Pembina Pipeline (PBA) Q3 2025 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Pembina Pipeline Corp. call on November 7, 2025.

Held
November 7, 2025
Length
48 min
Tone
Positive0.62
Analysts
10
Words
7,734
2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance
$4.25 billion to $4.35 billionnarrowed range
Cedar Petronas capacity
1 million tons per annum20-year agreement
Cedar remaining capacity
0.5 million tonsdefinitive agreements expected by year-end
Greenlight first phase
approximately 900 megawattsplanned for 2030
Greenlight grid allocation
907 megawattassigned to potential customer
Peace pipeline renewals
approximately 50,000 barrels per dayweighted average term approximately 10 years
Alliance firm capacity elections
approximately 96% of the 1.325 BCF per dayaverage 10-year term
Long-term leverage comfort range
3.5 to 4 timesmanagement’s stated range

Summary

Management framed the call around resilient contracted cash flows and a growing project pipeline, while narrowing near-term confidence mainly on marketing optionality.

  • Cedar’s Petronas agreement passes through almost all project obligations while retaining participation in favorable market spreads.
  • October core-business volumes were at or above plan, offsetting less marketing upside than expected.
  • Management said conventional volumes should continue growing in the single digits over the longer term, despite producer-specific timing variability.

Guidance

  • $4.25B2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion

What analysts pressed on

  • 012026 producer activity: management is listening to customers and will refine volumes and outlook in December.
  • 02Greenlight timing: management clarified the customer’s innovation center could start as early as 2027, while its 900-megawatt first phase remains planned for 2030.
  • 03Conventional renewals and pricing: management said recent 50,000 barrels per day renewals maintained current contracted tolls, while some receipt-point discounts remain possible.
  • 04PGI ownership: management declined to discuss M&A specifically, but said it likes the existing partnership and believes it is working as intended.
  • 05Balance sheet: management expects leverage in the mid-threes exiting 2025, rising with 2026 Cedar investment before moderating toward its 3.5-to-4-times comfort range.
  • 06Cedar capacity amendment: management said the increase creates potential incremental throughput and cargos, but those volumes are not contracted.

Notable disclosures

  • The Petronas contract is structured as synthetic tolling, passing almost all Cedar obligations through while allowing some market-upside participation.
  • 0.5MThe remaining 0.5 million tons of Cedar capacity is expected to be definitively contracted by year-end; management withheld details on terms.
  • Greenlight’s phasing shifted from four 450-megawatt stages to two roughly 900-megawatt stages.
  • 96%Alliance shippers elected an average 10-year term on approximately 96% of available firm capacity.

Risks raised

  • Lower propane prices and stronger NGL prices are weakening expected fractionation spreads relative to last year.
  • Lower-than-expected marketing optionality in the second half, particularly Q4, prompted the guidance range tightening.
  • Management cited a revised Alliance CER settlement as a headwind to its prior EBITDA outlook.
  • 2026 is expected to be Cedar LNG’s peak investment year, with free cash flow potentially negative before leverage moderates.

Tone: Positive 0.62

Management emphasized execution, contracted growth, and resilient core volumes, while acknowledging softer marketing optionality and a heavier 2026 investment year.

Who spoke

Company

  • Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer
  • JaredUnidentified Management
  • Unidentified ManagementUnidentified Management
  • Chris ShermanUnidentified Management
  • TaylorUnidentified Management

Analysts

  • Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays
  • MorganAnalyst, Unidentified
  • Jeremy Bryan TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan
  • Saumya JainAnalyst, UBS
  • Erin McNeilAnalyst, TD Cowen
  • Spiro DunezAnalyst, Citigroup
  • AJ O'DonnellAnalyst, TPH
  • Maurice ChoyAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets
  • Robert CatalierAnalyst, CIBC Capital Markets
  • Ben PhamAnalyst, BMO

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pembina pipeline corporation Q3 2025 results conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, November 7, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan to canal VP of capital markets. Please go ahead.

00:31

Unidentified ManagementInvestor Relations

Thank you, Danny. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina conference call and webcast to review highlights from the third quarter of 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burroughs, president and CEO and Cameron Goldade, Senior Vice President and she financial officer, along with other members of Pembina's leadership team. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections.

Forward looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non gap measures. To learn more about these forward looking statements and non gap measures, please see the company's management's discussion and analysis dated November 6, 2025 for the period ended September 30 2025 as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday.

All materials are available online at Pembina. com and on both cedar plus and Edgar. I will now turn things over to Scott.

01:37

Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer

Thanks, Dan. Yesterday we reported our third quarter results, which were highlighted by quarterly adjusted EBITDA of 1.034 billion dollars. We remain on track to deliver full year results within our original 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range and as camel discuss in more detail. And as we are three quarters of the way through 2025, we have updated and narrowed our guidance range to 4.25 billion to 4.35 billion dollars.

