Popular (BPOP) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are our President and CEO, Jorge Garcia, and our CFO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our third quarter results and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team, including our CRO, Luis Sosa, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding Popular, such as projections of revenue, earnings, credit quality, expenses, taxes, and capital, as well as statements regarding Popular's plans and objectives. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are discussed in today's earnings release and our SEC filings.

You may find today's earnings release and our SEC filings on our website at Popular. com. I will now turn the call over to Jorge.

Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide four to discuss the highlights of another solid quarter. We reported net income of $266 million and earnings per share of $4.21, a decrease of $0.14 per share from the second quarter. Results reflected higher net interest income and stable underlying credit trends, partially offset by higher operating expenses and lower non-interest income.

Compared with the third quarter of last year, earnings per share increased by 34%. Arotze was 15.8%, compared with 17% in the second quarter, and 13.1% in the third quarter of 2025. Loans held in portfolio increased by $293 million, driven by growth in commercial and mortgage lending. total deposits decreased by 1.5 billion, primarily reflecting lower Puerto Rico public sector balances. Excluding public funds, customer balances decreased by approximately 289 million.

The delta was consistent with our expectations and third quarter seasonality. Credit performance remained stable. Net charge-offs declined from the second quarter, while non-performing loans increase, primarily reflecting a commercial relationship at BPPR that was placed on non-accrual. We continued to return capital to shareholders, repurchasing $179 million of common stock in the quarter. We also increased the quarterly dividend to $0.90 per share, beginning with the payment on October 1st. While some indicators have moderated from the strong levels experienced over the last several years, economic conditions and business activity in Puerto Rico remain stable.

The labor market continued to be healthy. Total employment increased to approximately 1.26 million in September, its highest level of the year, as the labor force grew by roughly 24,000 people in the quarter, while employment grew by 18,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased modestly to 6.2%, largely reflecting a higher participation rate rather than job losses. Job growth was strongest in leisure and hospitality, with most other sectors showing modest growth or broadly stable conditions.

Consumer spending was solid during the quarter, as evidenced by popularis, customers, debit, and credit card sales volume, which increased by approximately 7% year over year.

Tourism was another source of meaningful support for the Puerto Rico economy. Through August, hotel occupancy improved by more than four percentage points to approximately 79%. Cruise passenger arrivals increased by 27% through September.

Air passenger traffic has moderated from record levels but remained healthy, declining approximately 3% year over year. construction activity is supported by public and private investment including the ongoing deployment of federal disaster recovery funds and a growing pipeline of private sector projects we continue to see demand in the energy sector as well as in warehousing and logistics overall Puerto Rico's economic environment is stable supported by healthy employment tourism infrastructure investment and private sector development at the same time we are monitoring affordability pressures that are being driven by inflation and the higher cost of fuel and energy we continue to focus on the three objectives we have shared previously being the number one bank for our customers being simple and efficient and being a top performing bank we are on the right path and we will continue to execute with discipline.

Being the number one bank for our customers means building stronger relationships and continuing to strengthen our deposit franchise, one of our most important competitive advantages. That starts with giving customers the flexibility to bank through the channel that best meets their needs, while continuing to enhance our products and maintain our high service standards. On the retail side, this quarter we launched a simpler deposit product that encourages behavior such as direct deposits to eliminate banking fees that will help us build deeper relationships over time. We also launched an account for college students to establish relationships earlier in their financial journey. These efforts advance our segment-led strategy, which leverages specialized offerings to unlock opportunities and deepening customer relationships our successful healthcare professional program is one example of this segment led approach the program supports deposit retention and has also generated more than 90 million in loans in new loans this year on the commercial side we completed the final wave of customer onboarding to our new cash management platform concluding a multi year effort.

The platform provides greater flexibility and mobile access and enhanced money movement capabilities for our commercial clients. This strengthens our value proposition for business clients and further differentiates our commercial banking franchise in Puerto Rico and gives us a platform to continue to enhance functionality. Together, these initiatives demonstrate that our strategy is translating into tangible results. I look forward to building on this momentum with our teams as we continue advancing our objectives.

