Summary
Management framed the quarter as validation of a durable gas-growth opportunity, with a record pipeline backlog and projects extending growth beyond 2029.
- $14.4B$14.4 billion backlog reflects a $5.4 billion quarterly addition, one of the largest in company history.
- Permian Link and Southeast Connector move expected project cash flows into 2030–2032, extending the growth runway.
- Management said 2026 outperformance included substantial weather, contract, rate and commodity benefits that may not recur.
- Customer dialogue remained constructive despite perceived market volatility, with demand-led projects and storage flexibility emphasized.
Guidance
- 6%Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA more than 6% above budget
- 13%Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS more than 13% above budget
- 3.6xYear-end 2026 leverage 3.6x
- $4BApproximately $4 billion annual capital spending for the next few years
- $1.5BTGP 219 South preliminary capital estimate approximately $1.5 billion for brownfield scope
- Southeast Connector in service 2030–2032
- Permian Link in service 2030
What analysts pressed on
- 01TGP 219 South commitments and scope remain under negotiation; management estimated approximately $1.5 billion for brownfield work and said final scale depends on signed shippers.
- 02Southeast Connector expansion remains uncertain; management cited significant binding open-season interest and said capacity could scale up to 3.5 Bcf per day.
- 03Permian pipeline recontracting risk was countered with expected local power demand, LNG growth and the systems’ integration with broader assets.
- 042027 outlook was declined; the CFO said 2026 is difficult to replicate because of unusual items and commodity-price uplift.
- 05Project returns and cost escalation were addressed without disclosing specific project returns; management said customer cost sharing affects required returns.
- 06Western Gateway cost overruns were not quantified; management cited prudent spending and unspecified cost protections.
Notable disclosures
- $225MApproximately $225 million of 2026 outperformance came from weather, a terminal contract buyout, a FERC true-up and favorable Waha-to-Houston spreads.
- $175MApproximately $175 million of outperformance came from commodity prices versus a $60-per-barrel budgeted WTI assumption.
- Large-load interconnection requests across the Southeast exceed 200 gigawatts, but management cautioned that not all requests would proceed or use gas-fired generation.
- Permian Link’s anchor hyperscaler values storage-linked flexibility and reliability; management said it is also pursuing additional customers.
- Management said recent sanctioned projects are demand-pull projects, with long-duration demand distinct from producer-side commitments.
Risks raised
- 2026 outperformance includes roughly $400 million from items that may not recur, including weather, one-time items and commodity prices.
- TGP 219 South scope and timing depend on customer commitments, with management saying project staging may take several quarters.
- Southeast Connector expansion depends on completing commercial agreements and confirming customer credit.
- Management said it does not require customers to secure gas supply as a condition of pipeline projects, leaving molecule procurement to customers.
- CO2 investments remain constrained by project risk despite a higher oil forward curve; management cited long project timelines and risk concerns.
Tone: Confident 0.78
Management emphasized record backlog growth, durable customer demand and strong execution, while acknowledging nonrecurring 2026 benefits and uncertainty around project scaling.
Who spoke
Company
- Rich KinderExecutive Chairman
- Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
- Dax SandersExecutive Vice President
- David MichelsVice President and Chief Financial Officer
- Unidentified Management
- Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
Analysts
- Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays
- Jeremy TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan
- Praneeth SatishAnalyst, Wells Fargo
- Manav GuptaAnalyst, UBS
- Keith StanleyAnalyst, Wolfe Research
- Jason GabelmanAnalyst, TD Cowen
- Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst, Jefferies
- Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bank of America
- Brandon BinghamAnalyst, Shawbank
- John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
- Gabriel MoreenAnalyst, Mizuho
Full transcript
Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.
Prepared remarks
Good afternoon and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kinder Morgan's third quarter 2026 earnings results conference call. Your lines aren't in listen only mode until the question and answer session of today's conference. At that time, you may press star followed by the number one to ask a question. Please unmute your phones and state your name and prompted. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan.
Rich KinderExecutive Chairman
Thank you, Michelle. Before we begin, as usual, I'd like to remind you that KMI's earnings release today in this call, include forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as well as certain non-GAP financial measures. Before making any investment decisions, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release, as well as review our latest filings with the SEC, or important material assumptions, expectations, and risk factors that may cause actual results that differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements. Let me begin by sharing some projections from credible third parties that once again support our belief that the demand for natural gas is destined to dramatically increase both in America and the rest of the world in the coming years and even decades.
Shell projects that global LNG demand will grow to nearly 750 million tons by 2050, and that's an increase of 65% from 2025. That's an enormous increase and one that we believe will especially benefit the U. S. given the preference of international customers for sourcing their supply here. On the domestic front, the North American Electrical Liability Corporation is predicting that peak demand for electricity in this country will grow by between 225 and 245 gigawatts by 2035, and obviously much of that astounding growth will be met by natural gas generation.
These two estimates just reinforce and strengthen what we believe is a bullish natural gas story. Now let me turn to our own story at Kinder Morgan. The third quarter was another good quarter force with results exceeding both the comparable period in 2025 and our budget for this year. Perhaps more importantly, we made substantial additions to our backlog of new projects.
Our additions constitute one of the largest increases in any one quarter in our corporate history and our backlog of U. S. natural gas projects now stands at an all-time record. And I would add that we expect these new projects to lead to even more expansion opportunities over the coming months and years. In a broader sense, I believe the existing new projects we announced demonstrate the strength that comes from a large, national, midstream footprint.