As we highlighted in the release yesterday, Pembina continues to execute a strategy through which we strive to do two things. One, ensure the long term resilience of our business and two, provide investors with visibility to attractive growth through the end of the decade and beyond. The execution of Pembina's strategy is highlighted by a number of recent developments.

First, earlier this week, we were pleased to sign a 20 year agreement with Petronos for 1 million tons per annum of Pembina's liquefaction capacity at the cedar LNG facility. Petronos is a global LNG industry leader and one of the largest gas producers in Canada. We are very excited to expand our relationship with them and see this as an important development in Pembina's ongoing expansion of its export business.

Pembina previously signed a 20 year take or pay liquefaction polling service agreement for 1.5 million tons per annum of LNG to support the final investment decision on cedar. In June of 2024 and ultimately maintain key project timing and economic parameters within the expectation of remarketing the capacity at a later stage. By remarketing our cedar capacity, we are fulfilling Pembina's commitment to its financial guardrails and ensuring that the company's expansion into the LNG business is done within the risk profile of its existence.

Characterized by its predominantly long term, highly contracted fee based cash flow stream. We expect to reach definitive agreements for the remaining 0.5 million tons of our capacity by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the project itself remains on time and on budget construction of the floating LNG vessel, including the hall and top side facilities remain on schedule. And cedar LNG has significantly advanced the onshore construction work. I find construction is ahead of schedule, including a completion of all horizontal directional drill crossings. This is a major achievement and de-risk that portion of the project.

Second, during the quarter, Pembina and its partner, Connecticut, had an exciting announcement on the advancement of the Greenlight Electricity Center, a proposed up to 1.8 gigawatt natural gas fired power generation project designed to advance Alberta's innovation economy. Recent achievements include securing a 907 megawatt power grid allocation, which was subsequently assigned to a potential customer of Greenlight to enable development of the customer's innovation infrastructure development as early as 2027 prior to the startup of Greenlight in 2030.

In addition, a recently signed agreement with a reputable equipment manufacturer provides certainty of availability and delivery timing of two turbines to support the approximately 900 megawatt first phase of Greenlight. Pembina and Connecticut continue to progress towards a final investment decision in the first half of 2026. We see Greenlight as an on strategy extension of Pembina's existing value chain and an opportunity to enhance growth by investing in long term contracted infrastructure with investment grade counter parties while diversifying our customer base.

Greenlight would create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids production within Western Canada. And we believe Pembina's well positioned to leverage the assets and capabilities of our current core business to further support the project. Insert customer demand for gas egress and liquids handling and transportation. Most notably, the proximity of Pembina's lines pipeline offers a potential of creative expansion opportunity to supply natural gas to Greenlight.

Third, we continue to realize contracting successes that are strengthening the core business. In our conventional pipeline business, we now have re contracted substantially all volumes available for renewal under contracts with expiry dates in 2025 and 2026. In addition to the previous updates we have provided around various re contracting successes. We recently signed new transportation agreements on the peace pipeline system for the renewal and addition of volumes totaling approximately 50,000 barrels per day with a weighted average term of approximately 10 years.

Approximately 80% of the volumes are currently being serviced today and 20% are new volumes take effect in 2026. Within our transmission business unit, recent shipper elections on Alliance pipeline had significantly strengthened its long term contractual profile with shippers taking an average of a 10 year tool auction on approximately 96% of the 1.325 BCF per day of firm capacity available.

Fourth, we continue to deliver on our capital projects on time and on or under budget. In total, Pembina and Pembina gas infrastructure are nearing completion on approximately $850 million of projects that are expected to enter service throughout the first half of 2026. RFS4, the new fractionator within our red water complex has progressed to approximately 75% complete. It continues to trend under budget and we have narrowed the expected in service date to the second quarter of 2026.

PGI's Wapiti expansion, which will increase natural gas processing capacity of the Wapiti plant is trending on budget and we have narrowed its in service date to the first quarter of 2026. PGI's K3 co-generation facility is now trending under budget and we have narrowed its in service date to the first quarter of 2026.

Finally, we are progressing numerous accretive investment opportunities to meet growing demand for pipeline and transportation services. Pembina is well advanced on the development of approximately $1 billion of conventional pipeline projects to enable WCSB growth and position Pembina to win new liquid transportation opportunities. These investments would be supported by a combination of long-term taker pay agreements, a cost of service structure, and the land and facility dedications.

Engineering activities are ongoing and subject to regulatory and board approval. Pembina expects to move forward with a Fox Creek to the Mayo expansion of the peace pipeline system, a Taylor to Gordon Dale project, and a birch to Taylor North ECC system expansion. As well, we continue to observe continued growth from the Clearwater area and strong customer demand for incremental services on the Nipiti pipeline.

