Summary
Management framed strong demand and productivity as durable, while acknowledging service fluidity remains the key execution gap.
- 2026 outlook increased across revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow, with capital spending unchanged.
- Service metrics lagged despite record productivity, prompting modest hiring and resource adjustments rather than structural network investment.
- Pricing momentum improved, but management declined to quantify merchandise or 2027 domestic intermodal increases.
Guidance
- 2026 revenue growth mid to high single digits.
- 350 bps2026 operating margin expansion greater than 350 basis points.
- 80%2026 free cash flow growth greater than 80%.
- $2.4B2026 capital spending less than $2.4 billion.
- Q3 operating income expected to benefit modestly from improved fuel comparisons.
- 3.75%Q3 incentive compensation declines, largely offsetting the 3.75% union wage increase.
What analysts pressed on
- 01Service execution: seasonal crew shortages increased dwell, but management expects sequential improvement without structural network changes.
- 02Pricing: management cited stronger market conditions and pricing acceleration, but declined to quantify merchandise or 2027 increases.
- 03Productivity: the efficiency pipeline remains robust, with 2027 planning already roughly halfway complete.
- 04Hiring and capacity: modest headcount additions should address crew pinch points while preserving productivity gains.
- 05Intermodal growth: Howard Street Tunnel and SMX are adding conversion opportunities, with capacity available on many trains.
- 06Incremental margins: management expects powerful leverage, but emphasized that profitable, return-accretive volume matters more than volume alone.
Notable disclosures
- $93M2026 margin guidance includes first-half real estate gains, which management said were about $93 million.
- 6%6% lower headcount offset stronger volumes, but management plans modest G&E hiring to support service.
- 12%12% lower intermodal terminal cost per lift demonstrated operating leverage beyond contractor reductions.
- Howard Street Tunnel unlocked later in the bid cycle, leaving additional opportunity for late-2026 and 2027 volumes.
- Domestic spot intermodal pricing accelerated, but management said it remains a small business portion.
Risks raised
- Higher dwell and inconsistent crew availability remain the principal operational execution risk.
- Plastics volumes may moderate after first-half pull-forward activity tied to customer inventory building.
- Automotive volumes may soften after summer shutdowns and elevated inventories before fourth-quarter model launches.
- Fuel volatility, higher locomotive overhaul costs, and fewer property gains could pressure second-half margins.
- North American light-vehicle production is expected to decline just under 2% for the year.
Tone: Confident 0.78
Raised guidance, broad demand strength, and productivity gains outweighed acknowledged service execution issues and several second-half market risks.
Who spoke
Company
- Matthew KornInvestor Relations
- Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
- Mike CoryChief Operating Officer
- Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
- Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Analysts
- Stephanie MooreAnalyst, Jefferies
- Chris WetherbeeAnalyst, Wells Fargo
- Scott GroupAnalyst, Wolfe Research
- Brian OssenbeckAnalyst, JP Morgan
- Ken HoexterAnalyst, Bank of America
- Jonathan ChappellAnalyst, Evercore ISI
- Tom WadewitzAnalyst, UBS
- Brandon OglenskiAnalyst, Barclays
- Walter SpracklinAnalyst, RBC Capital
- Ari RosaAnalyst, Citi
- Jason SeidlAnalyst, TD Cowen
- Harrison BauerAnalyst, Susquehanna
- David VernonAnalyst, Bernstein
- Bascome MajorsAnalyst, Stephens
- Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
Full transcript
Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.
Prepared remarks
Good afternoon and welcome everyone to the CSX Corporation 2nd Quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Matthew Korn, head of investor relations and corporate communications. Please go ahead.
Matthew KornInvestor Relations
Thank you, Audra. Good afternoon, everyone. We are very pleased to have you join our 2nd Quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me from the CSX leadership team are Steve Angel, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Quarry, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Boone, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and Mary Claire Kenny, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. In the presentation that accompanies this call, which is available on our website, you will find slides with our forward-looking and our non-gap disclosures. We encourage you to review them. And with that, I'm very happy to turn the call over to Mr. Steve Angel.
Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our earnings call. This quarter CSX continued to make progress toward our goal of best-in-class performance. Stronger demand led to volume growth across our business, and we managed this growth while delivering strong safety and productivity outcomes.
These results reflect the hard work and dedication of our railroaters as they serve our customers safely and reliably. For a quarter, volume increased 6% and our revenue increased 10%, reaching a new quarterly record. At the same time, we improved operating efficiency and maintained strong cost discipline, driving substantial margin expansion and double-digit growth in operating income and earnings per share.
We are proud of our accomplishments so far this year, but our objective is to build an organization that can consistently deliver strong performance over the long term. There are many areas across the business where we can improve performance, and network fluidity and service are among them. Plans are in place to address opportunities for improvement, and we expect to see steady progress throughout the quarter while maintaining our focus on profitable growth.