That footprint, which we are constantly expanding and extending, allows us to offer more diversified connectivity to our customers as they seek alternative and expanded sources of supply. To put the size and utilization of our natural gas network in perspective, I remind you that we deliver about 40% of all the natural gas in America, including approximately 40% of all LNP gas and over 50% of gas exports to Mexico.
Our network connects almost every producing basin with the great majority of demand locations throughout the country. I'm highly confident that our assets will allow us to continue to serve the multifaceted needs of our customers, and at the same time deliver real and sustainable value to our shareholders. As I've said before, but it certainly deserves repeating. Our strategy is not complicated.
We have assets that generate large amounts of recurring cash flow. We are in a business that is in need of substantial additional infrastructure because of the size and reach of our system. We're in a unique position to capture a substantial portion of that need by developing projects supported by long-term take-up pay agreements with credit worthy entities. And our strong cash flow allows us to build that infrastructure by using primarily our own cash without undue leverage. We are able to earn good returns from these investments, thus increasing our EBITDA and EPS in the years ahead.
For me, it's hard to think of a better strategy that combines consistent growth with minimal risk.
Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
And now let me turn it over to Kim. Okay, thanks, Rick. This was another outstanding order for Kinder Morgan. Adjusted EPS increased by 21%. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9%. And every one of our business segments contributed to that growth. Those results reflect both the strengths of our assets and the outstanding execution of our employees. For the full year, we expected just an EPS growth to exceed budget by more than 13%. And EBITDA to exceed budget by more than 6%. Our financial position continues to strengthen as well.
We ended the quarter at approximately 3.5 times debt to EBITDA, the low end of our targeted range. Roughly $3 billion of annual cash flow available to fund expansion CAPEX. We have significant flexibility to fund our organic growth while maintaining a strong JAP flexibility is important because our project cycle increased from 9.6 to $14 to $4 billion of order.
Added $5.4 billion in new projects and placed $700 million of projects into service. The backlog multiple remains very attractive at $5.7 ton. In the $5.4 billion of additions are two highly strategic joint venture projects. FNG Southeast Connector and NGPL's Permian Link. Together, Kinder Morgan share of these projects is approximately $4.7 billion. Those projects are supported by at least 20-year take or pay contracts with credit worthy shippers providing the type of long-term stable cash flow we seek to create.
Fortunately, Southeast Connector is contracted with strong investment grade utilities while Permian Link is contracted with an A-rated hyperscalar. These projects also highlight the quality of opportunities we see in front of us. Southeast Connector is a transformational project that connects diverse supply with one of the fastest-growing natural gas demand regions in the country. Large load interconnectional quests across the Southeast now exceed 200 gigawatts, which could represent roughly 8 PCF a day of natural gas demand if it all came to fruition and if it was all served by the gas fire generation.
Southeast Connector is designed to meet that need by delivering approximately 2.6 PCF a day of natural gas into the region. In addition, we expect this project, like many of our other large projects, to drive future expansion opportunities. Permian Link captures a similar compelling opportunity by moving abundant low-cost Permian natural gas north to meet growing power demands in the Texas Panhandle. Together, these projects demonstrate how our next work is uniquely positioned to connect growing supply basins with growing demand centers. More broadly, as Rich mentioned, the long-term outlook for natural gas remains exceptionally strong.
Would McKinsey Project North American natural gas demand to increase by approximately 46 PCF a day by 2035, driven primarily by LNG exports and power generation demand?
Projects of this size and quality do not happen by accident. The commercial creativity, customer relationships, project management, and legal expertise and the patience and perseverance required to bring these opportunities together are remarkable. And I cannot be more proud of what our team has accomplished.
These projects extend our visible growth runway. Before this quarter, most of our EBITDA from our backlogs was expected to be online by the end of 2029. With Permian Link and Southeast Connector entering service between 2030 and 2032, we have meaningfully extended the period of high quality cash flow reported by approved or paid contracts.
Simply put, we are delivering strong results today while continuing to build a longer runway for high quality future growth.
Dax SandersExecutive Vice President
And with that, I'll turn it over to Dax to give you details on our business purposes. Thanks, Kim. Starting with the natural gas business unit, transport volumes were up 3% in the quarter versus the third quarter of 2025. The incremental demand was primarily result of increased LNG feed gas deliveries on Tennessee gas pipeline and incremental demand on our intra-state system.
Natural gas gathering volumes were up 14% in the quarter from the third quarter of 2025 with most all the increase coming from our Kinderhawk system in the Hanesville, which was up 40%. As we've continued to say, demand for gas on our pipes remained high and our system remains highly utilized. While we announced the sanctioning of two very important projects today, looking forward and consistent with Kim's comments, we continue to see significant incremental project opportunities across our natural gas pipeline network, driven primarily about power and LNGD, and we will continue to pursue them aggressively.
In our product pipeline segment, the fine product volumes were down 3% in the quarter compared to third quarter of 2025, including condensate volumes were down 11%. More than half of the decline in crude volumes is explained by the removal of double H from service for the NGL conversion early in the third quarter of 2025 with the remaining decrease resulting from fewer well-connected Highland crude.
As previously announced, we, along with our partners, were proud to reach a final investment decision on our Western Gateway project during the third quarter. The project, which will fundamentally change the way clean products are delivered to the desert Southwest and Southern California will ensure the availability of these products to consumers for decades to come. Kindermore is $300 million total cash investment, which includes our $250 million contribution to the JV and a $50 million investment in our non-contributed assets has been added to our project backlog and is expected to reach in service in 2029.