Following successfully re-contracting Nipiti over the last few years, Pembina expects it to be highly utilized in 2026 and is currently evaluating opportunities to increase egress capacity. Alliance pipeline previously solicited non-binding expressions of interest for a new short haul point to point transportation service on the Canadian segment of its system in northwest Alberta. The proposed expansion would provide natural gas delivery to a new meter station in Fort Saskatchewan for up to 350 million standard cubic feet per day of incremental capacity with an anticipated in service date in the fourth quarter of 2029. Based on the results, Alliance pipeline is planning to launch a binding open season in the first quarter of 2026 for all interested parties.

Pembina continues to differentiate itself as the only Canadian energy infrastructure company with an integrated value chain that provides a full suite of midstream and transportation services across all commodities. Natural gas, NGL, condensate, and crude oil are scoped scale and access to premium North American and global markets uniquely positions us to capture incremental new volumes while unlocking new avenues for growth. I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights of the third quarter.

08:52

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

Thanks, Scott. Scott noted, Pembina reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.034 billion. This represents a 1% increase over the same period in a prior year.

In pipelines, major factors impacting the quarter included higher demand on seasonal contracts on Alliance pipeline, higher revenue on the piece pipeline system due to increased tolls, mainly related to contractual inflation adjustments, higher interruptable volumes on the piece pipeline system, higher contractive volumes on the NIPSE pipeline, and lower firm tolls on the COTION pipeline due to re-contracting in July 2024, and lower interruptable volumes due to narrower condensate price differentials offset by higher contracted volumes.

In facilities, factors impacting the quarter included higher contribution from PGI primarily related to transactions with white cap resources, higher capital recoveries, and higher volumes at the DuVernay complex.

In marketing and new ventures, third quarter results reflect the net impact of lower net revenue due to a decrease in NGL margins as a result of lower NGL prices, coupled with higher input natural gas prices at Oxable, higher NGL marketed volumes, including no similar impact of the nine-day outage at Oxable in 2024, and lower realized gains on crude oil based derivatives partially offset by lower realized losses on NGL based derivatives.

Finally, in a corporate segment, third quarter results were higher than the prior period due to lower incentive costs driven by the change in Pembina share price in the period compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Earnings in the third quarter were $286 million. This represents a 26% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in the third quarter was primarily due to the net impact of the recognition of a gain on sale of the north segment of the western pipeline, higher depreciation and amortization due to a decrease in the estimated useful life of an intangible asset, a share of loss in PGI due to an impairment on certain PGI assets at higher depreciation expense, partially offset by the recognition of a gain in net finance costs, and lower losses on the interest rate derivative financial instruments and commodity related derivatives.

And finally, lower share of loss from CDR LNG primarily due to the impact of hedging activities on the credit facility.

Total volumes in the pipelines and facilities divisions were 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter. This represents an increase of 2% over the same period in the prior year, primarily driven by higher contracted volumes on the NPSE pipeline and the piece pipeline system, higher volumes at red water and Oxable due to no similar outages which occurred in the third quarter last year.

Now, turning back to the full year, as Scott mentioned, we tightened our 2025 adjusted guidance range to $4.25 to $4.35 billion, which reflects year to date results as well as the current commodity price outlook for the remainder of the year. I'll now turn things back to Scott.

12:07

Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer

Thanks, Cam. As we have summarized today, we have delivered solid, quarterly and year to date results both operationally and financially. Remain on track to deliver full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA within our original guidance range and look forward to providing our outlook for 2026. With the release of our guidance and capital budget update in mid December. As we work successfully to close out 2025 and plan for 2026, we cannot be more excited of what is ahead for feminine and stakeholders.

Developments within the WCSB are providing tremendous opportunities to strengthen and grow our business. Thank you for joining us this morning. Please open up the line for questions.

Questions and answers

12:46

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star key followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star key followed by the number two. If you're using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, while we assemble the queue. Your first question comes from Teresa Chen of Barclays. Please go ahead.

13:17

Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays

Morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Given your updated guidance range and the mention of the current commodity outlook, can you share what you're seeing or hearing from your producer customers as far as the read through to your pricing outlook, as well as your volumetric expectations, not just for the remainder of this year, but also 2026.

13:38

JaredUnidentified Management

Morning, Teresa, Jared here. Yeah, right now, you know, obviously commodity prices are a little lower, you know, covering around that 60 dollar WTI. So what we're really doing right now is just meeting with all of our customers. Really listening to what they, their short term, you know, the latter half of year, the end of 25 and what they need for transportation services going into 26. So we'll have a much more refined outlook with respect to 2026 when we do our our guidance and capital press release in December.

But right now we're just really in listening mode and going to really try to meet our customers needs.

14:16

Unidentified Management

And then maybe just adding on to that from a, from a direct PEM and exposure. Obviously, you know, as we look forward, we're seeing propane prices lower than we saw last year. There is some weakness in propane. If you look at where inventory levels are coupled with a strength and ankle price, which is obviously the opposite of that is good for our customers, but a high price does put pressure on our frack spread. So we are seeing, you know, a little weakness compared to say last year in our in our outlook for frack spreads for for Q for just giving those dynamics.

