Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking today will be David McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer, Catherine Gibson, Chief Financial Officer, and Graham Hepworth, Chief Risk Officer. Also joining us today for your questions, Erica Nielsen, Group Head Personal Banking, Shana Madagogi, Group Head Commercial Banking, and Neil McLaughlin, Group Head Wealth Management, and Derek Nelner, Group Head Capital Markets. As noted on slide two, our comments may contain forward-looking statements which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. To give everyone a chance to ask questions, we ask that you limit your questions and then re-queue.

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

Thanks, Awesome, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we reported earnings of $5.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion, our second highest quarterly performance on record. As you'll see on slide 4, pre-provisioned pre-tax earnings were up 15% from last year, benefiting from strong revenue growth of 11% and all-bank operating leverage of over 3%. Our performance this quarter delivered a 17.2% return on equity on the foundation of a robust 13.5% common equity Tier 1 ratio. These results were underpinned by the strengths of our diversified business model, benefiting from both a constructive environment for market-related businesses and operating scale in our Canadian personal bank and commercial banking segments.

Capital markets reported record net income reflecting strong performance in both global markets and investment banking. Wealth management continued to report strong results across our North American advisory and asset management businesses.

Personal banking results were driven by an operating leverage of 3% and growth of in-money balances. Commercial banking generated an ROE of over 17%. Moving to slide 5, starting with capital markets, where global investment banking improved their last 12-month market share to over 2% as we saw record levels of fee-based revenue from strong M&A advisory activity as well as debt and equity origination. In global markets, our ongoing investments in talent and technology are strengthening our equities franchise, which also reported record revenue this quarter. Our strong, thick franchise also reported solid results. We also saw solid growth in our financing transaction banking businesses as we continue to support our clients' growth aspirations. With the leading Canadian franchise as well as the top 10 ranked global business, we are in a great position to support and grow alongside key macro trends, including AI, energy, digital infrastructure, and aerospace and defense around the world.

In AI and related infrastructure, we advise CPIB on its U. S. $4.2 billion acquisition of AtNorth, a pan-Nordic data center operator, as well as acted as joint active book runner on Alphabet's $8.5 billion inaugural Maple Senior Unsecured Notes offering, the largest bond offering ever in the Canadian market. In the energy space, RBC acted as an exclusive financial advisor to ARC Resources on their sale agreement with Shell, a transaction valued at $22 billion. In the United States, RBC acted as joint lead book runner to Firvo Energy on their recent $2.2 billion IPO. Wealth management continues to drive strong performance in a volatile environment.

Clients are coming to us for trusted advice as they move money back into investments across our distribution network, including our full-service Dominion Securities and PHN Investment Council channels, as well as through our personal banking network.

Our leading Canadian wealth management business, with assets under administration of over $1 trillion, U. S. Wealth Management, AUA, of nearly U. S. $800 billion included U. S. $5 billion in net new assets this quarter and over U. S. $2 billion in recruited assets, benefiting from our continued advisor recruitment. Furthermore, credit and lending balances were up 16% from last year, reflecting growing demand from U. S. clients for our full-service capabilities.

Loan growth in Citi National was also strong, up 9% year-over-year in U. S. dollars. RBC Global Asset Management Assets Under Management surpassed $800 billion this quarter, benefiting from leading mutual fund net sales as we continue to capture money in motion in retail channels amidst changing client preferences. In this context, the combined personal banking CANADA average deposits and AUA were up 5%, or $34 billion year-over-year, with spot personal banking AUA surpassing $300 billion for the first time.

We maintain very high retention rates as clients move between deposits and investments. As always, we are guided by doing what we think is right for them given interest rate and equity market conditions. Mortgage growth continued to be impacted by macro uncertainty and moderating house prices with funded volumes largely driven by an increase in switch activity. Importantly, approximately 90% of home equity balances had a multi-product relationship. Commercial banking growth remains resilient, despite facing two structural demand headwinds with Ontario's We are now seeing the greatest impact. Firstly, tariff-driven uncertainty is having a disproportionate impact on the growth in trade-exposed sectors such as supply chain. Secondly, we continue to see moderating demand in commercial real estate, particularly in condo development.

Nonetheless, we have delivered 12 consecutive quarters of market share capture and lending balances as of last quarter. We are seeing growth in healthcare and other service-oriented sectors and regions, such as the Prairie And we are also beginning to see increased FX and cash management related activity.

I will now shift to the macro environment. We are operating in a world of competing signals. Equity markets are hitting record highs, driven in part by expectations of rising corporate profits and an AI-enabled future. At the same time, bond yields tell a different story, reflecting the risk of monetary tightening as inflation pressures build from both the direct and indirect impacts of the energy shock.

Throughout this period of volatility, the Canadian economy has remained resilient, with an annualized GDP growth tracking at 1.7% in Q1-2026. Core inflation, excluding energy, has stayed broadly stable, and our own card spending data shows consumers are still spending in service-related sectors despite the energy disruption.