Our solid volume growth this quarter reflects the benefits of our commercial initiatives, network investments, and the execution of our team across the railroad.
Our priority is achieving profitable growth, not gaining market share for its own sake. I believe that industries that become too focused on market share eventually drive out profitability. At CSX, what's most important is that the business we add increases operating income, expands margins, and delivers good returns on invested capital.
Mike?
Mike CoryChief Operating Officer
Thank you very much, Stephen. Good afternoon, everyone. The railroad made solid progress in safety and productivity this quarter, as shown on slide 5. Our team continued its consistent and disciplined approach to managing risk and controlling cost, even as the amount of volume we handle grew substantially. The strength of our safety culture is the foundation for everything we do at CSX, and our year over year safety performance was impressive in the second quarter.
Our FRA injury rate improved by 19% compared to last year, even as our base of total people hours declined by 7%. And our trade and accident rate improved by 30%. We see opportunities to build on these results through continued focus on risk awareness, field level engagement, and applied technology as we pursue best in class performance. We managed stronger than expected growth in the second quarter, with volumes increasing 6% year over year, handling this growth while experiencing seasonal reductions in employee availability, created tightness in certain areas of the network. And while our average velocity improved 3% compared to the prior year, we also saw an increase in dwell.
We're taking clear steps to improve the consistent availability of our crews, and with the effective management of resources, we expect sequential improvement in our service metrics.
Network productivity continued to increase this quarter. The metrics on the right side of this slide highlight the specific gains our team delivered. Our fuel efficiency improved a year over year for the fourth straight quarter as we improved locomotive utilization and continued to maximize the use of trip optimizer. We increased the number of GTMs we generated per unit of horsepower for the sixth quarter in a row.
Our employees were more productive, and we moved more tonnets per train compared to a year ago. Overall, our team stepped up as customers brought more business to CSX. We ran safely and efficiently, and I expect fluidity to improve as a year progresses. Kevin's now going to review our financial results, and over to you, Kevin.
Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
All right. Thank you, Mike. Good afternoon. As both Mike and Steve noted, the CSX team delivered another strong quarter, including higher volume, record revenue, and lower non-fuel expense. These results reflect continued partnership across the business to improve safety and drive cost efficiencies while meeting increased demand from our customers. Total revenue increased 10%, benefiting from higher fuel surcharge combined with both volume, growth, and higher pricing across our merchandise, intermodal, and coal markets.
Total expenses increased by 6%, with a 2% reduction in non-fuel expenses. Putting it all together, operating income increased by 17%, with operating margins improving 240 basis points, despite 160 basis points of fuel price headwinds. This strong performance drove earnings per share growth of 23% in the quarter.
Let's now turn to the next slide for a closer look at expenses. Total second quarter expenses increased by $138 million compared to the prior year. This includes an increase of $177 million for fuel, driven by higher diesel prices, net of savings from our record setting quarter fuel efficiency. The labor cost increased by $40 million, with a nearly 90 million combined impact from higher incentive compensation and inflation.
These headwinds were mostly all set by savings from a 6% lower headcount, with declines across both management and craft employees.
G&E headcount will increase modestly in the coming months to support our service product with improved demand, while we expect to leverage process improvements in technology to absorb attrition in other areas of the business. PS&O expenses were lower again in the second quarter, with efficiency savings across each of our operating departments, as well as our G&E and technology functions.
Discretionary costs remain under intense review, and managers across the company are being empowered with tools and visibility to take action on wasteful spending and other cost opportunities. For example, spend on third-party services across our operations team was lower by $23 million in the quarter, benefiting from better utilization of our internal maintenance functions and detailed reviews of contractor activity.
That discipline also applies to our corporate functions, with savings and external technology labor, corporate communication support, and legal fees. The business also demonstrated an inability to efficiently absorb higher volumes, with a 12% reduction in our intermodal terminal costs per lift.
Moving to the third quarter, incentive compensation expense will step lower sequentially, largely all set by the 3.75% union wage increase. And within PS&O, we expect fewer property gains and insurance recoveries, as well as higher costs for locomotive overhauls in the second half relative to the first. As Steve noted, we are focused on our service product while embedding a culture of continuous improvement.
Our accomplishments here date put us in a position to invest in initiatives that drive further productivity in 2027 and beyond. With that, I'll turn it over to Mary Claire to review our revenue results.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I get into the results, I want to recognize the hard work of our commercial and operation teams who worked closely together to handle volumes that exceeded our expectations.
Heading into the second quarter, we saw favorable trends emerging in select markets. What started as a narrow, supply-driven improvement in market conditions broadened through the spring, resulting in strong volume growth across the business. Customers are increasingly turning to rail for their supply chain needs, and we are focused on earning their business through competitive service offerings and reliable execution.
