Newmont (NEM) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Newmont call on October 22, 2026.

Held
October 22, 2026
Length
1 h 3 min
Tone
Confident0.72
Analysts
9
Words
8,571
Q4 gold production
1.4 million ouncesstrongest quarter of the year
Tanami commercial production
by the end of the second quarter of 2027earlier than previously anticipated
Red Chris development capital
$4.2 billion to $4.8 billion100% basis; includes anticipated grant
Red Chris annual gold production
275 to 325,000 ouncesfollowing ramp up
Red Chris annual copper production
65 to 85,000 tonsfollowing ramp up
Red Chris plant capacity
15 million tons per yearup from 9 million tons
Share repurchases remaining
approximately $2.8 billionunder current authorization
Potential quarterly dividend
$0.27 per sharesubject to board review next February

Summary

Management framed the quarter as evidence of portfolio resilience and disciplined cash generation, with production growth expected after the 2026 trough.

Guidance

  • 1.4MQ4 gold production 1.4 million ounces, the strongest quarter of the year
  • Tanami commercial production by the end of the second quarter of 2027
  • Red Chris commercial production targeted for 2033, subject to board approval
  • $4.2BRed Chris development capital $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion on a 100% basis, including anticipated Canadian government grant
  • $200M2027 closure spending approximately $200 million lower than 2026 levels
  • $400M2028 closure spending approximately $400 million lower than 2026 levels

What analysts pressed on

  • 01Red Chris scope changes: management cited improved geotechnical understanding, a reoriented larger cave, 15 million tons annual plant capacity, and current development costs.
  • 02Red Chris expansion timing: evaluations of Macro Block 3 and East Reach are underway, but management declined to provide more detail before they mature.
  • 03Yanacocha outlook: low-capital opportunities, higher gold-price assumptions, and optimized processing capacity could extend open-pit life.
  • 04Labor inflation and availability: cost escalation is expected to exceed the 2026 assumption of about 3%, but no major labor shortages were reported.
  • 05Tanami cost benefits: production should improve as the mine ramps up, but management declined to provide site-level cost guidance.
  • 06Red Chris partner funding: discussions are ongoing, but management did not quantify any potential change to Newmont's interest.

Notable disclosures

  • 40%40% of Red Chris planned investment in processing, material handling, and infrastructure is expected to support future expansions.
  • 9MRed Chris processing capacity increased from 9 million tons per year to 15 million tons per year versus the prior study.
  • 100%Red Chris initial-phase economics assume 100% of its capital and must stand alone, despite infrastructure reuse benefits for later caves.
  • Reserve and resource pricing typically uses a three-year trailing average; management anticipated a bit of an increase in reported figures.
  • $1.95BThe $1.95 billion Nevada Gold Mines payment is expected in Q4 and was not reflected in quarter-end net cash.

Risks raised

  • El Niño could constrain water availability at Lihir toward year-end; management said operations were not yet affected and described mitigation plans.
  • Labor cost escalation is expected to exceed the 2026 assumption of about 3%, while technical talent remains a recruitment focus.
  • Oil-related indirect costs cover chemicals, explosives, grinding media, fixed plant, and some contracted services, but exclude employee labor costs.
  • Red Chris capital assumptions remain under technical and financial review ahead of a final investment decision.

Tone: Confident 0.72

Management emphasized strong cash generation, improving costs, and advancing projects, while acknowledging inflation, water, and execution risks.

Who spoke

Company

  • Neil BackhouseInvestor Relations
  • Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer
  • Unidentified Management

Analysts

  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS
  • Fahad TariqAnalyst, Jefferies
  • Lawson WinderAnalyst, Bank of America
  • Tanya JakusconekAnalyst, Scotiabank
  • Hugo NicolaciAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
  • Daniel MorganAnalyst, Baron Joey
  • Adam BakerAnalyst, Macquarie
  • Martin PradierAnalyst, Veritas Investment Research
  • Anita SoniAnalyst, CIBC World Markets

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:05

Hello, and welcome to Newmont's 3rd quarter, 2026 results conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Newmont's group head of Treasury and Investor Relations, Neil Backhouse. Please go ahead.

00:32

Neil BackhouseInvestor Relations

Thank you, Rebecca. Hello, everyone. And thank you for joining Newmont's 3rd quarter, 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Natasha Foyon, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Brian Table, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as well as other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statements shown here and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Natasha.

01:04

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Neil, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered a stable 3rd quarter, demonstrating the quality, resilience and value generation capacity of our world-class portfolio, robust safety and operational performance, disciplined cost management, and highest solar production with realized prices enabled us to improve our full-year cost guidance, while remaining firmly on track to achieve our production, capital, and other guidance metrics.

I want to start with our operational performance. In the third quarter, Newmont's safely produced approximately 1.3 million ounces of gold, 23,000 tons of copper, and a notable 11 million ounces of silver. As we indicated last quarter, gold production was brought in line with the second quarter and reflected strong execution across the portfolio.

This operational performance translated into strong financial results, including $1.9 billion of free cash flow, and an adjusted net income of $2.20 per share, representing a third quarter record. This strong cash generation continues to support our balanced approach to capital allocation. Since our last earning score, we have returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders throughout quarterly dividend and ongoing share repurchases.

I'm also pleased to share that we have now repurchased more than 115 million shares, representing approximately 10% of shares outstanding, since launching the repurchase program in February 2024.