14:50

Theresa ChenAnalyst, Barclays

Thank you. And in relation to green light and your partnership with Connecticut, what are the next steps from here? And if Alliance were to be a source of supply for gas, we're kind of uplift what you expect.

15:04

Chris ShermanUnidentified Management

Hey, Theresa, Chris Sherman, thanks for the question. You know, as we shared in October, we're continuing towards the first half 2026 FID schedule. We're really continuing our commercial discussions with our customer, continuing our feed work to get our engineering in line in hopes of that first half next year. FID as far as uplift associated with the pipe. I mean, they really are two separate projects, but we think each can stand alone on its own on its own two feet and really support solid economics.

15:50

Thank you. Morgan, please go ahead.

15:57

MorganAnalyst, Unidentified

Morning. Hi, thanks for all the color today. Want to go to Project Greenlight a little bit more. I believe last quarter that was talk about potential for 2029.

Entering service in just want to see, I guess, latest thoughts on how you see this unfolding, you know, with all the, you know, unfolding up the interconnection to seems like there might be some concern in the market.

Okay, so just wondering if you could buy a little bit more color there.

16:27

Chris ShermanUnidentified Management

Sure. Again, it's it's Chris. So, you know, I think there has been a maybe a little bit of confusion that's the center of the market. Right. And I think it's worth taking a second to maybe separate the two projects and clarify what's happening there. Arrangements. I know there've been some disclosure that the reference 2030 our understanding is that's really at outside date and they're still pushing towards as early as 2027 for that that first phase. The innovation center and the associated grid connections are really our customers projects and since we assigned or sold our land and secured those mega allocated those those mega lots to our customer that's really between them.

And the so, but as far as our project, the related project, we're progressing our 1800 megawatt, you know, gas fire power generation facility, the first phase of 900 megawatts is as you referenced plan for 2030 and all that remains on track.

17:40

MorganAnalyst, Unidentified

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you for that. And just want to touch on the guidance tightening a little bit seems like the midpoint moved down just a little bit there. I was wondering if you could dive in a little bit more on the drivers there and just, you know, what trends you see it coming out of 25 and 26 and how we should think about that.

18:01

Jeremy Bryan TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan

Hey, Jeremy, it's Cam here.

18:01

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

No problem. The first thing I'll mention and obviously to step back for a second, I think one of the things we we anchor on is a very stable and resilient business. And I would say, you know, notwithstanding a ton of variability in the market over the course of 2025, you know, we remain squarely in the heart of our original guidance range from a year ago and continue to be anchored on that in a material sense for for the year. When we when we looked at our outlook back in August for the balance of the year, you know, I would say that, you know, based on where we were at that point, we we like the expected, you know, some option value to come in the second half of the year and particularly the fourth quarter.

Through through the marketing business, you know, we probably expected a little bit more than we've now expected we've seen. So, you know, on the margin. We've we've tightened that guidance right a little bit, obviously, to just to give the market a bit of direction in terms of what we're seeing, you know, at the same time, what I would say is that, you know, well, it's early.

The results in the core business outside of marketing are continuing to trend strong. I would say that, you know, from what we're seeing in terms of early results from our October volumes, you know, they continue to be, you know, at or exceeding plan. So we're seeing a lot of constructive science outside of the marketing business. At the end of the day, you know, we saw a little bit off a little less optionality in that commodity business. So we, we tightened it up a bit, but materially, you know, we don't see a lot changing in our business.

19:38

Jeremy Bryan TonetAnalyst, JPMorgan

Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

19:43

Your next question comes from Samya Jane of UBS. Please go ahead.

19:48

Saumya JainAnalyst, UBS

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you provide more color on the brownfield opportunities you were looking at in the sour gas base? How is sour gas infrastructure currently position in the basin and how would. I mean, I benefit from it.

20:06

JaredUnidentified Management

Good morning, so on you, Jared. Great question. So, yeah, as, you know, as the demand for condensate as oil science production grows as. Oil egress pipelines get the bottlenecked out of Western Canada. More and more condensate can be required and a lot of that condensate is coming from the Montney, which does have associated sour gas with it.

PGI through our Heights facility, our K three facility. Capital River. I'm probably leaving a couple off the list, but we have an extensive network of sour gas processing, sulfur recovery and also acid gas injection.

Pam and I have successfully were the only entity who's actually built a sulfur recovery unit here in the last. You know, about 25 years and we did that on time and on budgets. So I think our project execution our understanding of operations in that space. And the platform and the footprint that PGI offers. I think we're in a really good spot.

To enhance the customer's needs and continue to allow them to grow that sour gas production in face of condensate demand.