In our terminal business segment, our liquid lease capacity remains high at almost 93%. Market conditions continue to remain supportive of strong rates and the utilization of banks available for use is just under 96% at our key hubs on the Houston Ship Channel and in Carteret, New Jersey. While the temporary Jones Act waiver has added some market uncertainty, our tanker fleet remains exceptionally well contracted.
Assuming likely options are exercised, our fleet is 100% leads to the rest of this year, 97% leads to 2027 and 80% leads through 2028. We have opportunistically chartered a significant percentage of the fleet at higher market rates and have an average length of firm contract commitments of almost three years. The worldwide shortage in refined product supplies and the associated price dislocations have both been significant positive for our export terminals and the Houston Ship Channel hub. In Q3, we saw 427,000 barrels a day move across our 11 docks, which represented an increase of 39% over Q3 2025 and an all-time record.
The CO2 segments saw 8% higher net oil production volumes compared to Q3 2025, which was led by an 11% increase in production at SACROP. In GL volumes were 9% higher and CO2 volumes were 3% lower.
David MichelsVice President and Chief Financial Officer
Finally, RNG volumes increased 18% as these significantly improved operations that are driving both greater uptime and hydrocarbon recovery at our facilities continued in the third quarter, and with that up and right over to David. Okay, thank you, Dax. We're declaring a quarterly dividend of 29.75 cents per share, which is $1.19 per share annualized, and an increase of 2% over 2025. We delivered a record setting once again with net income attributable to KMI and adjusted EBITDA reaching record levels for the third quarter.
A third quarter performance, I had an internal expectations with EPS 15% above budget and adjusted EBITDA 6% above our budget. And this follows a half of the year during which we achieved similar out-performally financial performance. We had another very strong quarter for the third quarter. We generated net income attributable to KMI of 764 million and EPS of 34 cents.
Those are 22 and 21% higher than the third quarter of 2025 respectively. Adjusted EPS was 35 cents, that's 21% up from last year. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% to $2.18 billion. So, importantly, as Kim mentioned, the strength was broad-based with all four business segments delivering higher-adjusted earnings year over year.
Natural GAS saw greater contributions from EPMG, Kinderhawk, TGP, and our Texas interest system. This performance was driven by greater volume and rates on capacity sales, park and loan contributions, expansion project contributions, and greater gathered volume.
Segment, benefitable commodity pricing, as well as greater butane blending volumes, partially offset by lower crude and refined product. Our terminals segment benefited from expansion projects placed into service, higher commodity prices, stronger coal and petroleum co-cantling activity with Jones Act tanker rates.
And our CO2 segment benefited from higher commodity prices, strong volume growth, particularly at SACROC, which was up 11% from last year.
Stepping back from the quarter, our year-to-date results have been exceptionally strong. Year-to-date versus 2025, EBITDA has grown 13%, and adjusted EPS is up 32%. As Kim mentioned, we now expect our full year adjusted EBITDA to be more than 6% above our budget and adjusted EPS to be more than 13% above our budget.
That represents well more than $515 million of additional EBITDA. Obviously noted, six, we've benefited from a handful of large items that may not be recurring. Winter storm fern and extended cold weather in the northeast, a terminals contract buyout, a favorable FERC rate true up, and unusually favorable Waja to Houston ship channels spread. Collectively, these items contribute approximately $225 million to our outperformants in 2026.
In addition, favorable commodity prices have contributed an additional $175 million versus our budget. If you recall, our budgeted WTI price was $60 per barrel.
Tightness continues across our U. S. infrastructure, and that provides opportunities for us to capture additional margin when disruptions occur. We expect those conditions will persist.
Balance sheet, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio ended the quarter at 3.5 times, which is down from 3.8 times at the beginning of the year. Despite spending more this year due to our monument acquisition and greater than budgeted CAPX, we expect to end the year at 3.6 times leverage. And that's an improvement from the budget of 3.8 times driven by the EBITDA outperformant.
It puts us low below the midpoint of our leverage year-to-date net debt increased $513 million. And here's a reconciliation of that. We generated $4 billion of cash flow from operations. We've spent $1.98 billion in dividends. We've $3.07 billion in capital, and that's growth sustaining and our contributions to our JVs. And then the monument acquisition was approximately $500 million. And that gets you pretty close to the $513 million debt increase.
Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
Now I'll turn it back to Kim for Q&A. Okay, Michelle, if you'll come on, we'll take questions.
Questions and answers
Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by the number one. To withdraw your question, you may press star two. Please unmute your phones and state your name when prompted. Our first color is Theresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is open.
Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays
Good afternoon, and congratulations on these major commercial milestones. I want to ask first on TGP, following a successful non-binding open season for the 219 South project. Can you talk about the progress made on solidifying customer ship or commitments at this point? And how are you thinking about the ultimate size and scope for this project, given the elevated amount of interest beyond the half of the offered, as well as the downstream growth opportunities, especially on the heels of the Southeast Connector FID. Do you think TGP will play a meaningful role in serving this incremental demand on SNG?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
Theresa, this is Stacel. How are you doing? Well, one, I'm going to break this question up in a few parts. So the open season that we had, the non-binding open season, in terms of interest, over to the UPCF of interest in that open season, where we are right now, we've been intimating to the market.