Beyond our safe operational and financial performance, we achieved several important milestones, the score term. First, we announced an amended joint venture agreement for Nevada gold mines, under which the previously excluded four mile fiber line and my properties will be contributed. We are very pleased with the outcome of this agreement, which aligns the interest of both partners and positions us to maximize the value of one of the world's premier gold districts.

We continue to work collaboratively with our partner and expect to close the transaction during the fourth quarter. At Leir, we safely completed the plans that team will shut down on schedule and according to plan. We continue to expect higher grade or in the fourth quarter as planned. And finally, at Redcris, we are finalizing the feasibility study for the Block Cave project and continue to advance toward a full funds decision early next year. And I will provide a more detail a little bit later.

As we move beyond the production trough, previously indicated for in 2026, we expect production growth to begin in 2027. Looking further ahead, I'll put follow up operating assets, projects in execution and future development opportunities, position new month to grow and sustain production for decades to come.

Supporting both our new term production growth and longer term outlook is the progress we continue to make advancing our projects across the portfolio.

In the third quarter, we continue to advance our development pipeline, achieving key milestones across multiple projects. Most notably at the second expansion at Tanami, we have now completed construction on the 1.5 kilometer shaft. We remain on track for full mechanical completion by the end of this year and our focus will shift towards commissioning as we move into 2027.

We now expect commercial production by the end of the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated, with ramp up activities continuing to the end of the year.

At Kaidia BC 23, we remain on track for completion by the end of this year with a final draw bell fired in September. This represents an important milestone as we begin transitioning activities from the project teams to operations.

At BC 1-2, Kaid establishment activities continue to advance on schedule. And we are pleased to report that the key regulatory approvals and associated requirements following the April seismic event have been achieved, allowing the project to continue advancing towards Kaid establishment.

The two water treatment plants at Yana Kocha are progressing well and are approaching mechanical completion with commissioning activities underway. As these projects advance towards completion in 2027, closure spending is expected to be approximately $200 million lower in 2027 and $400 million lower in 2028, compared with 2026 levels. As this cash flow becomes available, it will be reallocated to growth, partially offsetting an increase in development capital as we continue to invest in future projects and opportunities across our portfolio that generates the highest returns.

These project milestones reinforce our confidence in new months proven ability to execute large complex projects across jurisdictions, safely, responsibly and on schedule.

With this capability and confidence, we are advancing the Red Cross Block Cave project, a fully permitted shovel ready gold copper development in British Columbia's golden triangle and the next major reinvestment in our business, directly supporting our strategy to lead in gold and grow in copper.

With a full funds decision anticipated early next year, Red Cross is positioned to deliver long-term production in one of the industry's premier mining jurisdictions.

Red Cross is a multi-phase project anchored by an endowment that's supposed 70 years of mine life. It represents a rare combination of scale, quality and growth located within a highly prospective porphyry district. With all our regulatory and consent-based approvals already in place, it benefits from strong partnerships with the Delta and nation and support from both provincial and federal governments, demonstrated by the government of Canada's announcement of $500 million Canadian dollars of funding for the project, recognizing its importance to Canada's critical mineral strategy.

This established support creates a stable and predictable environment for investment and reinforces our confidence in the long-term opportunity at Red Cross and the broader golden triangle. The block of development will leverage NUEMOD's extensive experience developing and operating large-scale block cave mines, supported by an established team with over 150 years of combined block cave experience.

It's important to note that while the initial phase, MacroBlock 1.2, represents less than 20% of potential mine life at Red Cross, approximately 40% of the planned investment in processing facilities, material handling systems and other key infrastructure is expected to support future expansions. This foundation positions Red Cross to evolve into an increasingly meaningful contributor to NUEMOD's future production profile and a significant driver of shareholder value over time.

We continue to refine and validate the underlying assumptions and execution plan with a clear focus on ensuring the Red Cross block cave project meets our investment criteria and project execution standards.

While final review and governance work remain underway, I'm encouraged by the project economics and the value this operation can create for NUEMOD. We have completed a rigorous feasibility study and advanced engineering beyond 60%, resulting in an optimized mine design that improves metal recovery and incorporates due technical learnings, execution and long-term operational experience into our plan. By some results from the feasibility study and subject to board approval, construction for the project is anticipated to ramp up in 2027 with commercial production targeted for 2033.

This builds upon the early works that have already advanced the main decline, conveyor-to-service decline, and ventilation raise boring. The initial development is expected to support a mine life of approximately 13 years, producing approximately 3 million ounces of gold and 850,000 tons of copper on a 100% basis over this period. Following ramp up, we expect Red Cross to produce an estimated 275 to 325,000 ounces of gold annually, along with 65 to 85,000 tons of copper per year, highlighting the quality of the initial cave.

We currently estimate development capital to be between 4.2 and 4.8 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 5.6 and 6.4 billion Canadian dollars on a 100% basis, and includes the benefit from the anticipated grant from the Canadian government. This estimate reflects the latest development plan, updated productivity assumptions, current market inputs, and a mature understanding of the infrastructure, development sequence, capital requirements, and operating profile required to successfully deliver the project.

Supported by a robust technical plan and refined execution strategy, we believe Red Cross is well positioned to meet our investment criteria.

As we move towards a final investment decision, I want to spend a moment to reflect on the principles that will guide that decision, regardless of the source of growth, with advancing the next phase of an existing operation, evaluating an organic development project, or assessing any potential inorganic opportunity, every investment must compete for capital and satisfy three core criteria.

