Altria (MO) Q1 2023 earnings call transcript

Thanks, Katie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics, and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at Altria. com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2022.

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our board. We report our financial results in accordance with U. S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at Altria. com.

Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

Thanks, Matt. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We are off to a strong start and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against full-year plans. Our tobacco businesses perform well in a challenging macroeconomic environment, and we announced exciting progress toward our vision.

Highlights from our first quarter included strong adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 5.4 percent, resilient in-market performance from our leading brands, including Marlboro and Copenhagen, and continued volume and share growth from on. And announcements made at our investor day, including updates on our pending acquisition of Enjoy, the unveiling of our exciting smoke-free products and development, and the introduction of our 2028 enterprise goals.

Let's now review first quarter results in more detail, beginning with the macroeconomic environment and its impact on industry cigarette volumes. In the first quarter, consumer discretionary income levels remained under pressure due to the cumulative effects of higher inflation over the past year. As a reminder, the cigarette industry experienced a higher rate of volume decline beginning in the second quarter of 2022 as smokers shifted their purchasing behaviors. as a result of widespread inflation and the rapid increase in gas prices that were exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

While gas prices began to recede in the second half of last year, higher inflation persisted across other goods and services, and cigarette volumes remained under pressure. Moving into the first quarter of 2023, the cumulative effects of inflation over the past several quarters continue to impact tobacco consumers' discretionary income and tobacco industry volumes. We will continue to monitor these factors and their impact on tobacco consumers as we progress throughout the year.

Sal will provide additional color on industry volume in his remarks. Let's now turn to the oil tobacco category. We are excited by the continued growth of oral nicotine pouch products, which grew their share of the total oral tobacco category for the 20th consecutive quarter. Oral nicotine pouches grew 7.1 share points year over year, and now represent 26.2% of the oral tobacco category. Encouragingly, continued oral nicotine pouch growth was the primary contributor to the estimated 1% increase in total oral tobacco volumes over the past six months.

Felix grew unreported shipment volume to 25.2 million cans during the first quarter, an increase of 38%. On continued its momentum at retail, growing its share of the total oral tobacco category by 2.4 share points to 6.5%. And ONN continued to grow its share of the nicotine pouch category, reaching 24.6% in the first quarter, up 3.3 percentage points.

Notably, ONN outgrew ZEN sequentially on an absolute basis in 50,000 stores. Helix delivered these impressive results as Onn's retail price grew 7% sequentially and 32% versus the year-ago period. We believe Onn's ability to continue to grow share while effectively reducing its promotional investment demonstrates the strength of its product portfolio and brand equity. Felix is continuing its focus on strategically investing behind the brand as the category grows and remains committed to achieving profitability in 2025.

Let's now move to eVapor, which has been the most successful category in the U. S. in transitioning smokers to alternative products. We believe the category is continuing to undergo a significant reset, and we estimate that first quarter e-vapor volumes decreased 11% versus a year ago and 1% sequentially. We have observed a decline in traditional multi-outlet and convenience channel volumes, which we believe is primarily a result of the FDA marketing denial orders issued for Juul and MyBlue. This volume decline has been partially offset by increased volume in non-traditional channels, such as e-commerce and vape stores.

We are excited about our pending acquisition of Enjoy and its portfolio of e-vapor products. Enjoy is the only company to receive a marketing granted order for pod-based product. We continue to believe the strength of our commercial resources can benefit smokers and vapers across the U. S. and expand smoke-free competition in stores where Enjoy Ace has not been distributed.

The completion of the Enjoy transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including clearance from the Federal Trade Commission. Moving to the regulatory environment, we remain optimistic about the future of harm reduction in the U. S. and we continue to encourage the FDA to make more progress for the benefit of the 47 million tobacco consumers. In February, the FDA provided a response to the Reagan-Udall Foundation's assessment of FDA's tobacco operations. are encouraged that the agency recognizes some important areas for improvement, including developing and communicating a five-year strategic plan, improving transparency and defining more efficient product pathways, increasing enforcement of marketing denial orders, and exploring ways the agency can and should address nicotine misperceptions through communications. We look forward to learning more details on these efforts.

