Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH:ASX) FY 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited call on May 25, 2026.

Held
May 25, 2026
Length
59 min
Tone
Positive0.67
Analysts
9
Words
8,490
FY27 revenue guidance
$2.45 billion to $2.57 billion30 April exchange rates
FY27 NPAT guidance
$500 million to $550 million
FY27 tariff margin impact
70 basis points10% tariff assumed all year
FY27 Middle East margin impact
45 basis points raw materials; 25 basis points freightAssumed for the full year
FY27 capex
approximately $230 millionAround $125 million land and buildings
FY27 operating expense growth
mid to high single digitAcross R&D and SG&A
FY27 currency NPAT impact
two to three percentage points or ten to fifteen million dollarsFavourable at end-April rates
Long-term gross margin target
65%67% to 68% target at current exchange rates

Summary

Management framed FY27 as continued momentum through tariff and freight disruption, while emphasizing that its outlook rests on current conditions rather than predicting future events.

  • 14%14% constant-currency hospital consumables growth made total hospital consumables a more relevant measure than new applications.
  • 27%27% constant-currency hospital hardware growth reflected ongoing US demand for recently launched systems and possible pent-up demand.
  • FY27 midpoint assumptions include similar hospital consumables and OSA mask growth, but lower hardware sales.
  • Management said it would prioritize growth opportunities over customer price increases or major manufacturing-footprint changes.

Guidance

  • $2.45B$2.45B–$2.57B FY27 operating revenue at 30 April exchange rates
  • $500M$500M–$550M FY27 net profit after tax
  • 10%70 basis points FY27 gross-margin impact from US tariffs, assuming a 10% tariff for the full year
  • 45 bps45 basis points FY27 gross-margin impact from Middle East raw-material surcharges
  • 25 bps25 basis points FY27 gross-margin impact from Middle East freight surcharges
  • Mid- to high-single-digit FY27 operating expense growth across R&D and SG&A
  • $230MApproximately $230M FY27 capital expenditure, including around $125M on land and buildings

What analysts pressed on

  • 01FY27 revenue range: the midpoint assumes similar hospital consumables and OSA mask growth, with hospital and home-care hardware declining.
  • 02Hospital hardware demand: US launches and possible pent-up demand supported recent growth, but management declined to comment on one month of FY27 trading.
  • 03Tariff exposure: management assumed a 10% rate for the year and declined to predict future tariff changes or exemptions.
  • 04Customer pricing: management said price increases are not the default because pricing is contracted or negotiated and repricing competes with growth efforts.
  • 05Gross-margin recovery: management said 65% could be reached in two to three years if current disruptions persist, while favorable exchange rates imply a higher target.
  • 06Middle East supply-chain costs: surcharges may persist well after the conflict ends; management did not quantify how long.

Notable disclosures

  • 10%Over 10% of new applications revenue came from anaesthesia, growing better than 40% off a small base.
  • 80%80% to 90% of hospital hardware purchases are typically replacements, often prompted by customers adding capacity and standardizing on newer models.
  • FY27 midpoint revenue assumptions include declining hospital hardware and lower OSA hardware after FY26 replacement demand from a 3G-to-4G transition.
  • Management said ventilator use can cause non-invasive ventilation and nasal high flow to appear in traditional consumables, blurring new-applications reporting.
  • 67%At current exchange rates, management said it would aim for 67% to 68% gross margin rather than stop at its 65% long-term target.

Risks raised

  • Air-freight volumes above the assumed near-record-low share could pressure FY27 gross margin, particularly through fuel surcharges.
  • Middle East freight and raw-material surcharges are assumed to persist for the full year and may continue after the conflict stops.
  • Management assumed stable sea-freight availability and no FY27 revenue impact in the Middle East, but these remain uncertainties.
  • Tariff rules and exemptions remain uncertain, and management would not forecast how future Section 301 or Section 232 measures may apply.
  • Hospital hardware growth could fall sharply after two years of strong demand; management said a 20% FY27 decline would still leave a 10% three-year placement CAGR.

Tone: Positive 0.67

Management emphasized broad-based demand, improving efficiency and ongoing clinical adoption, while acknowledging tariff, freight and hardware-growth uncertainties in its outlook.

Who spoke

Company

  • Marcus DrillerVP Corporate
  • Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO
  • Lyndall YorkChief Financial Officer
  • Unidentified Management
  • Justin CallaghanVP of Sales and Marketing
  • Andy NicollChief Operating Officer

Analysts

  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Craigs Investment Partners
  • Lyanne HarrisonAnalyst, Bank of America
  • Saul HadassinAnalyst, Baron Joey
  • Chris CooperAnalyst, JP Morgan
  • Davin ThillainathanAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
  • Andrew PaineAnalyst, CLSA
  • David BaileyAnalyst, Morgan Stanley
  • Craig Wong-PanAnalyst, RBC
  • Christine TrinhAnalyst, Macquarie Bank

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Welcome to the Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FY26 Results Announcement. My name is Justin and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, everyone except the guest speakers will be in listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question and answer session. We ask for your assistance in keeping the call to a maximum of one hour. If assistance is required at any time, please press the star button, fall by zero on your phone, and wait for a coordinator. If you require further assistance, you should redial into the call. Please note this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Marcus Driller, VP Corporate.

00:41

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thank you, Justin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the conference call for Fisher & Paypal Healthcare's full year results for the 2026 financial year. On the call today with me and Dan are Lewis Graydon, our Managing Director and CEO, Lyndall York, our Chief Financial Officer Andy Nicoll, our Chief Operating Officer Justin Callaghan, our VP of Sales and Marketing and Andrew Somerville, our VP of Products and Technology Lewis and Lyndall will first provide an overview of the results and then we'll move on to questions We'll be discussing our results for the 12 months ended 31 March 2026 Earlier today we provided our 2026 annual report including financial statements and commentary on our results to the NZX and ASX.

