Copa Holdings (CPA) Q1 2026 earnings call transcript

Thank you, Carmen, and welcome everyone to our first quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Mr. Pedro Hedron, Executive Chairman and CEO of Copa Holdings, and Peter Dunkersoe, our CFO.

First, Pedro will begin by going through our first quarter highlights, followed by Peter, who will discuss our financial results in more detail. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts. As a reminder, Copa Holdings financial reports have been prepared in accordance with international financial reporting standards. In today's call, we will discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to comparable IFRS measures can be found in our earnings release, which is available on our website. Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations, and or intentions regarding future events and results.

These forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to defer materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in an annual report filed with the SEC. Now I'd like to turn the call over to our chairman and CEO, Mr. Pedro Herro.

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us for our first quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to recognize our more than 9,000 coworkers. Their commitment and professionalism continue to be key drivers of Copa's strong operational performance and leadership in our industry. Especially in today's higher and volatile jet fuel price environment, their consistent focus on execution and cost discipline has allowed us to enter the current fuel environment from a position of strength.

To them, as always, my sincere appreciation and respect. We delivered another quarter of strong financial and operational results, reaffirming the strength and resilience of our business model and our ability to consistently deliver industry-leading profitability. Our first quarter results reflect a strong demand environment across the region, continuous discipline and cost execution, and our relentless focus on delivering operational excellence to our passengers.

Now I'll go over our first quarter highlights. Capacity increased 14% year-over-year, while passenger traffic increased 15%, resulting in a . 8 percentage point increase in load factor to 87.2%. Passenger yield increased 1.6% year-over-year. Ratham came in at 11.8 cents, 2.7% higher compared to Q125. Unit costs for CASAM increased 1.6% to 8.9 cents, driven by higher fuel prices. CASAM excluding fuel declined 1% to 5.8 cents, reflecting our continued cost discipline.

And we delivered an industry-leading operating margin of 24.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than Q1 of last year. On the operational side, we delivered an on-time performance for the quarter of 91.6% and a flight completion factor of 99.7%, once again positioning Copa among the very best in the industry.

Turning to our network, we have resumed service to Valencia and Barquisimeto and have scheduled the restart of Barcelona in June. Together with our existing service to Maracaibo and Caracas, this returns us to serving five cities in Venezuela from our Hop of the Americas in Panama. With this addition, we will operate to 87 destinations in 32 countries, further strengthening our position We are now looking at the most complete and convenient connecting hub for travel in the Americas.

With regard to our fleet, during the quarter, we took delivery of two Boeing 737 MAX 8, ending Q1 with 127 aircraft. We have already received two additional MAX 8s in the second quarter, bringing our fleet total to 121 aircraft. Additionally, in April we announced a new Boeing 737 MAX order for 40 firm aircraft and 20 options, with delivery schedules between 2030 and 2034. This new order, which begins as we complete deliveries from our existing order book in 2029, reinforces our long-term growth strategy and ensures Copa HOP of the America continues to lead well into the next decade. As always, we maintain significant flexibility in our fleet plan, thanks to options, flight rights, lease expirations, and unencumbered aircraft, which provide us the ability to adjust our growth plan if needed.

Turning now to the current environment of higher and volatile jet fuel prices. Throughout our history, we have successfully navigated periods of increased fuel prices and volatility, consistently delivering strong financial results supported by the effectiveness of our business model, low cost, and disciplined execution. I feel confident that we will demonstrate this once again.

To summarize, we delivered strong industry-leading profitability in the quarter. We continue to improve our already competitive cost structure. We keep delivering best-in-class on time performance and reliability. We continue expanding and strengthening our network, the most complete and convenient hub for intra-America travel. The current demand environment remains strong, supporting yield increases. And our proven business model, built on having the best geographic positions, structurally low unit costs, a strong balance sheet and liquidity position, and a superior passenger-friendly product, positions us well to navigate the higher jet fuel price environment and, again, in 2026, deliver strong and industry-leading financial results.

With that, I will turn the call over to Peter, who will walk us through the financials in more detail.

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. I would like to start by reinforcing Pedro's recognition of our team's continued dedication to delivering industry-leading results.

Their commitment remains essential to a strong operational and financial performance. Let me begin by going over our first quarter highlights. We reported a record net profit of $212 million for $5.16 per share, representing a 20.5 year-by-year increase in earnings per share. Net margin came in at 20.2%, 0.5 percentage points higher year-over-year. Operating profit came in at $258 million, resulting in an operating margin of 24.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the first quarter of 2025. In 2015, unit costs excluding fuel, or XFU Chasm, declined 1% to 5.8 cents, reflecting the company's continued focus on cost discipline.

Including fuel, Chasm increased 1.6% year-over-year to 8.9 cents, driven by the increase in the average price of jet fuel. During the quarter all jet fuel prices increased 7 year from to per gallon While the average increase in the year the average increase in the year the average increase in the year the average increase for the quarter was moderate higher prices in the second half of March had a more pronounced impact on our results dropping an approximately million year impact on the first quarter performance Moving on to our balance sheet and liquidity, we entered the quarter with approximately $1.5 billion in cash, short-term and long-term investments, representing 40% of last 12 months revenues. This number excludes approximately $700 million in pre-delivery deposits for new aircraft, as well as 45 unencumbered aircraft and 15 unencumbered spare engines worth an estimated additional value of over $1 billion.