And you guys, there's a demand equation here, and ultimately we'll need to be solved with incremental molecule. We do feel 219 in some form is going to help contribute to that molecule shortfall.
When we think about what the project ultimately looks like, that's going to depend on who signs at the bottom line. One of the things that we're seeing right now is timing. There's some customers that are wrong than others. We're managing through that to try and see how we can stage these projects. It may be coming multiple forms.
If I had to kind of gauge where I see the CAPX landing there, roughly around a billion and a half dollars, depending on ultimate interest, we could adjust from there. So, strong interest. We do see the need. I think when you think about the downstream Southeast Connector, Tennessee is well-positioned to serve that. But not only that, it's also that middle system per corridor that we have that I talked about on the last call.
We see that corridor from Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, that's a growing demand center. And so, I think the opportunity is set there for incremental supply, so as well.
Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays
Thank you for that detailed answer, people. On the Southeast Connector, the press release mentioned that the project can be scaled further with additional customer commitments. What is the realistic upside here beyond the 3.1 billion net to KMI? How much bigger can this project be?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
No, too early. We were in the midst of the open season, I will tell you. We had significant interest in the open season, and this was a binding open. We're still in the process of working through the press and agreements. The interest on the commercial side has very important credit, making sure we have the credit behind. So, we're working through those details. But needless to say, we can scale this.
Up to three and a half, 3.5 B. C. F. is bought. That's right. Enough signed commitment today to support going forward in that by being the project. And then there are other customers that are interested in working with on PAs, and they may come in later, and that will cause us to scale.
It ultimately depends on who saw this.
Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next caller is Julian DeMellin Smith with Jeffery. Your line is open, sir.
Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst, Jefferies
Hey, good afternoon, team. Nicely done. Got to hand it to you. Impressive here. Let's keep focusing on the Southeast Connector while it's topical here. Maybe just to go back to that point you were bringing up on the middle system here in the power quarter. How do you think about the size and scope of that opportunity, the timeliness here? I mean, you allude to having some open-season tending here, but just what is the scope of contemplated there? You talk about scaling it up to 3.5 B. C. F. a day a moment ago in parallel, but can you elaborate maybe some other parameters and texture around there?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
Southeast Connector, we've got that open season. Yeah, we'll close. We'll get some clarity around that as far as the middle system. There are several power projects that have been evaluating, particularly on our 219 FALC project. And so really the timing there is what we're talking about. There's some that are further along than others. What we're going to have to do is really, really the project to be able to accommodate the immediate demand.
And then the team is still creatively thinking on how we can accommodate the broader interest. That's going to take a few quarters to kind of button up some form or fashion. And then ultimately, as usual, we're going to have to, we'll function when we get customers that find the bottom line.
Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst, Jefferies
Awesome. Excellent. A little bit bigger picture here. You know, after adding $5 billion this quarter, how is the greater than $10 billion commentary or opportunity set change, right? Should investors view the Southeast Connector and Permian Link as conversion from the shadow backlog and the more formal backlog? Or as you just alluded to a second, I was continued cost-peractivity, like, effectively replenish that funnel. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'd love to hear how you kind of framed that shadow today.
Unidentified Management
So, I mean, the shadow backlog, financial remaining shadow backlog, you know, as we talk to these big projects, we think, and, you know, we've talked about some of them on this call. But, you know, as a result of getting these signed up, create bottlenecks and other places that we will have to alleviate that will lead to more projects. And so, I think the industry fundamentals in natural gas, as we talked about, also in our opening comments remain very, very strong.
You know, we are confident that there will be meaningful additions, you know, converts, if you will, into the backlog.
Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst, Jefferies
Fair enough. I'll leave it. Actually, just quickly, lastly, on Southeast Connector in particular, how does it fit into the broader permitting reform regime? Just quickly, if you can comment on that.
How does it fit into the permitting reform?
Unidentified Management
Well, I think, yeah, you have to go for it. The bill that's in Congress? Indeed. You said yes. Okay. The bill that's in Congress obviously hasn't passed yet. Now, you know, the current permitting regime, I think we are very comfortable with, and, you know, had very good success working with the FARC to get M. F. the hex in South to North, which in a year, which is, you know, the fast and recent time on permits of the size.
And so, I think that the current permitting regime, we will be able to get this project done. No concerns there. I think the permit bill that is in Congress is a good one.
And I think, you know, it does some things that could help on working projects, not other problems. But for one, you know, it eliminates the state's ability to, to what I'll call, gain the 401 water permit.
It eliminates the nature as a remedy of the court, and it strengthens the nationwide as well. You know, I think it would be great if it got passed. We think it'd be very helpful and we are very supportive of it, but we are very comfortable completing these projects under the current permit in the current permitting environment.
Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst, Jefferies
Excellent. No, I appreciate it. Thank you guys. Nice to done.
Thank you. Our next caller is Jeremy to net what JP Morgan. All right.
Jeremy TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan
Good afternoon. I'm wondering, I guess, as you think about, you know, what, what could be coming forward here. Do you see other projects of this type of size or would these kind of like the two big ones that you've seen and how do you think about run rate cap access. Okay.
Rich KinderExecutive Chairman
Let me say it's hard to project exactly what this is going to be coming in, but I mean, people just talked about another billion and a half projects and, you know, we've talked about other projects that we think will come about as a result of Southeast connector. So, you know, I think the reason for the shadow backlog back in the beginning was, you know, was because people did not believe in the opportunity set that we were seeing on natural gas. And so we were providing this number to try to help you understand the opportunity set. I think, you know, at this point with a $14.4 billion backlog, you know, I hope we've established some credibility about being able to bring these to bring these things.
