Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Arch Capital Group call on July 29, 2026.

Held
July 29, 2026
Length
1 h 3 min
Tone
Positive0.68
Analysts
11
Words
8,807
Quarterly share repurchases
$1.2 billion12.4 million shares
First-half earnings returned
approximately 94%Repurchased in company shares
Next-two-quarter interest expense
$60 to $63 millionPer quarter
Debt plus preferred leverage
18.1%At quarter-end
Peak-zone net PML
$1.8 billion8% of tangible equity
Property-cat rate reductions
mid teensMid-year renewals
Annual group catastrophe load
68%Unchanged

Summary

Management framed strong execution and capital returns against an early, increasingly competitive soft market.

  • Mid-teens property-cat rate reductions still left pricing above pre-Hurricane Ian levels.
  • $1.2B$1.2 billion of buybacks reflected attractive valuation, but management gave no run-rate commitment before wind season.
  • Selective casualty opportunities remained attractive despite excess reinsurance capacity and tightening terms scrutiny.

Guidance

  • $63M$60 to $63 million interest expense for each of the next two quarters.
  • Operating expense ratio should revert to historical levels during the second half.
  • 68%68% annual group catastrophe load remains unchanged.

What analysts pressed on

  • 01Insurance loss-ratio sustainability was supported by stable current assumptions, favorable program runoff, and no systematic loss-pick reductions.
  • 02Buyback durability was left unquantified; management cited valuation, excess capital, and wind-season uncertainty.
  • 03Casualty reinsurance appetite remains intact, but deployment depends on specialty risks, adequate terms, and suitable ceding companies.
  • 04Iran loss quantification was declined; refinery claims are established, while business-interruption severity remains uncertain.
  • 05Social-inflation defenses have not yet produced measurable improvement in Arch’s loss-trend data.
  • 06Future PML reductions remain possible, but management would not commit to returning to the prior 4% level.

Notable disclosures

  • $1.2B$1.2 billion quarterly buybacks exceeded quarterly operating income for the first time, without establishing a target payout ratio.
  • Mid-teens property-cat rate reductions were concentrated across layers, unlike prior periods when higher layers saw larger decreases.
  • Iran losses reflect actual refinery damage claims rather than hypothetical IBNR, with business interruption still unresolved.
  • 8%8% PML-to-tangible-equity exposure compares with 4% during the previous soft market, reflecting Arch’s larger platform.

Risks raised

  • Increasing property competition and client risk retention are reducing premium growth and net exposure.
  • Iran-related business-interruption claims could materially alter losses beyond established refinery damage reserves.
  • Social inflation remains embedded because tort reform and stronger defense outcomes are not yet visible in loss data.
  • Affordability and housing-supply constraints continue limiting new mortgage originations.
  • Hurricane-season uncertainty remains a consideration for capital deployment and catastrophe-retrocession decisions.

Tone: Positive 0.68

Strong underwriting, capital returns, and confidence in earnings outweighed acknowledged softening, catastrophe uncertainty, and limited forward numerical commitments.

Who spoke

Company

  • Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer
  • Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Analysts

  • Andrew KligermanAnalyst, TD Cowen
  • Cave MontazeriAnalyst, Deutsche Bank
  • Rob CoxAnalyst, Goldman Sachs
  • David MotemadenAnalyst, Evercore ISI
  • Tracy BenguiguiAnalyst, Wolfe Research
  • Yaron KinarAnalyst, Mizuho
  • Brian MeredithAnalyst, UBS
  • Mike ZaremskiAnalyst, BMO
  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets
  • Elyse GreenspanAnalyst, Wells Fargo
  • Meyer ShieldsAnalyst, KBW

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 2Q2026 Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the Federal Securities Laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10K for the 2025 fiscal year. Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby. Management will also make reference to certain non-GAP measures of financial performance. The Reconciliations to GAP for each non-GAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8K, furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release, and is available on the company's website at www. archgroup. com and on the SEC's website at www. sec. gov. I would now like to introduce your hosts for today's conference, Mr. Nicholas Papa-Dapolo and Mr. Francois Moray. Sirs, you may begin.

02:08

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

Good morning, and welcome to Archer's second-quarter earnings call. We reported strong earnings with quarter with solid underwriting performance from each of our three segments.

After tax operating income in the quarter was $893 million or $2.56 of earnings per share. Slowing, top-line growth, and strong earnings freed up capital for additional share repurchases in the quarter, bringing the total for the first half of the year to $1.95 billion. Book value per share grew by 2.8% in the quarter and has increased by 4.5% in the first half of the year.

While the underwriting environment is increasingly competitive, it is important to note that we are still in the early stages of the softening market. Overall, fundamentals are attractive with some line experiencing increased competition, while others continue to see rate increases. Archer's diversified business model ensures that we can find opportunities to deploy capital that generate appropriate risk-adjusted returns.

Our position as an industry leader in specialty insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance provides us with a meaningful competitive advantage. Clients come to us not only for capacity, but also for our underwriting expertise, claim capabilities, and valuable perspectives that help them better manage risk. Our commitment to cycle management is embedded in our culture and guide our underwriting approach.

