and $499.1 million in available borrowings under our credit facility. Our credit metrics remain very strong, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.6 times.

And our capital structure is well positioned to allow significant flexibility with no debt maturities until 2034. Again, we believe our strong balance sheet, solid capital structure, and outlook for significant cash generation, physicians us well to continue to invest in future growth, as well as return significant cash to shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tony.

Thanks, Tim. As I mentioned in my earlier comments, the quarterly performance can be summarized into a tight, positive narrative. Consistent record operating income performance, strong operating margins with levers to expand further, accelerating demand across key in-use markets, and continuing benefit from pricing actions. I also noted an industry leading financial outlook. For fiscal year 2027, we communicated strong financial targets just last quarter.

But we are clearly focused on overachieving and are developing action plans to make that a reality. In fiscal year 2028, our Brownfield Capacity Expansion Project comes online, providing an additional accelerator to our earnings growth profile. And by fiscal year 2029, we expect operating income to reach approximately 1.2 to 1.3 billion. That's a 20% plus Kager over three years, a rate that we believe exceeds most in the industry. But again, our goal is to overachieve. And we do not view fiscal year 2029 as the peak of our earnings power. Altogether, we believe carpenter technology offers a uniquely attractive long-term investment opportunity.

We are operating in an accelerated demand environment across many of the most attractive in-use markets in the world. And not only is demand accelerating, but the platforms that serve that demand. Airplanes, medical implants, power generation, semiconductor fabrication. None of them can be built without carpenter technology. As a result, we have a clear path to significant earnings growth in the years ahead. Our strong and growing margin profile reflects the fact that our portfolio consists of highly specialized solutions, serving critical applications where performance matters. Quantification cycles are long and the barriers to entry are significant.

And our strong balance sheet and growing cash flow generation provide us with the flexibility to maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation, investing in profitable growth opportunities and returning cash to shareholders. We remain committed to creating a meaningful long-term value for shareholders through disciplined execution, continuous improvement, and profitable growth. Thank you for your time and continued confidence in carpenter technology.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

Well, I think there are no other puts and takes. I mean, the result was about 98 to 99% of the guidance that we gave. So you're only talking about a couple million dollars Andre and that could come down to one customer unable to arrange your truck to be shipped on the last day of the quarter. That's how small this is what you're talking about. So I don't have a long list of items. We effectively came in at our guidance.

Well, good morning, Gautam. It is changed. I mean, it's stronger. My outlook on demand is stronger than it was a quarter ago. My outlook on pricing is stronger than it was a quarter ago. And my confidence in 27, 20, 29 is stronger than it was a quarter ago. So it has changed to the positive.

Good question. I think it's a good question. It's probably one of the most important questions. It's across the board. So there's not one item. I can't just work on one item. We're working on multiple areas of the plant. And as you well know, when you unlock one bottleneck, by definition, that creates another one that you go work, right? And you try to link them all together. So it was across the board. I mean, for SAO to do one-tenth of a percentage point less than the record last quarter with less operating days and significantly more maintenance activity, you have to have that increased productivity to be able to maintain that. I mean, that's actually an unbelievable level to be at that 37.7 in a month like we had.

So very happy with what's going on out on the shop floor, but not satisfied. Of course, there's a next level and a level after that we can get to. And I would just say this, as you look and you get into Q3 and Q4, the demand signals that are out there, that's going to be even more tailwinds to push this margin percentage up, you're going to have significantly more volume coming across the assets. And the price is going to continue to increase quarter over quarter.

Yeah, thank you. Yeah, the key is it's nothing special about the first quarter. That's just when we usually set up our maintenance schedules. And it usually got them isn't one large piece of equipment out for a long period of time. You just can't afford that in today's demand environment. So what you have are a lot of smaller maintenance projects all hooked together. And that's what you saw in the first quarter. You're going to continue to see that type of preventative maintenance throughout the year. My guess right now is none of those events will be as large as the one you saw in Q1.