So, with respect to run rate, I think, you know, the, you know, it's probably going to be around $4 billion ish for the next few years in terms of the CAPEX that we would expect.
Jeremy TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan
Got it. That's very helpful there. Thanks. And David want to pick up. I think on some of the comments you laid out when looking forward to 27 some one time ops upside optimization that I would imagine is not baked into the guide for next year. And it seems as far as major projects coming online, it's more tried in, but that's very late 27 more 28 waited. I know it's premature to ask, but just any other thoughts as we think about 27 when we are modeling it, the EBITDA?
David MichelsVice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we're going to avoid giving in previewing the 2027 for right now. But, but yeah, I think it's important to note that some of those, some of those items that we experienced this year. You know, it's unlikely that we're going to see those again next year, you know, winter weather is always hard to predict, but we're not experienced. We're not going to go for a budget of colder or more severe winter weather than we normally do. And then the commodity price uplift piece that just depends on you guys all have your own commodity act.
So you can you can put that in there. We'll give you the sensitivities. Let me just address, you know, you know, 20 data level in the middle of our budget problem.
You know, it'll bring in quite a bit of cash through that, you know, because those projects aren't evenly over all the years, the growth is not going to be even every single year. You know, example of that is, you know, try to contract to be the dot comes off.
You know, 26, because of these items is going to be a difficult year to replicate, but the underlying. So let's hear all remains.
Jeremy TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan
Got it. Thank you. I'll leave it there.
Thank you. Our next caller is Pernite Satish with Wells Fargo. Your line is open, sir.
Praneeth SatishAnalyst, Wells Fargo
Thanks. Good afternoon. And congrats on incredible quarter here with project FIDs. Maybe just, you know, going back to TGP 219 south. I guess we were a little bit surprised with the 1.5 billion capex estimate seems lower than we would have thought. I guess does that 1.5 billion get you all the way to a two BCF per day project or is that based on the 500 and I'm CF per day open season that you went out with. I guess where does this project, you know, transition from brownfield to greenfield?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
It depends on the the shipper receipt deliveries, right? I mean, I can tell you, you know, if we scale to a 2 to 3 BCF number would be higher than the 1.5 billion. We're really focused on at this point, just the brownfield component. And then ultimately we'll adjust accordingly with incremental value, Matt. And that's the way I would think about that.
Praneeth SatishAnalyst, Wells Fargo
Okay, that makes sense. And then maybe switching to the Permian here. So Permian link adding another 2.8 BCF per day of takeaway.
I guess how do you think about the risk of over building in the Permian? I mean, I know that you're protected on this project because of the take or pay contracts, but I guess I'm thinking more about, you know, some of the, some of the other pipes, some of your older pipes like Gulf Coast Express and windows come off contract. Do you see any risk there on the re-contracting side or do you think, you know, we're all too conservative with our Permian supply growth estimates here on the gas side and there's going to be enough gas to fill all these pipes?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
Here's what I think of both those pipes. We're, you know, our interest state system. You know, I talked about this on the last call, our Permian highway and DCX. They're in the heart of the demand centers that are coming in and further developing. Our focus has shifted from, you know, to really focus on these demand poles. What we see there, especially across our PHP pipeline system, is we see a, you know, power demand center for the local warming. And so to the extent that there's any push pullback by any of the producers that are on the pinning the project, we see demand pole. The same thing is out there in our Gulf Coast systems. You know, they were both of these pipes.
Some of the first pipes spoke, so perspective, relatively low on the cost spectrum. And so what we see there is GCX. There's so much incremental LNG demand that you have to count. And so I think we feel pretty good about that. And then overall, this has been on market pull. So we see those under pin by long term contracts or portfolio perspective. We feel pretty good. I mean, it's a point we've got like 6,000 miles of interest a pipe and 145 PCF of storage and, you know, those pipes tie into that, you know, are part of that system and tie into a lot of demand. And so we feel good from a demand pole standpoint that we can continue those pipes will continue that opportunities.
Praneeth SatishAnalyst, Wells Fargo
I understand. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next caller is Manav Gupta with UBS.
Manav GuptaAnalyst, UBS
Good afternoon. Just for the record, we always viewed your claims of 10 billion shadow backlog pretty credibly. And you did say that the two projects add further credibility. Even if they would not have been announced, we would have been very confident that your backlog would end over well over 10 billion before year end. So just wanted to put that out there.
Quick question. I wanted to go a little to Trident. There's a lot of gas getting on the golf course and you have the ability to eventually move it around. So can you give us an update on what the phase one and phase two of Trident is looking like and how you'll be able to help other industrial companies and LNG producers by being able to move the gas around cost.
Unidentified Management
Okay. Let me talk. And we see significant demand developing there as well. So, you know, as Rich alluded to earlier, you get these stems inside and you get ancillary secondary and tertiary expansions off of the stem. So we feel pretty good about that. And we think we can help on the demand side as the demand develops.
Manav GuptaAnalyst, UBS
Perfect. My quick follow up was a little bit just focused on the Florida gas market. It's a steadily growing gas market. Thank you.
Unidentified Management
Okay. Well, I will talk broadly. You know, as you know, we're not the operator FGT. We'll let energy transfer talk about the details, but I will tell you this. You know, we've been talking about systematically in the Southeast. You know, we see we see strong demand in Florida. We do.