This is reinforced by compensation structure that incentivizes quality underwriting by aligning performance with long-term profitability and shareholder returns. Let us now turn to our segment performance. Starting with insurance, we are negatively affected by catastrophe losses related to the Iran conflict. Art is a leading rider of political violence, terrorism, and marine war in the London market. So, while losses affected these quarters results, we are seeing ongoing opportunities to support clients with assets in the region.

Underwriting income of $27 million does not reflect the good underlying performance of the segment, which delivered a current accidenture combined ratio XCAD of 91.6%.

As reported by others and consistent with our comment last quarter, competition is increasing particularly in property and short-term lines. That said, the middle market commercial business and casualty oriented lines continue to experience rate increases.

Additionally, pricing in directors and officers is rebounding slowly, where I read declines in cyber insurance have moderated. Our gross and net premium return, we are negatively impacted by the non-renewal of certain program business, as discussed in prior calls. And we are also impacted by reduced writing of our excess and surplus property business. We continue to see premium growth in casualty oriented lines in North America, including excess and surplus casualty, construction, and national accounts.

And we also saw positive trends in certain specialty London market lines, including war and terrorism. Looking ahead, our diversified platform provides us with the flexibility to grow in those areas where pricing supports our return objectives.

Our insurance underwriting results were excellent, added by relatively like catastrophe losses, resulting in $410 million of underwriting income in the quarter. The current quarter accidenture XCAD combined ratio was 79.9%, a 270 business point increase from last year due to changes in mix and lower pricing in property lines. Net premiums return, we are down 10% from the same quarter last year, as some of our clients opted to retain more risk, and increasing competition lower rates, particularly in property.

We increase our session to traditional reinsurance and third-party capital, which impacted our net to gross ratio. Our ability to leverage with capabilities enables us to provide solutions to our brokers and citizens, while maintaining flexibility to manage our net risk portfolio.

Similar to insurance, casualty reinsurance is an area where we see attractive business. Opportunities remain, though competition is elevated due to a burden to insurance capacity.

Within a reinsurance business, our focus is on maintaining opposition as a leading reinsurance partner for discipline, underwriting, and by consistently delivering business expertise across market cycles.

The mortgage segment continued to provide strong stable result, delivering $220 million of underwriting income in the quarter. Our mortgage portfolio performed well, driven by resilient economy and high-quality risk-enforce. Our US MI portfolio dedicrancy rate remained flat at 2.1%. Favourable result development continued, although slower than in prior quarters. While affordability and housing supply constraints limit new mortgage origination, mortgage insurance remains a consistent contributor to earnings, as the strengths of the in-force portfolio and favorable credit characteristic continue to support steady profitability.

Investment contributed $417 million, or $1.20 of net investment income per share in the quarter. We see supported by our conservatively managed portfolio, which maintains an average credit quality of double A minus. We continue to benefit from an asset base that has grown to $49.5 billion, supported by strong cash flows. Investment accounted for using equity method, which are excluded from operating earnings performed well, adding an additional $196 million of 56 cents per share to net income, reflecting strong returns across the portfolio.

Over the last five years, we have enjoyed favorable market conditions in property and short-term lines, and consequently, we now face the early stages of a competitive market driven by an influx of capacity. This part of the cycle is to be expected. Importantly, a more competitive environment doesn't mean a lack of opportunity. It simply requires greater discipline in where and how capital is deployed.

Our playbook is built upon our enduring strengths, a diversified platform based in class cycle management, a strong brand that enhances our relationship with clients and distribution partners, as well as discipline capital management. In some, we remain well positioned to consistently deliver superior results for our shareholders. As art approaches its 25th anniversary, one thing is clear. While the company has evolved, the principal and playbook will rely upon create long-term shareholder value.

With that, I will turn the call over to Francois.

10:18

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Thank you, Nicholas, and good morning to all. Before I provide some additional color on our results, I wanted to walk you through our capital allocation and management actions this quarter. Capital management is an essential tool to help us to manage our business through the insurance cycle. The latest hard market provided arch the opportunity to generate significant excess capital that, as the market transitions, cannot be fully deployed into our business.

Our preferred option has first been to return excess capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and secondly through special dividends.

After considering the opportunities available to us to deploy capital in the business, both existing and new, we determined that share buybacks remain an accretive use of excess capital in enhancing shareholder returns at current prices.

As a result, we repurchased 12.4 million shares at an aggregate cost of $1.2 billion in the quarter. Through the first half of the year, we have repurchased approximately 94% of our net income in our own shares.

As you know, we also accessed a debt market in May, raising $2 billion in a combination of 10 year and 30 year senior notes. The proceeds from this issue once will be used to 1, redeem the $500 million of 10 year senior notes maturing later this year. 2 purchase $418 million of our 2043 and 2046 senior notes through a recently completed tender offer with the remainder for general corporate purposes.

The tender offer was designed to replace debt that no longer meets updated regulatory capital requirements with fully compliant capital instruments.

As a result of the debt raise, we expect our interest expense to be approximately $60 to $63 million for each of the next two quarters.

As of the end of the second quarter, our debt plus preferred to capital leverage ratio stands at a conservative 18.1%.