21:12

Saumya JainAnalyst, UBS

Okay, great. Thank you. And then on the regulatory side, what progress are you seeing at the federal or provincial level? And are there any policies or changes that will especially impact to mean in the near term?

21:26

Unidentified Management

Yeah, I think overall we're definitely seeing a constructive tone from the federal government. You know, we like what we're seeing. We're seeing it, you know, I think on the ground in terms of our interactions as well. You know, I think it's a little too early to comment on what, you know, new projects may or may not come out of that, but certainly a constructive and supportive tone from the federal government.

21:50

Saumya JainAnalyst, UBS

Okay, great. Thank you for the color.

21:54

Your next question comes from Erin McNeil of TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

22:00

Erin McNeilAnalyst, TD Cowen

Good morning. All thanks for taking my questions. It's great to see Pam and I continue to announce contract renewals on conventional pipe. The question we always get is on pricing. I can appreciate that you're not going to get into specifics here, but given the emergence of the competitive alternative, how should we think about renewal pricing and your ability to maintain current margins on a per barrel basis.

22:27

JaredUnidentified Management

Morning. Yeah, thanks for the question. So you're most recent announcement of the 50,000 barrels of re contracting is a tremendous outcome for Pemima. And why I want to say that is 100% of those volumes are with the in the competitive alternative transport area. 20% of those volumes flow to the alternative today. And upon reconnection, they will be once that project is complete, they'll be flowing on the P system.

And essentially all of the volumes I can tell you maintained current contracted toll. There's obviously a lot of things that go into a transportation agreement. A lot of different things are important to our customers tolls, obviously one of them, but there are other factors that go into that negotiation and in this particular instance, we were able to maintain that.

Obviously, in some areas at certain receipt points, we will discount our tolls if it's if it's prudent to do so, but those are very calculated decisions that we make. I would point out that I know we don't externally show this information, but since the.

Since the inception of the alternative pipeline. The even upper barrel of our conventional business actually has been increasing. And the factors that go into that, there's a few of them that I want to outline for you. The first one is we've been extremely focused on lowering our cost structure. You know, providing safe, reliable, cost efficient operations to our supply chain strategies and through our continuous improvement in our operational excellence journey that we've been on here internally at Pemima. Additionally, as we move West further away from Edmonton market, obviously that garners a higher toll just due to the proximity in the distance into the into the market.

And then thirdly, the majority of all of our contracts on the pipe side have CPI inflators built into them. So then finally, what I would leave you with on how we maintain margin is our industry leading project execution. And our ability, and I said it earlier, safe, reliable, cost efficient operations continue to be a competitive advantage. We basically can allow our commercial teams to go out there, maintain the internal expectations of Pemima.

Teams are bringing our projects on time and under budget, and that really allows them to have some flexibility with the customers to meet their needs, but also maintain our margin. And our internal financial expectations, hopefully that answers your question.

24:59

Erin McNeilAnalyst, TD Cowen

Yeah, that was more detailed than I expected. So thank you for that. For my follow up, I got to ask on on PGI, you know, you've previously talked about the benefits and the capital efficiency of owning 60%. But 100% would also likely have benefits, such as, you know, perfect alignment on incremental capital, just given that, you know, you'd have like KKR doesn't have the downstream benefits that you do. So again, to start to get you on the record one way or another, can you speak to your potential appetite to want to consolidate that remaining 40%?

25:37

Unidentified Management

Yeah, I think as a general concept, we generally don't comment on specific M&A situations. But what I can, what I will say in this specific situation is the fact that, you know, we still like the partnership. We like how it was set up, and we believe it's delivering what it was originally intended to do. So we're happy with it.

25:59

Erin McNeilAnalyst, TD Cowen

That's great. Thank you so much. Turn it back.

26:03

Your next question comes from Spiro Dunez of City Group. Please go ahead.

26:09

Spiro DunezAnalyst, Citigroup

Thanks, operator. Morning, team. I want to go back to the outlook quickly. So you've got the Alliance to your process out of the way. You've now got some future contracting done. So address a lot of maybe the larger unknowns headed into 2026. At the same time, you got some tailwinds coming from M&A headwinds from commodity. But it's carried some in the context of that original fee-based EBITDA you provided back in 2024 or 2026.

How do you think a lot of these moving items, in fact, there's plans to that original range?

26:41

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

Spiro, thanks for the question. And it's a really good one because I think that's one of the things we're most proud about. You know, as we set out about a year and a half ago and put that guidance range out at our 2024 investor day, you know, we had a lot of confidence in that range. And frankly, a lot of confidence in being in the upper end of that range. Continue to execute along the same ways that Jared just talked about, you know, through the core-based business through the commercialization, as well as some really, really creative and attractive sort of bolt-on M&A opportunities across our business. And obviously, you know, what we've seen is on one hand a couple headwinds, you know, primarily related to the revised alliance CER settlement.