So far, weakness in tariff-exposed sectors has not spread to the broader economy, with growth seen in several sectors, including energy and agriculture. However, uncertainty remains elevated. The near-term outlook for Canada hinges on how KUSMA negotiations unfold and how long the Middle East conflict persists with impacts yet to be fully felt on input costs. The outcome of these factors will have implications for client demand, supply chain stability, and the direction of monetary policy. Looking further out, there are emerging opportunities that are creating optimism. We believe the resolution of KUSMA uncertainty, new trading relationships and the advancement of major nation-building projects can meaningfully expand the Canadian economic ecosystem, creating a multiplier effect over the near to medium term.

RBC research sheds light on enormous This is a tremendous opportunity for Canada. The country can become an energy superpower, strengthen its presence in the critical mineral supply chain, expand power infrastructure, and build a stronger strategic defense posture. We encourage policymakers and all levels of government to continue to work together to secure Canada's future prosperity. As Canada's largest bank, we are well positioned to support the future, the strong balance sheet, and leading franchises. We've backed that commitment with action. We recently announced an Indigenous advisory and finance practice within RBC Capital Markets to help expand access to capital for Indigenous-owned major projects and investments. Beyond Canada, global fee pools have maintained their momentum as the macro environment continues to support growing corporate activity and strategic boardroom discussions.

Our own investment banking pipeline remains healthy, in part due to our ongoing investments in talent to build bench strength in high priority areas. Moving to slide 6, we constantly strive to optimize long-term shareholder value through increased profitability, client-driven growth, We have increased our return on assets to approximately 90 basis points by executing against key strategic initiatives. We have increased our revenue productivity through our diversified fee-based businesses and by leveraging our technology and operational scale to improve cost efficiency, all while continuing to grow our businesses. We have improved our U. S. region We've gained an efficiency ratio from 83% in 2024 to 75% this quarter. We continue to make significant progress in bringing together our strong U. S. franchises as we drive towards our target of a regional efficiency ratio in the low 70s.

We are also committed to our bold ambitions when it comes to generating $700 million to $1 billion in enterprise value from AI. We've developed over 200 leading edge AI models, rethinking how we operate, streamline workflows, and delivering more hyper-personalized client experiences by leveraging our proprietary Atom Foundation model and our increasing data scale within our Lumina platform. Since 2025, LLM token usage has increased by over 500%, reflecting the speed at which AI is being integrated into daily workflows and critical business processes.

Our digital assistant uses AI for intent detection and orchestration, navigating clients to digital capabilities or the best advisor across the network, allowing our people to focus on deepening client relationships. We have also deployed AI to deliver significant time savings. An AI-powered search of policy and procedure articles for two advisors is processing approximately 2 million searches per month. Commercial banking or clients' financials are being ingested and spread using AI. AI is also accelerating how we're building our technology platform of the future. To date, AI has contributed to the development of over 24 million lines of code and facilitated over 120,000 code reviews. Given the importance of combining technology with talent, we continue to invest in our people to accelerate client-driven, profitable growth opportunities, which remains our priority.

We are hiring senior talent in key sectors and capital markets, growing our advisor base in North American wealth advisory businesses, while adding relationship managers across our commercial banking businesses in Canada and Sydney National Bank.

Beyond these strategic investments, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders in a balanced way. Our total payout ratio has increased from 51% in 2024 to 65% in the first half of 2026. This morning, we increased our dividend by 12 cents from last quarter, a 14% increase year-over-year as we look to drive our dividend payout ratio towards the midpoint of our 40-50% medium-term objective.

Buybacks remain an important avenue for returning capital to shareholders. We increased our buybacks to 7 million shares this quarter at an annualized pace of 2% of our common shares outstanding. Furthermore, we announced our intention this morning, subject to relevant stock exchange and regulatory approvals, to commence a normal course issue bid to repurchase for cancellation up to 45 million common shares. We plan to continue buying back our shares as we believe their intrinsic value remains higher than current valuations, given the opportunities to improve both profitability and growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet in an uncertain However, we remain disciplined. We will look to optimize not only ROE and EPS growth, but also the compounding of our book value per share growth, which is also an important driver of long-term shareholder value.

And with that, Catherine, over to you.

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Starting with slide 8, this quarter we reported strong results with diluted earnings per share of $3.85. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.90 was up 25% from last year, reflecting solid revenue growth in all bank operating leverage of 2%. FX trends, including U. S. dollar weakness, reduced earnings by $85 million from last year, and earnings were sequentially impacted by three fewer days this quarter.

Turning to capital on slide 9, the CET1 ratio of 13.5% was down 20 basis points from last quarter. Our strong ROE of 17.2% was underpinned by 75 basis points of internal capital generation this quarter. Net of both dividends and client-driven RWA growth, we generated 23 basis points of capital, which was mostly offset by repurchases of 7.4 million shares for approximately $1.7 billion.