Total debt, including lease liabilities, stood at $2.4 billion, and we ended the quarter with an adjusted net debt-to-Evita ratio of 0.7 times, reflecting our strong financial position.

I'd like to highlight that our average cost of debt, compromised solely of aircraft-related financing, remains highly competitive at 3.6%. Turning now to the return of value to our shareholders, the Board of Directors has ratified the company's second quarterly dividend for the year of $1.71 per share to be paid June 15 to all shareholders of record as of May 29. Additionally, during the quarter, we repurchased $45 million worth of shares, representing approximately 1% of the total outstanding shares.

Finally, turning to our outlook, we continue to see a robust demand environment across the region. And our effective business model, combined with continued cost discipline, positioned us to continue sustaining strong financial performance. For the second quarter, we expect to deliver an operating margin in the range of 8 to 12 percent, with a capacity growth in ASMs of approximately 16 percent year-by-year.

These results are impacted by a projected year-by-year increase in the all-in jet fuel price per gallon in the range of 80 to 90 percent, for which we expect to recover approximately 50 percent via higher revenues. This partial passage is a result of the already advanced booking levels. For the full year, we expect to continue capacity growth within the range of 11 to 13 percent, a load factor of approximately 87 percent, and unit cost excluding fuel of approximately 5.7 cents. Based on the current fuel curve and assuming recent yield improvements are sustained, we expect to recover a substantial portion of the increased fuel cost expense for the year, reaching up to 100% by the end of the year.

We will review our full year operating margin and RASM expectation as conditions stabilizes and visibility for the second half of the year becomes clear. In summary, despite the current field environment, we remain confident in our ability to deliver strong results supported by a robust demand, discipline cost management, and our proven and resilient business model. Thank you, and we'll now open the call for questions from the analyst.

Hi, Sabi. I would say that we see strength across the network, and not necessarily one region is stronger than another. So I think we haven't maybe seen this in a while. There's always weakness somewhere, but right now every region we serve is performing very well and is showing strength.

Well, I think that will always play a positive role when currencies are stronger in Latin America. We've been asked that question before, and the answer has always been that we tend to benefit more from stronger Latin American currency than the opposite, because we do generate a little bit higher percent of our traffic down south than in the other direction. And if we look at the main currencies of Latin America compared to one year ago, most of the important ones of the larger markets are up double digits. So, yeah, that, of course, plays a positive role in what we're seeing.

Thank you.

I think it's – I'm not sure if we can be very specific about that, but the currencies have remained strong. They've actually gained a little bit in the last month and two months. Some are stable. Others have gained a little. We are not seeing weakness in the currency. So I think it's a good environment for what we're seeing overall in terms of demand, even demand being resilient over yield increases that we've also seen from the whole industry in the last few months.

Hello, Dwayne. This is Peter, and thank you for the question. I would say that we're guided for a full year chasm of 5.7, and we always talk about chasm being pretty much in the range across the year, pretty stable. So I think that's what we should be expecting for the year, a relatively stable chasm, and that's backed on all the initiatives we talked, but it should be stable across the year.

No, not particularly.

Thank you. Thank you.

I will start with the first question, then I will ask Peter to help me with the cost question. As I mentioned before, we're seeing strong demand across our network. All regions are carrying their own weight, and the way we are reflecting this is that we've just shown our April numbers with ASM growth around 16%, and RPMs were flat with 16% growth, And there's been yield adjustments done by the whole industry to compensate for fuel.

So that combination of strong double-digit growth in spite of yield adjustments in the industry is, I think, a good testament of how strong is demand in our region right now.

Hello, Julia. This is Peter. So I'll talk about the cost structure. So mainly what we're seeing that is driving the cost down and some of the initiatives are backed on, and I'll go to the main. One is our ASM growth, backed on the capacity and the densification project that we've been talking about, and of course that helps us continue to dilute part of our fixed costs. We can see, let's say, 30% of our gas fuel expenses are not exactly directly related to capacity. So we can make sure those grow less than ASMs and benefit from that growth.

And then I would say the other is we continue seeing some benefits on our sales and distribution strategy and other initiatives we have in that bucket. And those are, I would say, if I would give you color, those are the two main buckets that I would call out in the cost structure going forward.

Thank you. Thank you.

Hello, Mike. How are you? Thank you for the questions. Our cash capex for the year is in the neighborhood of $300 to $300 million. That's our cash capex. It will be mainly a maintenance. If I put up together the fleet capex, it will put us somewhere around $750 to $800 million for the year. So, we don't necessarily have for multi-year capex, but the cash capex would be in the neighborhood, and then the fleet or the aircraft capex would be related to that fleet growth that you're seeing for next year.

Okay, great.