But what we've also done, as Jared mentioned, is really taking a keen eye to our business and looked for opportunities to operate differently, to operate more efficiently, to focus on work that is higher value ad versus lower value ad. And I would say that, you know, without sort of getting ahead of our 2026 guidance outlook, which will come in about a month's time, I would say we maintain a lot of confidence in obviously achieving that range and achieving a range or a spot in that range, which would reflect something consistent with our own expectations and of our expectations.

So we feel really good about that. We're working really hard on that. And I think, again, you know, we continue to tout the resilience of our business in many ways. And the benefits of the diversity of it, the exposure to multiple commodities, the place that we play in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. And we think that performance, you know, even in light of headwinds, which they come in business demonstrates that.

28:35

Spiro DunezAnalyst, Citigroup

Second one, going back to Dreamlight as well. Could you just put a finer point on when we can expect to start to see cash flows from this project to Pemmina? And when it comes to the phases, I think this initial phase is about half that total capacity and vision. But I know, I think you guys have mentioned four potential phases in total.

Just maybe to remind us again how you're thinking about the remaining phase scope and then the timeline.

29:01

Unidentified Management

Also, so the original phase of phasing was four phases of 450. We are now talking about two phases of roughly 900. So again, we've gone from kind of a first phase of 450 to a first phase of 900, if that makes sense. We would expect based on our current timeline and current estimations that cash flow would occur in 2030.

29:26

Spiro DunezAnalyst, Citigroup

Perfect. Thank you.

29:33

Your next question comes from AJ O'Donnell of TPH. Please go ahead.

29:38

AJ O'DonnellAnalyst, TPH

Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe if I could just sneak one more in about green light, you know, as the data center innovation center.

Conversations continue to pick up momentum. Is that something that you guys have looked at before?

30:08

Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer

AJ, thanks for the question. I mean, we've looked at a variety of different modes and means to facilitate this business. You know, I think from our perspective, what we have in place, the type of facilities and structure we have in place today is scalable and really, really effective for what our customers are looking for. And so that's really what we stay focused on.

30:33

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

AJ, it's Cam here. I would just add on top of that. I think our experience has been when we've looked at, you know, other developments as this occurs. You know, once you get the base, the core assets in place, they do tend to cluster. And obviously, as we think about the advantages that our solution has for this, obviously proximity access to utilities, access to water, all of the embedded advantages. You know, we do see benefits and we do see that, that being an advantage in our offering for the future. So we think there's opportunity beyond this.

31:08

AJ O'DonnellAnalyst, TPH

Okay. Great. Appreciate the detail there. And then maybe if I could just go to cedar real quick. You know, there was a amendment filed for the increase of fee gas capacity from 400 to 500 MMCF.

Curious what the read throughs are there, if you could speak to some of the details and potentially does that equate to, you know, more volumes or more marketing upside. For coming up.

31:39

TaylorUnidentified Management

Hey, Jay, it's too Taylor. I'm maybe trying to provide some clarity. So when we originally were scoping out the project and looking at the size, we did permit the project for free MTP a 400 million cubic feet per day. As we were going through engineering design, we seen an opportunity to, for very minor dollars, increase that capacity from three MTP a to 3.3. And so we undertook that that spend and, and our current, we are currently designing and building to the 3.3. And our announced capital actually incorporates that size. We knew we would have to go back from an amendment to the permits. And so we did that.

And then again, there's no change to the scope of the project or any of the capital cost estimates. Again, as you go through these projects and you continue to work with engineering, we've seen again, engineers don't design right to the exact capacity. They do at that in their facilities and infrastructure. And so we've looked at since we were going for the amendment, we believe the facility has the opportunity for on, you know, on days, particularly cold weather days. There will be an opportunity for incremental throughput through the facility. And so as we were looking to do the amendment, we did increase that size of the amendment and increase it from 400 to 500.

Obviously, we need incremental gas supply. These are potential volumes as we go forward. We will be working on that on a go forward basis. And pardon me, these will be incremental cargos. I'm sorry, beyond what we have contracted. We have only contracted the facility to the 3 MPPA size. So any incremental gas or incremental cargos are upside for us.

33:25

AJ O'DonnellAnalyst, TPH

That's super clear. I appreciate the detail. Thank you.

33:30

Your next question comes from Maurice Choi of RBC capital markets. Please go ahead.

33:36

Maurice ChoyAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Good morning. If I could just start with a question about project execution. When I think about how globally resources are being directed towards supporting the sector. And this could obviously lead to inflationary pressures globally in the coming years. I know that you've highlighted your project execution track record and capability. So just wondering what you tend to do in these early years before those pressures arrive, what actions you tend to take to kind of get ahead of the curve.