First, the opportunity must be a strategic fit for Newmont. We prioritise investments that reinforce our position as the world's leading gold company while supporting organic growth in copper. We look for opportunities that strengthen our presence in attractive mining jurisdictions and leverage our deep technical expertise, capabilities, extensive infrastructure and established partner relationships. Secondly, we invest the investment must ensure the quality of the portfolio.

We focus on opportunities that support durable production profiles, typically with mine lives of 10 years or more, improve free cash flow generation, increase resilience through the commodity cycles, and strengthen the portfolios overall cost competitiveness.

And finally, the economics must be compelling and supported by a high degree of technical maturity, project execution capability and a clear development plan. We expect projects to remain competitive across a range of planning assumptions and commodity price environments, while generating a double digit internal rate of return that exceeds the applicable country-specific discount rate.

The initial phase at Redpress is an example of this approach in action. It aligns with our strategy, enhances the quality and longevity of our portfolio, and delivers compelling returns, while meeting the same rigorous standards we apply to every investment before capital is allocated.

With that, I will turn it over to Brian for an update on our third quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year.

13:50

Unidentified Management

Thank you, Natasha, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered another quarter of robust financial results, supported by stable operational performance, discipline cost management, and continued execution across our portfolio. We realized an average gold price of $4,317 per ounce, generated $2.8 billion of cash flow from operations after working capital, and delivered $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated $7.3 billion of free cash flow, which is approximately the total amount generated in 2025, and with our strongest production quarter yet to come, reflecting our continued ability to convert strong operational execution into meaningful cash generation and shareholder value.

This strong cash flow continues to underpin our capital allocation framework, enabling us to return more than 80% of free cash flow to shareholders year to date, while making meaningful reinvestment back into the business and maintaining a strong balance sheet. For the quarter, we also generated $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and reported adjusted net income of $2.20 per share.

As we noted on our last call, the working capital benefit realized in the second quarter partially unwound during the third quarter, reflecting normal timing-related working capital movements across the business.

Turning to cost, gold all-in-sustaining costs were $1,454 per ounce on a by-product basis. Unit costs improved sequentially from the second quarter, primarily reflecting higher gold and co-product volumes, including 11 million ounces of silver production, stronger realized copper prices, and lower operating costs at certain operations across the portfolio.

Turning now to our capital allocation priorities, we continue to apply the capital allocation framework introduced earlier this year consistently, balancing reinvestment in our world-class portfolio, financial flexibility, and the return of excess cash to shareholders.

Beginning with sustaining capital, we spent $525 million in the third quarter as we continued to reinvest in the business to support safe production and sustainable free cash flow generation.

Turning to our sustainable cash dividend, our framework targets an annual cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion, paid quarterly, and in the third quarter, we declared a dividend of $. 26 per share. We also continue to invest in development capital, spending $354 million to advance the highest return opportunities within our deep organic growth pipeline. At the same time, we remain committed to maintaining a flexible and resilient balance sheet, anchored by our net cash target of $1 billion, plus or minus $2 billion.

This range provides the flexibility to manage through commodity price cycles, while continuing to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders. We ended the quarter with net cash balance of $3.2 billion, which is modestly above the upper end of our target range. It's important to note that this balance does not yet reflect the anticipated $1.95 billion payment associated with the amended Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture Agreement, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

And finally, once these priorities have been met, excess cash is allocated to ongoing share repurchases. Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased approximately $1.6 billion of shares under the $6 billion share repurchase program authorized by the board in April. This includes more than $450 million of shares repurchased in October to date, leaving approximately $2.8 billion remaining under the current authorization.

Our approach to repurchasing shares over time is already having a meaningful impact. And as Natasha mentioned earlier, since we began executing our repurchase programs in February of 2024, we have reduced our share account by more than 115 million shares, or approximately 10% of shares outstanding.

And as I mentioned last quarter, based on the repurchases completed to date, the formula under our framework would support a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share at the next annual review, while maintaining the same targeted annual cash commitment.

Any increase would remain subject to approval and declaration by the board as part of its annual review next February, but we continue to execute the program consistently, reflecting our conviction that new month shares continue to represent an attractive, long-term investment opportunity.

Turning to guidance, as we look to the remainder of 2026, we remain well on track to achieve our full year production guidance.

Production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter to 1.4 million ounces, making it our strongest quarter of the year, driven primarily by four of our managed operations. At Tanamai, as we begin to access higher grade stopes, at Sarah Negro, the start of mining at the Vane Zone Open Pit, as well as continued productivity improvements and recoveries.

At a Hoffo North, as the operation continues to ramp up to full production rates, and at Lehere, as we begin to access higher grade ore as planned, following the September maintenance shutdown.

I do want to call out that while we continue to expect Lehere to be a strong contributor in the fourth quarter, we are closely monitoring potential water impacts as a result of El Niño conditions, which are forecast to strengthen through November and December before beginning to ease in the first quarter of next year.

We are actively managing the operation with these conditions in mind and working to mitigate with water conservation efforts, though the timing and severity of weather impacts could influence production and costs during the quarter.