The FGT sanction is new projects already, obviously in discussions with other customers on future potential expansions. We see the demand profile of being strong. And so I'll just leave it at that. And, you know, we're not the operator there. We work with the operator, but we feel pretty about that as well. And it's not just FGT. We also can help them in that growing market.
Manav GuptaAnalyst, UBS
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next caller is Jean and Sal Berry with Bank of America.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bank of America
Hi, congrats on the great quarter. Can you speak to whether the anchor hyperscaler of Permian link is planning to be online prior to when Permian link starts and you'll kind of replace it as the gas source. Or if you're planning to ramp together and so your timing is basically linked to their timing.
Unidentified Management
So without getting into the customer details, I'll tell you, we are trying to accommodate multiple customers on this project. I mean, we've got an anchor hyperscaler, but we had significant interest. We're also talking to those other customers. I think the anchor, the anchor tenant obviously is driving the need for speed. And I think one of the benefits that Permian link brings to the power market, as we've talked about before, is the link to storage and the flexibility and reliability that helps these hyperscalers achieve their seven nines of reliability.
I think that's a real differentiator here, you know, the next phase. You know, we look at all of our storage facilities to see where we can kind of enhance service and flexibility, and that's what I think differentiates this.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bank of America
That makes sense. Thanks. And then building on Theresa's earlier question, do you anticipate all the gas that's feeding Southeast corridor? It's like, well, it's substantially all originate from Appalachia. And if that's the case, would you potentially require even more expansion than just TGP can provide?
Sital ModyVice President (President, Natural Gas Pipelines)
One of the beauties of kind of a location we've picked is we've got access to multiple pipeline corridors, right? We've got interconnects to Tennessee. Selfishly, we want to grow Tennessee, but we have interconnects to Columbia gas.
We've got interconnect with TECCO. We've got interconnects planned with several other major interstates there. And ultimately, those pipes also have forward haul, back haul capabilities. And so when you think about where the supply could come from, all we said, we need incremental molecules to move not shift gas on gas competition until you basically could get a molecule from the Gulf Coast. To that point, we have all of these major from including Tennessee, and then also from the Appalachia, Marshall of Southwest, Utica, down to that point. And so it's multiple basins that can kind of serve that take off point. That's the beauty of it.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bank of America
That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next caller is Brandon Bingham. Let's go, Shabank. Your line is open, sir.
Brandon BinghamAnalyst, Shawbank
Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to maybe kind of go back to the U. S. Gold Coast LNG dynamics. And in particular, as it relates to Permian and Haynesville as the supply source, obviously some puts and takes with both, but just with the rate of change in Permian gas here and maybe not the most favorable price signals for broader Haynesville development.
Just how do you see those two basins playing out in the fight for U. S. Gulf Coast capacity and who could be the primary driver there?
Unidentified Management
We said all along that we believe it's going to be all of the above. You're going to need, we see the demand profile that we started off with.
It's significant. That's significant growth. And it's going to take more than those basins to satisfy that growth. So we think there's plenty of the key is going to be building that infrastructure in the middle, which we're really focused on. And then ultimately, this will take care of itself. And I mean, if you look at Woodmack numbers, and I think pretty similar to our internal numbers, you know, they've got Haynesville growing by 13 B. C. F. You know, Permian growing by a little over 10 and Marcel is growing.
So those are the three big producing basins that are helping to get that B. C. F. of growing now and 20.
We need them all.
Brandon BinghamAnalyst, Shawbank
No, it's yeah, absolutely fair. And then just maybe quickly kind of going back to those Woodmack numbers or just the. Anybody who's kind of put together the longer dated total gas demand picture would be kind of curious to hear your commentary and perspective just around like a capture rate to Kinder Morgan of all of that, like looking at the.
Unidentified Management
I mean, there's there's no science behind this other than we move about 40% of the gas in the U. S. market. And so we move about 50% of the gas to Mexico 40% going to LNG and 45% of the power demand across the south. So, I mean, if you want, I mean, I think that's good numbers and.
Brandon BinghamAnalyst, Shawbank
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next color is Keith Stanley with Wolf Research. Your line is open, sir.
Keith StanleyAnalyst, Wolfe Research
Good afternoon. First wanted to clarify the project. Your sanctioning today. Does that include the extension line up to the Nashville area? And then if you could comment at all on the phasing for both SEC and Premier and link. You know, they start up in the fourth quarter of 2030. When would you get to the targeted build multiple, but.
Unidentified Management
Yes, it does include SEC does include the Greenfield line. I mean, link it comes online in 2030. And then on SEC, it comes on 2030, 2031 and 2032.
Keith StanleyAnalyst, Wolfe Research
Got it. Thank you for that. Second one on Western Gateway. So you're investing 250 million and contributing SFPP for your interest and. Yes, I think is constructing most of it. How does risk sharing work in that JV for the investment in the event there were. Cost overruns or delays during construction. Would you have to fund your share that or is there a separate mechanism given how you're contributing to the JV.
Unidentified Management
Let me say a couple of things. One is, I think we're being very prudent in approaching this project in terms of spending capital until we get more comfort and make sure we're we can get built. And then secondly, what I'm not going to go into a lot of detail about it, but that we do have certain cost protections, you know, against costs.
Keith StanleyAnalyst, Wolfe Research
That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next caller is John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open, sir.
