Oneok (OKE) Q3 2025 earnings call transcript

Thank you, Beau. We issued our earnings release and presentation after the markets closed yesterday, and those materials are available on our website. After our prepared remarks, management will be available to take your questions. Statements made during this call that might include Oneok's expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the Safe Harbor provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements.

For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filing. With that, I'll turn the call over to Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Thanks, Megan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. On today's call is Walt Pulse, the Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Sheridan Swartz, the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer. Also on the call are Kevin Burdick, Executive Vice President, Chief Enterprise Service Officer, and Randy Lentz, the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

Yesterday, we announced higher third quarter results and affirmed our 2025 net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. We also reaffirmed our expectations to recognize approximately $250 million of synergy-related adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 7% compared to the second quarter, once again highlighting the sequential progression of earnings we anticipated this year. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA has increased approximately 20%, driven by volume growth across our operations, steady demand for services, and the consistent execution of acquisition-related integration strategies by our employees. We believe that Oneok's long-term market value will be driven by our strong fundamentals, contiguously integrated assets, and consistent results from our diversification efforts.

Key among these catalysts are Oneok's significant operating leverage, contiguously integrated assets, synergy earnings with the majority being within our control, and our financial strength and flexibility. So let's start with the operating leverage. We've either recently completed or are nearing completion on projects that will add nearly 600,000 barrels per day of NGL pipeline capacity, more than 200,000 barrels a day of fractionation capacity, more than 550 million cubic feet per day of Permian Basin natural gas processing capacity, and an expandable refined products capacity Thank you.

Regarding acquisition-related synergies, we remain on track to realize approximately $250 million of incremental synergies in 2025. By the end of this year, we will have realized nearly $500 million of synergies since closing the Magellan acquisition in September of 2023, far exceeding our original expectation. We continue to see meaningful synergy opportunities ahead across all of our acquisitions, with the majority of these completely without our control and not dependent on commodity prices.

Finally, our financial flexibility strengthens our position and is the cornerstone of One Oaks business. A strong balance sheet and an intentional and disciplined approach to capital allocation and cash flow generation continue to support our ability to generate long-term value for shareholders. Our established and stable customer base includes some of the largest and most well-capitalized producers, definers, and downstream customers. Our combination of demand pull and supply push earnings and our longstanding customer relationships provide resilience through different cycles.

Oneok's strong fundamentals and integrated assets position us well to navigate near-term challenges and continue delivering results for investors and customers. I'll now turn over the call to Walt and Sheridan to provide the financial and commercial updates.

Thank you, Pierce. Third quarter 2025 net income totaled $940 million, or $1.49 per share, a 10% increase compared with the second quarter. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $2.12 billion, which included $7 million of one-time transaction costs. The acquired N-Link and Medallion assets delivered nearly $470 million in adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter, continuing their meaningful contribution to year-over-year earnings growth.

Additionally, we benefited from higher volumes in our natural gas liquids and natural gas gathering and processing segments. During the quarter, we repurchased more than 600,000 shares of common stock and retired more than $500 million in senior notes through a combination of scheduled maturities and repurchases. Year-to-date, we've extinguished over $1.3 billion in senior notes through maturity repayments and repurchases. This combination of share repurchases and debt management reflect our commitment to a balanced capital allocation approach that utilizes multiple available channels to create shareholder value.

Our long-term leverage target remains at 3.5 times, which we expect to approach in the fourth quarter of 2026 on a run rate basis. With yesterday's earnings announcement, we affirmed our 2025 net income guidance range of $3.17 billion to $3.65 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8 billion to $8.45 billion, which, as a reminder, excludes the impact of one-time transaction costs. Year-to-date, transaction costs included in adjusted EBITDA have totaled $59 million.