In addition, FDA enforcement is critical to making continued progress toward reducing youth usage of e-vapor products. The FDA has the necessary enforcement tools, and we encourage them to take the appropriate action against non-compliant manufacturers. We continue to believe that harm reduction, not prohibition, is the best path forward, and we have made this clear in the public comments we submitted in response to the FDA's proposed menthol ban. Our comments highlight the many unintended consequences of prohibition, including the adoption of adulterated and unregulated products and the development of illicit markets. Unfortunately, we believe a number of those consequences are playing out in California, where a ban on flavored nicotine products went into effect in late 2022.

Our operating companies immediately ceased their shipment of products to California wholesalers that we determined were not compliant with the law. Their brands continue to perform well in this state, with Marble and Copenhagen growing retail share sequentially. However, we remain concerned with the lack of enforcement in the state as some flavored products remained in the market. We also believe some manufacturers have introduced new products or rebranded existing ones to sidestep the purpose of the law. In March menthol cigarettes still represented nearly 40 of the volume sold in the multi channel in California an increase of 1 percentage points from January Additionally, we have seen evidence that some California smokers are self-mintolating their cigarettes using alternative products such as flavor cards and mint oil drops.

We have also observed flavored e-vapor products in the market that appear to have been renamed to mislead state regulators. And trade dynamics in surrounding states suggest that some smokers are crossing state borders to purchase menthol products. For example, the share of menthol in Nevada increased 1.3 percentage points sequentially in the first quarter to 37.4%. We believe this is significant, as the total share of menthol in Nevada has not been greater than 36.5% over the past four years. Compliance remains a top priority, and our government affairs teams are engaging with California government officials to encourage them to enhance enforcement and to hold all manufacturers to the same standard. Our goal is for policymakers to embrace harm reduction as the proper framework for tobacco and nicotine product regulation.

In fact, public opinion strongly favors harm reduction over prohibition, and science shows a significant public health benefit of moving smokers away from from combustible products toward a smoke-free future. As we described at our Investor Day, we are continuing our efforts to create the conditions for harm reduction to succeed through advocacy, engagement, and our actions.

I believe we are well positioned for success in 2023 and beyond. And while the external environment remains dynamic, I am confident that we have the tools in place to succeed. We have amazing brands, sound strategies, and most importantly, talented and dedicated employees. With these things in mind, we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2023 full-year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.98 to $5.13. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 3% to 6% from a $4.84 base in 2022, and excludes the potential financial impacts of the pending Enjoy transaction.

I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.

Thanks, Billy. In the smokeable product segment, we continue to execute our strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles over the long term, while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of our smoke-free portfolio.

Smokeable segment adjusted operating companies' income was essentially unchanged, and the segment expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 60.4%, driven by strong net price realization of 10.9%. As a reminder, manufacturer price realization does not reflect the retail price change. At retail, Marble's net pack price increased 6.8% in the first quarter compared to last year.

Total smokable segment reported shipment volumes declined by 11.1% in the first quarter, as an 11.4% decline in cigarette volumes was partially offset by modest growth in cigars. When adjusted for trade inventory movement, calendar differences, and other factors, we estimate that segment domestic cigarette volumes for the first quarter declined by 11% and that industry volumes declined by 9% over the same period. As Billy mentioned, we believe that industry volume trends have been negatively impacted by the cumulative effects of higher inflation, and we expect volume declines to moderate over time as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.

At retail, the discount segment grew 1.8 share points in the first quarter and 5.10 sequentially. We believe some smokers today are trading down as a result of adverse financial conditions. We continue to see increased competitive activity in the discount segment, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at deep discount levels.

Marble share declined two-tenths sequentially and six-tenths versus the year-ago period, Partially driven by the discount dynamics that I described, we have also seen a decline in Marlboro's menthol share of the total category as a result of the California flavor ban and increased competitive activity from premium menthol brands in the balance of the country.