Retail parameter changes, which we guided to in Q1, and the impact of market movements on OCI balances also had a modest negative impact. Moving to slide 10 all bank net interest income was up 6 from last year reflecting volume growth and higher spreads This was partly offset by lower purchase price adjustments or PPA related to the acquisition of HSBC CANADA All bank net interest margin was up 3 basis points from last quarter All bank NIM excluding trading revenue was down two basis points sequentially including the impact of lower lending spreads in capital markets which partly reflects a shift toward investment loans As a reminder, the cost of funding of certain transactions, particularly in capital markets, is recorded in interest expense, while related revenue is recorded in other non-interest income.

This was particularly evident on a year-over-year basis this quarter. Canadian banking NIM was flat relative to last quarter, including a four basis point impact From lower HSBC CANADA acquisition related PPA, and increased competitive pricing pressures for term deposits. These were offset by continued benefits from our structural hedges and seasonally higher spreads within our lending portfolio, which in the past has included items such as higher credit card revolve rates.

Moving to slide 11, reported non-interest expense was The ROYAL BANK OF CANADA earnings were up 8% from last year. Adjusted expense growth was 9%, of which approximately half was driven by higher variable compensation, consisting with higher revenues in wealth management and capital markets. The remainder of the increase was largely driven by a combination of growth-related initiatives, including higher salaries and other staff-related costs, as well as ongoing technology initiatives, marketing and business development. Legal provisions of $84 million in corporate support also contributed to the increase. Our adjusted all-bank operating leverage of 2% helped lower our all-bank adjusted efficiency ratio by one percentage point from last year as we continue to focus on expense discipline. This includes optimizing our multi-channel distribution network and leveraging both digital We will now turn to our Q2 segment results beginning on slide 12.

Personal banking reported strong earnings of $1.9 billion this quarter. Net income in personal banking First, personal banking reported strong earnings of $1.9 billion this quarter. Net income in personal banking Canada was up 18% from last year. Revenue growth was 6%, benefiting from the strength of our leading scale and money-in franchise, as client balances shifted between core banking accounts, term deposits, and our diverse investment offerings, including within our wealth management business. Net interest income was up 6% from last year, reflecting solid average volume growth and higher margins. Non-interest income was up 5% from last year, reflecting double-digit growth in mutual fund revenue, partly offset by lower service charges, including impacts from regulatory changes we guided to in Q1.

Volatility in card service revenue also impacted The report is a great example of the report. Operating leverage was strong, 4%, benefiting from continued expense management. Turning to slide 13, commercial banking reported strong net income of $854 million, up 43% from last year, which included elevated PCL on both performing and impaired loans. Pre-provision pre-tax earnings were up 5% from last year, driven by higher net interest income growth, Reflecting higher volumes and a favorable deposit mix, as well as higher margins. Deposits increased 3% from last year and flat sequentially, largely driven by higher non-maturity deposits despite seasonally higher tax payment activity by our clients. Admits continued tariff-related uncertainties, loans were up 3% from last year or 1% sequentially.

Turning to wealth management on slide 14, net income of $1.2 billion was up 28% from last year, reflecting strong revenue growth. Non-interest income was up 10%, reflecting higher fee-paced client assets driven by market appreciation, particularly in North American equity markets and net new asset growth. In RBC Global Asset Management, we continue to see positive retail net sales, with $5.2 billion in long-term retail, largely distributed across equity and balance mandates. This is partly offset by outflows in institutional mandates, which can be lumpy in nature.

Transaction revenue, reflecting increased client activity in Canadian wealth management, also contributed to the increase. Net interest income was up 10% from last year, benefiting from higher spreads, reflecting higher mortgage roll-on rates and loan growth in U. S. wealth management, including Citi National Bank. Canadian wealth management also contributed to the increase, reflecting deposit growth.

Turning to our capital markets results on slide 15, record net income of $1.5 billion increased 23% from last year, underpinning a strong ROE of 14.8% and an efficiency ratio of 53.2%. Strong pre-provision, pre-tax earnings of $1.8 billion was up 30% from last year, reflecting strong revenue growth. Global markets revenue was up 16% from last year, reflecting continued momentum in cash equities and derivatives and a rebound in credit trading from a challenging market backdrop last year.

This was partly offset by market headwinds for rates trading in Europe this quarter. Corporate investment banking revenue was a record, up 17% from last year. Investment banking revenue was up 27% from last year, and lending and transaction banking revenue was up 10%, driven by higher volumes.

Turning to slide 16, insurance net income of $218 million was up 3% from last year, reflecting strong insurance investment results from lower funding costs as well as lower expenses. This is partly offset by lower insurance service Results on unfavorable claims experience, offset partly by the favorable impact of reinsurance contract recaptures. Premiums and deposits were up 17% from last year, reflecting strong, segregated funds and group annuity sales. Corporate support reported a net loss of $102 million. Segment net interest income and expenses represented a modest 2% and 1% of all bank results, respectively. We are similarly disciplined when it comes to allocating capital internally, including a 12.1% capital attribution rate to our business segment, which we increased last year.