We continue to expect our total capital expenditures, including growth and maintenance capital, to be in the range of $2.8 to $3.2 billion in 2025. As we finish out the year, we remain focused on capturing additional synergies and operational efficiencies with approximately $250 million in synergy contributions expected for 2025. As discussed last quarter, we don't expect to pay meaningful cash taxes until 2029, which is a year later than we previously anticipated. Additionally, we expect our cash tax rate in 2029 to be below the full 15% corporate alternative minimum tax rate, which is also less than our historical expectations. Since the one big beautiful bill, we now expect to pay more than $1.5 billion less in cash taxes over the next five years, And the corresponding increase in expected free cash flow supports our continued flexibility for capital allocation in the years ahead.

I will now turn the call over to Sheridan for a commercial update.

Thank you, Walt. Starting with the natural gas liquid segment, total NGL raw feed throughput volumes increase compared to the second quarter, driven by higher volumes in the Permian Basin and Rocky Mountain region. Rocky Mountain region volumes average more than 490,000 barrels per day, another record for the region and a 5% increase compared with the second quarter, driven by higher propane plus volume and continued strength in methane recovery. Gulf Coast permanent NGL volumes averaged nearly 570,000 barrels per day during the third quarter, and 8% compared with the second quarter, driven by the continued ramp-up of newly contracted volumes.

In the mid-continent, less ethane recovery led to slightly lower volumes compared with the second quarter, but we continue to see consistent C3P plus volumes from the region. Regarding our fractionation operations, our Mont Bellevue fractionation complex, including our MP4 fractionator, is back to capacity following the incident in early October. After initial safety reviews, we resumed operations at the majority of the complex within 72 hours.

Repairs were made, and operations at MP4 resumed within 10 days following the incident. During the downtime, we were able to optimize our fractionation positions in Mont Bellevue and the Mid-Continent, as well as utilize storage. We anticipate working down any inventory bills related to this incident, in addition to the inventory being held over from the second quarter over the next several months. As we fractionate and sell the inventory, we will be able to recognize the associated earnings. We continue to see opportunities for ethical recovery across our system during the third quarter.

Weaker natural gas prices in the Rocky Mountain region have led to greater recovery opportunities, and we expect to continue to see high levels of recovery through the first half of the fourth quarter across our entire system. Related to synergy projects, we have now completed the primary Easton asset connections, including Galena Park, East Houston, and our Pasadena Joint Venture. Providing key connectivity between our Montbelleview NGL assets and key Houston area fine product terminals. Additional downstream connections will be completed through early 2026. Additionally, the build out of connectivity between our Conway NGL and MidCon fine product asset is on track for completion by year end of 2025. Both of these projects are expected to provide benefits through increased transportation fees in our natural gas liquid segment, which we have already begun to realize and also blending up lists and our refined product and crude segments It also important to note that these projects provide transportation and blending opportunities with third parties expanding the optionality of these ads further than One Oaks own blending business Moving on to the refined products and crude segment.

Third quarter refined product volumes increased sequentially, reflecting increased seasonal demand. When looking year over year, we continue to experience some regional supply disruptions along the system related to refinery maintenance, primarily impacting short-haul, lower tariff movements. On average, refined products' tariff rate benefited from the July adjustments, where we increased rates by a mid-single digits, as expected. As of mid-September, we've entered the fall blending season. Liquid blending volumes in the third quarter and year-to-date have been higher than expected due to successful synergy execution.

Physical blending volumes have increased approximately 15% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024. Despite tighter margins from lower gasoline prices, increased blending capacity positions for a strong upside and a rising price environment. Our crude oil gathering and long-haul pipelines continue to perform well. Third quarter crude oil volumes increased sequentially, demonstrating resiliency of our midland gathering business.

Moving on to the natural gas gathering and processing segment. Volumes increased across all regions compared with the second quarter of 2025, as producers continue to execute their 2025 plans. Looking first at the Permian Basin, volumes increased 5% compared with the second quarter. Averaging 1.55 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter. Currently, we have 20 active rigs on our dedicated acreage, driving the need for recently announced capacity expansions, totaling more than 550 million cubic feet per day across the Midland and Delaware basins. The Permian Basin continues to be a key area of strategic growth for us, and we will continue to be actively engaged and intentional in assessing opportunities to expand and enhance our integrated operations within the basin.