However, we believe that Marlboro remains the aspirational brand in the category as it retained the vast majority of its share in this challenging environment, growing its share of the premium segment to 58.5%, an increase of one-tenth sequentially and seven-tenths year-over-year, while other brands ceded share in the segment. And we believe that PMUSA has the appropriate tools to navigate this challenging environment. For example, we recently announced a series of investments behind the Marlboro Black family of products, which are intended to provide additional support for price-sensitive Marlboro smokers.

Included in these investments is the introduction of Marlboro Black Gold Pack non-Metal offerings with a smooth flavor and rich taste. These products are intended to bolster the offerings within the Marlboro Black family of products and will be available nationwide beginning in May.

Our RGM and advanced analytics capabilities inform the geographies and promotional rates for these strategic investments, allowing us to be precise with our spend while supporting our overall strategy for the segment. And as a result of the flavor ban in California, PMUSA shipments to California retailers declined 12.8% in the state, while reported industry shipments to retailers declined 18.8%. We've included more details related to first quarter California market dynamics in our metrics document that is available on Altria. com.

Moving to the oral tobacco product segment, adjusted OCI grew 2.2% in the first quarter, and the segment delivered strong adjusted OCI margins of 69.3%. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 1.8%, as growth in on was more than offset by lower MST volumes. When adjusted for calendar differences in trade inventory movements, we estimate that first quarter oral tobacco segment volumes declined by an estimated 3%.

Oral tobacco product segment retail share declined 1.8 percentage points, as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the continued growth of bond. We continue to be encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products as ONN continued to grow share in a competitive category and Copenhagen remained the category leader.

Turning to our investment in ABI, we recorded $180 million of adjusted equity earnings for the quarter, up 28%. We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders.

Our balance sheet remains strong, and as of the end of the first quarter, our debt-to-EBIT ratio was 2.1. In February, we retired $1.3 billion of notes that came due with available cash. And as part of the ICOS agreement we announced last fall, we expect to receive the remaining $1.7 billion plus interest from Philip Morris International by July of this year.

We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our focus on significant capital returns. We demonstrated this commitment in the first quarter by paying approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and announcing a new progressive dividend goal that targets mid-single-digit dividend growth annually through 2028.

Due to the timing of our announcement of the Enjoy transaction, we did not repurchase any shares in the first quarter. As of March 31st, we have $1 billion remaining under the current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of this year.

With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on Altria. com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other items. Let's now open the question and answer period.

Operator, do we have any questions?

Good morning, Bonnie.

Sure. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. I think I'm trying to take it in parts. I think when you think about the consumer, you know, we tried to highlight in their remarks where you're seeing the cumulative impact of high inflation across all of their spending categories. So it's not just high inflation in a quarter, it's the cumulative impact of that through time. I think certainly you're seeing, you know, interest rates climb, which is impacting consumers' mortgages, credit cards, car loans. And underneath all that, to respond to the consumer, we're seeing accelerated debt as well as decline of savings rates. So they're using what they have available to them, but it's the cumulative impact of that.

It's not new to the cigarette space. I think you can go back in history a bit, and we've seen other instances where the consumer came under extreme pressure. You can look at the 08-09 period or the 01-02 period, and you see where the consumer in those instances were under pressure because of the recessions that were taking place. Here at the other factors I described, we felt like we have the tools in place. I think you see the resiliency of Marlboro in the marketplace, gaining share in the premium space. Certainly, we've seen competitors, you know, I'll call it using your term, Bonnie, renting share at the bottom, where they're pricing some of their discount brands at deep discount levels.

And really, if you think about our strategy in the cigarette space, it's to maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and the growth areas. I think when you think about the question about price elasticity, yeah, we made the minor adjustment at investor day, but if you look at even the decomposition that we provide in our metrics, you can see that's been pretty consistent over the past four periods that we showed on a 12-month moving. Really don't see anything there from a standpoint of the consumer, anything, any changes in the price elasticity other than the minor adjustment that we made going into investor debt.