These disclosures can be accessed on our website at fphcare. com forward slash investor. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Lewis.

01:41

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Okay, and thank you Marcus. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us on the call today. I'm going to be referring to the investor presentation pack that was released to the NZX and ASX earlier this morning. So we'll start on page two with some of the key features from FY26 and I'd like to just call out a few of these items. We'll start where it matters most, the efforts of our people, our clinical partners, customers and suppliers saw approximately 24 million patients treated by Fisher & Paykel products over the past year. So thank you to everyone who's contributed to improving care and outcomes for all these people over this period. achieved a strong result in hospital hardware sales.

It's been strong across all the regions, but especially so in the United States where both the Evo3 flow generator and the 950 humidification system were released just two years ago. And the body of clinical evidence for OptiFlow nasal high flow therapy has continued to grow with some additional clinical practice guidelines released during this year. We now count 12 guidelines with those recent additions from the American College of Emergency Physicians, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in the UK, and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease.

So now let's turn to page three. Operating revenue for the year was $2.3 billion, up 14% on the prior period, or 12% in constant currency. Net profit after tax was $468.5 million, up 24% on the prior period or 28% in constant currency. Lyndall's going to take you through our financial performance in more detail shortly, but before that I have a few comments on hospital and home care revenue drivers. So start with hospital on page 5. Operating revenue was $1.5 billion, up 18% on the prior period. That's 15% in constant currency. And once again this is broad-based strength, it's across the product portfolio and it's across the geographies. New applications consumables revenue grew 18% year-on-year and that's 16% in constant currency.

And hospital consumables as a whole grew 14% in constant currency and that is becoming the more relevant number for us these days. That growth in consumers is during a period where we think we've had a reduced year-on-year hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses during the northern hemisphere winter, and that's in the United States and in the other major markets. So it does suggest that changing clinical practice was once again a strong growth driver for us. Hardware revenue was up 27% in constant currency on last year, last year and this exceptional result is probably another pointer to progress in changing clinical practice. So let's turn now to Home Care on page 7. Home Care operating revenue was $802.7 million, that's up 8% on last year or 7% in constant currency.

And OSA mask growth was 7% or 5% in constant currency with that growth generated by our latest SOLO and NOVA ranges of nasal and collo's masks. Hardware growth is also a feature of our home care result for this year. I'm going to pause there for now and hand over to Lyndall.

05:07

Lyndall YorkChief Financial Officer

Thanks Lewis and good morning everyone. On page 8 our growth margin was 63.7% for the year. This is an increase of 122 basis points in constant currency over last year. The range of margin improvement efforts across our business, including manufacturing efficiency and other efficiency gains, continued making a positive impact. US tariffs on product source from New Zealand impacted our gross margin by approximately 90 basis points this year. We had no material impact to our gross margin in FY26 related to the disruption in the Middle East. Lewis will outline the gross margin assumptions in our guidance for FY27 later in the call.

Moving on to page 9, total operating expenses grew 8% in constant currency compared to last year. This reflects the higher investment made over the last few years and modest increase in people numbers in the last financial year.

Operating margin was 27.6% for the year, an increase of 277 basis points in constant currency over last year. This reflects the improvement in growth margin as well as our operating expenses growing below revenue growth. R&D expenses grew 4% to $235.5 million and were 10% of revenue for the year. This represents a six year compound annual growth rate from FY20 of 12%. We continue to estimate that about 60% of our R&D spend is eligible for the 15% R&D tax credit. SG&A expenses were $298 million this year, an increase of 9% in constant currency.

Moving to page 10, operating cash flow this year was $663 million, up 21% from last year, reflecting the strong increase in profit. Tax payments this year of $161 million were up from $90 million last year. Capital expenditure, which includes purchases of intangible assets, was $195 million for the year, up from $103 million last year. This includes $132 million bends progressing the construction of the fifth building at our East Tamaki campus in New Zealand and the second payment for our Karaka land purchase. Capital expenditure for the 2027 financial year is expected to be approximately $230 million. Within this is around $125 million on land and buildings including the final payment on our Cracker land purchase. Looking at the balance sheet, debtor days were slightly down on last year at 43 days.

Net cash at the 31st of March 2026 was $401 million and our gearing ratio was minus 22.8%. Interest bearing borrowings were $53 million, all of being non-current. Turning now to page 11 we have declared a fully imputed final dividend of 33 cents per share. This takes the total dividends declared this year to 52 cents per share, up 22% on last year and this represents a 65% payout of our full year profit. The final dividend will be paid on the 3rd of July. Looking now at foreign currency on page 12, foreign currency movements unfavourably impacted our net profit after tax growth by 4 percentage points, or $15 million from the FY25 reported result. This largely reflects the movement in hedging results, partly offset by the movement in spot rates when compared to last year.

During the 2026 financial year we recorded hedging losses of $21 million and foreign exchange losses on balance sheet translations of $3 million, all on a pre-tax basis. At the end of April exchange rates we would recognise hedging losses of $17 million and foreign exchange losses on balance sheet translations of $1 million in the 2027 financial year. both as pre-tax amounts. At the end of April exchange rates we would have an overall favourable impact to our net profit after-tax growth of approximately two to three percentage points or ten to fifteen million dollars in FY27 from the FY26 reported result. If all currencies moved by one percent our net profit after tax for FY27 would move by approximately $2-3 million based on the level of hedging in place.