We also allocate the leverage required to each business segment's attributed capital. In conclusion, I will now spend a few minutes updating our outlook for the remainder of 2026. We continue to expect that annual all-bank net interest income growth, excluding trading, to be in the mid-single-digit range, including over $250 million of lower PPA benefits. We expect portfolio mortgage spreads to be marginally higher by the end of 2026, as roll-on spreads Sponsored spreads are expected to be slightly higher than roll-off spreads. However, any changes in competitive intensity could provide headwind. We also maintain our guidance of full-year all-bank expense growth in the mid-single-digit range and positive all-bank operating leverage, including higher variable compensation and costs associated with growth-related initiatives We will continue to invest in our safety and soundness framework.

Lastly, given the uncertain environment, we intend to maintain capital levels closer to the higher end of our targeted CT1 range, while returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

With that, I will now turn it over to Graham.

Great, thank you, Kathryn, and good morning, everyone. I will now discuss our allowances in the context of the current macroeconomic environment, evolving geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade uncertainty. As Dave noted earlier, while North American economies continue to show resilience, we are also seeing soft underlying conditions, with geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties pushing inflation and interest rate risk higher, imposing potential headwinds to growth. Currently, our Canadian GDP growth and unemployment rate base case forecasts A little change from last quarter. However, the base case is conditional on the conflict in the Middle East being resolved in the near term and the core of KUSMA largely remaining intact. While our base case outlook remains cautiously optimistic, the uncertainty around our forecast has increased.

As a result, we have incorporated a modest amount of additional severity into our downside macroeconomic scenarios. Furthermore, consistent with the last four quarters, we have also retained elevated weightings to our downside scenarios. These scenarios incorporate This is a great potential impacts from inflationary and geopolitical headwinds.

Turning to slide 18, we took a total of 18 million or one basis points of provisions on performing loans this quarter. This was driven by unfavourable macroeconomic impacts, which were partially offset by changes in credit quality and updates to our retail models.

Moving to slide 19, gross impaired loans of $9.8 billion increased by $623 million or four basis points from last quarter, primarily driven by capital markets and wealth management. In capital markets, impaired loans increased by $321 million, driven by formations across a few sectors, including real estate, forest products, and consumer discretionary. The increase in real estate is predominantly driven by one larger commercial real estate file in the U. S. In wealth management, impaired loans have increased by $224 million, predominantly in city national, and driven by names in utilities, real estate, and other services sectors, as well as our consumer mortgage portfolio. Recall that in the first quarter of 2025, we had increased This quarter we have identified a small subset of higher risk clients, most of which were subject to deferral programs, that we have now moved into impaired status.

When impaired loans remain elevated, new formations decreased quarter over quarter across most segments, including capital markets. Turning to slide 20, PCL on impaired loans of 34 basis points or 899 million was down 169 million or 6 basis points quarter over quarter. Reflecting lower More provisions across capital markets, personal banking, and commercial banking. In capital markets, PCL on impaired loans totaled $113 million, down $132 million quarter-over-quarter due to the absence of any larger losses on new individual impairments, partially offset by incremental provisions on some existing impaired names. In personal banking, PCL on impaired loans totaled $488 million, or 36 basis points, down $28 million quarter-over-quarter driven by lower provisions in residential mortgages and personal loans, partially offset by higher The credit card portfolio in particular has seen a sustained increase in PCL over the last few quarters, driven by regional pressures, particularly in Ontario.

In commercial banking, PCL on impaired loans totaled 246 million, or 53 basis points, down 27 million quarter over quarter. While we saw a reduction in new provisions, impairments remain elevated due to softer economic conditions in Canada, especially in economically sensitive sectors and regions. In wealth management, PCL unimpaired loans sold 52 million or 16 basis points, up 18 million quarter per quarter, with new provisions in both the utilities and other sectors.

To conclude, while we are pleased with the current performance this quarter, we continue to have a cautious outlook on credit. With the Canadian economy, we are seeing signs of stabilization, and we expect to see continued modest economic growth. Sectors exposed to U. S. tariffs have experienced job losses, but those losses have not spread to the broader economy. Internally, credit indicators have generally been stable or improving. This includes the stabilizing delinquency rates across most retail products, as well as moderate improvements in wholesale indicators such as watchlist exposure and files moving to our workout team.

In terms of the external environment, headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, U. S. tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, and a shrinking population will likely keep economic risks elevated. Despite heightened uncertainty, we remain confident in the overall quality, diversification, and resilience in our portfolios. Our robust provisioning framework and monitoring allow us to assess a wide range of potential outcomes and impacts to our portfolio. We continue to expect our full year 2026 provisions on impaired loans to remain within the range we previously guided to. Now back to Dave.

Thanks, Graham. So to close, we continue to execute against our strategic priorities and look to drive improvements in our profitability metrics while deploying capital for client driven growth and returning capital shareholders. Our underlying strength is built on a foundation A robust balance sheet and one RBC diversified business model where we have leading scale in our home market while having a diversified footprint at scale beyond Canada. This combination has underpinned the resilience of our earnings through several shocks over the recent cycle, generating an average ROE of 16% from 2020 onwards and over 17% over the last 12 months.

With that, operator, let's open the lines for Q&A.