Turning to slide 10, I'll walk you through second quarter volume and revenue performance. Overall, total volume was up 6% in the quarter, revenue was up 10%, and revenue per unit was up 4%. Total revenue per unit excluding fuel declined 1% compared to the prior year due to mix, as intermodal grew at more than double the rate of other business units.
In merchandise, volume was up 4% year over year, while revenue grew 8%. Merchandise RPU excluding fuel was 1% higher, as solid pricing helped offset negative mix, including fuel, RPU was up 4% year over year. Strength was broad based across merchandise, with 6 of our 7 business units growing or holding flat year over year. Chemicals volume increased 8% compared to last year, supported by plastics exports and demand for waste by rail.
Metals and equipment delivered at stand-out quarter, with 14% revenue growth on 3% higher volume, driven by increased customer production and new plate mills, and favorable mix from higher military and equipment moves.
Forest product volume was flat year over year, a significant improvement from the first quarter, as conversions increased on tighter truck capacity and higher fuel costs.
Intermodal continues to build momentum, and with the largest contributor to unit growth this quarter, with revenue up 26% on 9% higher volume, and RPU up 16% year over year, driven by fuel surcharge. Our diverse domestic business drove our volume growth, as new service offerings continue to ramp, and truck-to-rail conversions have accelerated.
Faster service and expanded network capacity enabled by the Howard Street Tunnel have positioned us well to capture this business.
Finally, coal revenue grew 9% on 4% higher volume. Coal RPU increased 4%, primarily due to strong domestic contract renewals, as Hampton Roads benchmark prices were relatively stable during the quarter. Export tonnage increased 12% year over year, driven by mine restarts, and a best-ever four-month stretch of tonnage through Curtis Bay.
Domestic tonnage declined 2% as lower natural gas prices and normalized customer inventories, modestly tempered otherwise healthy demand. As we look to the second half of the year, our commercial initiatives continue to create opportunities for us to grow the business, including new service offerings, the ramp-up of industrial development projects, and investments in our Transload and Terminal network. Our opportunities to convert business to the railroad continue to grow, as tighter trucks apply and higher rates are highlighting the value proposition of rail. On the merchandise side, this is most prominent in forest products, waste, and metal.
We also expect strength and conversions to support domestic intermodal volume. Study construction activity continues to support minerals and metals, and investment tied to power infrastructure and data center build-out is driving demand in domestic coal, track sand, and heavy equipment. Agricultural exports are another area of strength, with record U. S. corn shipments through Chesapeake continue to continue through year end.
That said, we do see the potential for momentum to slow in some markets. Following a quarter of strong production in automotive, normalized inventories and summer shutdowns are leading to a softer start to the second half, ahead of new model launches in the fourth quarter. In chemicals, we expect plastics volumes to moderate, following pull forward activity in the first half.
Meanwhile, coal fundamentals remain strong. Power demand and recent plant life extensions will support domestic utility burn. New business winds are driving growth in domestic steel and industrial markets, and export volumes are expected to remain steady, benefiting from improved mind supply.
Finally, on the outlook for revenue per unit, underlying core pricing remains at or above our plan. With most of our contract renewals for the year already complete, we expect fuel and mix to be the primary drivers of our PU in the second half, as any flow through from truck rate pricing to yield typically takes time to materialize.
Overall, trends for the back half of the year remain encouraging, and we're focused on converting those opportunities into long-term growth for the railroads. With that, I'll turn it back over to Steve.
Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
Thank you, Mary Claire. Now we'll review our updated guidance for 2026 on slide 13. Based on our results year to date and our expectations for the balance of the year, we are adjusting our 2026 outlook higher. We now expect four-year revenue growth in the mid to high single digits, operating margin expansion of greater than 350 basis points, and free cash flow growth of greater than 80%. Our outlook for capital spending remains unchanged at less than 2.4 billion.
The updated outlook reflects strong volume growth, improved financial performance, and the continued focus on productivity and cost control that you've heard about in today's call. We continue to see opportunities to strengthen service execution, improve productivity, and drive long-term efficiency across the railroad.
Those efforts remain central to our goal of delivering sustainable improvement over time. Finally, I want to thank our railroaters for their hard work and dedication this quarter. These results were made possible by their commitment to safety, integrity, and serving our customers efficiently.
Matthew will now open it up for questions.
Matthew KornInvestor Relations
Thank you, Steve. We will now proceed with the question and answer session. To ensure that we maximize everyone's opportunities to participate, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one and only one question. Audra, we are ready to begin.
Questions and answers
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to start your question, simply press star one again.