Turning back to our operating performance for the quarter, our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results with an overall ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 82.5%, up 160 basis points from the same quarter last year.

Our unwriting income included $165 million of favorable private development on a pre-tax basis in the quarter or 4.1 points on the overall combined ratio. We recognize favorable development in all three of our segments and in many of our lines of business, but mainly in short tail lines in our PNC segments and in mortgage due to strong cure activity.

Current year catastrophe losses were $201 million, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, and were a combination of losses from the Iran conflict and severe conductive storms in the U. S. The insurance segments net premiums written decline 5.1% year over year due, in part, to the non-renewal of certain program business.

The ex-cat accident year loss ratio, net of reinstatement premiums, improved by 90 basis points to 56.4% compared to the same quarter one year ago, due primarily to strong performance in our international operations.

The acquisition expense ratio for the current accident year increased by 30 basis points as the benefit we observed from the right off of deferred acquisition costs for the MCE acquired business rolled off.

Our operating expense ratio was higher this quarter due to the transition of our middle market business to ARCH systems.

As mentioned last quarter, we would expect our operating expense ratio to revert back to historical levels during the second half of the year. Turning to the reinsurance segment, net premiums written were down 10.4% from the same quarter one year ago, reflecting reduced ratings from lower rates in a higher level of retrocession purchases, primarily in the specialty and property catastrophe lines.

Overall, our ex-catastrophe accident year combined ratio of 79.9% is up from last year due to the shift in line of business mix and a more competitive rate environment for certain subsegments.

Our mortgage segment produced another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $220 million. Net premiums earned were flat from last quarter with a reduction in our USMI business, mostly offset by higher levels of earned premium in Australia.

On the investment front, we earned a combined $613 million from net investment income and income from funds accounted for using the equity method per $1.76 per share pre-tax up from the $1.57 per share we earned last quarter. We note that the returns of equity method funds contributed 340 basis points to our annualized net income return on average common equity in the quarter.

Cash flow from operations remained very strong at $1.3 billion for the quarter. Income from operating affiliates was $46 million for the quarter, slightly higher than the $40 million from the same quarter one year ago. Our effective tax rate on pre-tax operating income was 15.1%, reflecting the mix of income by tax jurisdiction.

As of July 1, our peak zone natural cap probable maximum loss for a single event at a 1 in 250 year return level on a net basis is down slightly to $1.8 billion and now stands at 8% of tangible shareholders' equity. With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

Questions and answers

16:42

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions.

17:11

Elyse GreenspanAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Our first question comes from the line of Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Elise, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the insurance segment. I was hoping to both just get a sense of the sustainability of the underlying loss ratio you saw on the quarter. Fran, so I think you pointed out strong international results for the second quarter in a row. So just trying to get a sense of the sustainability there.

And then was there any change in your loss pick assumptions within your insurance book in the quarter?

17:51

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, two things or a few points on that, Elise. First international, as you know, it's more of a short-tailed book. So it's been running very well and there's always potential volatility that we have to think about. So it's hard for us to know how that's going to play out, but the business is doing extremely well, so we're happy with that. On the North American side, I mean, what's also helped a little bit is the non-renewal of some of the programs that, you know, started out earlier this year. So as those kind of earn in, right, the premium earns in or the lack of premium, I think that'll, that has brought down the loss ratio a little bit.

So, I mean, where did they go from here? I think, I mean, at a high level, we think we're comfortable with the levels where we're at. And, you know, I think there's a good chance or there's a possibility that we, you know, we stay at levels that are around this number.

18:53

Elyse GreenspanAnalyst, Wells Fargo

And no movement in loss trends?

18:53

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

No movement in specific loss picks. I mean, it's really, I mean, absent just the normal adjustment of rate over trend that we go through each of our lines of business, but that we haven't like systematically decided to move down the loss ratio pick for one line in particular or another. So, nothing new there. And you just remember in insurance, you can actually adjust the mix of the book. So we, you know, every, most of our books today are split in what we call quartile or quintile, where some of the book is running at the lower expanse. A lower loss ratio and the other size running at a higher loss ratio. So the work of the underwriter is really to get pricing or manage a higher loss ratio out.

So we have more propensity to keep, you know, the loss ratio where it is.

19:54

Elyse GreenspanAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Thanks. And then my follow up was just on capital, you know, obviously, buyback, right, picked up in the quarter. I think you guys just mentioned right, slower growth, obviously, you know, strong earnings and capital position. How are you guys thinking about the level of buybacks from here, you know, recognizing, obviously, you know, in the midst of when season, would you expect to slow down this quarter and then pick back up? Or just how are you thinking about the level of capital return going forward?

20:26

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes, we don't certainly don't have targets or plans to buy back a certain number or dollars of shares. We certainly thought that in the second quarter, the price of the stock was very attractive to us. So that's why we were able to certainly buyback more than we had done in the past. Does that stay at this level? I don't know. And the current prices, we like the stock still, we think it's very attractive.

And, you know, we have capacity to buy back more. So we'll see if that plays out. Yeah, wind season is always something that's a little bit in the back of our minds that we have to think about. But, you know, going forward, I think we're in a position where, again, the growth is going to be harder to come, we think.