Turning to costs, continued operational execution, discipline cost management, and stronger realized prices for copper, silver, and other co-products have enabled us to improve our full-year cost outlook and now expect gold all-in-sustaining costs of approximately $1,520 per ounce, representing an improvement of approximately 10% relative to the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year. While we continue to expect fourth quarter all-in-sustaining costs to be the highest of the year at approximately $1,900 per ounce, our improved full-year outlook reflects the strength of our year-to-day performance and provides increased confidence in our ability to manage costs within our control.

The fourth quarter cost profile primarily reflects the plan timing of sustaining capital spend, lower co-product credits, as silver production at Penisquito declines to approximately half of third quarter levels and ongoing inflationary pressures, including fuel-related impacts.

With these evolving fuel-related considerations, we have enhanced our oil price sensitivity disclosure, which can be found in the appendix of our presentation.

In addition to the approximate $60 million impact from direct fuel consumption, we estimate a further additional approximate $50 million impact that key consumables and inputs for every $10 per barrel change in oil prices, providing a more comprehensive view of the potential cost impacts across our business.

Finally, sustaining and development capital are expected to be the highest in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track to achieve our full-year capital guidance expectations.

Looking beyond the current year, we expect total portfolio production in 2027 to increase by a low to mid-single-digit percentage compared with 2026.

Within our managed portfolio, the principal drivers include higher-grade at Lehere and Boddington, supported by planned mind sequencing, and the completion of the waste-tripping campaign at Boddington this year. Additional ounces from Tanamai, with a second expansion progressing well toward commercial production. Incremental ounces at Saranegro through the introduction of ore feed from the Zethane Zone open pit. And at Yanukovych, continued operational success is supporting the evaluation of additional low-cost ounces in 2027 and potentially beyond.

Together, these contributions provide a clear line of sight to production growth beginning in 2027. Shifting to costs, the fourth quarter profile provides an early indication of several external factors that we continue to monitor and are currently expecting to carry into next year. Ultimately, impacting our anticipated 2027 cost estimates. Based on current conditions, we anticipate unit costs to trend higher next year, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds and lower co-product credits. Primarily from reduced silver production at Penisquito, where output is expected to be roughly 30% lower than 2026 levels due to planned mind sequencing.

While these factors create a more challenging cost environment, we remain focused on rigorous cost discipline, productivity improvements, and performance excellence across the business, ensuring we continue to actively manage the costs that are within our control.

Looking at capital investment for next year, sustaining capital is expected to remain largely in line with 2026 levels as we continue investing in the long-term reliability and performance of our world-class portfolio of operations.

We now expect development capital in 2027 to be approximately $500 million higher than 2026, primarily with reflecting planned investment in the Redcris Block Cave project, subject to board approval, and continued advancement of the Leher near shore barrier project. Importantly, as Natasha mentioned, approximately 200 million of the increase in development capital spend in 2027 is expected to be offset by cashflow becoming available as spending on the Yannacocha water treatment plants declines. As the project reaches completion, this benefit is expected to increase to approximately $400 million annually beginning in 2028.

Taken together, these preliminary indications reflect a portfolio position for a return to production growth in 2027, supported by continued operating discipline and selective investment in our highest return opportunities.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Natasha for closing remarks.

24:24

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Brian. In closing, our third quarter results demonstrate the strength of Newmont's world-class portfolio and the consistency of execution across our business. We remind firmly on track to achieve our 2026 production capital and improved cost guidance, supported by strong operational performance, disciplined cost management and continued free cashflow generation.

The strength of our portfolio allows us to simultaneously reinvising the business maintain a resilient balance sheet and return significant capital to shareholders through our capital allocation framework, which continues to deliver value through a predictable dividend and ongoing share-re purchases.

Looking ahead, we are entering an exciting period for Newmont with a clear strategy leading in gold and growing in copper. Supported by our world-class portfolio, deep technical expertise, and proven project delivery capabilities, we are well positioned to deliver production growth beginning in 2027. Generate substantial free cashflow, create additional scale for decades to come, and continue increasing value for shareholders on a first-share basis.

And with that, we look forward to your questions.

Questions and answers

25:42

We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that you please limit inquiries to one primary question and one follow-up question. If you would like to ask a question, please press star, then one to raise your hand. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, press star, then one again. At this time, we will pause to assemble our roster. Your first question comes from Daniel Major with UBS. Daniel, please go ahead.

26:22

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Hi, I'm Sasha Bryan, and congratulations. I've got a set of numbers and no curveballs from the 27 guidance that I can see. But I guess the first one, just looking at the Redcrist Project and the preliminary details that you've given, can you provide us a little bit more detail on the scope changes that you talk to as sort of the first part? And then secondly, you talked to this as being the first phase that is the foundation for further expansions. Can you also just provide a little bit more colour about what that would entail and the potential timeframe around that?

27:06

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Daniel, and some really good questions. So I think it's firstly important to recognise that this project now is for the first time on a technical and commercial level fully on a right feasibility study level. So as we think about scope changes, it's important to also think about the technical executability and long-term sustainability of the project.

So the scope changes certainly included our increase and improved understanding of due technical realities. It allowed us to make sure that the positioning and the design of the cave plus the operational infrastructure and materials handling is appropriately positioned in areas that can be supported in the long-term. And that does allow for long-term productivity in high levels of productivity to support the low-cost expectations of this project. Secondly, we see increased throughput through the plant that allows us for higher yearly plant throughputs and then associated with the right timings capacity.

So those are the major changes. We have been also made sure that from a project execution point of view that we reflect current and demonstrated development performance as well as really current rights for that development.