This excludes the impact of balance sheet translations which would impact by approximately $1 million if all currencies moved by 1% between reporting dates. Now it's back over to you, Lewis.

10:44

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

OK, thanks Lyndall. So let's turn now to Outlook on page 13. And there's a bit more there to digest this year. We've provided an estimate for full year operating revenue at exchange rates on the 30th of April of between $2.45 billion and $2.57 billion. And for full year net profit after tax, we've estimated a range of about $500 million to $550 million.

And for these interesting times, we've also provided insight into some of the assumptions that we incorporated into those estimates. And in general, we assume a continuation of the current status. And just for absolute clarity, these are assumptions that we've incorporated in our estimates. and not necessarily a prediction of the future or future events. So, first of all, tariffs.

There's a number of moving parts to potential US tariffs during the year and we fully expect some change at some time during the year. In this net profit after tax estimate, we've assumed that a 10% tariff rate for certain respiratory products manufactured in New Zealand is applied for the whole year. And this results in an estimated adverse impact to gross margin of 70 basis points in constant currency terms and that is actually an improvement of 20 basis points over last year. So now for the impact of the Middle East conflict. We've assumed that something similar to the current freight and raw material surcharges will continue to exist for the whole year. Now we have a very seasoned and experienced team of supply chain professionals and we've got long standing supportive working relationships with our suppliers and they have all been working long and hard from the very beginning to mitigate the impact of this conflict on our supply of medical devices.

And I want to call out all those people and thank them for those efforts which of course are ongoing. So thanks very much. And so based on our current status our best estimate for the impact on raw materials is an additional 45 basis point cost to gross margin and for freight an additional impact of 25 basis points to gross margin. Now we're also assuming that sea freight availability is not impacted to the extent that it pushes us to more air freight than normal and in addition for our business we're not expecting any impact of revenue in the region from the conflict for the year. Now we've also called out on the slide some of the other assumptions in our estimates for the year.

They are more of an accounting nature and I hope they're self-explanatory. So after all that it's a net 50 basis point negative impact to gross margin for the year. But for us we still expect that our ongoing continuous improvement activities across the entire business will generate savings and efficiencies that more than offset that 50 basis points and result in an improvement to gross margin for the year. Now finally before we go to Q&A I do just want to point you back to the word that sits on the cover of the slide pack and it's on the cover of the annual report and that's momentum. We do believe that a business built on innovation with the patience to change clinical practice, The discipline of a robust quality management system and a mindset of continuous improvement builds momentum and in the face of these disruptions and uncertainties, this momentum helps keep us on track towards the compelling market opportunities we have in front of us.

So Marcus, at present, I think that momentum is carrying us into time for questions.

14:33

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Marcus D' Very good, thanks Lewis. Justin if I could ask you to please open the line up for questions And can I please ask everybody to limit your questions to two This is to ensure that everybody has an opportunity to participate You can rejoin the queue for any additional questions.

Questions and answers

14:53

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to register a question, please press star followed by one on your phone. And if you wish to cancel your registration, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound or hash key. Thanks. Our first question comes from Rob Morrison at Craig's Investment Partners.

15:24

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Morning, team. Congratulations on another excellent result. I'd like to kick off by asking about the revenue guidance. So you've guided to 6% to 11% revenue growth next year. Could you give me a bit of colour on the assumptions that bookend the top and the bottom of that range? And ideally some colour on the assumptions for the hospital and home care divisions.

15:49

Unidentified Management

Sure, okay. And thanks, Rob. So when we think about guidance, looking at the midpoint, you're looking at something like similar growth in hospital consumables, you're looking at similar growth in OSA masks, and you're probably looking at flat hardware year on year. At the top end, you're probably looking at improvement in everything, improvement in hospital consumers, improvement in growth rates in OSA masks, and some growth in hospital hardware and home care hardware. And at the bottom end we'd be looking at probably a lower hospital result in concern books, probably a significantly lower hardware result at the lower end, and similar slightly lower growth rate in home care and home care hardware also dropping off significantly. I might just talk to those hardware comments.

We've had a big year with 27-28% in hospital hardware. If that hospital hardware rate was to drop for FY27 or even go backwards, if it went backwards 20%, you'd still be looking at a cumulative placement of hardware over the three years, 25, 26, 27, that corresponded to a 10% compound annual growth rate. So I hope that gives you a bit of insight.

17:21

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Craigs Investment Partners

No, that's awesome. Thanks a lot. Well, just on that hardware point, it was very interesting that the hospital hardware growth accelerated strongly in the second half. So could you give me a bit of colour on what was driving that, be it new products or whatever else, and then kind of speak to what you're seeing in terms of that growth in 1H27 to date?

17:49

Unidentified Management

Sure, I'll answer the first question there. Look, one of the bigger drivers is coming out of the United States. We introduced Evo3 and the 950 humidification system into the US first half FY25. We've seen pretty low hospital hardware growth in the US, 23 and 24. We saw really strong growth, 25. We've seen that strong growth. We've continued, 26. So at this point in time, we're thinking probably some pent-up demand was generated, and that's still flowing through.

Thanks for your questions, Rob. I apologize for what you're seeing in...

18:32

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Craigs Investment Partners

Oh, no, that's a good one. Thank you. Sorry.

18:35

Unidentified Management

Oh mate, one month, I wouldn't make any comment on what we're seeing for one month in any way whatsoever and even more so on hardware. Thanks Rob.

18:52

Next questions come from Leanne Harrison at Bank of America.