In the Mid-Continent, natural gas processing volumes increased 6% compared with the second quarter, highlighting producer resiliency in the basin and strong production results out of the Cherokee Formation in western Oklahoma. There are 11 rigged Rigs on our dedicated acreage in Oklahoma. Rocky Mountain region process volumes average 1.7 PCF per day in the third quarter of 2025. A 4% increase compared with the second quarter and a record for one oak in the region. Strong well completions during the second quarter drove third quarter volumes and will continue to benefit throughout the remainder of the year. There are currently 16 rigs on our dedicated acreage.

Looking forward, the current commodity price environment will likely drive more moderation and increased optimization of drilling and completion activities across the basins where we operate. However, even in a flat crude oil production environment, strong gas-to-oil ratios and continued production efficiency point to modest growth in our natural gas and the NGLs across our systems. I will close with our natural gas pipeline segment, which we reported another strong quarter and continues to exceed our original expectations for this point in the year. We continue to optimize the legacy in-link assets and be opportunistic regarding natural gas pricing dynamics across our strategic assets in the Permian and Gulf Coast areas. We remain well positioned to help meet the growing demand for natural gas, both domestically And for LNG exports, with extensive pipeline networks in key assets, key asset locations such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana.

We are directly connected to major LNG and industrial customers and continue to work on additional opportunities with them. Additionally, we are in active discussions related to numerous potential AI-driven data center projects. The key to these projects remains speed to market, and our intrastate assets are located in premier natural gas supply and demand centers, close to many of these proposed projects, and are well positioned to meet the timing needs of the market.

Here's that concludes my remarks.

Thank you, Sheridan and Walt. Before we move to Q&A, I want to close by emphasizing that we continue to see opportunities ahead. But importantly, we're executing on our strategy to combine our strategic acquisitions into an even stronger and more resilient business. Our integrated assets are performing well, expanding our reach in key basins and demand markets, and creating an even stronger commercial connectivity across our system. Our integrated assets continue to provide stable, fee-based earnings and position us to capture opportunities across market cycles.

We're able to execute our strategy because of the employees across our company. I want to recognize their commitment and contributions to our business and our vision for OneOak. Their focus on safety, operational excellence, and innovation is a key to our success. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our strategy, our strong fundamentals, and the catalyst that we expect will continue to deliver growth and long-term value for our investors. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

This is Sheridan. Where we see our tailwinds, which pushes us into next year, is obviously versus the synergies. We've put a lot of synergies in place this year, and we've got a partial yield into that, Easton being one of the big ones. We'll see a full year next year of that one, also with the Conway NGLs to Mid-Continent Refined Products, among others. We also have our growth projects coming online with the Denver expansion coming on midway through the year. As we mentioned in our remarks, we have 500 over 500 million a day of processing capacity coming on throughout 26 into early 27. So stuff coming on 26 is going to be a tailwind as we continue to go forward.

And then also we think there's just a growth in market share that we'll see in the permanent and some other areas will continue to fuel our growth going forward. So those are really, as we see going forward, what's going to drive our growth into 2020.

Sure. Well, as we've said in the past, as we get closer to a clear path to our debt-to-ebit dot target of three and a half times, it's going to free up our flexibility to add some stock buybacks to the equation. You know, we continue to be on track with where we think we need to get to from a debt-to-event-to-h standpoint.

And, you know, with that visibility, we're starting to be a little bit more flexible in our asset allocation. Saw the opportunity to buy back some stock there in the third quarter and did a modest amount. We also saw a pretty nice opportunity on the bond side and executed on that as well.

Michael, this is Pierce. What I would say is our focus is on finishing 2025 strong and carrying that momentum into 2026. Sharon, it just went over several of those projects and the different things that are going to impact 2026. We are continuing to have discussions with drilling plans with our producers. We are going to be finalizing our 2026 guidance in early part of first quarter of 2026. But I would end this way that we are very confident in our positive trajectory. So as far as guidance for 2026, I will just ask you to stay tuned.