Stephanie MooreAnalyst, Jefferies
We'll take our first question from Stephanie Moore at Jeffries. Great. Good afternoon. Appreciate the question. I guess maybe starting on one of the last points here in the prepared remarks about just the pricing opportunity in the back half, understand the benefits you're seeing mixed and fuel-wise, and maybe not necessarily seeing some of the truckload benefits yet. So maybe just help us understand when we would expect to maybe see some of those benefits come through as the underlying environment, certainly, freight environment certainly seem to heat up a bit here and in the last month, couple of months or so.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Thanks. Thanks for the question. So, yes, if we think about pricing, we've said earlier this year and we reaffirm it today that, you know, we expect our same store sales price seems to be stronger this year than it was last year. I think as I think about our merchandise portfolio, the team recognizes, you know, the value of the service that we provide. And, you know, they're leaning in having conversations with customers and continuing to accelerate price.
I think, you know, there's a lot of obviously conversation out there in terms of truck market. We did see truck capacity tightened. I say in particularly over the course of the last couple of months with regulatory enforcement.
I'd say on the inner modal side, we're near the tail end of the domestic and our modal bid season for 2026. And I'm not, I'm not going to get into 2027 at this point. But I would say we have seen pricing accelerate in our domestic spot segment, which is a smaller portion of our business. But we've also seen it on some of our recent rail asset contract renewal.
The team is constantly evaluating, you know, what market conditions look like. And, like I said, they recognize the importance of ensuring we're getting the value for the service we provide. I do think it's important on the inner modal side to remember that not all areas of that business have the same market dynamics. For example, I tell you international, I think I've mentioned this before is heavily concentrated.
It's competitive and it's primarily contracted under long term deals. So that is not as highly coordinated to the truck market as you might see on domestic.
We'll go next to Chris Weatherby at Wells Fargo.
Chris WetherbeeAnalyst, Wells Fargo
Yeah, hey, thanks. Good afternoon. You know, maybe one to keep to get your perspective on sort of productivity and cost control progress from here. So obviously some really good momentum so far in these first two quarters of 26, particularly seeing on the PS and no line. I guess as you think about the bigger picture opportunity, it's just sort of just low hanging fruit that you're capturing now. I guess you've been there a couple of quarters now have a better sense of what maybe the bigger picture opportunity is wondering if maybe you can comment on what you think.
You can continue to sort of generate out of the business as we maybe look into the second half and potentially beyond the 27.
Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
Kevin, why don't you take that one? Yeah, you know, I would say expenses and efficiencies are never low hanging.
Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
There's a lot of work that goes into the efforts. Obviously coming into the year, we had a plan and we're delivering on that plan, which I'm encouraged about. And we I could say we looked outward first, you know, we're looking at all of our contractors, everything that we pay outside of the company first. And quite frankly, Mike in this team have come to the table with ideas on insourcing and we found opportunities and source activity and use our employees to do that work. And that's materializing the savings as well. And we see other opportunities there. The pipeline is robust. We're in the currently in the process of building out our 2027 plan and efficiencies, bringing the whole team together.
We obviously have targets that we're setting ourselves internally and goals there. I would say we're about halfway through that process and moving on, you know, probably a lot earlier than we normally would in any other year that I've seen. And it's really about creating the muscle. It's about creating, you know, the accountability throughout the organization ownership, you know, common goals. And, you know, from a finance perspective, it's about us providing the tools and the visibility for Mike and his team and others to really go out and get those costs and understand where where those cost opportunities are. So a lot of collaboration. We're excited. We're reviewing those tomorrow. Again, our status update and more to come on that.
We'll go next to Scott group at Wolf Research.
Scott GroupAnalyst, Wolfe Research
Hey, thanks. I just want to follow up on the pricing question. So first question, I think answered a lot about intermodal pricing. I want to ask about merchandise. We're seeing better volumes there.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
I'm sure they have some competition with truck market. Like, do you think merchandise price should be accelerating as well with intermodal? And so maybe, you know, to an aggregate basis, you said that we think same store pricing better in 26 and 25. I don't, maybe it's too early to ask this, but would you think we see another acceleration in overall same store price in 27?
Yeah, thanks, Kat. So I would say, yes, I'll reiterate this year better than last year. I would say, you know, we're constantly looking at the markets and having discussions with customers. They want us to reinvest in the business. They understand inflation. I would tell you, we have seen improvement in several markets as we've gone throughout the course of the year, but too early to get into 27 at this point.
Next, we'll move to Brian Austin back at JP Morgan.
Brian OssenbeckAnalyst, JP Morgan
Hey, afternoon. Thanks for taking the time. Question for Mike, you know, we see some of the KPIs. Some of them moving in what we historically see, not not a good direction, the trip plan, the cars as well, but clearly setting record fuel locomotive safety and a solid result. So just wanted to see if you can kind of square the KPIs that we normally see, maybe a little bit more next picture and you still think there's some improvement with sort of the impact on the businesses is really affecting. Pricing renewals. The service looks at least a little challenge in some areas. And was this any impact from the surprise and volume growth? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks for the question, Brian. And I'll turn the second piece over to Mary Claire on any effect, man.