18:56

Lyanne HarrisonAnalyst, Bank of America

Can I start with gross profit? Obviously, we saw material expansion. I think even in the second half, that expansion in gross margin accelerated. Can you talk through the key improvements there? And then my follow-up question. I listened to your comments around assumptions for FY27 gross margin being the 70 basis points impact from U. S. tariffs. and then also the 25 and 45 from the Middle East conflict. But I'm just trying to understand how that gets to the 50 basis points net margin impact that you spoke to earlier, and is there any pass-through of those costs to consumers?

19:41

Unidentified Management

Okay, thanks, Leanne. I'll take the first part of all of that. In the second half, the strong revenue allowed us to produce more, So our production volume increasing, whereas we kept a lot of the overhead growth rate fairly controlled in the second half. So we did see a step up in our overhead efficiency and leverage that we got there in the second half compared to the first. But the improvement in growth margin is really everything. So everything else really continuing to benefit. That's the continuous improvement projects throughout the entire organisation.

pricing and mixed benefit that we always get, as well as keeping really controlled on the overhead spend, continuing to sort of grow into that overhead structure.

So that really was the key as to why second half stepped up was supported by that revenue growth. Now in terms of FY27, the 70 basis points are on a standalone basis from tariffs, and that's comparable to the 90 basis points that we saw in FY26. So tariffs actually helps us year on year, 27 from 26, by 20 basis points. So we get a positive impact there of 20 basis points.

And then offsetting that is the 25 and 45 from the Middle East disruption where we had nothing in FY26 and we've got that 70 basis points in FY27. So that 70 basis points from Middle East disruption in 27 netted off against the 20 basis point benefit year on year coming from tariffs gives us that negative 50 basis points that we were talking about. Hopefully that's clarified that for you.

Maybe I'll take... And yes, if... Yep. I'll take the second question look we typically don't pass on cost increases to our customers I don't think we have any customers at all that we can just notify we're putting their prices up, it's not like we're the ASX or anything like that so for us it's contracted pricing, it's negotiated pricing and it's a process we have to go through and it's time and effort we have to put into it because the customers don't like it So we tend to put our time and effort into the growth opportunities rather than renegotiating pricing.

22:22

Lyanne HarrisonAnalyst, Bank of America

Thank you very much.

22:25

Unidentified Management

Thanks, Leanne.

22:26

Next questions come from Saul Hadassin at Barron Joey. Please go ahead, Saul.

22:34

Saul HadassinAnalyst, Baron Joey

Good morning. Thanks, guys, for taking my questions. Just first one on operating costs. just wondering if you could provide some colour on what you're assuming growth looks like for R&D and SG&A into FY27.

22:49

Lyndall YorkChief Financial Officer

Yeah, so between the sort of bottom end and top end of our range, we'd be looking from sort of mid to high single digit growth in our OPEX and that's fairly consistent across R&D and SG&A.

23:04

Saul HadassinAnalyst, Baron Joey

Thanks, Lyndall. And maybe just one for Lewis. Lewis Hospital Hardware you touched on that 27-28% growth. I'm just wondering if you can distill whether growth is equivalent for both the Airvo3 and also the 950 or is there disproportionate growth in terms of the hardware within any of those categories?

23:22

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

I think it would be pretty comparable. We don't really think of it like that but I think pretty comparable. Nothing to call out, nothing unusual.

23:36

Saul HadassinAnalyst, Baron Joey

Thanks.

23:37

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Saul.

23:40

Next question comes from Chris Cooper at JP Morgan.

23:44

Chris CooperAnalyst, JP Morgan

Thanks very much, Marcus. Thanks for taking the questions. So, first one actually just on tariffs, if you don't mind. So, I'd actually thought you'd come in a little bit worse than that in 26. Sorry, a little bit better than that in 26, a little bit worse in 27. You sort of, you know, exceeded my expectations there for the guidance for this year coming.

How are you thinking about 1-2-2 and just generally your expectations for whether or not the 2-3-2 will impact the sector and how you may be able to respond to that?

24:20

Unidentified Management

Thanks, Chris. I'll touch on that. What we're not doing is trying to predict what's going to happen with tariffs through the end of the year. The best we can do is, as we've done, lay out the assumption saying if the current situation holds for the full year, here's what the impact would be, which is 70 basis points on an absolute basis there. Part of that reduction from 26 is in 26 we had some rates at 15%, so that's come down to 10%, which is what we're currently paying on products that are subject to tariff out of New Zealand, and then just our continuing sort of growth that allows us to help manage where we put growth volume and capacity there.

So we really don't want to speculate on what is going to happen going forward. The best we can do is let you know and try to be as clear as possible with the assumptions that we've based this guidance on.

25:19

Chris CooperAnalyst, JP Morgan

Okay. And noting Lewis's prior answer there, I mean, if there was a situation where, you know, a tariff was imposed, would that be a situation where it might be appropriate to pass that on to customers in some way?

25:34

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Probably not, Chris. I mean, it would depend on the magnitude, of course, you know, but it wouldn't be our go-to and we'd be balancing time and effort about passing on the cost because it doesn't come free, that time and effort versus time and effort on the growth opportunity. Same with the manufacturing and supply chain footprint, actually same logic. We can adjust our footprint based on where we put our growth and that's our first preference.

26:03

Chris CooperAnalyst, JP Morgan

Okay, thank you. And just a quick one on home care, if you don't mind. I mean, 5% growth in OSA masks, it does look like you perhaps lost a couple of points of share. Anything you could put that down to, you know, given you probably have had a couple of launches recently? I know you had a new nasal mask launch January or so this year. So is that going to drive an improvement or is there anything else that's going on there in that revenue line?

26:28

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Hard to say. I mean, I think what we're looking at is more a result of lapping two, three years of double-digit growth than anything else.

26:38

Chris CooperAnalyst, JP Morgan

Okay, thanks.

26:42

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Chris.