I will now turn the call over to Lidia for more details on our financial and credit performance.

Thank you, Jorge, and good morning, everyone. As Jorge said, we deliver another solid quarter. Our focus on generating sustainable returns remains evident this quarter with broad sea of 15.8% compared with 17% in the second quarter. Please turn to slide number seven.

Net interest income increased by $6 million to $699 million, driven by higher income from investment securities and commercial loans. On a gap basis, net interest margin declined by three basis points to 3.63%, And on a tax-of-equivalent basis, NIMB was 4.16%, one basis point lower than last quarter. Ending loan balances increased by $293 million driven by commercial and mortgage loans. We now expect full-year loan growth for 2026 of approximately 2%, primarily reflecting lower auto and lease activity and more moderate commercial growth. In our investment portfolio, we have maintained our strategy of reinvesting proceeds from U. S. Treasury note maturities into two- and three-year notes. During the quarter, we invested approximately $1.4 billion with an average duration of 2.7 years and average yield of approximately 4.3 percent.

represented a pickup of approximately 206 basis points on the notes that matured during the quarter. Ending deposits were 68.7 billion, down 1.5 billion from the second quarter. Puerto Rico public deposit decreased by 1.2 billion to 21.5 billion. On average basis, total deposit increased by 502 million. Excluding Puerto Rico public deposit, average customer deposits decreased by 619 million. Customer balances were consistent with historical patterns and continue to reflect the strength of our deposit franchise. We continue to expect Puerto Rico public deposits to remain between 20 billion and 22 billion for the rest of the year. Total deposit costs increased by seven basis point to 1.64 percent, formally reflecting higher rates on market-linked Puerto Rico public deposits that increased by 11 basis points.

Excluding these balances, deposit costs increased by 3 basis points to 1.13 percent, including an increase of 2 basis points in private sector deposit cost at BVPR and a one basis point increase at Popular Bank.

For the year, we expect net interest income to increase by approximately 8.5%. Please turn to slide number 8. Net interest income decreased by $5 million to $176 million but remained above our guidance range. The quarter included a $5 million benefit associated with a commercial loan refinancing.

Compared with the third quarter of 2025, non-interest income increased by 3%, reflecting growth in debit and credit card fees of 10% and 8% respectively, and a 60% increase in brokerage and asset management fees. These results demonstrate the benefit of a broad product offering. We expect fourth quarter non-interest income of approximately $170 million. Please start to slide number 9. Operating expenses increased by $21 million to $506 million. The increase was primarily related to higher personnel costs, including annual salary adjustments, higher profit sharing expenses, and increased performance based compensation linked to the corporation's financial results.

Based on current trends, we now expect full year operational expenses to increase by approximately 2%, including the maximum profit sharing contribution.

Our effective tax rate was 14 during the quarter driven by higher taxes and income For the full year we expect an effective tax rate of 14 Turning to credit overall credit quality was stable during the third quarter Consumer performance remained favorable, with net charge-off continuing at a historical low level despite a seasonal increase in auto losses. Mortgage performance also remained strong, with historically low delinquencies and net recoveries. Commercial credit metrics were influenced by developments involving two unrelated commercial and industrial relationships.

We placed a $74 million relationship on nonaccrual status and recorded a $34 million partial charge-off on a credit that entered non-performing status in the second quarter. The two credits are in different industries and do not share a common risk factor. In each case, the deterioration was driven primarily by borrower-specific issues. Please turn to slide number 10. Total non-performing assets decreased by $37 million, reflecting the sale of the $84 million non-performing loan held for sale, while total NPLs increased by $52 million to $466 million.