34:13

JaredUnidentified Management

One of Maurice. Yeah, so I think the question was really about, you know, future pressures in, you know, certain areas. And, you know, one of the things that we're really focused on in our, and we're really aligned with our board. And they ask us about is, is creating long lasting partnerships with, with tier one contractors and, and obviously indigenous communities. So I think that's, that's part of our overall strategy is, you know, not always going for lowest dollar, but, but committing ourselves to, you know, the safest, making sure that we have the A teams were aligned from the top with respect to our safety messaging and our project execution and the services that we'll be providing.

So I think we've made material ground with respect to that. I think internally here. I've talked about it before. I think we just have a culture of one team, one Pemana. When we're, when we're approaching these projects. And I think it's, it's something that we've been cultivating and, and we're really good at.

35:11

Maurice ChoyAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. And if I could finish off the question on balance sheet in general. Again, just, you know, philosophically, what, what is the comfortable or optimized Christian for you versus the four dot two five maximum that to be better. And where do you see that being better and taking next year to see the LNG.

35:40

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

Hey, Maurice, it's Cam here. Yeah, I think good question because we've talked about that. And obviously, first thing worth reminding everyone is that is a proportionally consolidated numbers. So that reflects not only the debt that we carry at the Pemana level, but debt that that is included in the PGI credit stack, not withstanding the fact that it's recourse, as well as at the moment construction debt associated with CDR LNG, which is obviously again non recourse, but carried at that level. So as we see exiting exiting 2025, obviously, we see that in the, in the sort of the mid threes range because of the timing and really remember that 2026 is the peak investment year for CDR LNG.

Obviously, without any of the commensurate earnings along with it. So if we go back and remind ourselves of our message from our 2024 investor day, you know, we obviously talked about that three year outlook for capital being largely free cash flow neutral with, you know, some, some shape to it throughout those individuals three years and this would be consistent. We obviously are expecting free cash flow positivity in 2025. We saw free cash flow positivity in 2024 and we would expect to see, you know, some free cash flow negativity in in 2026.

However, you know, on the on the long term we feel obviously that we set our balance sheet up to be able to handle that. And obviously, as we move through 2026, we would expect that to moderate back down to the type of range that we've been comfortable with longer term. You know, ultimately, you know, that comfort zone is largely three and a half to four times, you know, could we could we go above that? You know, it's not where we would intend to go in the near term. So, you know, that that's the way we think about the balance sheet at the moment.

37:37

Maurice ChoyAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you.

37:44

The next question comes from Robert Catalier from CIBC capital markets. Please go ahead.

37:51

Robert CatalierAnalyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Rob Catalier from CIBC want to talk about given all your contracting this quarter. Maybe I can start with the mechanics on the synthetic liquefaction agreement with Petronas. Maybe you can walk us through that and the circumstances you need to see to generate that incremental value enhancement.

38:11

Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer

Yeah, I'll talk. I'll talk about the contract in general and then I'll turn it over to Chris to provide some further details. You know, I think if you can appreciate we're still finalizing the other 0.5 million tons. And so, you know, given that the status of that, you know, we're going to stay away from specific details. But what I can tell you is that we were very pleased with with the outcome of that negotiation and maybe Chris, I'll turn over to you to talk about the contract.

38:41

Chris ShermanUnidentified Management

And then as far as contract structure, it's effectively synthetic tooling. I mean, we are, we are taking the obligations we have with cedar and almost entirely pass those on to our customer. And then in addition to passing the terms on, we've been able to capture some participation in the upside of the market. So to the extent the, the ARB is is open and attractive between Canadian ankle gas and the parties.

We'll have an opportunity to capture some of that upside and participate in that.

39:16

Robert CatalierAnalyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay, just generally speaking, in terms of contract in the capacity of cedar, have you been able to leverage that with to other business with Petronas or. Otherwise, and I'm thinking, you know, downstream, what, you know, gathering liquids, fractionation, etc. Yeah, I mean, I don't think we can get into into that right now. But what we will say is we think we have a very strong relationship with Petronas that we're building on with this arrangement and.

And our hope is to continue to build on that and do do much more together.

39:50

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

Hey, Robert, it's Kim here. I guess I would just add on top of that that I think obviously, you know, achieving a partnership with an entity of the prominence in the LNG space like Petronas is, is, I think, really important for us and essentially really validates cedar LNG, you know, in the global scale from an LNG project in terms of both the competitiveness of it and the reality of it. But I think what we would see is, you know, we already had a relationship with Petronas on the upstream side, you know, dating back to the middle of the last decade in terms of servicing them on on the northeast BC side. But we would certainly love and see this as a beachhead to continue to try and expand that we have a ton of respect for them as an organization.

You know, I would say likewise that as we as we think about the remaining balance of cedar and future LNG ambitions, obviously we've had lots of interest from customers in, in our core business, looking to achieve diversity of market access for their volumes and say that, you know, there is a view that cedar is a scarce resource and can continue to drive value both for them, but, but for Pemina in win-win type solutions. So I would say to answer your question pointedly, yes, we are seeing that type of value accretion through the rest of the core business.