26:43

Next questions come from Sasha Crean at Evans & Partners.

26:50

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Good morning. Thanks, Marcus. First question on hardware as well. I'm just wondering if you can give us any sort of guidance on whether you have any visibility on the extent to which that growth is being driven by replacements versus expansion units.

27:07

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah, yeah. Unfortunately, we can't. Typically it is 80 to 90% replacement and typically it's driven by growth. So this is a scenario where a customer has 50 850 heater bases, they want to add 10 more, they have to decide whether they buy 10 more 850s. They probably will not mix the 950 and the 850 models, so if they want to go to 950 they're probably going to do 60 950s. Hence the comment. It is largely replacement driven by growth.

27:43

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Yeah, okay that makes sense. And then I think in your CEO report you do talk about the contribution from anesthesia. I'm just wondering if you can provide a bit more colour on that and whether there's been any particular guideline change or anything that's making penetration into the US faster?

28:04

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Probably not. I mean it's a strong uptake, it's off a small base, we're still looking at better than 40% growth this year, currently heading towards over 10% of new apps. Not really running into clinical evidence or guidelines as the hurdle I would say at this point. One difference with this product is the anaesthesiologist can trial the product on the first patient and they can see the impact in the first five minutes.

28:37

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Okay, so can you explain that in the sense that they can trial the product?

28:44

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

So they can trial the product, they can see that the patient is not breathing and they can see that saturation levels are not changing. And they can see that every single time on the first patient.

28:59

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Okay, thank you.

29:04

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks Sasha.

29:04

Next questions come from Devon Thalinathan at Goldman Sachs. Go ahead Devon.

29:14

Davin ThillainathanAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks Marcus Morning Lewis morning Lyndall Lewis maybe a question for you to start off The revenue guidance for FY27 would imply about 9 in the midpoint And I think you were talking about momentum in your opening remarks I would say the 9% is perhaps a touch lighter than your 12% aspiration. So perhaps if you can help us understand what's holding GrowthPack on that 12-month view, please.

29:43

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Sure. So you can get to the midpoint by maintaining hospital consumer growth at 14%, maintain OSA masks at 5%, and then hardware going backwards. First of all, hospital hardware, which I've kind of spoken to, we think we've got some pent-up demand driving the last two years, and it's a matter of whether that rolls off or not, that would be fair enough. and even if hospital hardware was to go backwards 20% over the three years that's still pretty high cumulative placements and then also we've got a phenomenon of home care as well where we've had in FY26 we've had growth in CPAPs so we've had growth in OSA hardware that's pretty unusual for us, it's usually going the opposite direction That's been driven by a turn-off of 3G and a swap over to 4G, so a bit of a bolus of hardware replacement in a particular market through FY26.

We're not expecting that to repeat into FY27, so to get to your midpoint, you've also got OSA hardware going backwards. pretty reasonable assumptions, reasonable assumptions I think and neither of them are something to panic about.

30:59

Davin ThillainathanAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep, yep, no that's clear, thank you for setting that out. And I guess the next question is on your assumptions as well that you've incorporated into 27, specifically on the gross margin and the comments about the surcharges going into the Middle East conflict I mean I guess the comments about the surcharge I would read that as a temporary increase and therefore there should be an unwind once things change so I guess one of the leading indicators we should be looking at given you have given us the building blocks for your guidance range so what should we be looking at to think about that change in the surcharge assumption place Yeah, Davin, I'll sort of take that.

31:44

Unidentified Management

I think it's one, the end of the disruption in the Middle East and things normal. I think that even when the war stops, it will still take quite a bit of time for supply chains and everything to work their way through. So So whilst, yes, we think this probably is a temporary surcharge cost, how long that temporary goes for is uncertain at this point in time. And I would say that we would anticipate that it still remains for a reasonable period after the war stops.

32:27

Davin ThillainathanAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

All right.

32:27

Unidentified Management

Thanks, Lyndon.

32:31

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Devon.

32:32

Next question's come from Dan Huron at MST Marquis. Please go ahead, Dan.

32:39

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, MST Marquis

Good morning, everyone. Thanks very much. Look, I guess the first question to Lyndall. Clearly, tariff mitigation is getting better than expected. So is there any change to your original comment that this will all cost you an extra year in achieving your long-term gross margin guidance?

32:56

Lyndall YorkChief Financial Officer

Thanks, Dan. So, look, I think if everything sort of holds as it is at the moment, We have historically been able to do that 100, 150 basis point of just BAU improvement. If tariffs and Middle East disruptions sort of stay as it is, we think we could get back to that 65 in, say, two to three years. Now, that's with the caveat that we're at very favourable exchange rates at the moment, so we'd actually be targeting for higher than that at this stage.

33:26

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, MST Marquis

Okay, thanks so much. The next point, I can't remember if you said this or we've all assumed it, but there's probably some ability to shift geographic manufacturing footprint to minimise that tariff impact. Is that something you're doing? And if so, how are you progressing with that?

33:48

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah, the important thing for us, as I said, is to spend our time and effort on growth rather than moving things around. But within the plants, we can move some capacity from plant to plant. We've done that during FY26, maybe helped to the tune of a couple of million dollars in the year. And then also, if we're adding manufacturing lines, we can maybe pull forward where we add them to help with that. And we've done that during the year as well, probably a couple of million dollars total in terms of moving things around. But when I say moving things around, I don't mean picking stuff up and moving it from one plant to another. I mean volume from one plant to the other.

34:33

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, MST Marquis

Yeah, understood. Thanks very much.

34:36

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks Dan.

34:36

Our next question has come from Adrian Orbon at Jarden.