And, you know, share buybacks will remain part of the arsenal that we have to manage our returns.

21:24

Elyse GreenspanAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Thank you.

21:26

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

You're welcome.

21:29

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo sings on with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

21:38

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Hi, good morning. Retention and the insurance businesses stick down over the past couple of years. Is your approach to keep pretension the same or could you potentially increase that and internalize more of the unrunning income? I'm just not sure seating is economically more attractive. Like it is in reinsurance today.

21:58

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

So can you repeat the question?

22:00

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Are you asking about retention of in the insurance segment?

22:05

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Your retention has been going down, right? You've been essentially heating less, just net over growth, right? And I think in the soft market, yep, yep. Yeah, so again, it's a function of really the market we are in. So I think in reinsurance, we've seen it a little more because I think we, if I remember, we placed a little bit more on the shorter lines. Because as the rate was going down and we also increase our capacity. As we increase our limits, we buy more insurance. So there's many factors that influence the net to growth.

But the market is certainly a factor we look at as well. I said it, we're here to solve the problem for insured and for our bulkier. So the reinsurance is a good tool to stay in front of the clients and ultimately figure out what we want to keep after it.

23:17

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Understood. In insurance, the insurance segment, what's your stance on net to growth there? I, you know, the question I asked you earlier was more on the, you know, it works on both the same way, but also more on the insurance side.

23:35

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

I'm sorry, the line is really bad. So on the insurance, I probably gave you the answer. On the reinsurance, I think we are much more active, I would say, on the buying, especially because the property cat business specifically we think is quite stressed. So we have to manage, you know, the net portfolio and the tool we've used is, you know, relying on the capacity out there that has a lower cost of capital to help again solve the problem for the clients or distribution partners.

24:20

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cohen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

24:28

Andrew KligermanAnalyst, TD Cowen

Good morning. Nicholas, I was intrigued by your early comments, prepared remarks where you talked about an influx of capacity and that we're in the quote unquote early stages of a soft market. So I'm hoping you can elaborate a little bit separately on property and and casualty. Do you think property rates could come down materially more and what potential degree? And you mentioned that casualty was decelerating.

Do you think we could start to see that turn negative?

25:10

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

Yes. First, I think we, you know, I truly believe that the market that we are trading in is a favorable market. So there are business that our teams can on the insurance side and into a large action from the reinsurance side, there's new business that we can write. So we, we were made to trade in this type of environment. So specific to, to, to property.

Yeah, it's a big heavy wind, you know, okay, you know, rates have been, you know, coming down. And, and there, I think we, we, we tried, we tried quite carefully and you saw both on the insurance and reinsurance on that premium going down. We are much more optimistic on the, on the casualty side. I think the, there's more competition there.

But the market is remaining disciplined, especially on the insurance side. We haven't seen any, you know, we've seen management of limit, which is a critical aspect of what we track. The, the, the, our competition stays very disciplined.

Yeah, and I'd say to one, I mean, property, I mean, the cat activity will have an impact.

26:28

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

That's, it's still early in the season. So far it's been quiet, but things could change depending on, you know, as we look into 2027.

26:37

Andrew KligermanAnalyst, TD Cowen

Got it. So, so in terms of, of casualty and maybe it's just like kind of a two part, when you, when you say you're disciplined, are you keeping up with loss costs on your rate? And then the prior year development was, was 1.4 favorable in insurance, 5.3 favorable in reinsurance. And I know in the prepared remarks, you said it was mainly short tail stuff, but could you give a little color on the amount and geography by accident year in, in casualty or, or maybe it was just insignificant. But I'd be curious around how casualty played out in, in prior year development.

27:27

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

In casualty at a high level is, is kind of neutral. I mean, so, you know, then there's some, you know, by year by subline, there's some, some, some up, some down. In total, it's about neutral.

So, yes, the short answer is like most of the favorable is in the short tail lines in the last two to three accidents slash underwriting years.

27:53

Your next question comes from the line of KV Montezeri with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

28:01

Cave MontazeriAnalyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you. Just want to follow up on the $1.2 billion of shared purchases you did this quarter. I think it's the first time in the world we went over 100% of the offering income. And I know, you know, part of that's dictated by the stock price, but there's still a pretty meaningful gap between where you're trading and. Kind of like the intrinsic value based on three or four book value. So at current levels, like how I'm trying to get a sense of how long you can sustain shared purchases above 100% of your operating earnings to generate. So you did mention you've built up a decent amount of excess capital during the hard market.

This was a bit more debt you can issue if you wanted to. Just wondering kind of like can you give us a stance of like could you sustain above 100% payout throughout the cycle.

Not knowing how long self cycle will last, but like is it like a multi year try that you have.

29:06

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

You're asking me if we have the first of all, which we don't, but let's just say that we've got again, we are very confident in our ability to generate strong earnings. Through all phases of the start at the cycle. We got three kind of pillars to our operations, three likes of the stool. They're all performing well. So we believe strongly that we have an ability to generate earnings for the, you know, for the.