The NPL ratio increased to 1.16% from 1.04% in the prior quarter. Excluding consumer loans, NPL inflows decreased by $56 million from the second quarter. Turning to slide number 11, net charge-off was 73 million or annualized 73 basis points compared with 104 million or 1.05% in the prior quarter. Given our year-to-date commercial charge-off and NPL inflows this quarter, we now expect net charge-off to be in the range of 80 to 90 basis points for the full year. While we will provide formal 2027 guidance when we report fourth quarter results in January, looking ahead to 2027, our initial expectation is that net charge-off will be in the range of roughly 60 to 75 basis points.

Overall, underlying coding metrics were stable and reserve coverage remains strong. We remain vigilant and continue to take a disciplined approach to managing risk. Turning now to capital, please turn to slide number 12. Tangible book value per share decreased by $1.64 to $86.30, primarily reflecting lower market values on available for sale investment securities. The tangible common equity ratio was 7.05%, down 13 basis points from the second quarter.

We remain comfortable with both the absolute level of TCE and the wealth sensitivity of the securities portfolio to changes in interest rates.

Our capital actions will continue to balance the need to support growth, maintain capital strength, and return excess capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we return $236 million to shareholders, including $179 million through common stock repurchases. We also increased our quarterly common stock dividend by 20%. In the fourth quarter, we expect to repurchase between $150 and $200 million of common stock. Based on current conditions, we expect quarterly repurchases to remain within a similar range during 2027. And finally, we continue to target a 14% to 17% annual ROTC.

With that, I will turn the call back to Jorge for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, Lidio. During my first two months as CEO, I have been visiting branches, regional offices, and customers across our markets. I have experienced firsthand the trust our customers place in us and their deep connections with our teams. I also continue to hear from customers that they are optimistic about Puerto Rico's long-term opportunities and how vital it is that we play a role in that outcome. Staying connected also extends to the communities we serve. Two weeks ago, as we celebrated our 133rd anniversary, I joined hundreds of colleagues who volunteered at food banks, youth centers, and other nonprofits as part of our Embracing Our Community's Day of Service. experiences reaffirmed what I already knew what makes Popular special is our people our pride and commitment are the foundation of our sustainable success I am fortunate to step into this role with a strong capital position a solid franchise a talented team and real momentum our responsibility is to carry that forward and continue creating long-term value for our customers shareholders, colleagues, and our communities.

I am grateful to my colleagues for their commitment and the results they deliver every day. We intend to be active participants in shaping what lies ahead and not simply react to it.

With that, we're now ready to take your questions.

Good morning, this is Luis. I would say that our net charter guidance for the fourth quarter mainly reflects our potential scenarios, including the CNIMPOs that we have disclosed. I think if I can add, I mean, what is important is, I mean, we see the core portfolios continue to behave very well. We said in the prepared remarks, both consumer and mortgage portfolio exhibited a strong performance in the third quarter, and as our expectation went to the fourth quarter, the guidance that we provided reflects some of the cases that we're working on.

Oh, John, I mean, the rates continue to not be attractive to us. I mean, as we've said, this is really a discretionary transaction. We still have plenty of room to continue our repurchase activity. This is something that makes things better for our capital stack and optimizes it. and we'll be strategic and take advantage if we see an opportunity. But right now, we're not just going to force a transaction that doesn't make sense.

Yeah, slightly above $43 billion. And one thing important there, we did see a pickup in spend in the third quarter from the FEMA funds that are managed through the local core three group. That basically a year today, we're running just slightly below the entire year. At the end of the third quarter, we're slightly below the total of last year, almost 40% higher than at the same time last year. So we're glad to see a little bit of that pickup.

Yes, we can.

Good morning, Terry, and thank you for picking up coverage. Welcome to the call.

Yeah, so a couple of things. I mean, certainly it is something that we hear from our customers. They want simpler products, lower fees. So the idea is to launch a product that gives them the opportunity to establish relationships and deepening that relationship that go along with the primacy, customer primacy that we're targeting. The other thing of launching the project, it just continues to be part of our strategy to create segment-led strategies. We believe that there's still great opportunity in Puerto Rico for us to be able to deepen and provide more value and enhance functionality to certain segments, both in the retail as well as in the commercial. So, you know, that's a big driver. In terms of the fee, what we did is we did reclassify over a million accounts into these new products to be able to give existing clients the benefit and not essentially put the onus on them on having to change accounts.