34:42

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jarden

Good morning team. Perhaps the first question for Lewis, just on slide 5. Just picking up on a comment you made around hospital consumables and total becoming a more relevant focus I guess rather than the new apps which has traditionally been a strong focus. I'm not saying you're losing focus on it but are you able to just give us a bit more colour what's sort of driving each of those kind of lines? Like I think IV consumers is again pretty strong at 9% growth. You've called out anaesthesia at 40% plus around about 10% of new apps. Can you just give us a bit more between sort of nasal high flow and NIV?

35:22

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah look they're all pretty strong across the board Adrian but the comment I kind of wanted to make is a lot of ventilators were placed during COVID and there was quite a big turnover of the world's ventilator sleep. The modern ventilators can deliver invasive ventilation, non-invasive ventilation and nasal high flow. So what we see these days is we do see non-invasive ventilation use and nasal high flow use on a ventilator can look like an invasive consumable to us.

So when you now look at our new apps versus our invasive consumables or traditional consumables, traditional has got new apps in it. That's just a fact of the matter. Personally, I don't tend to look at new apps to the same extent I use, so I'm looking at hospital consumables. and so I'm very appreciative you asked the question because I think that's the one we need to look at that's the one we'll look at going forward but we don't want people to feel like we're taking something off them Sure, okay that's helpful just before we leave the first question are you able to kind of just give us a sense of I guess the OptiFlow versus the traditional OptiFlow versus NIV within the new apps I appreciate there's a little bit of spillover into the IV stuff They're not all that different, mate, in terms of growth rates.

36:54

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jarden

Okay, all right. That's cool. I don't know if this is a question for Marcus, maybe, but just coming back to the tariff situation, are you able to kind of just give us a bit of an update of what you've been doing on the Nairobi protection and what sort of guidance you've received as to how that might apply in a forward-looking construct? including potentially like a section 232?

37:23

Unidentified Management

Thanks for the question Adrian. I think what we would say is that nobody knows the answer to how these different exceptions will be treated under any future changes. So nobody can give you an opinion on that that will be foolproof. So we're still carrying on business as usual. We've included that 10% assumption for the year. We know that will not necessarily be how things play out but we have various free trade agreements and then exceptions that currently apply, whether they apply in the event of a section 301 tariff or a section 232, that's still to be played out.

38:10

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jarden

OK, I understand that part, but can you just give us a bit of an update on what you've been doing on the Nairobi? I understand that's kind of been expanded to the Evo 3 in particular, I think.

38:23

Unidentified Management

Yeah, we do have some exemptions that are on the US Customs and Border Protection website and that's for Evo range of products and consumables and our 950 and some various consumables associated with the 950.

38:44

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jarden

Okay, thank you.

38:48

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks Adrian.

38:49

Next question's come from Ben Crozier at Forsyth Bath. Please go ahead Ben.

38:58

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Forsyth Barr

Morning team, just first one for me just on that hospital hardware. Is there anything anecdotal you can sort of call out of how these 950 and EVO 3 have maybe offered up that opportunity outside their ICU a lot more than prior device versions have?

39:12

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah, I'm going to ask Justin to maybe give some colour on that.

39:19

Justin CallaghanVP of Sales and Marketing

Yep, thanks Ben. Justin here. I think from the 950 that's typically used on a ventilator, So typically, wherever ventilators are is where they're used. So I wouldn't sort of suggest too much is happening outside of the ICU there. The AeroVo3 does provide a lot more mobile than our previous generation products, so people can use that in other areas of the hospital. That's primarily to transfer patients from one department to another, and that's one of the big features of that product, and that's definitely being valued.

39:50

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Forsyth Barr

And then maybe just on the ISA mask side of things, I think previously you called out maybe full face masks has been a bit of a headwind because it's been a few years since you've launched a new mask. Is that still what you're seeing? And the new masks that you've launched in recent years are still growing quite well, but it's more offset by some of those mask categories where you haven't launched a mask lately?

40:14

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Well, actually I don't think I called that out, Ben, but that's all a fair assumption, mate. All quite accurate. I think ask and answer in the same.

40:26

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Forsyth Barr

That's all for me. Thank you.

40:28

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Ben.

40:29

Next question has come from Marcus Curley at UBS.

40:38

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Good morning. I just wanted to start with a little bit of colour in terms of how you're thinking about R&D these days. It obviously was a year of much slower growth. And so just keen on getting an understanding of your thinking behind that and in particular how you think about it going forward. Is there a greater discipline being put over the top of the R&D in terms of its incremental return or am I just sort of overplaying more of a moderation in the growth rate?

41:11

Unidentified Management

Yeah, Marcus, I think it's sort of you're overplaying it probably a little bit there. it's more a reflection of we purposely going through COVID and coming out of COVID accelerated our investment in R&D and we said we were very willfully and purposely doing that and so then this last year was more a reflection of that which is where sort of over the six years a 12% CAGR on growth of R&D sort of feels about rightish to us. There is some lumpy expenses in the R&D number like biocompatibility expenses, clinical trials, so that can throw just that R&D growth rate around a little bit, not material to the overall result but just looking at that R&D growth rate can make that look a bit higher and a bit lower and we had a little bit of that higher in some of those costs in 25, a bit lower in 26 which was reflected in the 25 being a bit higher or 26 looking a bit lower from a growth rate so wouldn't read anything into that Sure okay and then secondly I suppose an extension of that maybe for Lewis we haven't seen a full face mask in OSA in a while I was sort of expecting to see Could you talk a little bit about the challenges in full face relative to the other categories where clearly you've had a much greater cadence of mass release?