John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
And team, thanks for the time. I wanted to pick up on kind of the general tone of this and Kim, you answered it a little bit and certainly the backlog increase is a bit of an answer. But there has been at least a perceived kind of flow down and kind of broader contracting activity, you know, some volatility in the markets.
I'd love to see here from you guys like, has the tone with customers changed all that much for the last couple months, you know, compared to let's say earlier this year?
Unidentified Management
No, I mean, we haven't seen, I think, you know, our customers continue to gauge and we continue to look for our opportunities. I think they see this, you know, as we become an increasingly globally connected market, you know, I think I think there's been more focus on how to handle some of the volatility through our storage assets. And so we've just seen the dialogue continue. It's been good.
John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
That's great. And then when we look at the implied returns on these new projects being sub six times, or if you look at something like the, you know, billions, CAPEX per BCF of capacity, numbers kind of going up over time, can you just touch a little bit about kind of customer willingness to kind of take some of these higher implied rates?
And what that means maybe from looking at a kind of producer side versus the demand side customer. Thank you.
Unidentified Management
A couple of things. One thing is, you know, one mile or not, you know, that's largely a function of a couple of things. One steel product, we have not, we didn't change our returns or decrease those. And again, they also the increase in the materials cost.
John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Any comments on kind of customer mix in terms of producer willingness to engage versus the demand side? Thanks.
Unidentified Management
All of a sanctioning today are demand pool. And that is our problem when we do these projects, because I think that demand can be based on the coming goes. Some of them have been there for long. The demand pool, you know, it is there for decades, the customers on these projects.
John MackayAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
Appreciate the time. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next caller is Spiro. Do not split city. Your line is open, sir.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst
Thanks, operator for your team. I want to start first with project timing. You talk about adding cash flow after that 2032 timeframe, but it sounds like you're still filling in some growth for 29 and 2030. Kim, you also mentioned a $4 billion spending cadence from here. And on my map, PGP 2019 South should pretty much get used to that level once it's FID. So I want to understand how you're thinking about, I guess, what's needed to fill out more growth in 29 and 2030. Or if we should expect most of the major projects announcements from here beyond PGP, of course, maybe be more weighted or added to 2030 plus timeframe.
Unidentified Management
Well, 29 and 2030 is, you know, we're getting SMG South system for is coming online. Q for 28 and Q for 2029. So that'll drive growth in 29 and 2030. And then I think in my mid year, 2029 and then these projects, you know, you'll get fourth quarter probably roughly you'll get.
Is that said, every, it's not going to be exactly the growth rate every year. It'll vary year in and year out, but seven times multiple as we get these things. These are again, backside to pay contracts with either credit worthy entities or that have significant collateral posted.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst
Got it. Second question, talk about tried, but I want to go to the other side of the Permian and go to Arizona. Hearing more on the utility side about maybe the potential need for another pipeline just given some utility plans in Arizona, West Valley and some data center development there. You of course had copper state connector at one point. It's just curious about maybe the prospects you see to make another move into Arizona.
Unidentified Management
Look, I mean, we do see opportunities, you know, both, you know, we have both of our legs pipeline, go to the air zone in Mexico. And I would have the eye on the chair. We see significant, we do see significant power demand there. We also see traditional conversion, you know, clamp conversions as opportunities on the Western side really to comment on kind of where and how those get to prevent. We do have discussions on going back as well. I'll leave it there.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst
Thanks, everyone.
Thank you. Our next caller is Gabe Maureen with mazuho. Your line is open, sir.
Gabriel MoreenAnalyst, Mizuho
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. I'm not sure if it's allowed, but I'd like to ask some questions on your non natural gas businesses.
Right, right. So.
Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
Okay, thank you, Kim. One, I was going to ask just with the four curve on crude oil have moved up nicely here in 27 and beyond whether that puts some co two expansions. Back into play, potentially, and then also, I think there may be some inorganic opportunities out there on R and G. I'm just curious your thoughts on potentially expanding that business as well.
Gabriel MoreenAnalyst, Mizuho
Yeah, thank you for talking to me about.
Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
Yeah, no, as you know, a part and the four curve has come up, but it's still we can do and the ability, but it's really no different in terms of her looking at her and will be.
Tising that curve was just called risk associated with that. And so there was some concerns then we do on businesses.
And then on R and G, I don't think we can really kind of talk about, you know, ongoing processes where I need to kind of look.
R and G business. I mean, we did have to struggle, but we do have a team that has learned and who knows how to operate these at this point. And so I think we've developed some expertise there. But, you know, we also have lessons learned that we would take into account if it's anything we look at. And then, I mean, to Anthony's point on the CO2 stuff, I mean, you know, when we look at those, you know, those are long-term projects, and so we've had $85.
Gabriel MoreenAnalyst, Mizuho
Thanks, Anthony. Thanks, Cameron. If I could just squeeze one more on the back end. I'm just curious sort of on a double H and outrigger update. It seems like there's some shifts going on there in the G&P landscape in the box and just wondering if that makes you more or less inclined to invest more capital up there.
Kimberly DangChief Executive Officer
Look, we've invested significant capital up there. We've got, I think we're pretty well positioned for what we see coming. And we can always adjust if we see the macro environment change a little bit. I think where I would take it is. We're sitting in a good spot. We've got the infrastructure we need to accommodate and growth, then, Mike.
Gabriel MoreenAnalyst, Mizuho
Great. Thank you.