That resulted, I think, with a reduction in the quarter of a $2 million decrease in fee income. So on an annualized basis, you know, probably somewhere between $8 and $10 million. course you know we expect to be able to gain traction and increase our deposits to offset some of that and you know it's it's embedded in the guide for the fourth quarter a hundred and seventy million target for fees for the fourth quarter right thank you and then maybe as a follow-up how could hire for longer rate environment impact loan demand and then on that that same theme are there particular industries within your commercial portfolio that are more sensitive to higher rates that you're monitoring today?

So we in the past, and when we look at our models and stress tests, we don't see a lot of stress related to one or two moves in the rate, and certainly not where the rates are at today. In terms of where we are at, and hire for longer will help us continue to take benefits of our the tailwind of the repricing of our investment portfolio we certainly look forward to stability you know if we can you know the the the rhythm of change and the movement of particularly the short end of the curve creates some noise given the exposure we have and the repricing of our public funds But overall, higher for longer, it's favorable for us.

We get to take a higher benefit on tax advantages of some of the investments. and we have not found particularly these levels where there's significant stress to our borrowers from those rates. Demand in Puerto Rico continues to be strong. A lot of the transactions are not going to be rate sensitive. We do see some more rate sensitivity in the U. S. at times, but frankly, right now, the pipelines around, particularly around commercial projects, I'm sorry, construction projects in the U. S. continues to be strong, even looking through to the current rate environment.

Thank you.

Yeah, good morning. This is Juan Pablo, the treasurer. Yeah, I mean, part of the reflection is if you recall the quarter, it didn't start out where it ended up, right? So, you know, we're effectively, you know, purchasing, you know, bonds as they mature during the month. And, you know, any given period like this one where you start out lower and ended up higher, you're going to miss out on the higher rate, right? So I think of it more as on average during the quarter and not just the end point as the quarter. So that's in effect what we're doing is we've got about $1.5, $1.6 billion coming through every quarter, and we just kind of continue that mechanical process.

And just to add, I mean, as you see, we have some of the sliding appendix. We have a significant amount of investments that we are repricing on a quarterly basis, around $1.5, $1.6, out of which $600, $700 relates to legacy investments that were 1.25%. quarter percent, and even the newer investments were three and a quarter percent. So going forward, we will continue to see a significant pickup in the yield of that portfolio, given the repricing dynamics and given the interest rate environment that we have today.

So I think a couple of things, Timur. I mean, number one, yes, I think we would expect some pickup in activity related to municipal spending, particularly at the municipal level, maybe not as much at the central government level. But a couple of things there.

First, remember that there are a lot of projects that are still rebuilding with FEMA and federal funds. A lot of those projects are at the municipal level. So where we think we will see some of the first impact is in seeing a speed-up or a pickup in the activity. Maybe the mayors and the municipalities prioritizing either projects that are a big scale or that can be completed quickly. Since that money is going to be coming in from federal funds, that's a flow. So in and out, those monies are not sitting on our balance sheet right now. So other than that, you also have the Federal Oversight Board that still manages for a balanced budget, and the government needs to be able to get those budgets approved and execute to those approved budgets by the Oversight Board.

So, I mean, we give ranges, and in those ranges, we tend to incorporate scheduled payments, like for pensions or kind of the continued value bonds, and then some sense of operating accounts, and certainly competition, right? I mean, we actively bid on retaining certain excess funds from the government clients. But in terms of predicting or projecting that we're going to see significant declines because of infrastructure spend out of these funds, that is not something that we think will be significant.

Thank you.

So certainly when you look at from the original guidance and where we're at now, the auto portfolio is one of the areas where, you know, we've been under our expectations for the year. So that certainly has an impact. The other thing is that we are trying to be a lot more disciplined in our U. S. business as well. And historically, you know, we drove the teams to kind of hit their budget targets. and that has resulted in a lot of single product clients that we're not deepening those relationships and we're pushing our teams to really create deeper relationships, lead with deposits and even in CRE and multi-family transactions we want to make sure that we have a whole relationship and that's certainly slowing down the production of our US team.