Yeah, thanks, Iram. A very good question. So I feel good about where we are. I think I'm really impressed by the resilience of the Canadian economy right now. When you think about positive growth that we're looking at, our forecast might be on the more optimistic side in our economics group, but we're thinking 1.5% to 1.6% GDP growth over the coming four quarters. And that in the face of very little residential real estate activity very little commercial activity The fact that that such a big part of the Canadian economy and we shown an ability to grow through that the consumer is still spending and the consumer is saving as well So I see so many positive trends in the Canadian economy that's allowed us to be resilient to what we have.

Notwithstanding that, we should be all eyes wide open about the Section 232 impacts that I've had on the Ontario economy in particular. It's led to credit weakness that we've recognized in our portfolio in Stage 3 and Stage 1 and 2 builds, as you know. So there is a little bit of caution there that we're not through the Section 232s. But I still come back to this is an important trade deal for both countries. It's pursuing along a track that's not dissimilar to the track that happened the last time.

And I'm optimistic we'll get to something that's good for both countries. So I'm impressed by the resilience, notwithstanding. You know, the Section 232s have impacted the Canadian economy and created some weakness there. And then there's the longer-term investment. You saw the risk on Canada. You saw the investment flow shifting. You saw Canada moving in. Again, these are going to still take a while to get shovels in the ground, but they're moving at a pace and in parallel that we haven't seen before.

And I'm excited about the opportunity to deploy RBC capital into that, and we have a significant balance sheet to do that. We're going to have an investment forum, again, with the Prime Minister in the fall, and we're going to showcase some of these, And a number of these energy opportunities, bare-of-minerals, infrastructure opportunities, electricity grid. And you go through the fence build. You go through the opportunities for this country to deploy capital that creates value for our partners around the world and diversifies our economy. It's really, really significant. And I haven't seen it in my kind of 40 years in this organization. So, you know, the resilience in the short term, the meaningful opportunities in the long term, and part of that resilience I should mention is we are running a structural fiscal deficit as well across provinces and governments, and therefore, like the U. S. economy that's significantly bolstered by a structural fiscal deficit at the government level, so is the Canadian economy.

That's going to help us absorb some of the uncertainty in the short term. So, I hope that answers your question, but I think resilience in the short term, growth in the medium term. I think that's well put. And maybe a follow-up, Dave. The other thing here that investors are sort of actively thinking about is disruption risks to banks, legacy revenue streams and margins. As we think about like AI and the effort by the OSFI to sort of accelerate fintech charters, just frame that for us. When you think about, I mean, you'll have been at the forefront or ahead of the pack, I would argue on all things AI. One, the opportunity is that meaningful, do you think, in a market like Canada that can fall to the bottom line?

And secondly, the risk from fintechs being able to scale up at a much faster rate due to AI and how you think about disruption risk. Thanks. I do think it's a really meaningful opportunity. We gave you some data points as we continued. We've built over 200 models. We have our employees that are making great use of this. You see the productivity lift that's making our employees more efficient, more effective. The ability for us to serve, I think, 25 million customers with the same cost base is our objective. So when you look at the opportunities to marry this AI capability with our commercial account managers, with our private bankers, with our wealth managers, with our asset managers, you look at our investment bankers, you look at the productivity lift, and the ability to be more efficient but more effective as well in front of the customer, it's a significant lift, and it's really exciting.

I think it's going to make our employees better, and it's going to make our employees more effective in front of the customer, and it's going to allow them to serve more customers at the same time. And therefore, we're super excited about that across every single business, including right into the back office. So I think this is meaningful. We put that billion-dollar target out there. We fully intend on meeting that target over the next 18 months, as we put into the investor day. And then we'll take it from there. I just see the pervasiveness of the technology capability throughout the bank. So your second point on disruption. I've seen this model, this scenario run throughout my career, and I always come back to the basic foundation is, are we capable of building the same thing?

Is there anything inherent in a patent or a capability that we can't do? And the answer is absolutely not. In fact, we have enormous scale. And to create these technologies and accelerate their deployment into our business model. So there's nothing that we see out there that we can't do just as quickly. The other advantage and moat that we have is in this complex world fraught with risk and fraud and uncertainty, trust and brand and security become paramount. And therefore, I don't think customers are going to choose non-regulated finance institutions for their savings. You know, what is the cyber risk of that institution? What is the capital base of that institution to absorb errors and fraud and operational risk?

So, you know, we talk about, you know, customers will move their money freely. No, I think customers are going to be judicious in trust and brand and scale and capability and price. I mean, I think that all goes together. It's not just going to be on price. And we've seen that throughout history at the end of the day. So we're competing, I think, with moats as well that are not going to disintermediate. And then, you know, if there is a competition, we're fully capable of building this. You've seen our response with GoSmart and our ambition to build that out into, you know, a much bigger capability for our clients and we can respond. So I think that's the premise I keep coming back to.

I always ask and make sure, can we build it? Can we deploy this? Is there anything different between our product and theirs? No. Okay. Is this a price issue? Okay, then let's talk about price. So I think that's how I would look at it. We feel fully confident in matching any of the tools out there.