Our next caller is Jackson Evern with TPH research. Your line is open, sir.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, TPH Research
Thanks for taking my question. Maybe back on gas supply. Whether it's Walha, the Gulf Coast or the southeast, you know, it definitely feels like there's a fight for gas. As a part of any of these projects, if you helped customers or was a contingent on them also signing supply agreements with producers just to make sure they could fill their up to you.
Unidentified Management
The answer is your latter questions. No, we don't do anything contingent, but I mean, I look, we explain the macro environment. They have to make their own judgments on this. I think there's plenty of resource. It's a price function. There's a there's a dry gas window. There's a associated gas window. And then there's other basins in and around that can help meet the demand. If it's, you know, once again, it's a function of supply and demand. And there's other basins that can feed to our networks and ultimately get into to serve the pipelines that we have from different areas, for example, the evil first and go the other direction as well.
So I would leave it, I think it's broad enough to understand that there's going, you know, they need to secure a molecule. I think we make sure to end the rest.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, TPH Research
That makes sense. And then maybe a quick clarifying note. When you mentioned that 200 gigawatts in the southeast equating to about eight BCF a day, is that a risk number? It feels a little lower than the general 150 MMCF a day per gigalot that most people use.
Unidentified Management
I mean, I just to keep my mind. It's an efficient plan. An efficient plan. And look, that was likely all the connection requests, assuming they all go and that's all natural gas. And so, you know, it'll be in combination.
The point is there is huge amount of demand growth in the southeast. And, you know, that's part of what southeast connector is across.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, TPH Research
Got it. Appreciate the time. Thanks all.
Thank you. Our next caller is Jason Gableman with TD Cowan. Your line is open, sir.
Jason GabelmanAnalyst, TD Cowen
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask about Permian link and your kind of targeted IRRs. You talk about kind of, I think, mid teen aftertax IRRs and I wonder given, you know, this project with only one anchor shipper has some perception of higher risk. Did that require you to kind of construct the project for a higher IRR or you feel like the risk profile of this project is similar to your existing business?
Unidentified Management
Look, we approach this project the same way we approach all of our other projects, which is popping down on the risk return threshold, meaning that if a customer is willing to share in some of the costs. Then we can move down the return threshold a little bit. If the customer is not willing to share and cost over runs, then we need a higher return.
And so, you know, we have some flexibility in how we approach that. And then as we negotiate, you know, our customers at times have a preference between, you know, hey, I don't want to cost share. I want you to take the cost for us. And that's one rate and we put them one rate. And then if they're willing to share in the cost for us, there's another rate. The other thing I'd say is, you know, it has the ability we can add much to this lead to even.
It's important, you know, when we talk about the scale of this product, I mean, the scope of this project, we have capabilities to serve incremental. And we're talking to the incremental customers to basically fulfill the back.
Jason GabelmanAnalyst, TD Cowen
Got it. Thanks for that. My other question is a bit separate. As you kind of pursue connectivity to move more gas from the Marcellus. I'm wondering if there's anything to be gained to move further kind of upstream into Marcellus GMP. Would you get anything? Is there any commercial value for controlling more of the gas upstream from your pipes or not?
Unidentified Management
Not really at this point. I mean, look, we have some pretty good customers over our own that are very sophisticated in doing that. And, you know, I think we stick to what we do best, which is build large scale infrastructure very similar to the power. So we're not focused on power. Focus on building pipeline infrastructure. And so I think we would, we would collaborate with us to do that. And I think that's probably the best.
Yeah. And I think there's a very established in that. And so, you know, typically they're going to have an income.
Jason GabelmanAnalyst, TD Cowen
Great. Thanks for the time.
Thank you. Our next caller is Harry. My chair with Barclays. Your line is open, sir.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Barclays
Hi, thanks. Good afternoon. You know, both Southeast Connector and Permian link are being developed to JVs. I'm curious how you plan to balance contributing capital into those JVs from KMI, at least initially versus, you know, using what I think appears to be pretty decent balance sheet capacity, both those JVs during the construction phase.
Unidentified Management
I think, you know, it's going to be, it's going to be a combination of, you know, the JV funding a portion of it and contributing in capital. So I think, you know, those JVs have nice, they can go to the capex.
We can, we can take on incremental debt at those JVs. If we do that, though, and as to do it in such a, well, we will do that, but our plan is to do it in such a way to maintain the existing ratings at those JV pipes. We'll be some capital in which case we will make equity contributions.
And so now, you know, we also have flexibility given, you know, on sheet is in our cash flow. We can fund that 100%. We could fund that capex 100%.
Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Barclays
Thank you.
Mr. Kinder, at this time we are showing no further questions, sir.
Rich KinderExecutive Chairman
Okay. Well, let me just conclude with two remarks. Again, I want to say, and Kim mentioned this number, that if you look at the returns expected on this $14.4 billion of backlog, that's $2.5 billion of additional EBA DOT. And if you look at that in terms of where we are presently, that pushes us between $11.5 billion of EBA DOT. The other thing I would mention is last call, there was some, let me call it, skepticism about whether we could really bring these projects along.
And I think I made the remark, well, we have to get the horses in the corral. I just want to say, we've got a hell of a lot of those horses in the corral now with the saddles on, but we've got more horses just outside the corral. And I think you're going to see them, and they want to come in.
That would be the message for the future, but thank you all for your good questions. We appreciate it's been a great quarter, and we hope to bring you more good news in the future.
Thank you. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time, and have a great rest of your day.
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