Mike CoryChief Operating Officer
But you know, you're correct. Our service metrics aren't where we want them to be. Our locations volume was up 6% across the network and hiring some individual locations while the head count was lower than last year, but we managed through that by being safer, more efficient. And we increased our average tonnage per merchandise train by 5%. And we improved our workforce productivity. And while we were doing that, it added pressure, obviously to our service metrics. And I tell you, that's our area of opportunity and we're extremely focused on it. And it's not a structural service issue and certainly not to minimize the importance of it, but we were very productive and just not as food as we needed to be.
So the forward work is pretty straightforward for us. Food network provides reliable service at the cost that we need. And this isn't really about choosing one or the other. It's about meeting our customers needs effectively and productively. You know, we're going to keep improving on the safety and productivity gains we earned, but our goal is to create the capacity where the demand profile requires it. So that's going to include a little modest increase in our team. You had count to support that service product. However, we expect the productivity to increase.
And again, we're being deliberate about it. We aren't going to over correct and reduce the productivity. The team has really worked hard to earn. We're focused on creating the consistency that our customers need and deserve. So the bottom line that the quarter short showed that we can handle stronger volumes and do it safely and efficiently. And while we count on those two things to continuously improve, our next step is really to convert that into more consistent fluidity and service. And that's going to prepare us for productive growth. So that's what we're focused on. And I see us sequentially improving our operating and service metrics, no doubt about it.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
But over to you, Mary Claire. Yeah, and I just add that, you know, the team's obviously staying very close with customers and with our operating team. Like, and I spend a lot of time together. Our team spent a lot of time together and we're constantly reviewing service. We're talking through if we see an area that is an opportunity. How do we work here together and then making sure we're staying close to the customer?
We'll move next to Ken Huxter at Bank of America.
Ken HoexterAnalyst, Bank of America
Hey, great. Good afternoon. So great job on the higher volumes, but I guess maybe just to clarify that the 350 basis point target that that includes the gain on sale, right? So what about 93 million this quarter? And then Mike, on that point of hiring faster, you know, or do you need to hire faster, given the 6% jumping car loads? I mean, isn't this the time where you need to start planning ahead for not just what may come? But if the truck market keeps tightening and we keep getting a spill over, can you meet that with productivity or do you need to start hiring faster, given the lead time you have to start working on that?
Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
Thanks. Yeah, just to clarify, on the margin side, it does include, obviously, the results that we reported in the first half, including some of the real estate gains, as you mentioned, it wasn't 93 million in the quarter.
Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
It was much less than that in the second quarter, but in the first half of the year, it was about that amount.
But let me take that. This is Steve. So we, any kind of head count increases very modest. And one thing that happened, I think, I think Mike covered it is, you know, the summer months are where we have a lot of vacations. And all those people in those people have really come back. So it's concentrated in just a few months. And that's right at the same time that we saw that acceleration in demand. So we kind of got caught a little bit there. But those people are back at work and, you know, any creases we're contemplating will be very modest. It will be in good shape going forward. And in fact, as you look at our service metrics today, they're definitely improving.
All right.
Jonathan ChappellAnalyst, Evercore ISI
Next question comes from Jonathan Chappelle at Evercourt, ISI. Thank you. Good afternoon. Kevin, you called out two cost items somewhat specifically. So on labor, it feels like it's going to be roughly flatish as the incentive come to clients, but then you have the annual wage inflation. And then PS&O, I guess you kind of insinuated that's going to be higher without the gains on sales, some of the locomotive work, et cetera.
We would typically, I think, maybe expect to see the 3Q margin improving, especially when you have this type of volume acceleration, the strong start that you've had to July.
Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
Given some of those cost things that you've just noted, maybe some of the hiring fuel volatility again, would you expect to see a kind of normal seasonal trend as we go through the second half of this year?
Or, you know, some of the maybe the lower hanging fruit or the heavy lifting has already been done in the first half?
No, I wouldn't say that. I think we have a lot of good initiatives that we're going to continue to carry through on the PS&O side. I think you're spot on on the labor side. The incentive comp largely will offset some of the labor increases that we have in starting in July 1 with our union labor workforce. But otherwise, you know, I think you'll see typically some of the same seasonality. I think typically you'll see third quarter, maybe a little lower than second quarter. Really, the big factor here on the margin side will be the fuel. You know, we've seen a lot of volatility in the fuel price. Certainly, we face the fuel lag in the second quarter of the year and that should go away.
But all bets are off on where the fuel could go. We saw a pretty dramatic increase this past week. But all else equal, I think we'll see some benefit quarter over quarter. And that's probably going to help our margin story a little bit as well as we move from second quarter to third quarter. So probably a little bit better than the typical seasonality when we see a little bit deterioration from an operating income perspective from second to third quarter.
We'll move next to Tom Watowitz at UBS.