Got it. Thanks, Dave.

Yeah, thanks, Gabe. Coverage ratios. Yeah, thanks. Good question. And that's Graham. What I would point to within that, so the build we did do related to kind of that uncertainty, we certainly acknowledge it. I would say we did, you know, increase the severity of our downside scenarios. Roughly speaking, that would have added about $80 million to our stage one and two provisions, all else being equal. But kind of the counter to that, what played out this quarter, is the credit quality side of it, right? As I noted in my comments, we've seen more stability, if not some improvements in a lot of our kind of credit indicators, if you will, ratings migration, watch list, delinquency trends.

And so credit has, for the last, I think since the beginning of 2025, we've been adding about $80 million a year to our performing loan loss allowances for credit quality, just reflecting kind of those increasing trends around delinquencies, etc. With that stability playing through this quarter, we actually released $20 million on credit quality. You are seeing that credit quality, that stability playing through into our performing loan loss calculations. That is what kind of countered that build on that severity and kind of left this in a bit more of a neutral status there. And then maybe just kind of to support that, you did note the increase in the GIL ratio. Again, I think more importantly is just noting the new formations.

I think that's a better indicator of some of the trends we're seeing, we've seen in generally improving trends on new formations. The GIL ratio itself, it's getting higher. I would expect it to increase going forward. That's just reflecting a few things. Even as new formations kind of stabilize, workouts are just taking longer. When you look at, say, res mortgages, there's a fixed capacity in the system, and we're at that fixed capacity. Until that starts to balance better, we will just see that GIL ratio increase. Likewise, on the wholesale side, again, while we are seeing some better trends there, it is still very uneven. We might look at some of the bigger names in our GIL balances on the wholesale side.

I would not expect we will see resolution on those files, probably closer to the tail end of this year. There is a timing part of when resolutions ultimately play out in those GIL ratios. Okay, thanks for that. And then on the margin side of the discussion, I think that HSBC purchase accretion is behind us now, so steady state now. Your tractors are tailwind, I suppose. The mortgage refinancing in the back half sounds marginally positive. Is that a little bit less It's less spread enhancing than you thought previously. Just throwing a few things together, but I want to get your general outlook for NIM going forward. Thanks.

Good morning, Gabe. It's Catherine. I'll take that question, and then I'll get Erica to just step in, because we've also got the money in motion, which is playing a key part in our results and expected to as we go forward. So you probably have heard me say this before, like for the all-bank NIM, we feel that it's got a lot of moving parts, and so actually I'll guide you to the guidance on the net interest income excluding trading, which I said remains in the mid-signal digits. I feel like it's a better construct for Canadian banking, so if I take it to the CB NIM level, we are expecting it to be largely stable over the back half of the year.

As I mentioned in my remarks, there is a little bit of seasonality that played into Q2, so we'll likely see some volatility between the quarters and the second half of the year as that seasonality rolls off. But the key drivers, as you've called out, will have as tailwinds would be the tractors, so that'll continue to play out for the rest of the year. We'll have some of that mortgage roll on and roll off that Erica can touch on as well. And then I would say the unknowns is really the competitor actions and then the client actions as well. It's just to the degree that as we've seen term deposits roll down, how much will move into demand deposits and how much will move into investment products.

But even as it moves into investment products, yes, that's a compression to NIM, but overall, just a reminder, it's still positive to revenue for the organization. So that'll turn it to Erica.

Thanks, Catherine, and thanks for the question. On mortgages in particular, as we look to the back half, Gabe, you're quite right that on the roll-off dynamics on that portfolio, we do see lower spread mortgages rolling off. As we think about the back half, there's a couple of different dynamics we're watching. One is the competitive intensity as it relates to price as we go into the latter half of the spring-summer market and into the fall. And, of course, we want to compete effectively, but we want to balance the margin that we're going to earn on the volume that we're competing for. So that will play a role. The second dynamic that's happening in there is, of course, how we think about hedging and the cost of that hedging, which has been more volatile in the last quarter than it has been in prior quarters.

And sometimes we have to – that's a cost to the business that we have. And so we'll see where markets are as we go through the back half of the year to determine how those hedge costs perform. Thank you.

Yeah, maybe I'll take that. It's Dave. Thank you, Matthew, for your question. You know, certainly as we look across our businesses, you know, to capitalize on growth, it is an organic story for us. We, you know, obviously have done a great job in integrating HSBC and we have growth opportunity from those clients, We're well on our way to meeting our cross-sell commitments of $300 million and a little over halfway there already. So we're seeing growth out of the HSBC portfolio. You're seeing strong growth coming out of City National. We reported 9% growth out of that business. So we're adding account managers. We're seeing strong demand on that side. We're seeing geographic expansion. So City National is on its front foot.