Michael, this is Sheridan. Obviously, the Waha to 80 euthanasia channel spread has had a positive impact, Especially when you bring together our 1O West Texas assets, the West Texas system, and the in-link system and capacity we have on other pipelines, we've been able to leverage that to grow that. We've been able to do that not only on the in-link side, but also on our legacy 1O gathering system. So it has been a positive impact going forward. We will continue to see us use that capacity as we grow our gathering processing for our customers as we go on as well, but we have seen the ability to move gas on our capacity and also do a lot of parking loans on our system as well.

Well, Spiro, I think we look at every project on a standalone basis. You know we historically been able to use our strategy of building off our existing asset base that expand and extend approach which has given us the opportunity to do some very attractive capital projects You know that same strategy exists today with more assets So given the acquisitions we made we got more opportunities to expand and extend So, we look at each and every one of those as a standalone basis. That said, you know, I think that our expectation is that CapEx will trend down here over the next several years. As, you know, Pierce had mentioned in his remarks, we have a lot of operating leverage in our existing business, whether it be NGL capacity, fractionation capacity that's coming on.

So we don't need to continue to expand that. So we do see CapEx starting to trend down.

Yeah, this is Sheridan. I mean, I would say that we feel the Sunbelt Connector is a very competitive project as we look at the other opportunity out there. Obviously, right now we're still in the open season. We're still talking to a lot of customers. We've seen a significant amount of interest as we end there. And we think a lot of that's grouped by the competitive advantage this pipeline has is that we are already connected not only to all the mid-cut refiners in the upper Midwest, that we can pull that volume and source to this pipeline, but we also have extensive connectivity into the refining center on the Gulf Coast, where we can actually do some very efficient expansions.

We already have capacity between the Gulf Coast and El Paso, and we have some very efficient capacity expansions that we can leverage as we continue to go forward. So we think we're going to compete very, very nicely going in there. We'll just have to see how the customers come out and where we get them signed up and how much volume to see which one of these projects will continue to be built.

So, Teresa, I'll take a shot at this. It's Pierce, and I'll let Sheridan fill in here. But I think the way we look at all of our different basins are, you know, what is the drilling activity currently? And we know what the crude price is today and gas prices. And then we also, you know, look at, you know, how much, how many rigs would it take in each of the different basins to basically keep the volume flat? And so we feel very comfortable that right now the drilling is there to keep this volume flat. And if that happens, then we also have our GORs that are rising. In particular, up in the Bakken, the GOR is 3.1, and every tenth means something up there.

So by our calculations, you know, there's enough rigs out there running to hold the crude flat. And then at a flat crude volume, we believe our gas volumes are going to continue to grow up. Sheridan, anything to add?

You know, you talked about the Balkan, and then we get into the Permian. We have enough for visibility into volumes that are coming on our system today, and what people are completing here in the last quarter of 2025 that we will still see growth coming out of the Permian into 2026 and beyond. And as we said before, we are very excited about the Cherokee formation. It seems to have a lot of resiliency, even with a little downturn in price up in the mid-continent. So we're still very positive about our volumes on board.

And, Teresa, the only thing I'd add to that is Sheridan mentioned this, but I want to make sure that this gets across. He mentioned competing, you know, for other volumes. That's the one thing we all focus on. What's the drilling? What's the anchorage dedications? But just as importantly, there's gas that's flowing out there right now that may be going to somebody else, and as those contracts roll off, we feel confident we're going to be able to compete with those volumes as well.

And most of them are going into CDPs, so not a lot of capital to really connect to our operating limits. So it's just a point I want to make sure that it's made.

Teresa, what I would – this is Sharon again. What I would say is that first thing is, as we've always said all along, we have supplied to be able to fill this stock, and that supply for a long time has drawn a lot of people to us, and it continues to be that we have a lot of interest in our docs to go forward. And what I would say on the contracting side of that, we are very pleased where we are right now with our contracting strategy and where we sit today.