I think it comes back down to the fundamental philosophy for us in this business, and that is to have a product where our customers, dealers, patients can see a difference. So when we're running our R&D programs, we're aiming at a perceivable difference. And whether we like it or not, that takes as long as it takes. And no matter the planning and the strategies and the schedules that go in, we don't know we've hit that metric until we hit it. I think it's as simple as that.

43:25

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Does that suggest that you have more false starts or the process has a number of false starts in terms of ideas that don't necessarily meet that criteria and hence don't get launched?

43:41

Unidentified Management

Yes, it's a fair assessment. When it takes longer, that's probably had more iterations in it. Yes, absolutely right mate.

43:53

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Okay, thanks.

43:58

Thank you Marcus Next questions come from Andrew Payne at CLSA Go ahead Andrew Yeah morning all Congrats on the result Just coming back to gross margin, just wondering if that guidance has any second half waiting.

44:16

Andrew PaineAnalyst, CLSA

And also you touched on it before, but if these are headwinds ease, how long would it take for gross margin to normalise, just thinking about the inventory building, how long it would take to work through that?

44:29

Unidentified Management

Yeah, look, not really getting much colour on the second half. The second half seasonality is sort of where we see the biggest uncertainty I guess in terms of what our revenue is likely to be and so that can move that around a little bit. So nothing really to call out one way or another for that. In terms of working through inventory, I don't see that as being a major impact there. It just sort of depends on how long these costs go up for. I guess one thing that I do want to call out as a risk to that margin in FY27 is the amount of volume going air freight. We're assuming, as Lewis said, sort of stable supply chains, and that's sort of almost at our record low of the percentage going air freight, and air freight's where we've seen the biggest fuel surcharge impact.

So I just really want to call that out as a bit of a risk to these numbers as well.

45:43

Andrew PaineAnalyst, CLSA

Okay, thanks. So just to clarify, so the 45 basis points raw material, you're assuming that is for the entire FY27?

45:52

Unidentified Management

Correct.

45:54

Andrew PaineAnalyst, CLSA

Yeah, okay, thanks. And then just staying on to gross margin, so obviously you've got the 65 basis points target. You did 63.7 this year with a 90 basis point headwind. So if we look at an underlying gross margin, you're at 64.6.

You're still targeting 100 to 150 basis points year over year, but you're saying for the three years, the 65% no income exchange rates. I'm just thinking, how far does this have to go? You're still targeting 65% as a baseline, or do you think you'll get above that over the next few years on an underlying basis?

46:38

Unidentified Management

Yeah, look, so we want it to be on a as-we're-building-it basis rather than an underlying basis, So we're going for that 65 based on the cost that we're seeing today because we're just doing our usual efforts to mitigate them and just treating them effectively as normal costs in. At these exchange rates, we wouldn't stop at 65% because, as you highlight, we're pretty close to that if you stripped out the tariff impact.

So at these exchange rates, we'd probably be aiming for about 67, 68. The 65% gross margin target is over the long term. We think of it as over the whole range of foreign exchange. That means when it's favourable you need to be a bit above, which is now.

47:27

Andrew PaineAnalyst, CLSA

Okay, that's great. Appreciate it. Thanks.

47:32

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks Andrew.

47:34

Next question has come from Vanessa Thompson at Jefferies.

47:39

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jefferies

Good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to continue on that FX theme. I think it says in the PAC sensitivity of $2 to $3 million for every 1% change in the New Zealand dollar. Is that typical or is that a little higher than we would have seen in the past? Thank you.

48:03

Lyndall YorkChief Financial Officer

Thanks Vanessa. Look it's possibly a little bit on the lower side. We're coming into the year with quite good amount of hedging so that can go up and down depending on the level of hedging we enter the year in and we do show you in the pack what our level of coverage is on slide 16 that you can see we're really in quite a well hedged position for most of our currency.

48:32

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jefferies

Thank you. And then I also wanted to ask about the clinical guidelines. Obviously you've seen some really good progress in the primary medical support category. I wonder if you could give us a bit more color on guideline progress to the other categories of clinical practice. Thank you.

48:58

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Oh, maybe a generic comment. I mean, certainly for respiratory Optiflow, that research and clinical practice guidelines has been well out of our control, I think, for quite a few years now. That's being run by the research community in general.

I think for the current set of clinical practice guidelines that we have, if every hospital that we visited just implemented the current clinical practice guidelines. I didn't want to think about what volume would look like. So I think the content and what the current guidelines cover is not a hindrance to us at all. We do expect them to continue improving and continue building out over time. That's not something we have any control over.

49:48

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Jefferies

Fair comment? Thank you. Thank you.

49:55

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks for sharing that.

49:55

Next question comes from David Bailey at Morgan Stanley.

50:01

David BaileyAnalyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Just got a question on anesthesia. I wonder if we can get that as a percentage of new apps revenue that would be useful. And then thinking about the uptake or the penetration of addressable markets, how would you characterize that compared to high flow? Do you think it's been faster? Is it easier? So the question is, yeah, the of new apps relevant to anaesthesia and then how the path of penetration is compared to high flow, if you could please.

50:36

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Sure, but over 10% of new apps would be anaesthesia. In terms of penetration, I think it's on a fairly similar trajectory going back to what respiratory was at the time. Maybe a little quicker. Part of that is we've accelerated the Salesforce course. Maybe a little quicker actually is where I think I'll land on that one.

51:04

David BaileyAnalyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, that's helpful. And then just pulling the pieces of gross margin together, it looks Looks like the previous estimates from tariffs was 130 annualised basis point impact. That's changed a little bit now, but now you've got some freight and other bits and pieces. So 130 previously, 90 this year plus 50 next year. We're thinking of the cumulative headwinds being 140 bips over 26 and 27 now compared to the 130 previously, which didn't have the freight and other bits and pieces in there?