Maybe not forever right, but you know, for the foreseeable future at a minimum. So you're asking me, are we able to return if we're not growing? Can we return all those earnings in back and in back to the shareholders? The answer is yes, we could. Could we do something else again? That's like, I don't want to speculate what we're going to do in a year or two years because there are other things that we where we need the capital before what we deployed differently. But again, the quarter, second quarter was again, hopefully a good demonstration that we are active and like the stock and think it's, you know, it's an action. An interactive way to.

We did a return to shareholders and we'll keep doing the same as long as, you know, unless things change material.

30:23

Cave MontazeriAnalyst, Deutsche Bank

I guess link to this to PML went down a bit this quarter. I guess not as much as your premium on that basis. Can you give us some color? What kind of business you are sending to the retro market and should you expect your PML to kind of go down over time as the cycle.

And I guess that could be an additional source of capital. They'll be released that you could use for shared purchases or whatever else you want to do with it.

30:57

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

So the PML that you look at, I think, is Florida. Try country. So it's one of the 50 zones that we monitor. So I mean, Florida business is a big zone. So it's a big zone for most of the. Insurance in the field. So that is historically as at the highest margin. So that's why I think, you know, the red reduction pretty much across the board, you know, on the property. So we would expect that the PML could reduce, but think of Florida as the highest margin business, you know, in our property.

But the percentage percentage of children's equity, you know, we were at 8%. You know, we've been in the soft market, the last off market. We were at 4%. So we're a different animal. We're much more relevant. We're much more, I mean, bigger partner to many of our clients and brokers.

So yes, could our PML come down? Absolutely. Does it go down to the same level back that we said we don't know.

32:13

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

32:23

Rob CoxAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, thanks. The first question was just on casualty reinsurance. I think you all had taken a somewhat differentiated view on casualty re versus peers in 2025 by leaning in with some of these selective sedents.

32:41

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

As we think about the deceleration in casualty reinsurance growth year to date, is that reflective of those outperforming sedents choosing to retain more risk? Or has arch changed its view on casualty re returns?

No, I don't think we've changed our view. I think I mentioned in my prepared remark, we stay, you know, I think it's an attractive line of business. We like the fundamental of the underlying business in the specialty casualty area. The issue it's not new is, you know, too much capacity, reinsurance capacity chasing too little business. And the way we see it is hit or miss on the terms and conditions. So there's certain terms and conditions that works.

And for others, we think that sometimes it's mostly could share the contract that the same commission is too high. So I think we're still looking for the right opportunity to add, you know, reinsurance casualty to our books in the right lines of business and with the right sitting companies.

33:56

Rob CoxAnalyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, thank you.

33:58

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

And I just want to follow up on, you know, the Middle East, some losses this quarter from a cap perspective. It also seems like there's some incremental opportunities to write new business. Could you just give us some sense of what the strategy is to write new business and, you know, how you go about managing that and determining, you know, what's a good risk?

Yeah, so obviously, you know, following the losses in the iron regions that we're all aware about, you know, prices that are adjusted. And for us, we, you know, prices at some point were multiple of what they were before the before the conflict. And so we decided to deploy a bit of capacity and stay with our insured, you know, some of our insured.

You know, there's a, you know, we made you want a business. Now they suddenly figure out that, you know, the war, which was excluded from their property policy, they'd like to buy, you know, some coverage. And so selectively, we've deployed more capacity in the region, you know, making sure that we avoid concentration. So we have a careful approach to continuing to service our discussion partner and our clients in the region.

35:30

Your next question comes from the line of David Motomaidin with Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

35:40

David MotemadenAnalyst, Evercore ISI

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I'm wondering if you guys could just quantify the Iran losses this quarter that impacted the insurance segment. And then maybe just elaborate on how you're thinking about them and the catload with an insurance going forward. I'm interested also in any sort of IBM R versus actual loss detail you could share.

36:06

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Well, I mean, the majority of the insurance cat losses come from Iran. Yeah. Catload going forward. I mean, we quoted the 68% kind of, you know, for the, you know, on an annual basis for, you know, the group that hasn't changed. I think the losses that we, you know, the run conflict is more is actual refineries, it's actual claims. So case reserves have been set up. It's not a hypothetical IBM R, you know, we'll put it up in case something happens. And those are, you know, large refineries, et cetera, that, you know, people are well aware of. They've been kind of hit and they, you know, there's damage associated with them. There's always questions around business eruption and, you know, so we don't know the magnitude of the magnitude of the outcome, but, you know, the claims are real and tangible.

So that's how we think about it.

36:59

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

I mean, it's, again, we, we, Nicholas mentioned it, we are out of London at Lloyd's. We are leaders in the, you know, political violence, terrorism kind of market. And that's, you know, that the losses when they, they happen, you know, we expect them. And, you know, we think the pricing is, it supports it. And that's why we've been in that space in a more meaningful way the last few years.

And we're, you know, we're, we're still in it.

37:31

David MotemadenAnalyst, Evercore ISI

Got it. Thanks. No, that makes sense. And then maybe just on, on the reinsurance segment. The accident, your loss ratio, ex cat.

You know, deteriorated 370 basis points here on year. Sounds like that's, you know, well within expectations that you guys have had just given the mix shift.

Away from, from property. And then also just the pricing pressure there on that line. I mean, is, is that the same sort of deterioration we should expect. As we head throughout the rest of this year or. Yeah, sort of wondering how you guys are thinking about that.

