Gold Royalty (GROY) Q4 2025 earnings call transcript

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call to review our fourth quarter and 2025 results. Please note, for those not currently on the webcast, a presentation accompanying this conference call is available on the presentations page of our website. Some of the commentary on today's call will include forward-looking statements, and I would direct everyone to review slide two of the presentation, which includes important cautionary notes. Speaking alongside me on today's call will be Andrew Goebbels, Chief Financial Officer, John Griffith, Chief Development Officer, Jackie Presbylowski, Vice President Capital Markets.

Last week, we marked the five-year anniversary of GOLD Royalty's IPO. I'm so proud of our team and what we've accomplished in our short history. We started in March 2021 with 18 royalties on non-producing assets and no revenue. Today, we boast a portfolio of 258 royalties and streams, including eight cash-flowing assets, and we continue to selectively acquire accretive assets, including Pedro Branca in late 2025, and an additional royalty in Borborema, as John will walk through shortly. From no revenue in 2021, we passed through an important inflection point in 2025. We are proud to report a third consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, as well as another quarter of record revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash flow.

These cash flows are a manifestation of the tremendous potential we saw from the assets as we have been carefully curating our portfolio over the past five years. Potential which is not yet fully realized as we have tremendous growth and value creation still to come. Our balance sheet has been strengthened, as Andrew will discuss later on in this call.

We ended the year with no debt or convertible adventures, over $12 million in cash, a fully undrawn credit facility, and outstanding common share purchase warrants that continue to be deeply in the money. This strong balance sheet will allow us to continue to opportunistically acquire accretive assets and to consider returning capital to our shareholders.

With that, I will pass the call over to Andrew Goebbels to discuss the details of our fourth quarter results and our outlook on slide five.

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report new records for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the quarter and for the full year 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.2 million in the fourth quarter, up from $2.5 million in the previous quarter, and up from $1.2 million in the comparable quarter in 2024. Total revenue, land agreement proceeds, and interest was $5.2 million, translating to 1,255 gold equivalent ounces in the quarter. For the year ended 2025, we generated $17.8 million in total revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest, and $9.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 38% and 104% increase from the comparable period in 2024, respectively. This record year reflects the contribution of higher cash flows from the assets we added to the portfolio over the past few years and a continued focus on maintaining consistent low operating costs.

The consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow improves our liquidity position and, importantly, provides a solid foundation for funding the business moving forward. Further, our balance sheet liquidity position was boosted meaningfully from the equitization of the $40 million convertible debentures held by Queens Road Capital and Taurus Funds in November, and an upsized $103.5 million equity rise completed in December last year. The equity raise funded our $70 million paid-up rank acquisition, repaid the outstanding balance previously drawn on the RCF, brought in new institutional investors onto our share register, and left us in a positive net cash position at year-end. As we look forward to 2026, we remain well-funded. Having amended and upsized our credit facility to $150 million in February this year, and having acquired additional cash-flowing royalty on Borborema, we enter the year in a very strong financial position.

As Dave alluded, with a self-funding business that generates consistent positive free cash flow and a clean balance sheet, we now have the flexibility to execute our strategy in the long term. Our current intent is to maintain a modest cash balance and to allocate additional cash generated from operations towards growth opportunities where appropriate, while evaluating capital returns to shareholders in future periods.

And I pass the call over to our Chief Development Officer John Griffith Thanks Andrew Before the fourth quarter GOLD Royalty had not announced a material asset acquisition in over a year demonstrating our disciplined approach as we have waited patiently for the right assets at the right time Thank you. which is expected to close this year. We're very excited to add this high-quality cash-flowing asset to our portfolio. And for more information about Pedra Branca, please refer to our December 8th press release or our December 11th conference call. Links to both can be found on our website. Subsequent to year-end, on January 14, 2026, Gold Royalty announced that we had acquired an additional NSR royalty on Borborema.