Then if we look at the future of this endowment, Daniel, on slide five, you will see that we've clearly marked out the first macro block one and two. My apologies, I think it might be slide six. I thought I had the wrong number here for a minute. I want you to firstly look at both the east and west expansion of the ore body and you will see that macro block one and two is positioned in a very small portion of what we currently see as our endowment. Our endowment includes everything from our east reach to the far west and does not include any exploration potential further to the east and the west as this body or body so open to the east and the west.

So the 70 years that we're talking about is within the context of what you can see on the slide. The next expansion would be logical to go into MB3 and then east reach off to that. Those development project developments evaluations is underway as we speak. And as we bring them to a more mature phase, we will certainly be able to share more information.

I think I might just add and remind you that 40% of the capital that we're spending now will be capital that would be appropriate for further extensions into macro block three and east reach. Okay, thanks.

30:34

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Sorry, just clarifying that when you say 40% a couple, do you mean mind development capital rather than surface infrastructure?

30:41

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

No, it would be between surface infrastructure and underground materials handling infrastructure that would be reused for future expansions.

30:51

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, UBS

Okay. That's clear. Thank you. And second question and thanks for the color on the drivers of the sort of production into next year. Could you provide a bit more color on the expectations around Yannaculture?

Obviously, production's coming off, but it appears that they continue to contribute more than you previously guided. Can you give some just an update on how you see that both 20, 27 and beyond?

31:22

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Daniel, first, I think it's important to bring us back to the asset reviews that we have done that allowed us to stand back and unconstrained look at every asset. Yannaculture has benefited from that process in that, as we did an unconstrained view on the potential of the asset, definitely supported by a change in gold price assumptions and then aligning with our near-term to brown fields opportunities. Looking for low-capital near-term projects that can increase our production.

Also important, we always look at natural constraints in the value or in the system. So typically looking at tiling stamps and process capacity in this case, it would be heblige capacity. So really optimizing what we have in terms of heblige capacity, no material capital investment, opened up additional opportunities in the open pit that we will be exploring to extend the life of that asset.

Great. Thanks very much.

32:40

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jeffries. Please go ahead.

32:47

Fahad TariqAnalyst, Jefferies

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the indirect impact of the oil prices and thanks for providing that sensitivity. Can you just clarify whether that includes any impact on labor cost inflation? Thanks.

33:03

Unidentified Management

Yeah. Hi, Fahad. No, it does not. The primary impact associated with the indirect impacts that we've incorporated in that $50 million is associated with chemicals, explosives, grinding media, fixed plant, a bit of the contracted services in terms of how those dynamics flow through contracted services, but in terms of the primary employee base, that's not included as part of the labor assumption.

33:30

Fahad TariqAnalyst, Jefferies

Okay. And then just my follow-up question. What are you seeing in terms of labor cost inflation? And if you can maybe speak to, you know, we've heard about labor market tightness, particularly in Nevada and Western Australia, maybe just comment on what you're seeing there in terms of availability. Thanks.

33:46

Unidentified Management

Yeah. I mean, I think in terms of labor cost assumption, we are looking at a general escalation across the organization that will exceed our 2026 assumption, which was about 3%. So I think that that's probably a good place to start grounding in terms of just general costs, in terms of inflationary pressures. And, you know, I think a lot of us are all monitoring the general cost environment.

And I think a recognition in showing the indirect impacts of oil is a bit of a recognition that we are seeing a bit more of in terms of how that's impacting diesel and how that's flowing through the inflationary dynamic across the economy. I think also with regards to costs, there are other dynamics that we're monitoring as it relates to the Australian dollar.

And the continued royalty sensitivity is driven by gold price. But in terms of labor cost itself, I think that the indicator right now would be that more general inflationary environment. And we're continuing to monitor it.

34:58

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Natasha, I don't know if anything additionally might add in terms of availability of labor across the business. Thanks, Brian.

Generally, we know that the industry is always looking for technical capabilities. So technical capabilities certainly the first area that we always were very careful around talent management and attracting and retention of good technical capability.

If I look at across our business, our labor turnover is within good control and we don't by and large see any major labor shortages.

35:40

Fahad TariqAnalyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

35:45

Unidentified Management

Thanks, Brian.

35:47

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Garchiturna with Bartley's. Please go ahead.

35:54

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bartley's

Great. Thanks, everybody. My first question is on the 10 of my two to completion in the first half of next year now expected. I'm just wondering how that you expect that to impact the cash costs through the two twenty seven. And how should we think about that benefiting twenty seven twenty eight?

36:18

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Richard. And a really good question. We really pleased with the progress that the team is made at completing the the shaft and the the infrastructure. As we go into commercial production next year, we'll start to see opportunities to open up and develop the the areas at depth. It will have a material positive impact in our ability to move or out of underground.

As we ramp up twenty seven, we could expect to see Tanamai going back to previous performance into twenty twenty eight. I think it's important. We'll we'll definitely start to see an impact immediately, but we'll see the full impact as we ramp that I set back up to expected production.

37:10

Unidentified Management

And Richard, I might just just add to Natasha's comments as it relates to to cash costs. We're not we're not in a position at this point to provide cost site level cost guidance, but I would direct you to the general macroeconomic comments that I had both in the prepared remarks as well as the previous response.

37:28

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think that's important. We'd be net in a economic, but certainly from a productivity point of view, we'll see that come through.

Thanks for that.