38:11

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah. Yeah, as we said before, David, I think we, I mean, our view is we look at trailing 12 months as first of all like that to our kind of. The lens we like to put at our other results specifically on reinsurance because there's going to be more. A little bit more volatility in the ex cat loss ratio, no matter, you know, no matter what. So that's the first thing we would say to your right. I think the mix, you know, has changed a little bit less short tail, which.

You know, is reflected in that increase in the loss ratio. Three, yeah, the market, you know, a little bit more kind of competition about the rates are down a little bit more that hasn't fully earned in. So that may earn in kind of overtime. So you put it all together like the last kind of quarter. If you focus on the quarter, we'd say it's probably a little bit higher than we would, you know, that would think the run rate is or kind of reflecting all these moving parts. But, you know, we're not surprised by it or think it's a get to your point. That's very kind of very much within our expectations. But, you know, we'll see how things play out going forward.

39:24

Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benji G with Wolf Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

39:33

Tracy BenguiguiAnalyst, Wolfe Research

You quantified that prop cat rate decreases. You saw it mid year renewals and share your view of read adequacy. Looking at one broker survey looks like pricing is back to 2021 levels, but a competitor had said it looked more like 2023. So where in the spectrum is your view?

39:52

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

Yeah, so I think, you know, I concur with what other people have said. On other calls, I think the red reductions are in the mid teens, you know, that's what we saw. And I think in terms of red index, I think we are not back to, you know, the pre hurricane heen. I think we are 2022. I think we think the market trade above that. So are we in 2023? Maybe.

You know, I think it really depends on the region. So I think that's what you, you know, we, as I said earlier, we have 50 zones. So some zones are green still, you know, above and provide adequate return. And some zones are now red and some zones are in orange. I think that's why we actively manage a portfolio. But in terms of index, I think our view is that we're still above, you know, the prior hurricane in red index.

41:00

Tracy BenguiguiAnalyst, Wolfe Research

Great. Can you touch on your appetite to re-insure MGA's? I realize you're the lead re-insure and at least one of the front-end companies. What structural safeguards do you have in place?

41:14

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

So our involvement on the, on the reinsurance regarding MGA's has been mostly on the, on the property, on the property side. So short term, I think we, we've been a significant player, you know, supported by the pricing on the primary side. It was one way our, you know, reinsurance team where I bought to access business that otherwise they, they, they, they, they could not access.

So we, we, we, again, the fact that it's short term, maybe you'll limit some of the risk we see with working with MGA, which is, you know, down, down the road, you know, who, who's going to pay the claims? And, you know, who's going to be there if the MGA is no longer there. So I think as far as a reinsurer, you, you don't have as much of an issue.

The issue is more, I think, with the, with the insure, you know, the, the insurance company under the, so it's insured, I'm sorry. The insured, you know, or the worker, you know, if you do it with an MGA, especially as, as it relates to long-tail lines, you know, five years, six years from now, you know, you don't have visibility. If the MGA no longer exists, who is going to pay your claims? And will, will the reinsurance capacity still be there? So I think it's more of an issue on the insure broker, you know, ENO than it is for the, for the reinsurer in my mind.

42:47

Your next question comes from the line of your round, Kenar, with Mizzuho. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

42:55

Yaron KinarAnalyst, Mizuho

Thank you. Good morning. Two questions on the reinsurance segment and opportunities there. First, sounds like you are still seeing a attractive environment for casualty there. That does sound a little bit different than what we've heard from other executives this earnings season. So I understand from your earlier comments that it is a lot about partnering with the right underlying risk, but maybe you can offer some additional color as to what really makes this a more attractive opportunity for you when you look at this market.

43:32

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

I mean, what makes the opportunity interesting to us is the underlying insurance casualty, which we think in certain specialty areas, is a profitable, is profitable. So I think we are trying to, you know, through reinsurance access, those companies that we think are good on the rider and do business in those specialty casualty areas.

44:05

Yaron KinarAnalyst, Mizuho

Okay. And then on the property side, maybe following up on Tracy's question, I think we heard from another broker yesterday talking about how Southern Florida is back to 2017 property levels. I think one of your reinsurance competitors talked about lighting up the load a bit in Florida.

44:31

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

So curious as to what you're seeing in Florida, I realize there are a lot of zones there, but maybe you can go to a little more colored detail on Southern Florida versus Northern Florida versus East.

I mean, what I can tell you, what we saw at 6-1 is the reductions of the rates were across the board. Historically, they were higher reduction at the top end of the program and lower reduction in the frequency layer. This time around, I think the appetite has been more across the board.

And, you know, the tricontia area is a big zone. So, you know, I would say usually it attracts the higher pricing. I think if you are in the Galveston area or all of the other area, you know, the pricing would be less because it's not the big zone of everyone. So, and the market is efficient, you know, the pricing, you know, reflect more the abundance of capacity and the new entrant capacity that is chasing the business. But the differentiation in the pricing between zone, I think, is efficient, you know, people are using models. I think we don't see a huge right flag there.

46:02

Your next question comes from the line of Roland Mayer with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open, please go ahead.