So you're seeing good client flow. You're seeing the capital markets, and maybe I'll turn it to Derek next to talk about his pipeline and what's going on, but we're seeing very strong client flow activity through our advisory businesses, our equity capital markets businesses. Obviously, it's a lot of corporate-driven activity, which is good to see as well, and a balance there. And then you're seeing an opportunity for the residential mortgage business to restart. You're seeing green shoots, as Erica mentioned, and that provides a foundation for growth. And commercial banking demand from, hopefully, the uncertainty alleviating and cross-border trade, all of that before we get into the major projects that we can fund. And then there's a cost opportunity.

There's a very significant opportunity for us to continue to be more efficient in this organization, deploying AI as part of that. And those benefits are really just starting to accrue as we deploy those 200 models across the organization and embed them in our flow. So you've got growth, you've got costs, and all those are very supportive of structural ROEs. And we don't even really need margin expansion. Margin stability gets us there. But some of our businesses are operating at historically low margins as well. And therefore, you heard us mention that we're hopeful, given how tight funding is for many organizations, that you get back to a little more reasonable margins and better hurdles than you're seeing today.

So I'll stop there. I'll provide some more comments in my summary. But maybe, Derek, just on the capital market side to talk about the opportunities for growth you're seeing.

Sure Thanks Dave and thanks for the question I mean just a few observations I would make Obviously we had a very strong quarter Importantly we continue to see that activity as we look forward Our pipelines on the investment banking side remain at record levels I think the conditions that have driven very high levels of client activity in our sales and trading and global markets business continue to be in place and we seeing very good demand from clients for lending and financing capital to help support those initiatives And so certainly as we look forward, we continue to see a very constructive environment for our clients. Against that backdrop, and consistent with our investor day messaging, we see lots of opportunities for organic growth across all four of our major businesses in capital markets.

So in global markets, we're investing in our sales teams, we're investing in building out new capabilities around our equities, FX and commodities platforms, as well as broader financing platforms. In investment banking, we continue to make very good progress on hiring and building out our sector capabilities. And then importantly, in corporate banking, the loan growth to support both our markets clients and our investment banking clients against their most important strategic initiatives is critical.

And then finally, obviously, we're seeing great progress in our global transaction banking and cash management build out, and we continue to see opportunities to deploy capital to invest in those product capabilities. And finally, I would just say, you know, Dave touched on a little bit earlier, but when I bring a geographic lens to us, we're very optimistic about the levels of activity we have seen and we anticipate going forward in Canada, in line with a number of the major government-supported initiatives. The U. S. as our second home market is obviously a very large opportunity for us, and we've got a, it's the largest part of our business today, but significant growth ahead. And then increasingly, we see some very good opportunities to continue to invest and expand our footprint in Europe.

So right across the businesses and our three core geographies, we see very good opportunities for organic capital investment.

I think we should go to the next question. Thanks, Derek.

There's a lot in that question, so let me start on macro at your last question. Yeah, we're absolutely targeting an ROA of 1%, as you saw in our investor day, moving it there. So I think from that perspective, we want to continue to move that higher. And I think from all the levers that we have from growth, from efficiency and productivity, the capabilities are driving us to aspire to a higher ROA. ROA, and as that filters through into our overall decisions to deploy capital and return capital to shareholders, I think where our posture is today is that we're a little bit conservative in that we're going to keep our capital levels towards the higher end of that range.

You saw us deploy 2% share buyback, and that was a use of what about 30 basis points of capital, RWA capital, roughly. So I think from that perspective, we'll keep it closer to the higher end in the short term as we get through the conflicts and the war and the uncertainty around trade agreement and Section 232 impacts. But then as we look at our commitment to keep returning capital to you above that is an important marker for us as we'll continue to do buybacks.

And you saw us announce an NCIB to do that up to 3% of our shares. So returning capital to you will be a constant trend. And then we'll look for opportunities to accelerate that as we did in Q2 to get higher into that range more towards that 2% to 3%. So I think it's not a change in how we've articulated it, SORAB. It's being strategic and tactical, I might call it, at the same time, that there's a constant level of return, and then there's going to be an acceleration in our desire to do that. And yes, we do feel we can operate this bank over the median term at a lower target CT1 ratio in that range.

And therefore, we're not saying that we're always going to be at 13.5, but we want to be there now.

But I do say that I can see running this bank at a lower capital level and returning that capital to you. And we're generating such significant capital through our profitability, and we think we're going to enhance our profitability going forward. We're going to generate even more capital. But from that range, we do see ourselves moving into the mid-range or lower end of that range over time, continuing to return capital through organic and capital returns. So I hope that helps. It's tactical in the short term, but it's continued to be strategically aligned towards that. Where the ROEs end up, we're committed to exceeding as best we can our target ROE that we gave you of 17 plus percent.

We had a very strong ROE this quarter and a shortened quarter that tells you their earnings power and the capital efficiency of this organization continues to improve and we expect it to continue to improve. I have also guided that we balance growth, and growth and EPS are really important. Therefore, why would you turn a 13% or 14% ROE opportunity down if you can continue to drive an overall balance and mix in your organization of 17++% going forward? So we're always trying to balance growth and EPS growth with book value growth per share along with target ROEs. And I think the capital efficiency and the operational efficiency opportunity is going to allow us to do all of that.