51:38

Unidentified Management

Yeah, look I think that's a reasonable assumption there. Just the one little tiny nuance I'd say is that material cost increases. So we've said 70 basis points for the surcharges across freight and materials. Some of the materials we won't be buying for the full year this year, so there's probably another 20-odd basis points to come in 28 if everything stayed as it was now.

52:15

David BaileyAnalyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

52:18

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, David.

52:19

Next questions come from Craig Wong Pan at RBC. Go ahead, Craig.

52:26

Craig Wong-PanAnalyst, RBC

Great. Thank you. Look, related to that last point, I just want to understand how much worth of raw materials and finished goods did you have at the start of 27 to mitigate those impacts of higher input costs?

52:41

Unidentified Management

Yeah, look, we probably hold, and you can see in our inventory, no, fairly good levels of raw materials, you know, several months' worth of raw materials. and whilst we've been advised of some of these prices, some of them haven't kicked in yet in terms of our purchasing. So that's why we don't get the full impact this year.

53:03

Craig Wong-PanAnalyst, RBC

Okay. And then second question is, just with the Middle East conflict, that's impacted pricing, but has there been any constraints on or difficulty in obtaining raw materials?

53:15

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

I'm going to pass that question over to Andy.

53:20

Andy NicollChief Operating Officer

Hi Craig, Andy here. Yeah, we haven't seen that yet. Obviously our supply chain team got onto this very early as Lewis said in his opening remarks and they've been working really, really hard to sort of mitigate that. Sort of being a sort of medical device manufacturer, we're all over this sort of thing so they responded really, really quickly to mitigate that and keep on top of it.

53:42

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah, and when you look at the experience our supply chain team have had over the last five years, Craig, you know, I'm thinking of COVID, we're pretty seasoned. The great thing about supply chain at the moment is you get 10 years experience every 12 months.

53:59

Craig Wong-PanAnalyst, RBC

Okay, great. Thank you.

54:02

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Craig.

54:02

Next question's come from Sasha Crean at Evans of Partners.

54:07

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Thank you. I just had one follow-up. I don't think we've discussed seasonal hospitalisations, which were I think the swing factor in last year's guidance. I'm just wondering if you could provide a few comments on how that sort of played out for you over the course of 26, whether or not you think you did see the impact from the weaker flu season or whether or not maybe those, the expected impact wasn't quite as much as you were initially flagging at decided here?

54:39

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Super question, Sasha, and a pretty complex topic. But I just want to put a context on the discussion, and that is that most years generally the seasonal variation is less than 5% of our hospital business. So that's what we're talking about. And then the other thing to consider is when we're talking about it, you've got virulence, that's one thing. You've got hospital admissions, that's one thing. And then respiratory intensity, that's a whole completely different thing. And it's really admissions versus intensity that we're potentially exposed to and can move us around. And if you look at the year we've just completed, we've delivered 14% growth in hospital consumables, constant currency, with what looks like considerably lower respiratory seasonality.

So all you can really make of that today is that changing clinical practice has overridden whatever impact seasonality had. And that's actually what we've seen over the last few years as well. So then when we look at seasonality going forward, you know, how are we going to treat it? What are we going to do? I think going forward the only real implication that you can use seasonality for is that if you see a big change year on year in seasonality and that lines up with a big change in our our consumables growth, we probably need to think through what the implications of that are. So for example, if we saw a very large increase in seasonal hospitalisations and that lined up with a pretty large increase in our hospital consumables growth rate, we probably need to think about what information does that give us for the growth rate in the future.

And then you've got the opposite effect. If we see a big decrease in seasonal respiratory admissions and we've got a decrease in our growth rate, that might not be the right growth rate that we should be taking forward into the future. So I think that's the sum total extent of it. I don't want to overplay it. I don't want to overthink it. I think it's mostly about if you see a big swing year on year and it lines up with a big swing in our numbers, we need to think through. We need to be careful how we interpret that.

56:54

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Evans & Partners

Yep. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, Lewis.

56:57

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks, Sasha. I think we've got time for one more question in the queue.

57:02

That's from Christine Trin at Macquarie Bank. Go ahead, Christine.

57:08

Christine TrinhAnalyst, Macquarie Bank

Morning, everyone, and congratulations on another solid result. You mentioned before that the potential revenue impact from Middle East conflict haven't really been considered in the guidance. I was just wondering if you could give us some colour on what that might look like if the war does continue? Just any comments around magnitude and percentage of sales that may impact?

57:28

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Yeah, Christine, we have totally considered that in our guidance and what we're considering is that it won't have any impact. So hospital products used to treat patients is what our business in that part of the world is. So we don't expect any impact from a conflict. Maybe in terms of delivery times and shipping, that might not be smooth during the year, but in terms of total impact over the financial year to revenue we don't expect anything.

57:53

Christine TrinhAnalyst, Macquarie Bank

Thanks.

57:56

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Thanks very much Christine.

57:56

That concludes the time we have for questions.

58:05

Marcus DrillerVP Corporate

Please feel free to follow up with Dan or I. I'm now going to pass back to Lewis for his final remarks.

58:11

Lewis GraydonManaging Director and CEO

Okay thanks Marcus. Thanks to everyone for dialing in. Thanks for asking all the questions today. They were great and we do appreciate it. And thank you as always to the entire team at Fisher & Paiku Healthcare for your contribution towards our results and for building the momentum. And we continue to be grateful for the support of our customers, our suppliers, our clinical partners, and our shareholders.

Thank you everyone and enjoy the rest of your day.

58:38

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation and have an excellent day.

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