46:11

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. Do you expect continued benefits from higher investment yields to add pressures to catch into competition over time? I guess do you guys embed some use investment yields in your rate adequate decision on long tail lines?

We don't. You know, we are very clear on that.

46:30

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

You know, we only, we ask a casualty on the rider to write for an underwriting profit. And we credit them with the risk-free rate. So, we require an underwriting profit. So, I think that's very clear for us.

46:54

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. And then as my follow-up, you mentioned buyback as part of the personal. Are we at all close to the point where special dividends make more sense in buybacks? In 2024, I think that was when you were above 1.8 times book, but also would soon forward. Are we expected to hire when you made that decision?

47:12

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah. I mean, back in 24, we were at two times book. So it was very much a, you know, to us was very clear that buybacks did not make sense. And dividend, the special was the, was the answer. Right now we're trading in the kind of 1516 range, 145, whatever. So I think it's more still makes sense to do buybacks.

But, you know, so, you know, our preference, obviously, it's one or the other. And right now we're in the buybacks range. And we'll see how that, again, things play out, but that's kind of how we think about it. Like dividends, as long as we, again, and again, I said it earlier, I think we have were positive and, you know, or visibility in terms of forward looking earnings is very positive. So to us that supports kind of value creation and kind of strong returns for the next three years. And that's a big part of how we look at, you know, the economics of the share buybacks.

48:17

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

48:24

Brian MeredithAnalyst, UBS

Yes. Thanks. Nicholas, first question. I just want to focus a little bit on mid-corp. If we think about that business, X the program business that I know you're intentionally running off. How is the growth been, how has retention been? Has it been more challenging maybe to keep the business you thought given the competitive market? And then how do we think about it going forward?

48:44

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

I think we've been positively surprised. I think that our goal was really to, you know, the first goal was to move the business over to ours. So we did this a year ago. And, you know, the second goal was to move the, you know, the pretty significant systems from our youngs to us. So that created some, some disruptions from the writers. I mean, you know, it made their life much more difficult. But I think we, the value of the brand and the relationship, you know, worked out for us. I think we are in a good place. I think looking ahead, I think we had now, you know, the underwriting team and the police emission system on our, using our paper towels.

And so we actively moving to the phase where we can provide them a better tool, better analytics, triage, improve the claims.

49:43

Brian MeredithAnalyst, UBS

You know, so I think there's a lot of things we want to do that will, you know, lead to more growth in the future.

And just do you see better call it market dynamics in that segment where mid-corp is in some of the other areas?

49:58

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

Yeah, I think it's muted compared to, to the, to the large property and ENS. I think we still see overall on the package rate increase that are positive in the mid-single digits. And I think the property itself is, is flattish, you know, used to be 5% up. But we, we don't see the, the double digit decrease that we, we see elsewhere on the existential surplus property or, or large account property.

50:33

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Hartwell with autonomous research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

50:42

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Good. Good morning, gentlemen. Quick question. First of all, just on the mid-year renewal conversations you were having with your, with your seating clients over the last few months. I guess what I'm trying to understand and some of them also looking forward into, into January. I'm not sure whether there's a lot of focus on, on price. I'm trying to sort of understand what the, what the, the clients are really sort of pushing for in terms of great versus risk transfer from, from their, from their reinsurance protections.

51:17

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

Or I wonder if you could comment on that, please. Yeah. I think so the primary message that we got from our brokers incident is price. So I now think we have a little bit of a slippage in, you know, with terms and conditions or, you know, clients, you know, because they save a significant of money looking to see if they could, could add the margin by an underlying layer. So we're starting to see this, but it's, it's really at the margin right now. So it's mostly price.

Okay.

51:57

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Thank you. I guess if, if, if I may, can I ask on, just on the mortgage business and it's so far hasn't had any, any attention today. So I'll give it a, give it a go.

52:07

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

There's a decent bit of growth. So the quarter and quarter in terms of new insurance with them. It's wanting to can help just provide some color on what's driving that. And, and I guess a part B to the question also is, and the profitability has obviously been very, very strong for the last, the last few years, but growth has not really been apparent.

And I guess as we look forward and as that back book matures, and what, how should I see the trade off between, I guess, margin versus, versus growth opportunity? How should that develop as we look forward?

So on the mortgage side, I think this, this quarter, I think we, we signed up a new client in Australia. And so that benefited that new premium influx helped our growth. And the second factor was, I think we, we reduced some amount of quarter share insurance that we, that we bought. So that, that really helped the net as well. I think those are the two elements, I believe.

And in terms of the profitability effect, I think it's steady as you go, my view is that, you know, the, the, this is an interesting market where, you know, we talked about, rate decrease of 15%, you know, in property tax or, you know, in mortgage is 1%. And the market reacts. I think it's a people, people, you know, people react very quickly to maintain their market share. And I think the, the, the, the, the six, the six actors, you know, have been, you know, maintaining the pricing where it is. So I think it's the valuation there are much more.