37:38

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bartley's

Okay. Thank you. And then on on Red Chris, the CAPX guidance. Can you talk about how we should think about that flowing through over the next six years of development? I know you raised your CAPX development CAPX expectations for twenty seven by five hundred million. How much is is Red Chris a part of that? And then we'll be fairly linear as you develop the minor is you know, more lumpy.

Go for it. Thanks.

38:10

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Richard. I think firstly, 50% of the expected increase is associated with requests. We certainly have other projects like our new initial barrier that is also included in that capital increase, which is also really value a creative project for us until we give improve more color around the project, assuming FID early next year. I think it's time for you to see assume a linear spin profile.

But certainly we'll be able to give you more color. More color with FID in February.

38:48

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Bartley's

Great. Thank you.

38:55

Your next question comes from Tanya Jakaskanek with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

39:02

Tanya JakusconekAnalyst, Scotiabank

Oh, great. Good evening. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Natasha, just wanted to come back to Red Chris and trying to we can file some of the differences of the new crest feasibility at pre fees and your feasibility study. I'm just trying to understand you said that the processing facility is larger. Can you remind me what size you're thinking and how much larger that was when you press and also when you think about the ore body itself. Are you looking at more caves than they originally have anticipated to find a figure out discrepancy between the two capitals?

Yes.

39:41

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Tanya, I'll probably touch on a couple of things and thank you for that question because I think that is probably top of mind. Firstly, you've pointed out that the numbers that the numbers that's available was pre feasibility study and this is now a fully really well developed pre for feasibility study with at least 60% of engineering completed.

We have in some of our packages much higher levels of engineering completed. I think firstly, important learnings for us as I think between 2021-22 and where we are today. The first learning was certainly around the geotechnical realities around that ore body. We have been able to improve our understanding of the geotech that has resulted in changing quite material changes in support, underground support, also major cavities, the support for major cavities.

It allowed us to reorientate the cave. The cave is now larger and it's also oriented to prevent any intersection with major fault lines. We have been thoughtful on where we position underground infrastructure, both in terms of materials and material, broader materials handling to ensure that it is in more competent areas in the underground. Actually ensuring for long-term sustainability of the use of that infrastructure. If you just look at what to ensure stable infrastructure underground in a cave that's not impacted by geotechnical structures, that would certainly be the first element.

The second element is we will go from 9 million tons per year to 15 million tons per year in the processing plant. And that was not part of the original study.

I think the last element that I'll touch on as three mine elements is we have now got proven development rights as well as cost to ensure that as we think about our capital estimates that we have financial and cost and cost assumptions or robust as we've developed that the economics around the project.

So if I was to think of those three points that you mentioned, so all of the geotech, one of the larger processing facilities, and then thirdly on the inflation, I guess I should say inflation, the present day costing versus I think it's about six years older there about. I forget how long ago that was five, six years.

How would you take that? Would you say it's a third each year? How would you take these three categories and allocate the discrepancy?

I think what I, Tanya, I think the level of detail that we can give you at this stage, I'm going to limit it to that because we continue to, and as we've said in the prepaid remarks, we continue to ensure that we understand that we have reggae in our underlying assumptions. We are currently going through our technical review, our financial review, and when we get it through to a FID, we'll be able to give you more detail.

43:32

Tanya JakusconekAnalyst, Scotiabank

Okay. And any change in the ore body itself? Like when you looked at it from a caving standpoint, besides the geotechnical, did you extend additional caves beyond what they had?

43:45

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

No, I think the major change is the orientation of macroblock one, and then as we continue the work on the extended ore body, we'll continue to develop our thinking there.

44:02

Your next question comes from the line of Hugo Ikolachi with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

44:10

Hugo NicolaciAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Oh, hi, Natasha and team. Congrats on continuing to deliver in a not so easy operating environment. Firstly, on the here, I just want to dig into your comments on the potential for an El Nino impact to water availability at site. In the release, you talk about the potential risks in the fourth quarter this year, but can you just give me more detail around where you see the potential for water availability into next year? Just given that here is one of the key drivers of production growth and what you're doing to mitigate that risk there?

44:40

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and thank you. And hello, Hugo. Really good question. So firstly, important to note that we have not been impacted yet. It is something that we are closely monitoring due to just our normal water storage areas. I think it's important to note that the expectation is for El Nino to increase and get the harsher towards the end of the year. And probably we'll see less of that, but going into the new year.

A couple of priorities for us here. Firstly, on the Leer Island, the communities are reliant on us for water distribution. So that will be without a doubt our first priority. Secondly, not all of our operation will be impacted by water shortage if we get there. We will be able to continue to mine and stock bar material that will enable us to continue to build stock bar, do blending and be ready for a consistent blended feed into the plant.

The team is also looking at if that is the case that we can bring maintenance forward from next year to allow us then to run more more consistently. So my view on this is normally when you lose volume, when you lose mining, that's hard to catch up. But as long as mining is done and we get that onto stockpiles, you have a fairly good chance of making up that volume.

In addition, we've also seen Leer continuing to improve its throughput through the plant with the work that the team has been doing on reliability of the plant. We've seen increased reliability and consistency of throughput. So we will believe that we will have a level of catch up capacity through the plant.