The 1.5% NSR royalty importantly marked our first successful co-investment with Taurus Mining Royalty Fund. And Taurus acquired a 0.75% NSR, and Gold Royalty acquired the same 0.75% NSR, bringing our total to a 2.75% NSR plus the royalty convertible gold-linked loan. We often get asked if there are still opportunities to acquire royalties and streams in the current environment of strong prices for gold, copper, and other metals.

Our two recent transactions and other recent royalty and stream deals announced by our peers show that there definitely are. It's worth noting that both of our recently acquired royalties were acquired from third parties, the Pedro Branca Royalty from BlackRock and the Barbara Rama Royalty from Dundee Corporation.

Both of these were acquired in quasi-bilateral processes where we negotiated directly with the sellers. Across our peer group, we have also recently seen new streams written by mine operators, likely taking advantage of disparity between long-term outlooks for commodity prices between operators and streamers. And we have also witnessed corporate-level M&A. We continue to see growth opportunities across each of our four pillars of growth, namely third-party acquisitions, operator financings, corporate M&A, and our royalty generator model.

And we continue to actively pursue these opportunities in a disciplined manner. I'm pleased to say that we have a healthy pipeline of activities we're evaluating today.

And I'll now pass the call to Jackie Przolowski to review our guidance and to talk about some of our key assets.

Thanks, John. Along with our Q4 and 2025 results, we released our 2026 guidance and our longer-term 2030 outlook. We are expecting to report 7,500 to 9,300 GEO in 2026. At the midpoint of our guidance range, that's a 62% increase from our 2025 actual production of 5,173 GEO, including land agreement proceeds and interest.

First, 2026 guidance assumes an average $5,150 per ounce gold price and an average $5.75 per pound copper price, which is consistent with consensus expectations.

While our portfolio remains mostly gold-linked, our gold equivalent ounce guidance figure has some sensitivity to commodity price assumptions. We receive royalties on copper at Kozman and Pedrabranca and a stream on copper from Varys, for example. Further, we have converted land agreement proceeds and interest, which are paid in U. S. dollars, into approximately 684 gold equivalent ounces in our 2026 guidance at our assumed average gold price.

To give the market an idea of the effect of commodity prices on our guidance, we presented a sensitivity table in our press release last night, which we're also showing here on slide 9. As you can see on this table, our guidance on a GEO basis would go up with lower gold price and would go down with higher gold price due to the mechanics of calculating gold equivalent ounces.

Longer term, we have provided a five-year outlook for the second consecutive year. We expect 28,000 to 34,000 GEO in 2030, including approximately 600 GEO of land agreement proceeds and interest. At the midpoint, this represents a peer-leading over 490% increase relative to actual 2025 results. I also want to emphasize that our 2030 outlook continues to be mainly based on assets that are already largely de Over 70 of our growth to 2030 includes assets that are already permitted financed and built at least to a first phase And including the low-risk construction of satellite deposits, de-risked assets represent over 90% of that growth.

We also have a number of exciting updates in our earnings report, and I'll just highlight a few on this call. Aura Minerals has signed its road relocation agreement, which immediately unlocked mineral reserves at Boberema and will support expansion to 4 million tons per year from the current 2 million tons per year run rate.

DPM Metals has restarted the virus mine and expects to reach its full production run rate by year-end 2026. And on the project's front, Orla Mining released an updated feasibility study on South Railroad and expects to start construction mid-year 2026 on receipt of final project permits. And Block Rock Silver received its Class II air quality and surface disturbance permit, and the company believes that the permitting process is on schedule and expects to receive all permits by mid-2027. Please see our earnings released for additional asset updates. With over 250 assets in our portfolio, we continue to expect a steady stream of exciting, positive news flow. I'll pass the floor back to David for closing remarks.

Thank you, Jackie. There's indeed lots to get excited about as we look across our portfolio and the various high-quality assets ramping up and entering production. One of the key benefits to the diversified portfolio that we have assembled over the last five years is the steady flow of exciting growth catalysts at our underlying assets. These near, medium, and long-term catalysts will contribute to peer-leading growth that Jackie highlighted in our 2026 and 2030 outlooks. We continue to see compelling upside to our share price as our portfolio assets continue to develop and as the market gives us credit for this organic growth.