I think that's the magic in our business model that we'll continue to improve on all those metrics. And I think that gives us enormous shareholder value creation opportunity. Thank you.

Thank you, Mary. Sean, on the commercial side, we have 3% year-over-year, 1% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. I would say we have been pleased with our commercial growth for an elongated period. We have taken share capture for 12 consecutive quarters, as Dave mentioned, leading into Q1. We don't We don't have the full results for Q2 yet. And going forward, we're really starting to see some nice tailwinds. Our pipelines are really strong. We've seen continued growth and resilience in some of the sectors that have been less impacted by tariffs like agriculture, public sector services, healthcare, you know, seniors housing, etc. We've seen some really strong month-over-month momentum in March and April. We've seen the largest month-over-month growth rates that we've seen in about six months also in the business.

And then we're also starting to see some pickup in Ontario real estate directly correlated to the HSC announcements and some early wins in the defense sector. So I've got some confidence that we're going to continue to pick up share and grow into the second half of the year. And that's further amplified, as Dave mentioned, with the medium-term benefits that we'll see from the infrastructure spend, the impact of the new global trade agreements, as well as the eventual KUSMA resolution.

Sure. Thanks for the question, Merrill. Yeah, we obviously saw very good growth in the corporate loan book, quarter over quarter, as you highlighted. A few things I would highlight. One, that really reflects some of the broader activity we're seeing amongst clients, both in terms of strategic M&A, which sometimes requires term loans or bridges that are shorter term in nature as they fund into those acquisitions, as well as some of the organic capital build that we're seeing across major infrastructure investments and otherwise. In addition, we had very good success this quarter adding some new large clients, and so these were larger investment grade names that we've been building relationships with across the platform and finally had the opportunity to come into their core banking group, which was a very nice win for us.

So it really reflected growth across those three areas. Broadly, we're being very disciplined in how we're managing risk and capital allocation around it. That incremental growth you saw this quarter skewed more heavily investment grade than our broader book, so it's actually increased the overall credit quality of the book, notwithstanding the higher level of growth you saw in the quarter.

Thanks, Paul. Very good question. I'd really break it into three pieces. As I mentioned, in terms of the near-term visibility of our pipelines that we see, we continue to be very encouraged by the level of activity. That certainly will carry us through a number of quarters. To your question, when we think sort of medium term and how sustainable is the level of client activity, you know, there can always be macro shocks or other things. But our base case is we think some of the structural dynamics that are really fueling activity amongst both our corporate and private asset and institutional asset management clients really remain intact. And so, you know, touching on those, obviously, some of the geopolitical uncertainty, the uncertainty that's creating around the economy, inflation, commodities, etc. , these are all driving heightened levels of run rate trading activity in our markets business.

We think a lot of those, you know, trends in terms of the environment we're in over likely the next few years stay intact. They'll ebb and flow a little bit quarter to quarter, but the volatility and the level of uncertainty that we're seeing from a variety of different factors probably persists. Within the investment banking and corporate banking business, usually when you see that uncertainty, you might see lower activity, but what we're seeing is some multi-year strategic trends that are driving activity. So when you think about shifts to supply chains, benefits of scale, obviously very constructive regulatory environments that are facilitating transactions and consolidation, energy transition, digital infrastructure spending, these are all multi-year trends that we think will continue to drive activity and capital required for investment.

And then finally, I would just say, you know, we can't control the environment. We're optimistic on the outlook. But if there was some shock and we saw a slowdown, we take a lot of comfort in the incremental growth strategies we have that can outperform irrespective of what the market environment brings and the core stability and quality of our franchise that I think you've seen play out over many years in terms of lower volatility of results in many of our peers.

Mike, thanks for your question. Just a couple of reflections. When we think about the personal bank, we play a very large role in the growth of our clients across all of our businesses. So, you know, you think about the, we talked about it in the last quarter, some of the accelerated movement of money from the personal bank into wealth management. So, you know, when you look at those figures at the bottom left of 24, that is also us supporting a rotation back into equities, both in our broker GICs and RISA business, as well as in our core personal banking business going over to our direct investing and DS channel. And then as well some of the rotation that's happening on our own balance sheet as clients are coming out of term deposits and going into mutual funds.

And we had a stellar quarter from a mutual funds perspective in Q2. We saw February was our second highest month ever in mutual fund sales, and our market capture at about 25% of the bank market capture was tremendous. And so we know we're supporting clients as they rotate into their long-term positions of having the balance between savings and equities, and we'll continue to support that as the organization for our clients.

Thanks, Erica.

So that brings our call to a close. Again, we had a very strong quarter. You saw strong client flows across all our businesses. You saw, you know, really good margins and enhanced profitability from that. And I think the theme that you should hopefully take away from this is very good growth opportunities across all our businesses, commercial, capital markets, the consumer bank, insurance, wealth management, not just in Canada, but the United States and in Europe, which we didn't get to touch on as much as well today. So thank you very much for your questions and look forward to seeing you next quarter.