Yeah, I appreciate the question, Bonnie. And I'm sure you've seen with your connections to retail as part of that price announcement, we also made a separate announcement making some adjustments to promotional spend in the marketplace. Those adjustments are really down at the local level. And what we were seeing were pockets of area where we felt like Marble Mint Ball was under pressure, and Sal highlighted in his remarks the stepped-up promotional spin by a competitor in the Mint Ball space. So we're making some adjustments there, using various packings within the Marble franchise, depending on what resonates with the consumer in those localities. Some of the other adjustments are related to exactly your question, where we see the consumer under extreme economic pressure, and we're making some adjustments within the Marlboro franchise on promotional spend to Cataract and give them a place where they can continue to engage with Marlboro.

It's not new. We've done this before, Bonnie. I'm sure you're well aware whether you think about Marlboro Special Blend in history, which is now Special Select in the marketplace.

What it allows us to do is to keep the consumer who aspires to be a Marlboro consumer engaged with Marlboro, And then as their economic conditions change, we can actually shrink that promotional discount to the mobile mainline. And what we see through time is it's actually much more efficient and effective because we see, going back in history, when we did it with Special Blend, some of the consumers, as we shrunk that discount, popped back to Mainline, and some of them stuck with Special Blend because it was a flavor that they enjoyed. So we feel like we have the tools available to us, and we'll continue to monitor. all those adjustments that we announced for effective May are included in the reaffirmation of the guidance.

Sure.

Good morning, Vivian.

Yeah, I mean, certainly you saw that overall for the quarter Marlboro was up in share. it's telling that the consumer continues to choose Marlboro as the brand of choice. I think when you see that, it's in line with some of the previous studies where consumers, when menthol is banned and they no longer have access, tend to go to the non-menthol space. And I think that's what you're seeing with Marlboro and the strength of Marlboro in California for the quarter.

Yeah, it'll certainly vary by geography. I think you can think of it being in line with other black packings that are in the black family, that are in the marketplace, depending on the locale and the pricing in that locale.

Yeah, I appreciate your question, Vivian. I think what you're seeing, though, is the exacerbation of cumulative high inflation that's put the consumer under pressure. They had been subsidized by the government to a large extent since the pandemic, and I appreciate you raising that. And you saw when they had that subsidy that Marlboro actually benefited from it. The consumer is still the aspirational brand in the cigarette category. That's why we're making what we feel like are the appropriate adjustments headed into May for those pockets of areas where we see the consumer under pressure. And we'll continue to monitor and make adjustments as appropriate.

Morning, Pamela.

Yeah, Vivian, I think I would really point you to price elasticity. And when you think about price elasticity, that's the nature of a negative 0.35, is that for every percent that you increase price, you expect that 0.35 impact on volume. So it's much, much lower than other industry categories in the CPG space. You can see in the decomposition, we try to break down what's taking place in the cigarette category. You see secular declines pretty steady. The big factor is macroeconomic that swings around. I think if you go back in history, you'll see macroeconomic, the conditions that the consumer is under will swing it up or down. You can recall in 2015 I think you were asking us did we expect volume to stay flat for a period of time These are natural fluctuations that take place as the consumer experiences their economic conditions differently sometimes under pressure and sometimes they have a windfall So it's natural.

We'll continue to monitor, make the adjustments that we feel appropriate. I mentioned in earlier answers some of the adjustments we're making going into May. Down at the local level where we see different conditions for consumers versus just a homogeneity homogeneous, if you will, condition of the consumer across the entire U. S. That's some of the benefit of the tools in the advanced analytics team that we have is we can make those adjustments down at the granular level.