Our valuation could be further boosted by accretive growth, but we emphasize that we will remain patient and disciplined as we consider any acquisitions and as we review our capital allocation options going forward.

As our share price has now been comfortably above our warrant exercise price for some time, we think it's prudent to highlight this to any warrant holders on today's call. As of September 30, 2025, the company had approximately $17 million outstanding share purchase warrants, with each warrant exercisable into common shares at U. S. 2225 per share exercise price. The warrants are listed on the NYC American under the symbol GROY. WS, and they expire May 31, 2027. For more information on exercising warrants, please see our second quarter earnings press release. We invite you all to join our Q1 2026 earnings call on May 7th and our annual Capital Market Day in Toronto and online on June 18th.

Thank you, everyone, for tuning in to the earnings call. We'll now open up the call to Q&A. Operator?

Thanks, Heiko, and good morning. I'll hand that off to John Griffith to respond to.

Thank you. Heiko, I think you're absolutely right about the volatility and uncertainty in the current environment. But I don't think we can let that noise really influence our decision making. We typically look at commodity prices on a consensus basis when we're evaluating opportunities. And because of that, and the dislocation between consensus and spot prices, we've seen that in many instances, others have been willing to accept much lower rates of return on transactions than we otherwise would have. In other words, we're really staying disciplined and focused, and we will remain that way during these uncertain times.

So I don't think the current aberrations really change our view or strategy. I think regarding geographies, we're very fortunate to have 85% approximately of our net asset value in North America and the remaining 15 in several jurisdictions as well And I think we have no real pressure to go and deploy capital in parts of the world where risk is perceived to be volatile and a lot higher That's a very comprehensive answer.

Thanks, Tate. Good morning. I'll hand that off to John again.

Sorry, the question could take, could you just repeat it, please?

Yeah, sorry. I guess the focus for us remains very much on precious metals. We do feel very comfortable looking at what I would describe as the conventional or larger value LME traded commodities such as copper, zinc, and nickel. And I think it also ties in nicely with our skill set. Both management and board have a lot of experience in building and operating mines in those various commodities. I don't think you're going to see us depart materially from that strategy unless we were potentially to acquire a larger portfolio of assets which had smaller commodity-focused assets that fell outside of that ambit, if you will. And yeah, I think for us, the sale of the tungsten asset was certainly opportunistic.

The party that acquired that asset is really focused on a more sort of esoteric perspective of building a non-precious metal, non-diversified royalty company. And they were willing to pay up for an asset that had very low value, little to no value in our portfolio.

Yeah, Tate, I think that's a great question. Ironically, I think it is because of the political turmoil. Quite often I get asked, you know, why isn't the GOLD responding to, you know, war events or significant economic calamities? And I think typically what happens when those events occur is it becomes a risk off trade and risk assets are sold, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. So I actually see events like this, like the Iran war or economic calamities, like the Great Financial Crisis or COVID for that matter, as distractions from the underlying fundamentals of the commodity.

And I think in Gould's case, like every other risk asset being sold today, it is being sold off. But inevitably what happens, and invariably what's happened after these calamities in the past is when the risk trade comes back on and capital starts to be put back to work, fundamentals come back into play. And the fundamentals for gold, in my view, are irrefutable in that we're going to see continued and relentless debasement of fiat currencies given the absolute amount of debt that's being strapped on. In spite of the fact that we're seeing record revenues, fiscal revenues in the U. S. , we're seeing still record fiscal deficits and continued compounding of unsustainable debt at the U. S. government level, and for that matter, across the Western world.

And inevitably, that will lead to continued debasement of the underlying fiat currency to debase the debt. And I think those fundamentals will come back into play. And gold being the one currency that can't be printed, can't be debased, will inevitably go up as it has relentlessly for the last 50 years in spite of volatility in the short to medium term.

Thank you all for your kind attention. If you have any follow-up questions, of course, Jackie is available at jackiep. goldroyalty. com or any of us. First initial, last name at goldroyalty. com. If you have any other follow-up questions, we'll be delighted to hear from you. I hope you have a good rest of your day in spite of the volatility in the markets.