46:38

Unidentified Management

I think you go, I probably just want to put a little bit more of a broader context also remind you that the benefit of having a portfolio of assets is that not all of the assets are on or constrained with the same headwinds. If you consider this here, we had Boddington bushfires, we had Tanamai bushfires, we had seismic events at Kaidia, we had a number of headwinds, but with the benefit of a global portfolio, we do have opportunity to offset certain headwinds.

47:19

Hugo NicolaciAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

That's helpful colour and then sort of dust tailing nicely into a second question. Then good to see Kaidia, PC12, cave establishment have resumed, but this has maybe added for the six months or so delay to timing to ramping that up later this decade. On your point around that portfolio flexibility, I would just talk to where that flexibility might be to continue to support the group getting back to that six million ounce target and where flexibility at Kaidia might be to catch up some of that timing.

47:48

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

So you go firstly, as we've worked through the rehabilitation work, the agreement with the regulator, we have been, and I think we've commented this on in previous sessions, that we are working to mitigate any potential impact on the project and we have actually been able to do that. So as I said in my prepared remarks, PC12 is on schedule.

We are back with the development and at least up to the point that we get to hydraulic radius. I think that's just from a PC12 point of view and PC23 on track as I've commented on. So those two projects are well in hand. If we look a little bit longer term on how we build back to our six million ounces, I think Brian and his prepared remarks did touch on Q4. I'll probably just touch on a little bit longer data.

Here we are starting to move into high grade areas as we've commented to do. We've completed the engineering wall at phase four at 24 and we also going into different phase 19 all with higher grade. As we've committed to as completed, it's stripping and additional pushbacks. Boddington is in high grade areas and TANMI will go into high grade areas as well.

On a previous question, I've commented on Yana Kocha and the additional opportunities that we see at Yana Kocha and lastly, we'll start to see CNE1, the Sierra Negra expansion project as well as vine zone, the open pit that we're starting to, that we start, we opened and we actually intersected some early low grade all reading. We'll see that coming through.

And then on our non-managed partners, both in NGM, PV and Fritadol Norte, there's an indication, indicated growth that we are assuming the four costs as well. So I think we are well set up to build back to the six million ounces and then projects like Redcris, if we'll then secure that longer term sustaining of a really robust production profile.

50:24

Hugo NicolaciAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

50:27

Your next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

50:36

Lawson WinderAnalyst, Bank of America

Thank you very much, operator. And hello, Natasha and team. And thank you for today's update. Great quarter. Could I ask about your 2026 year-end reserve and resource planning? And, you know, just as you think of all the different moving parts, so 2000 per ounce gold price assumption used last year, what are you thinking would be an appropriate gold price assumption for year-end 2026? How might the here and Sarah narrow life extensions play into this?

And then just overall commentary on whether Newmont anticipates replacing reserves at year-end 2026. And maybe actually one other question that kind of fit in along with this team is, do you anticipate any impact on Katie as reserves as a result? I mean, I gather from your prior responses, that's not the case. But I think just specifically with respect to reserves, not resources, do you anticipate any impact? Thank you.

51:34

Lawson, are they? We didn't clearly hear your third question. You had our assumptions around resources. The last one was around Kalia reserves. The second and the third question, you didn't come through clear. If you don't mind repeating those, please?

51:54

Lawson WinderAnalyst, Bank of America

Yeah, and I apologize for that. But just the basic gist of the question is does Newmont ultimately anticipate replacing reserves at year-end 26? And what are some of the moving parts around that, including gold price and the various operating changes at some of the assets?

Okay.

52:14

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

So Brian will take your reserve process question and I'll jump in straight off.

52:19

Unidentified Management

Yeah. Thanks, Lawson. I think as it relates to the pricing considerations for reserves and resources, I think we've shared in the past, we tend to be grounded in looking at the three-year trailing average. Obviously a lot of different dynamics that have gone on over the course of the last three years, so we do take that into consideration as well in terms of the volatility of gold price.

But I'd say that that's a good anchor to note. And so we will anticipate as a result a bit of an increase in terms of the reserve and resource numbers that we'll come out with. But we're very much from a process perspective in the midst of that important work on our reserve and resource. Grounded in price for sure, but there's obviously a lot of other dynamics associated with progressing the reserve and resource declaration that we're in a position to do that and announce that as part of our year-end close process. I do our business plan and cost outlook.

So that's a bit of flavor of what I would share with you with regards to kind of where we're at from a process perspective. But you can anticipate a bit of an increase in the core price.

53:25

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

I think your following question to that was how does that impact our thinking about sereneur grow, vein zone and yana culture. I think important and I think we've had a little bit of a conversation about this before, resource and reserves. We're also quite conservative where we think about mind design optimisation for productivity of mind design and any near or short term low capital opportunities like vein zone and yana culture.

We do take a different approach to thinking about gold price and we do consider near term gold price. Both of these instances is no real capital allocation. Quick answers, it's a quick turnaround that should be able to benefit from the higher gold price environment that we are seeing at the moment.

Your question around Kaidio, now it will not impact the incidents that we've had, will not impact our reserve assumptions around Kaidio.

54:29

Lawson WinderAnalyst, Bank of America

Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.

54:31

Thanks, Susan. Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Baron Joey. Please go ahead.

54:41

Daniel MorganAnalyst, Baron Joey

Hi, Natasha. Back to Red Chris. The returns and IRR of double digit given. Is that just for the first 13 years? I presume only macro block one two. I. E. is there any benefit from future caves, including that? I. E. macro block three. Would you leverage the same Crusher for macro block three? Just trying to marry up. There's obviously a lot of life in mind infrastructure which happens in phase one, but perhaps you haven't got the benefits and the returns. Just trying to understand that. Thank you.