Well, without being too exact, I agree with you. I think right now, you know, there's a major negative sentiment that's emerged over the last couple months in the aerospace market. I can't really speak to that, Gotham, because I've not found one person that can explain exactly to me what they're negative on. And my guess is you probably wouldn't be able to explain that to me either. But I think my prepared remarks set out a pretty strong near-term future. That alone FY27 near-term positive future.

With that said, to specifically answer your question, we're going to continue to fund the brown field. And certainly at these levels, we'll remain active in the repurchase program.

Thanks, Gotham. Stay well.

Without giving a specific number, Scott, it is continuing to increase across all of our in-use months. Hasn't have you placed much of the brown field capacity on contract at this point? Or are you still waiting to contract that out? Well, we don't contract out specific pieces of equipment. So, if you look at the demand profile going forward, that volume will be absorbed immediately as it will be absorbed by our current LTA's, right? All of our LTA's, they'll be wanting more material. So, that's not a, I don't contract out specific equipment to specific customers.

Well, I can tell you this, all of them are higher. Every one of the customers that we're dealing with, and we just completed two aerospace, significant aerospace LTA's this past quarter, the first quarter. And every customer to a T wants more material.

Well, I don't know which one comes first, right? I mean, the volume is higher, right? There's only a couple of players in the market, and they're going to need all that material. So, I mean, the volume is significantly higher. The shares are probably going to remain pretty well the same. There's not a share gain battle going on.

Well, Josh, I will tell you this, that the majority, if not all of the customers in that sub market are reporting decreasing inventories, and that aligns them very well. Now, all of them will be at different points in time, right? I'm not suggesting that every customer is the same, but they're, for the most part, all reporting, decreasing inventories, and that is the direct correlation to seeing the increased bookings.

I think the good news is that those bookings are going to have to continue to increase significantly, as I said in my remarks. There is no choice when it comes to that. So I think going forward over the next couple quarters, a very positive outlook when it comes to those two sub-markets.

Well, I was not being, you know, I was not exaggerating when I said that I thought there would be a rush of material orders, once there's some type of clarity around the budget. And I say that because of the discussions that we have with the Department of War, whether that be with the Navy, the Air Force, the Army, that demand is significant. The real issue is that the Department of War doesn't place orders.

There's multiple companies in the supply chain that place those orders, and they don't have that funds flow to be able to do it. There's not one person in the defense supply chain that doesn't believe they should be placing orders right now. But the way that the budget works, that's just not possible for them to do right now. Once that clears up, I think saying that there will be a rush on orders will be an understatement.

Thank you, sir.

Yeah, Bennett, good morning. I will, I will say it this way. Based on that FY 27 guide, I believe that there is upside in volume, productivity and pricing versus the assumptions that we used when we gave that guidance three months ago.

Yeah, Bennett, this is Tim Lane. I think it's a more of a function of timing. So we did build some inventory in Q1 as we progress of the year. We've got more available days in the back half of the year. It's a historical trend. We'll burn that inventory off. So as we progress through the year, we should see cashflow continue accelerate. Capbacks might be a little bit higher in the second half as we ramp up and try to finish the project later this year. But in general, based on the guidance we gave, the cash has to accelerate here in Q2 and then even more in the second half.

Well, I can tell you that price continues to increase, coral report, the LTA's that we just signed higher price. We've got one that sets right now agreement in principle, higher price. We're working on a couple other major ones as we speak. Both will be higher price than before.

I think it's David, it's illogical to think that the price would be lower. I mean, demand is accelerating, not declining, and there's no more capacity coming online other than our brown field, a couple others. There's no way that will keep up with that. So the pricing story seems pretty straightforward to me.

No, no, I see what you're saying. I mean, we stopped giving volume this quarter, so I'm not going to then start giving it on the Q&A, but obviously you think that you got a Q1 with less operating days versus Q4, which is usually your biggest one. But I don't have a volume problem or a volume challenge. I mean, we're running in many cases the majority of our equipment as full as we can.