We're also expecting some payoffs in our construction portfolio in the US like we saw in this quarter and And there are strong pipelines coming behind those, but as you can imagine, those construction projects do take a little bit more time to start seeing the effect. In Puerto Rico, there is still good demand. I think the issue in Puerto Rico is more about supply. We've been benefiting from 6% to 9% growth over the last few years. Some of that growth has been driven by tax incentives, and there's only so many large transactions that can occur in Puerto Rico. So I still see a lot of positive movement in Puerto Rico, a lot of positive demand, but just the scale and supply of it is reducing.

I mean, we've talked in the past that we have been growing, outpacing the Puerto Rico economy and GDP significantly. Given our size over time, we should be growing closer or above, you know, slightly above the Puerto Rico economy. I think what's important as we look forward, Erin, is that we will continue to see NII growth. projections into 27 particularly in this environment given the tailwinds that we have with the investment portfolio repositioning and the loan demand that we're seeing and the prices current prices we do expect to continue to see creating operating leverage in 2027 okay and can you just remind me on the on the ROTC updated guidance of 14 to 17 percent that you put out there last quarter or I think it was last quarter that's more of a kind of a longer term expectation right like just over time not not necessarily you know expectation I mean I guess we I know you're earning that now but I you know I just didn't know if that was like if you're always expecting to earn between that seems you I think always is a tough word.

Based on the environment that we're seeing, the balance sheet structure and all our plans and the execution that we're seeing from our teams, we felt very comfortable giving the guidance of the 14% to 17% on an annual basis.

And that's what we're driving our teams to. And I think what is important, we wanted it to also be sustainable. so it takes into account potentially different operating environments. So that's why maybe a little bit of the wider range and why so wide. I mean, it is for us the sustainable part is as important as just hitting the target.

Thank you. Thank you.

I think with the higher rates, I mean, the current higher rates impact those consumer loans a lot more, right, than the commercial. And we have been, if you look over the last, I would say probably since the Fed started moving rates down, we have been seeing kind of incremental yields in our loan portfolio every quarter. And this quarter was, I think, the first time we see a decline in those yields as I think the portfolio starts stabilizing. I mean, the way I look at it, I think given the ins and outs of the portfolio, I mean, auto, for example, our originations are, even this quarter where we didn't grow, I think the originations were like $450 million.

So it is a significant amount of volume that is coming in. So it's going to depend on, obviously, the credit risk profile of those clients, the terms of those loans But right now I don think loan yield is something you know that that putting pressure um you know in terms of as we look forward it not a it not a concern for us the again the nii we do see nii continuing to to expand in 2027 and um um yeah got it um okay that's that's helpful and then and then on expenses I appreciate um you lowered to the lower end of the guide which is you know nice given um the incentive compensation with with revenue coming in so strong just wondering um the drivers of that if additional you were better at getting some cost savings out or if maybe projects have been kicked out till next year.

We have not made any conscious decisions to move projects. I mean, for us, the rhythm of the project is more about capacity, how much we can continue. We've actually thrown in some non-budgeted or unanticipated projects this year. The teams have done a great job in delivering efficiencies around 50 million in recurring efficiencies have been implemented identified we expect that that amount to be a benefit next year obviously it's not at some point we're going to start seeing expense growth again but the teams have done an awesome job the 2% includes the as you mentioned profit sharing we we are expecting at this rate to max out that profit sharing payment based on our formulas and that's all embedded into that guide but it goes to just a lot of effort from a lot of people that are just we call it a lot of bunts and singles nothing huge to create those efficiencies and savings.