54:00

Your next question comes from the line of Mayor Shields with KBW. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

54:08

Meyer ShieldsAnalyst, KBW

Great. I want to talk about casualty loss trends, but from a different perspective, I know, obviously, we've, you know, we're well into social inflation as an external issue. But I'm wondering whether you can talk about how arch and maybe the company that you're re-insuring on that. Are they getting any better at pushing back to the extent that what I would call net loss trends aren't as bad.

54:36

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

What do you mean net loss trend? So sort of call it. Yeah, the trial attorneys are pushing for and then offset by more successful defense on the part of the insurance industry.

Yes, sir. Well, you know, I think I'd love to see more.

55:01

Meyer ShieldsAnalyst, KBW

We'd love to see more of that. I think they are. They are a bit more pushback, but in the numbers to we don't see, you know, yet. We don't see the impact of talk reform or different behavior by, you know, the defense attorneys and so on. So I think it's not reflected in our last trial because we just don't see it in the numbers yet.

Okay. No, understood.

55:37

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

And then I apologize if this has been covered before. But I remember a couple of years ago, there was a little bit more caution on mid-year renewals because they were very negative forecasts for hurricane activity. And I'm wondering if the forecasts are benign. When there are below average forecasts, does that increase your appetite for property cat, obviously, given the rates that are available?

It's a factor. I think we have, you know, like most companies, we have a meteorologist on staff that give us the outlook. But we look at the coalition in the past. There are some positive coalition, but it's one of the factors we take into account. But that's not the main factor.

56:31

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zeremski with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

56:39

Mike ZaremskiAnalyst, BMO

Thanks. Good morning. On the mortgage segment where the growth popped and you called out non-renewing some of the Bellomede and less reinsurance. Can you quantify how we should, what that impact was and if we should be running that for the next three quarters as well?

Yeah.

57:04

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

I mean, I think the current quarter is a good starting point. Right. Some of these agreements were, you know, effectively on the Bellomede side. I mean, they're canceled. So the benefit we got because it's like in monthly pay or monthly kind of premium. So benefit, we're getting both on the Bellomede and the quarter shares. It's, again, it will continue on. So I don't, I would not, I mean, I would expect like at this point kind of relatively flat kind of premium on the USMI side. Australia to Nicholas's point, you know, it's a new relatively large new client. So, which just started in Q1. So as we move throughout the rest of the year, we should see more and more of that business coming in.

So that when you're doing the year over year kind of growth, I think I would expect to see a bit more growth out of our international book.

58:03

Mike ZaremskiAnalyst, BMO

Got it. It's helpful. And just switching gears to the war in the Middle East. I'm not sure if you did quantify the exact cat loss to David's question, but just, you know, if you don't want it, that's fine. But to the extent the war indoors or ebbs and flows should be, you know, any color on, you know, what loss industry estimate are using or is this very kind of video to you all? Because it's, you know, specific to certain, you know, areas that were hit or any color you could add to how we should think about it to the extent the war indoors.

58:46

Francois MorinChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Thanks. Yeah, I think there could be more. I mean, we obviously, what we saw in Q2 was a direct reflection of certain risks that we ensure that we're hit. If that kind of, you know, if we have the same in Q3 or Q4 as the war persists, yes, well, we could have more of that. But it's a right. It's more case by case. It's more property by property specific and not like an ongoing thing like COVID might have been where it was kind of more an aggregate view of the exposure. So this is more kind of case by case specific and, you know, we'll react to it. If we hear like the news that, again, there's some, some, some damage.

I think there are estimates for the industry loss since the last earnings call has no chance because I think the, the event that happened just before the earnings calls. I think we are still, I think the industry in general is still around $3 billion for the, for the Middle East, the war losses.

59:55

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

1:00:02

Brian MeredithAnalyst, UBS

Hey, thanks for letting me get one more question. So, look, I was just curious. You're talking a lot about sharp eye back capital, but the one thing that I'm curious about is, is M&A and kind of how you're thinking about M&A in this environment right now. I mean, typically we've seen as the market rolls into a soft market, M&A actually picks up.

Maybe give us your perspective and are you seeing any of that in the marketplace? Yeah, so we don't, we don't think of M&A as an alternative to organic growth or buying back shares or returning capital to shareholders.

1:00:39

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

We think M&A has more of a strategic way of, you know, building versus buy. You know, if we, we want to be in a line of business and we don't have the scale, we, M&A could be a path to, to get us there faster and think of the audience transaction is, you know, we want it to be in the middle market. I think that property led, you know, tried to get there and ultimately this opportunity came and we paid a decent amount of money to have a franchise to be able to operate in that business.

So we're looking at M&A to for what it add to what we have more so than to gain market share and then. And my honest view on M&A in this market is it's expensive, the price is expensive and maybe the price comes down, but as the market gets more competitive, maybe the balance sheet gets weaker. So I think you, you know, there's, you have to think the timing of M&A is tricky and a successful M&A, it's difficult, you know, historically a lot of the M&A has created the issues for companies. So we, we are very careful in the way we approach it.

Thank you.

1:02:04

I'm not showing any further questions.

1:02:04

Nicolas PapadopouloPresident and Chief Underwriting Officer

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicklaus, pop it up below for closing remarks. Yeah, thank you for the time today and another good quarter for us and we're looking forward to talking to you next quarter.

1:02:28

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

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