Let me add something. Mike, hi. Let me add to that. Last year, we took delivery of 13 aircraft. This year, it's seven aircraft, or eight aircraft we're taking delivery this year. So a little bit less than last year. Going forward, we have a lot of flexibility. Like we've done in the past when we needed to adjust deliveries and adjust capacity, so we're very comfortable that we can adjust to the business environment as needed, as we've done before. We never rolled the dice without a parachute. I know those two things don't go together, but you know what I mean.

Exactly.

Yeah, thank you, Mike. Besides the obvious of spirit going away that you just mentioned, we haven't really seen any particular movement from the rest of the airlines serving the region. We haven't seen any capacity pullback in response to the current fuel crisis. That is not to say that it might not happen in the future, but we haven't really seen anything up to now.

Thank you. Thank you.

So, I'll take the first one. On the fuel and the crack, we're obviously seeing similar as everybody else in the fuel environment. We do have a 15-day lag on how they pass through the increase, and probably that's one of the reasons we're seeing an average in the first quarter lower than the expectation. Going forward, we are using U. S. Gulf Coast jet fuel future curves, and that's what we're basing on. And similar to everybody, so we're seeing similar trends like everybody else. And then with that, we add our interplane cost that should be in the neighborhood of 30 cents per gallon. That's what gives us our guidance on the fuel for the rest of the year.

And then I'll let Pedro talk about the recovery. Yeah, well, I think when we talk about guidance for the year or the rest of the year, for that matter, there's still many, many unknowns and many variables that come into play, starting with fuel, which is what's having the greatest impact right now. We don't really know in which direction fuel is going to go the rest of the year. We're following the fuel curve, and if we go by the fuel curve that we have right now, the yield increases that are already in place, and the fact that for the second half of the year, bookings are much lower, because that's just how the booking curve works.

It means that those yield increases that are already in place are going to have a more significant impact in the second half of the year than what they were able to have in the second quarter. We were already sold or booked around 40% in the second quarter when this conflict and fuel prices hit us, so we could not do anything about that 40%. And for the second half of the year, it's much different. Bookings were much lower. So our guidance is based on that. Current yield adjustments that are already in place, a fuel curve which no one controls and is very volatile, and the bookings that were already in place for the yield adjustments Those are all variables Well the booking is not a It that going to change because I mean that going to improve at the new yield The yields depend on competition and demand which right now demand looks very strong and competition is being rational And then the fuel curve might be the one variable that no one really can predict Fantastic.

Thank you. Thank you.

Well, from what we can see, and from speaking to our fuel suppliers, we think we're in a good position in terms of supply. Our oil comes mostly, the oil that gets refined and turned into jet fuel comes mostly from the U. S. , from Mexico, and other countries, Venezuela, Colombia, et cetera. So it all comes from this part of the world. It's not affected by the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, fuel prices are international, and, you know, regional supplies don't change the WTI or Brent prices. But in terms of having the availability of the jet fuel, we're in a good position.

And, you know, in the times we're living, that's actually great.

I'm not sure if I understood the question, because the reality is what we build with always. We price in dollars, as you know. So strong currencies tend to favor us, even though we do well also when currencies are not so strong. Currencies usually move in the same direction like it's happening now, but sometimes there are particular issues in countries that make it different, I mean that make them stand out in a maybe negative way. But I'm not sure exactly what are you looking for in the question, Dan?

Thank you, Dan. We love your easy questions. Sorry.

Thank you so much.

Okay, thank you, Philippe. A few things. If we go back and we look back a few years, we have been growing capacity much less than our competitors. Just for lack of enough deliveries, we would have liked to have grown capacity faster in 2024 and 2025. We just didn't have enough planes coming in. So this year is different, and we needed that capacity from before, and it coincides with strong demand on top of it.

So we have so many options in terms of where to fly our planes. But given the current crisis, we are shifting capacity a little bit, not in a significant way, but shifting it towards more profitable. Our whole network is very profitable, of course, as you know. But we're trying to shift to where it's needed most or where it can be even more profitable.

So that helps us also compensate for the higher fuel. But nothing is very significant because we have strong demand in most of our network.

Oh, Venezuela. You mentioned Venezuela. Thank you. Yeah. We're going back. Well, first of all, I should say that we are the only, the very only airline, International airline, I must say. The very only international airline that never stopped flying to Venezuela, except for like a 10-day window that had to do with the whole military operation that was going on, and it was not safe to operate during that window. But we've had a constant presence in that market, and I'm glad to say that by June of the year, in a few weeks, we're going to be back to the same capacity we had a little bit over a year ago.

We will go back to five cities and over 40 weekly flights in Venezuela. And in terms of impact in unit revenues or yields, nothing significant because Venezuela is going to be in the average.

Thank you. Thank you so much.

Okay, thank you all. This concludes our earnings call. Before we leave, I want to mention that Copa operates the strongest network. We have a strong and diversified set of cities and regions we serve, the lowest unit cost for a full-service airline, And a superior product to most of our narrow body competitors. So we feel we are in a really good position to deal with the current crisis and come out ahead as we've been able to do in the past.

So thank you for your continued support. Thank you for participating in our call, and hope you have a great day.