We still don't want to give a whole lot of details on that because, as you all know, it's a very competitive market, but we're pleased where we are.

What I would say right now, Gene, is we are seeing, hearing some people maybe move to a little bit of gassier portion of the mid-continent and move through on that, which we've always said our mid-continent has a little bit of a gas option to it. As gas becomes more favorable, you will see some more drilling going to the gas side, which is good for our GNP and NGL area. I still think we have quite a bit of room to go of growth in the mid-continent before we really run out of egress out of the mid-continent. And I think we'll be ahead of that as well. If we see that even getting close, we'll be able to put some things in place to be able to get more gas out of the region.

So that's one of the reasons we have some conviction in growth in the mid-continent on our volumes is we're also seeing that move to a more gassier play.

Well, I think really we'll start with the Permian. And the Permian, we kind of, because of some larger pads were delayed in the first part of the year, we kind of came out a little bit slower than we had expected. But as those pads come on, have come on, and are going now, we are now at a volume across our system where we expected to be at this time when we set our plan together. So we're pleased where we are right now with our volumes in the Permian Basin. Up in the Bakken, we have on the NCL side, we have seen some record volumes in there, and a lot of that, kind of that high end of that has been due to ethane recovery.

We talked about our discretionary ethane that we can bring on, and we've seen some pretty wide spreads with the low cost of gas or low price of gas up in the Bakken over the summer. We were able to take advantage of that and put ethane on our system and delivered into the Bellevue complex. So we've been very pleased how that's going, and that will continue into the fourth quarter.

This is Sheridan again. What we're seeing is we have been contacted by, I mean, well over 30 different projects on for data centers, and they were putting those projects in close to natural gas pipes to be able to feed the electric generation they need for those data centers. And so we've had our fair share of look at those, and we have some where they are very close to our pipelines that we feel we have the competitive advantage to be able to supply those. These are not going to be high capital type projects. They're going to be very nice low capital, nice return type projects, but we are seeing a good number of them that we think that we have the competitive advantage of either speed to market and how close we are to the data centers that we're going to win our fair share of.

Yeah, on the Iger Express Pipeline, we're really excited about that as we continue to see the demand from LNG and a lot of that demand is needed to be supplied out of the Permian Basin. We still see growth in that area. The Iger was a nice compliment to the Matterhorn, and because of the ownership we had in Matterhorn, we were able to see inside of that. And that project was FID'd when they had enough firm commitments from customers to be able to make an acceptable return. They've been continuing to be able to get more contracts on that. So we're very pleased where the Iger project is going, and it allows us to complete our integration, be able to put gas out of our gas plans onto a pipeline that we get some equity back in and be able to grow with it.

So we're very excited about the Iger project.

Well, and the only thing I'd add to that, Tom, is that, you know, you've got the capacity that's currently out of there. One of the reasons that you see some of these widening of the spreads is because of the tightness of that capacity. So there is extra capacity that's needed in the 10 BCF of LNG that's being basically built down in Louisiana and Texas, primarily in Texas.

It's going to need this gas. And so it's not like we're building the pipe for 10 BCF. It's just only a portion of that. So the demand side of this thing is very positive to fill it up.

Obviously, we would not comment on any conversations that are going on at this time, but we are open to a partnership, as we've said before.

I'll start with the last one first. I mean, in the in-link volumes, I think you're talking about the NGL volumes coming off of the legacy in-link plants that are not going to the 1-Oak NGL system. We will see those starting to come over. They're roughly around 50,000 barrels a day. We'll start seeing them come over from 26 through 28 at the time frame when those contracts come up, and once those contracts are finished, they'll come right over to our system as well. So, obviously, we like scale in the Permian because we're growing in the Permian. You know, we already talked about adding another $500 million a day of processing capacity in the Permian. So, we like that.

We like to grow it there. We like to grow organically first because that is the most economical way to grow. As we look at M&A, we look at everything out there, and we're going to be very intentional and disciplined if we're going to do anything more on the M&A side.