Tom WadewitzAnalyst, UBS
Good afternoon. So I wanted to swing back a little bit to the pricing side. I think maybe Mary Claire, if I ask it in a way that you kind of frame where we're at on merchandise pricing, maybe that'll help us to think about what the upside could be. So, you know, if we think about kind of a range of merchandise pricing you've achieved over time, I don't know if the low ends, you know, 1% the high ends, 5 or 6, something like that. You know, obviously, if I'm off on that, you know, please correct me. But where do you think you're at on the range of pricing gains in 26 just so we can have a sense of, you know, as you see some of this, you know, tighter truck market and maybe some strengths in your markets.
How much upside is there in pricing when you look to 2027 in particular on the merchandise segment?
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Yeah, I think so. We're not going to put out a number associated with pricing, but what I would tell you is the team is closely looking at it. I think in several markets, the fundamentals have changed over the course of the last several months. And so it's something that we watch closely. We have a highly skilled team on the marketing side. They understand their markets.
They're constantly having conversations with customers and, you know, we're going to make sure that we continue to price at the value of the service and make sure that as people are looking to bring more to rail, we're taking that into account.
We'll take our next question from Brandon Oglinski at Barclays.
Brandon OglenskiAnalyst, Barclays
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Mary Claire, maybe I can ask one of you to look like your units are running up maybe six and a half percent right now early in the third quarter. I guess how can you compare that, you know, to your annual revenue guidance here? And I know you called out, you know, some headwinds in the back half, but are we just running maybe even ahead of expectations right now?
Yeah, thanks.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
I would say right now, you know, we called out a couple of areas that we're watching. So merchandise and intermodal improved in the second quarter. I'd say if we think about the balance of year, the tighter truck capacity should create some additional opportunities on domestic intermodal. We take that into account as we think about balance of year and in certain areas of our merchandise portfolio. I'd say we saw probably the strongest acceleration due to truck conversion in the forest product segment in Q2 versus where we were in Q1.
You know, when I think about where, you know, we're thinking about the future. There's two areas in merchandise that were a little stronger in the second quarter than we anticipated that we're keeping our eye on. And I mentioned in the prepared remarks is chemicals and it's automotive. That's on the chemical side with the war in Iran. We saw an uptick in plastics as people were looking to pull ahead.
Inventory is now we're keeping a close eye on those. They could moderate as we get into the back half. And so that's an area we're keeping focus up against. And then on the automotive side, you know, overall automotive demand really hasn't improved. So the current outlook for a North American light vehicle production is still to be down just under 2% for the year. It was lower first quarter. It accelerated some in the second quarter. But we're watching those trends coming out of shutdown.
Some inventories are high and so we're keeping an eye on that. So that could decelerate a bit. But I think as we think about the rest of the markets, you know, there's better fundamentals we see out there now than where we saw, you know, starting out this year.
We'll move next to Walter Sprachlin at RBC Capital.
Walter SpracklinAnalyst, RBC Capital
Yeah, thanks very much. Good afternoon, everyone. I was going to come back to Mike on the on the capacity side. Now you talked a little bit about about labor and hiring, but I was wondering if you're seeing any pinch points from a structural standpoint.
Anything that might make you look a little bit harder at the capital. I know you hold it on.
Mike CoryChief Operating Officer
You know, when growth comes on, sometimes you find some pinch points that you weren't getting over there before. And is there any other things about it at all?
Thanks for the question, Walter. No, in terms of structural issues, no, we're always looking at our capacity and actually we're working very hard to define and make better our capacity modeling. But in terms of the network itself, we showed with the volume we brought with the exception of some locations where we were very tight on crews, we can handle it and we can handle more. So we'll continue to see to look at our demand profile and work hard to find out the capacity that we have and obviously exert everything we can out of it. But in terms of structural, no, we're in good shape going forward and that's how we see it.
Our next question comes from Ari Rosa at City.
Ari RosaAnalyst, Citi
Hi, Mary Claire. I was hoping you could talk about the intermodal opportunity, maybe staying on the idea of available capacity. Now that Howard Street is open, obviously the trucking market is tightened a lot, especially in the East. And we heard JB Hunt speak to that. Just talk about how you're balancing the desire to grow volume against the pricing opportunity and how much available capacity is on the network. Like how should we be modeling that over the next couple of quarters? Thanks.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Yeah, thank you. So I'd say when we think about domestic and remodal this year and longer term, we see opportunity out there. And then we go back to even a couple of years ago when we talked publicly about where we saw domestic and remodal. There's a good amount of traffic that moves over the highway that is suitable for intermodal conversion.
Certainly we're coming out of a pretty soft truck market. It's tightened pretty significantly over the course of the last several months. And we're having a lot of conversations with customers. I tell you the investments we've made in our infrastructure have allowed us to capitalize on opportunities. Probably, you know, pretty quickly over the course of the last few months.