Yeah, I appreciate it, Pamela. Certainly, we're going to participate, but we're premium focused. I would remind you that strategy hasn't changed in the cigarette space for us. It's maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and into the growth areas. You know, you may have heard in my previous answer, it's not something that is new to the cigarette space. You know, I pointed to a couple of time periods where we saw similar things. You see as the economic conditions for the consumer change through time, it tends to revert back on a historical perspective. So, again, we want to be there for consumers. It's really about keeping the consumer engaged with Marlboro, whether they want to stay with Marlboro long term or whether we put them on the journey to the smoke-free products in our portfolio.

And so it's really about continuing to engage with the consumer through time.

Good morning.

Yes, we can.

Yeah, I think what we tried to show you was what we see thus far. I think it's too early to declare, oh, this is the total impact to the U. S. I think what we were trying to highlight is when legislation passes with a purpose of the law, they really need to give heavy consideration into how they're going to enforce that. And based on the comments we provided to the FDA with their proposed menthol ban and some of the consequences, the unintended consequences of that, we're seeing play out in California. As far as your question about what's been that impact, I think it's too early to tell, to see how that plays out.

Yeah, I appreciate your question. I think when you think about it, it's early on in the international space. It's really about learning in the space with the consumer, receiving their feedback. We're certainly excited to be able to bring OnPlus to the international market. We think it will resonate well with the consumer, but more to come on that.

Nothing that I would point out as a trend break. You always have consumers moving around, and that really goes back to what I was referring to as far as advanced analytics. Depending on the situation of the consumer in a locality, they're all going to face different pressures than other parts of the U. S. And so you'll see fluctuations at the local level around the U. S. , and sometimes they're in sync with each other, and sometimes they're counter to each other as far as what way the consumer is moving and what they're feeling. I think overall, though, the takeaway right now is with the adjustments that we're making to our promotional spends in some locales, we're seeing a more widespread of the consumer being under economic pressure.

And I highlighted some of the reasons we believe that it's occurring, and we want to keep the consumer engaged with Marlboro.

We know that the consumer aspires to be Marlboro. You know, you heard my comments earlier about in the pandemic when they had extra discretionary income, Marlboro share actually went up. So it shows that Marlboro is an aspirational brand in that category, and so it's to do both. If consumers had felt the need to trade out because they were under economic pressure, it gives them a space within the Marlboro franchise where they can reengage. or if a consumer comes under pressure, it gives them a space to continue to engage with Marlboro. So it's really about the engagement with the consumers that want to choose Marlboro as their brand.

Yeah, I appreciate the question. If I said 40, that was by error. It was 4% in cash. So I apologize for that. But to answer your question directly, I think what we're seeing take place is a number of the unintended consequences that we highlighted for the FDA in our comments on the myth-all ban that they had proposed. I think what you're seeing take place is the purpose of the law had a purpose. And what we're seeing is the lack of enforcement and some of the ways that product is in the marketplace is counter to what the purpose of the law was. And so enforcement and the thought process behind how it's going to be enforced is extremely important to really achieve the purpose of the law.

So some of the things we highlighted for you, Jennifer, were we're seeing some of the consumers self-mintolating, whether that be with mint ball cards and mint ball drops. We are seeing mint ball still in stores in California. And then we saw in some of the other spaces a number of flavor products just renamed. And so the enforcement is necessary if they want to achieve the purpose of the law.

Yeah, you saw what we tried to do is in our metrics page, what we tried to do is from an industry standpoint, If you think about Q1 of 2023 to Q1 of 2022, in California, they were down 18.8%. And for the rest, if you think about a total U. S. standpoint, down 8.9%. So you can see that.

So you can see that even on a sequential basis, again, California down 11.1%, total U. S. down 6.1%. So it certainly had an impact on shipments in California. We also highlighted some of the cross-border dynamics.

Yeah, again, I think it's too early to say, oh, try to get to a net impact of a California band netting alpha positives. What we tried to show is certainly we see what we think is indication of cross-border in Nevada, using that as an example of mid-ball share, its representation in Nevada is higher than it has been over the past four years.

Thanks again for everybody for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Thanks and have a great day.