So when we look at our crude volumes that we think about, we are down just a little bit on that piece, but you really got to break that apart into its components. Really, the area that we are down on is mostly in our low volume. I mean, our high volume, low margin business that we're down on. The main business of gathering crude out there, we are within range there, and we are excited about continuing to grow there. So you've got to look at our crude volume and tear it apart between long haul, the HDS system in Bellevue. We have some short haul volume out in the Midland that all are down a little bit. But the core, what I call our core business, the core business of taking it off of leases or batteries and moving through our system is where we expect it to be.

And that's really the driver behind that business.

I think when you look at the blending business, you've got to be very, there's a spread component in there, so it fluctuates from year to year. What I would say is that through our synergies and everything else they had in my remarks, we've been able to increase the volume by 15%, which really sets you up for when prices go back to more normal, spreads go back to more normal, we'll really be able to take advantage of that opportunity, continue to go forward. And as we put more of these synergy projects in place, we're going to be able to increase that blending uplift that we had, being able to make sure we have volume there when we can blend and be able to get to places where before we're uneconomical to get to.

So it is, as I remind everybody, is that 90% of our business is volume times C, and that last spread in commodities is only 10%. So even our blending business that we like very much so and we're growing is still a small portion of our business.

Well, I think what we've said is that we are confident to be within the range. We've affirmed that range, and we've got to see how the fourth quarter continues to play out. But at this point, we're going to keep it in the range, and we're very confident in achieving there.

Yeah, it is up one. I mean, there's a lot of flexibility in those rigs moving on and off, but we are up rig on our business that we like. As we think about trending into 2026, you know, the producers are still in their budget process right now. As they continue to come out there, we hear more from them. We'll be able to reassess what 2026 looks like in terms of rig count and volumes and everything else like that. But we have good momentum into 2026 that we like, so we're optimistic.

Well, this is Sheridan. On the NGL side, we talk about selling purity products out of that. This is in our marketing business. There's different times that we may be holding product for storage and selling at a different time of the year, and so because of that, we may be moving earnings across quarters a little bit. So we saw an uplift by being able to sell some product in the second quarter, I mean in the third quarter. So it's really kind of a timing of sales on our marketing business.

And on the refined products on our over-insurance, if we look out over the year, we tend to be just slightly a little bit long on volume, but we take opportunistic times throughout the year to sell our over-insurance to the area, and this is the time that we sold it in the third quarter.

Well, I mean, I think clearly having a growth rate, a positive growth rate is going to be something that attracts people in the stock. I would just kind of point you to our history. We've gone through cycles before where commodity prices have been up and down. And year over year since 2014, we've had positive EBITDA growth every year. You know, we continue to see that trend. You know, clearly at the moment we need to get a little better fine point on where the producers are going to participate in the coming year before we provide a very specific number, which we'll do in the first, you know, beginning of the first quarter. But the business is incredibly resilient, and we are very confident that we will continue to grow into 2026.

You know, we clearly are going to be focused on our capital allocation, taking the opportunity to bring on, you know, real high-quality projects. But if you look at our cash flow profile, we should have the opportunity in the coming years to be in there buying some stock as well. So, you know, that could have a positive impact. But at the end of the day, we will continue to achieve that earnings growth going forward.

The only thing I'd add to that is I'd encourage you to go back and look at the data for like crude oil prices between 2008, 2009, 2015 to 2016, 2020. And it really paints the story of what Walt just said about how we've been able to grow our EBITDA through these different down cycles. And one thing I would say, because most of us have been in this business over 40 years, with every down cycle, there's usually an up cycle.

You don't get in another down cycle until you have an up cycle. So it'll come back, and we're confident to manage through the down cycle.

Thanks, Bo. Our quiet period for the fourth quarter starts when we close our books early next year and extends until we release earnings in late February. We'll provide details for that conference call at a later date. As a reminder, our IR team will be available throughout the day for any follow-ups. Thanks, everyone, and have a good day.