So I don't have a volume problem now. The issue that you have, David, is that volume isn't generic, and it's not 100% fungible, right? So there are different products that use different pieces of the plant capacity. Having defense be a bit light, maybe the word a bit light isn't the right word, being light. That causes some challenges for us because we have to move some things around. That's volume from the defense side that we would have run, now we're not, right? So we move some things around. So that can be some give and take based on what we decide to run there. But in totality, the volume is going to be there, and it's even going to be stronger as we get out over the next couple quarters.

Yeah, I mean, thanks for the question. Sometimes we forget about that. Medical is going to continue to perform for us. I mean, I should say not continue to perform, continue to increase. It's really one specific subset inside a medical that has lagged a bit. Procedures are up. We make products that provide our customers a solution that they can't get anywhere else. So I think we'll see that continue to increase over the next couple quarters. I'm not overly worried with medical, and it's not driving down my overall performance. Energy interesting, small piece of my overall revenue, but certainly on the IGT side has been very strong, and I would anticipate that to remain strong going forward.

We have a very small oil and gas business even, David. That's been relatively weak, I would say, that we see coming back a little bit here now in this quarter and the next couple quarters. So overall, for those two markets in total, again, much smaller than aerospace, but both, I would say, with some positive tailwinds.

That makes sure I understand your question. What do you mean by when you say the LTA trend?

Yeah, so a couple of questions in there. Of course, the pricing is going to be higher, Andre. As I said earlier, it would be illogical for it not to be in the current environment. But from a total percent of our total portfolio, I would say it's going to be relatively the same, right? Volume is increasing, and the LTA that we are renewing are primarily with existing customers.

The majority of our aerospace business is under LTA now.

Well, we've never seen the drop off of it. So I understand some of that negative sentiment out there. We have not seen it, and we have not heard that from any of our customers.

Thank you, sir.

Well, welcome, Chuck. Think about the three big buckets. Number one, volume, I think, has the opportunity to be higher than what we thought it would be a quarter ago. Just because of the ordering patterns, we just talked about the pent up demand in defense. That is that is a balloon that is ready to bust, right? I mean, the demand is increasing and increasing and the orders aren't there. So I think that's going to be a significant could be a significant tailwind from a volume standpoint, and then across the rest of the aerospace supply chain, we know customers have told us they are ordering today at a rate that doesn't even support the current build rates for Boeing and Airbus.

So we know that's going to have to come back and we sense that that will be in the near term. So I think volume can be an upside. What we've seen with our current work now in LTA's, the pricing potentially can be an upside as well. And then on productivity, yes, there's multiple areas that we continue to drive productivity in through our use of AI, in many cases, that we've been able to unlock faster, and I would say at a greater quantity than we had originally planned. So all three of those buckets, Chuck, are going to contribute to us potentially being at that FY27 guidance. And remember, I mean, it doesn't take a huge percentage increase, for example, in price or in volume to exceed that guidance.

So it's all, it's not easy, but it's all doable.

Yeah, it's a good question. And it's almost, I can give you the same answers I gave to you about how do you increase overachieve on FY27. All right. So margins are going to be driven by increased volume, pricing, we believe, the tailwind, and then also productivity. So we'll be working all three of those, right? As you're able to run your plant at higher and higher utilization levels and find more and more output available to you, that's a direct uplift to the margin. So, you know, we have to be careful, everybody, you know, obviously a lot of concern over going down one tenth of a percentage point in SAO, and a quarter that they have significant preventive maintenance and less operating days.

I'll have a hard time understanding that one. So you will have some of that variability quarter to quarter, but if you look over the long term, certainly the opportunity for us to continue to increase SAO margins is clearly there.

Thank you.

Thank you, Opera. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for fiscal year 2027. First, have a great rest of your day. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.