I'm closely watching as the team goes out there and sells against Tower Street tunnel and the new connectivity that we've put in place, what that looks like on a weekly basis. We've talked about over the last couple of calls, some of the new services that we've put in place, including the partnership with CPKC on SMX. And when I look at, you know, SMX and Howard Street tunnel over the course of the last few weeks, really over the course of the last couple of months, we've seen growth week over week.
In both of those areas. And then as I look at the last couple of weeks, you know, it's adding about to a couple of points, I would say, in terms of domestic intermodal growth. And so we see additional opportunity there. How are streets pretty still pretty early for our customers? And it was later in the bid cycle when that was unlocked this year.
So as we go into the back end of this year, we go into next year, we see additional opportunity. I think as we think about, you know, placing as a hot topic today, as we think about that and going forward, you know, we're constantly watching the market, evaluating the market, not everything comes up at the same time. I talked earlier about the busy season associated with domestic intermodal and that comes into play in terms of capacity. It's a constant conversation with Mike and his team. I'd say as I think about our intermodal train, you know, they're out there running today. There's capacity on many of our trains. And so it gives us the ability to bring on business pretty quickly within that area and still be able to support it from our reliability and a consistency perspective for our customers.
We'll go next to Richard Harname at Deutsche Bank.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
Hey, yeah. Thanks everyone. Thanks for the time. So I just wanted to discuss more about like customer feedback, you know, the value proposition for intermodal is pretty clear, but more broadly, I guess, how are customers feeling with driving them to CSX? Does it feel very company specific? You've optimized your product portfolio, do your exposure to specific projects, or does it feel like there's true macro uplift here? And then just, you know, I just wanted to clarify that there's no fear around broad based pull forward. Mary Claire, I think you gave us a lot on plastics and auto, but, you know, wanted to confirm you don't feel like that was there was broader pull forward out there, given the high level data we see from the ports.
And then, you know, along those lines, maybe also comment on the competitive environment and how that's affecting your ability to optimize demand in this environment. Thank you.
Yes, I'll try to remember all of that. You're starting on the intermodal side like that.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
I think there's good opportunity for intermodal conversion. We have a wholesale channel of sale. We work with our channel partners. We have lots of conversations with them. We also have a BCO national accounts team that talks directly with shepherds. And so we're constantly working with them, evaluating what they're moving over the road, looking at their truck load files and advising them on what are the best lanes that are suitable for intermodal conversion. And so we do continue to see opportunities there and with a tighter truck market, the value proposition that animal will provide. I think, you know, it's really strong and it will be an area of opportunity as we proceed through this year and to next.
When I think about the broader markets, I mentioned a couple in terms of automotive and plastics. What I would say is, you know, talking a little bit about forest products, you know, that's an area coming into this year. We saw the biggest headwind. I want to say that the demand is necessarily strengthen, but the supply really has. And so we do continue to see opportunities within that area as we think about tighter truck capacity out there. And then we've said many times this year about several of the other areas, the business more tied to infrastructure. So think about metals going into data centers, infrastructure investment, you know, your plate, your rebar that we continue to see strength there, expect that to to maintain and same with the minerals perspective.
So a lot of funding with IJ a lot of investment investment continuing in that area. And so we don't we don't see a material change in that going forward. We're positive about that.
We'll take our next question from Jason Seidel at Cowan.
Jason SeidlAnalyst, TD Cowen
Thank you. Steve and team. Good job in the quarter. Mary Claire. One of the talk a little bit more about two things you brought up. Number one, you mentioned sort of your spot in our model business. Maybe you could remind us the percent of the total. That is, and also you referenced your SMX advantage business with the CPKC. Just curious sort of what sort of is the longer term opportunity with that. And especially given that, you know, we saw the FMCSA, you know, eliminate thousands of sort of individual carriers overnight earlier this year that violated cabitize is one of you for getting a lot of questions from maybe new people that want to ship cross border or mold from Mexico.
Yeah, I'm the spot piece.
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
I'd say that it's a very small portion of our business. So it's a small element of our domestic intermodal side, but it's, you know, it's an area that we've seen acceleration recently in terms of SMX and CPKC. I mentioned we've continued to see growth. We saw we saw good volumes as we started the program a little over a year ago. We've been very happy as we come into this year with the acceleration that we've seen already. And like I said, similar to Howard Street tunnel, there's something that is building upon itself and we're seeing growth weekend and week out. We think as we've improved the service in recent months and we've added additional lanes of service to SMX as we get into the back half of this year and start into next year's bid season, we're going to continue to see additional growth in that area.
We'll move next to Harrison Bauer at Susquehanna.
Harrison BauerAnalyst, Susquehanna
Earlier comments you provided a merchandise RPU X fuel. I was curious if you can offer what intermodal RPU X fuel was or said in another way, what your renewals, particularly in the domestic business were like. And then maybe taking a step back off of that, you know, truckload sees two strong bid seasons of, you know, over double digit.