55:10

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Daniel, I think that's a good assumption as we indicated for about 40% of the capital that we spend in infrastructure that will benefit future block house. This, the economics will assume 100% of the capital that's part of our standard. So this project needs to be standalone.

Have the right economics on a standalone basis. I think, I think that's important. So certainly we'll be able. And perhaps the way you can think about it is just to look at that we see at Kaidia. We have similar benefits of using shade infrastructure across future caves.

And the economics just continue to improve. Yeah.

56:00

Daniel MorganAnalyst, Baron Joey

Thank you. And just to ask about the funding. I see that you're looking to plan. Obviously you've got a very strong balance sheet. What are the rights you have under your JV partner agreement? And might you contemplate investment more than potentially your 70% interest and get a higher proportion of the project? Thank you.

56:20

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Daniel, we are in discussion with our partner and they have full visibility of the project capital. And we're working closely with them as they run it through the relevant processes.

56:40

Daniel MorganAnalyst, Baron Joey

Okay. Thank you.

56:41

Thanks, Daniel. Your next question comes from Adam Baker with McCory. Please go ahead.

56:53

Adam BakerAnalyst, Macquarie

I'm a teacher and Sam. Thanks for the opportunity. Just during the quarter, you've reached an agreement. Barracks have been four mile into the divided JV for US 1.95 billion. Just wondering how you can give us some color to how these discussions came about, including the timing one hour. And also how you landed on the 1.95 billion because it's been a great deal for you guys. Thank you.

57:17

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Adam, the final agreement had a number of different components. As you've pointed out, we had four mile mic and fiber line that was contributed to the joint venture agreement. We had the opportunity to relook the agreement also from a governance point of view and an opportunity for us as joint venture partners to work closer together to optimize that district.

I think I'm personally quite excited about that district because it's the first time that we can look at that district unencumbered to improve its performance. So I think it's important to know that a number of different components that came together in the outcome of the $1.95 billion. We pleased that we were able to conclude this with a modernized agreement.

And I think a really bright outlook for the asset.

58:23

Adam BakerAnalyst, Macquarie

All right. Thank you.

58:24

Thanks, Adam. Your next question comes from Martin Pradeer with Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.

58:33

Martin PradierAnalyst, Veritas Investment Research

On deprecation. The deprecation here today has been 1,800. You are gone to 1,815, which implies that roughly you have to get an end.

Is that realistic? Or should I think the previous course? And the second question would be on the remediation what you have in the nine months, 359, 158 million, and the guidance is 385. So you have very little left and provide some. On those two.

59:24

Unidentified Management

Yeah, Martin. Thanks for the question. As a release to the depreciation, the way I would think about that is we mentioned that we do have our highest production quarter in the fourth quarter. So naturally, there will be a bit more depreciation coming off as we round out the year. I think as it relates to the guidance that we had at the beginning of the year, there is an element of uncertainty associated with that depreciation estimate.

And certainly, there's an element that we do anticipate that will probably be at the closer towards the lower end of the range as it relates to that depreciation guidance.

On the remediation and reclamation, if I'm thinking of the what you're referring to as it relates to Yana coach or water treatment plants.

We are, as I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, quite pleased in terms of where the water treatments are with relative to their construction and their readiness. And so some of that's reflected in the year to date spend. And so there were well on pace as it relates to closing those projects out and getting them compliant in 2027.

1:00:48

Martin PradierAnalyst, Veritas Investment Research

Okay, sorry.

1:00:50

Unidentified Management

If it's related to the accretion, this would be tied to a core accretion. What you may be seeing is that there's an element of remediation liability that we booked in the third quarter as it relates to our midnight mine operation in the state of Washington. And that's a bit of a one-off. It's not related specifically to accretion.

1:01:12

Thanks, Martin. Your next question comes from Anita Sony with CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

1:01:23

Anita SoniAnalyst, CIBC World Markets

Thanks for taking my question. My apologies if this has been asked before. But I just wanted to understand the transaction with Barrett for NGM for four miles. Has that been tapered? I understand that it's 30 days from the day that you know the contract gets written up and that's when you'll have to deliver. Has that happened yet?

1:01:43

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

No, Anita, that was reflected in the opening remarks. We are on pace to close out the vending process. But the payment you're right is 30 days after the completion of the event and the vendor itself has not yet occurred, but we are anticipating it closing in the fourth quarter.

1:02:02

Anita SoniAnalyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. And then one other question. Just on a hop on north. I was just wondering about the ramp up.

Sorry. I was just wondering about the ramp up at a hop on north in the fourth quarter and going into next year. I think it was a little sluggish this quarter compared to my expectation. So just wondering how that evolves over the next four or five quarters.

1:02:23

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Anita. Thank you for that question. So we do see as we continue the ramp up our phone is moving into higher grade areas into the next quarter. So you will see that continuous increase to as we ramp up.

1:02:39

Anita SoniAnalyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. Thank you. That's a question.

1:02:41

Thanks, Anita. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Newmont's CEO for closing remarks.

1:02:53

Natascha ViljoenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you so much, Rebecca. And just to say thank you everyone for joining our call today. We always enjoy talking to you and we're excited about the opportunities and we're looking forward to updating you on our great progress next quarter.

1:03:10

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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