41:14

Robert CatalierAnalyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay, that's some good detail. And then just a couple quick ones here. Just given the RFS for revised timeline, it looks like a second quarter in service data. I'm wondering how that interplays with the upcoming NGO contract here, in other words, do you have any available capacity to market there? And will you be able to market it into the upcoming contract here, given the servant state seems to be tight with the start of that year?

41:42

JaredUnidentified Management

A hundred percent Rob Jared here. Yeah, you nailed it. Like, you know, we're working really closely with with our execution team to bring that on as close as we can to the NGL season. For our capacity is very tight in the Ford right now. And so it does give our commercial teams a lot of flexibility to work with customers and bringing them in the closer we can get to April 1st. But yeah, you nailed it.

42:09

Robert CatalierAnalyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. And finally, I'm just curious on the Alliance re-contracting and the one time option for term extension. You know, I think 96% of your firm capacity is contracted. I wondered if there was any contracts there with the marketing affiliates.

No. Thanks, everyone.

42:33

Our next call comes from Ben Pham of BMO. Please go ahead.

42:42

Ben PhamAnalyst, BMO

Thank you. A couple of questions on the piece and the conventional business segment. And I'm wondering if you can characterize or comment on the volume trends in the convention this year. It looks to be more than that. Two, three percent. Context versus the six or seven plus. Before any, you've like it of a face, pick up and. The volumes, but could you comment comment up to some that and what was the thought process into 2026.

With new contracts in the broader business environment.

43:21

Unidentified ManagementChief Financial Officer

Yeah. Hey, Ben. It's Cam. I'll start it and maybe pass it over to Jared. I think one thing I would mention is that obviously, you know, if you. If you stand back for a moment and look at. Our volumes that we report in our conventional, those are obviously, as we said before, always the revenue volumes, which reflect. Our physical volumes plus take or pay contracts that we have in excess of that. And as you go through and try and look at the quarterly trend, you know, it is, it is a bit.

It is it can be a bit misleading if you sort of trying to make. Make meaning out of that on a really narrow timeframe, meaning quarter to quarter. You know, if I stand back for a second and look at what our conventional volumes did, you know, in Q three versus to sequentially. You know, those physical volumes would have been up about four percent quarter over quarter.

So we think if you sort of look at that relative to the industry, if you look at that relative to other basins, you know, that reflects very. Competitive and consistent growth. I think as we sit and look at 2026, you know, it's, it's, it's kind of the, I'll say the heart of that budgeting season right now for everybody. And I think what we expect to see longer term is continued growth in that single digit range. And that's all supported by obviously continuing demand gross from the oil sands. I think we continue to see other infrastructural debondlenecks by our peers. We continue to see the large operators talking about incremental debondlenecks on their, on their projects to drive incremental supply.

And we also see incremental gas demand outlet and incremental supply opportunities in the natural gas side, which of course drives the condensate and the NGL volume. So longer term, we are very, very confident in the continued growth in that, you know, at least in that single digit level. I think in the near term, you know, we have to be mindful that, you know, in the new business environment that our producers operate in where returns and value are paramount over simply, simply volume growth. You know, they are making decisions to optimize their longer term profiles and taking a longer term perspective. So, you know, in any given year, you know, the growth may be more producer specific.

Versus broad based or it may be simply timing related, but, but longer term, we continue to see that. And I think, you know, if you look around our major producers, you know, many are demonstrating growth in that same level. Some are choosing to defer some, but longer term, we continue to see growth in that single digit level.

46:00

JaredUnidentified Management

Yeah, and just add to that, Ben, you know, I think, you know, some of the recent announcements you would have seen the event of new VISTA transaction, you know, the CNRL chevron transaction. You know, although we talk about, you know, some customer consolidation sometimes puts some compression on our business, it's also results in an acceleration of product being produced. So, when Cam talks about specific producers accelerating or staying flat, we have a great relationship with Ubuntu and with new VISTA. They're both very large and dedicated customers, and so, you know, that transaction and Ubuntu talked about accelerating, you know, production and drilling and those types of things on those lands because they have available capacity.

You know, that stuff gets us excited, you know, seeing those consolidations. It's, it's sad to see one of our great customers go, but it's also exciting to see them talk about filling the gas plants faster with 600 million a day of incremental gas processing, or sorry, of 600 million a day of overall the macro trend is oil sense is growing, condensate demands growing, import pipelines are essentially getting really full, so that condensate has to come domestically.

And we're in a great position to support our customers to get to Edmonton and up to the oil sense.

47:34

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Scott Burrows, President and CEO, please continue.

47:41

Scott BurrowsChief Executive Officer

Great. Thank you, everyone, for your time, and we look forward to updating you in the middle of December with our 2026 outlook.

47:51

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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