Renewals, what's the ultimate opportunity for pricing within your domestic intermodal business without sacrificing maybe some of that opportunity for a truckload conversion?
Mary Claire KennySenior Vice President
Thank you. Yeah, I think, you know, I mentioned that fuel was the driver on intermodal RPU in this past quarter. I would say as we think about the future, I mean, truck, the truck market has just recently tightened. And so, you know, when we think about our bid season, it's not different than what you hear from some of the other large trucking companies out there, ones that reported recently and ones that will report.
You know, the bid season kicks off towards the end of the year and we start seeing pricing then and it's coming up to the kind of tail end of it right now. And so I would say the market dynamics have shifted as we've been in bid season for domestic intermodal this year. As we think about the future, there's some business we can reprice each year. There's some that is in multi-year agreements that have specific things tied to it. And so, you know, we're going to lean in as I've mentioned, but I think that's about as far as we're going to go at this point on domestic intermodal pricing.
And our final question today comes from David Vernon with Bernstein.
David VernonAnalyst, Bernstein
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So, Kevin, I wanted to get your sense for how you're feeling about the operating leverage on the incremental business that's coming in. And there's a lot of sort of stuff that you guys have done this year, which is commendable around head count reductions and expense reductions. But, you know, when I think about the freight revenue growth in relation to the profit growth, some of those one time items, maybe the incrementals aren't so great. I'm just wondering how you're feeling about, you know, the leverage you're getting on the new business. And how much of the 54 million of the efficiency gains is really kind of volume driven versus more cost takeout driven?
Kevin BooneChief Financial Officer
Yeah, I mean, when I do the math, quite frankly, our incremental margins were very, very strong when you excel fuel for your overall expenses to be down 2%. And, you know, in the growth that we achieved in the quarter, that's, you know, the incremental margins I'm quite pleased with if you do that math. So, you know, as we move forward, this is a model that has a lot of fixed costs. And as we bring volume on it, and it's got to be profitable in its ports, obviously our reinvestments in our railroad, we expect to generate powerful incremental margins. And so I think you did see that in second quarter if you do the math and look at the fuel impact that occurred.
And moving forward, obviously that net fuel impact will be less going forward. So won't be as quite of a headwind as we saw in the second quarter, but C line of sight, so strong, powerful, incremental margins. It's a cost discipline. Obviously, as we build take on the volume, not all volume is created equal to your point. So we're looking for volume that supports our reinvestments and returns an invested capital as a real focus for this team.
And we do have one more question and that comes from Bascom Major that Stevens.
Bascome MajorsAnalyst, Stephens
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Steve, I'd be curious on your perspective as an outsider now 10 months into being an insider at the railroad.
Steve AngelChief Executive Officer
You know, relative to what you were thinking when you came in and accepted this role, you know, where do you still think there is a lot of opportunity to do things differently. And an old economy established industry and where maybe have you sort of given up where there's too much friction or just processes that are too ingrained to really change? Thank you.
Well, I would say as a 10 month veteran, I'm encouraged about the progress we've made and really what we have ahead of us. And I always think of it in terms of, you know, there's opportunity to improve everything. And I've always found that to be true. And, you know, in operations, I think it's probably a never ending endeavor to continue to improve operations. And, you know, my core is a 40 year veteran. He knows all about it. And I'm always amazed how much he knows about the railroad railroads and how to operate the railroads. And, you know, there's always going to be an opportunity to improve that. And, you know, we talked about that a little bit today.
Some of the things we're doing to improve pricing, you know, Mary Claire was had to answer about 18 pricing questions today. And, but I really think, you know, that's a muscle we're building. I think we're getting better every day at that, you know, building price management capabilities. She's all over it. This is an area where AI can really do some good with good price analytical tools so we can get a little better at that. I always think about pricing in terms of, you know, making sure that we, you know, understand the value we're providing the customer. What is the value we're providing?
What is their next best alternative? Are we earning good returns? You know, do we have the capacity to serve? And all that goes into those decisions and you make those decisions surgically. You know, it's not a blanket, you know, we're going to do X percent price across this segment of the market. You know, those are all surgical decisions. And of course, we want profitable business. We want good returns on on capital, as Kevin said, and continue to reinvest the business. I think on the productivity side, Kevin talked a lot about that. Mike did two to some degree, and I think there's a lot of opportunity on the productivity side. I think, you know, we obviously the team responded great, you know, so far this year.
But as we look at, you know, we're talking about 20. And he's probably working on 27. We'll be talking about benefits that will carry forward to 28. So, you know, it's really all about, you know, building that productivity muscle. And I think that's, you know, that's an opportunity for improvement. But, you know, all businesses, you know, great businesses have opportunities for improvement, and we're no different than anyone else.
And this concludes today's question and answer session and conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may not disconnect.
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