Let me just give you some of the numbers, and then I'll give you what it will take in order for us to be able to utilize more of that DTA. Our DTA number gross is around $600 million. dollars, net of an allowance of close to $385 million that gives a net of about $215 million DTA. The majority of that DTA expires between the years 228 and 2031, and the one way that we can use it is to become more profitable. I mean, that's it. I mean, the more money we make, the more we're going to be able to use our DTA. We have done, the team have done a great job of improving profitability in the U. S. So this year and last year, and that's something that, obviously we feel very proud, and something that we continue to work hard in order to realize as much as we can from those NOLs.

One thing, Gerard, the DTA in the U. S. as NOL-based is not part of regulatory capital. There are some limitations. So even if you were in a situation where you could reverse more of that DTA, it's not going to have a benefit on CET1. Now, the flip side of that is that the income that the U. S. business is generating, that capital is actually accruing at essentially a pre-tax level instead of at the after-tax amount that you see on a gap basis.

I mean, those two experiences in particular, I would say, I mean, part of the learnings, I mean, in one of the cases, it was a client that was extending into a new venture. So I think that's always something that we look very carefully from the writing standpoint. So that's something that we need to keep bringing our teams as you're diversifying your industry. That's something that also brings risk with it. I think the other one is a longstanding client, which have a very profitable relationship. Over time, he's in the food service industry. that over time competition and market conditions in the island.

From there, I mean, I don't know. I'm not sure. I mean, other than having a closer look at the client and being top of the client on a day-to-day basis, I don't think that from an underwriting perspective there was anything that we needed to change.

And I think, Gerard, I mean, given our position in Puerto Rico, we want to lend to some of these deals. You know, the telecom transaction, that was, you know, a fairly large deal. It makes sense to us as the primary bank in Puerto Rico to lead into an acquisition of a large telecom provider in Puerto Rico.

You know, unfortunately, you know, these are operational issues that the integration of the acquisition didn't go well, and, you know, we end up, you know, having to take the hit for it. But I think the other part that's important is that we've been able to work through a handful of these CNI loans over the last few quarters, but we still have been being able to perform, absorb those losses, and be able to continue to improve our profitability.

I mean, just to finalize, I mean, when you look at it, we have thousands of relationships. We have issues with maybe two cases last year and three cases this year. So just to keep in mind that the performance of our book has been very, very strong, notwithstanding the fact that every now and then we may have issues with one or another customer.

We have also, we said we expect net interest income to continue to grow, continue to be the guide for us as an organization. So in that regard, I mean, you can think of, we'll see an ascending trajectory that is going to depend upon the mix between assets, our assets between treasuries and investments, sorry, between investments and loans. I think the other factor is the level of public deposits.

You know, that's really a big driver, Manuel. I mean, if we continue to see growth in public deposits, that does put pressure on NIM. It's not good for NIM, but it does contribute nicely to NII, and we'll take the NII growth.

Yeah, I mean, I think when, you know, one of the cool things about going from the accounting and finance world to the CEO role is being able to spend time with clients and spending a lot of time with our customers. And you hear a lot of people enthusiastic about the opportunities in Puerto Rico. And these are people thinking, you know, three, five, ten years down the road. and you see some of their projects, some of their visions, some of those dreams, and if they start coming to fruition, you see acceleration.

We're able to bring in and see population growth in the U. S. , attract the professionals and the diaspora of Puerto Rico. You see $4 billion of manufacturing jobs – I'm sorry, $4 billion of manufacturing investment announced. As those things start coming in, if you're seeing a shift in population and the ecosystem that goes around some of those investments, You know, certainly, you know, those are things that could help the entire economy of Puerto Rico and will benefit from that lift.

We love the ROGC guidance because it captures everything, Manuel. So certainly, you know, when you look at that ban, you know, credit cost, you know, provision is a factor. NII growth, continued NII growth is a positive factor. you know the the our ability to be able to execute on our segment led strategies in Puerto Rico and deepening the positive relationships in Puerto Rico which we believe we can do that will help the the top end of that range so these are all things that you know drive profitability in banks and it's no different for us I appreciate the commentary thank you thank you I'm showing further questions at this time.