Copa Holdings (CPA) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript

Thank you, Alia. And welcome, everyone, to our second quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Mr. Pedro Hedron, Executive Chairman and CEO of Copa Holdings, Mr. Robert Carey, Executive Vice President, and Mr. Peter Donkersu, our CFO. Peter will begin with an overview of the quarter. Robert will then discuss commercial performance and operational highlights. Peter will conclude with a review of our financial results and outlooks. Immediately after, we will see the call with questions from analysts. As a reminder, Copa Holdings financial reports have been prepared in accordance with international financial reporting standards.

In today's call, we will discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to comparable IFRS measures can be found in our earnings release, which is available on our website. Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations, and or intentions regarding future events and results.

These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to defer materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report file with the SEC. Now, I would like to turn the call over to our chairman and CEO, Mr. Pedro Hedron.

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us for our second quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to recognize and thank our more than 9,000 coworkers. Thanks to their commitment, professionalism, and discipline execution, our team continues to deliver strong financial results while maintaining exceptional operational reliability and outstanding service to our passengers.

They are the foundation of Copa's success and have my admiration and appreciation. Our second quarter results demonstrate the resilience of our business model in a significant behavior fuel price environment and reinforce our ability to continue generating profitable growth through different market cycles. During the quarter, we delivered an operating profit A total rate of $91.7 million and an operating margin of 8.7%. These results were affected by an increase of 85% in the all-in fuel cost compared to Q225, with approximately 40% of our bookings sold before the fuel cost increased. In the quarter, we grew capacity 16.5% measured in ASMs while maintaining solid load factors. Our capacity additions in 2026, after years in which aircraft delivery delays slowed our growth, allow us to further consolidate our hub of the Americas advantage, especially in In an environment of strong passenger demand across our network.

Looking ahead, booking trends remain strong, which support our expectations for another year of high load factors and solid financial performance. As part of our continuous efforts to strengthen the hope of the Americas, we recently set in place our transition from six to eight connecting banks beginning in In March, 2027. This decision will improve connectivity throughout our network, provide greater travel options for our passengers, increase aircraft utilization, optimize the use of airport infrastructure, and further strengthen Panama's position as the leading hub for intra-America's travel. Aligned with our structurally low unit cost, best-in-class operational reliability, strong balance sheet, and the unique advantages of our hub of the Americas, we remain confident in our ability to successfully execute our growth plans and continue delivering value to our shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Robert, who will discuss the quarter's commercial and operational highlights.

Thank you, Pedro, and good morning, everyone. Before I start, I would also like to thank our coworkers across the organization for their continued dedication and outstanding execution throughout the quarter. I have now been here two years, and Copa's culture is clearly one of our strengths. Let me begin by reviewing some of the quarter's key commercial and operational highlights. Operating revenues increased 25.7% year-over-year to $1.1 billion. Passenger yields increased 8.7% compared to Q2 2025. Unit revenue, or RASM, increased 7.9% to 11.6 cents, while capacity, measured in ASMs, increased 16.5% year-over-year.

Load factor was 86.7%, compared to 87.3% in Q2 2025. Revenue performance for the quarter was partially impacted by the World Cup, which temporarily affected travel patterns during June. As a result, June load factors were 2.3 percentage points lower year over year, putting modest pressure on unit revenues. We estimate that the World Cup reduced second quarter rasm by approximately 0.1 cents. Despite this headwind, we delivered another quarter of solid revenue performance and continue to see strong demand trends throughout our network going forward.

Demonstrating this strong demand, we published our July traffic numbers this week, reporting a load factor of nearly 90% on a year-over-year capacity increase of 16%. Furthermore, this load factor, one of our highest ever, came in a higher-yield environment. As you can see from our full-year guidance, we are expecting these strong load factors to continue. On the operational side, we delivered industry-leading results. During the quarter, Copa Airlines delivered an on-time performance of 90.6% and a flight completion factor of 99.8%. These results position Copa Airlines among the very best airlines globally for operational reliability and represent a key differentiator of our passenger value proposition.

Turning to the network, recently we announced the addition of Por Lamar in Isla Margarita, Venezuela, a popular leisure destination which will start in November. With this addition, Copa will serve 88 destinations in 32 countries throughout the Americas, further strengthening the breadth and convenience of our network and reinforcing the leadership position of our Hub of the Americas. We also recently achieved an important milestone in enhancing our passenger experience with the launch of Starlink onboard internet. In July, Copa operated its first Starlink-equipped flight, becoming the first airline in Latin America to offer high-speed Starlink connectivity.

We expect the rollout of Starlink Wi-Fi across our fleet to be completed in the first half of 2027. Finally, on the fleet side, we took delivery of four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft during the quarter, ending the period with a fleet of 131 aircraft. For the remainder of the year, we expect to receive one additional 737 MAX 8. As always, we maintain significant flexibility in our fleet plan through delivery options, slide rights, lease expirations, and a substantial base of unencumbered aircraft, which allows us to adjust the pace of growth if market conditions warrant. To conclude, demand trends and booking patterns remain strong.

With that, I will turn the call over to Peter, who will review our financial results and outlook in more detail.

Thank you, Robert, and good morning. I'd also like to start by recognizing our team's continued dedication to delivering industry-leading results. Their commitment remains essential to our strong operational and financial performance. In the second quarter, we reported an operating profit of $91.7 million, resulting in an operating margin of 8.7%, compared to 21.7% in the second quarter of 2025. Net profit totaled $68.2 million, or $1.67 per share, and a net margin of 6.4%. Unit costs, excluding fuel, or ex-fuel chasm, remained flat year-to-year to 5.7 cents, reflecting our continuous focus on cost discipline. During the quarter, CASAM increased 26% to $0.106, a result of significantly higher fuel prices.

During the quarter, average all-in jet fuel prices increased 85% year-over-year, from $2.32 to $4.28 per gallon. One despite having approximately 40 of our second quarter bookings already sold before the increase in fuel prices strong demand and higher yields enable us to recover approximately 40 of the year increase in fuel expenses during the quarter Our fuel recovery calculation compares the year-over-year increase in revenues attributable to higher revenue with the year-over-year increase in fuel expenses resulting from higher all-in fuel prices, both calculated using 2026 capacity levels.

Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.5 billion in cash, short-term, and long-term investments, representing 39% of last 12 months revenue. Our balance sheet remains among the strongest in the airline industry and continues to be a key competitive advantage. Total debt, including lease liabilities, stood at approximately $2.7 billion at quarter end, all of it related to aircraft financing.

Our average cost of debt is currently 3.7%, and we ended the quarter with a net debt-to-Evita ratio of 0.9x. Our financial strength continues to provide substantial flexibility as we continue to execute our long-term strategy.

Turning now to shareholder returns, I'm pleased to announce that our board of directors ratified the company's third quarterly dividend payment of $1.71 per share. The dividend will be paid on September 15th to all shareholders of record as of August 31st.

Looking ahead, while fuel prices remain elevated and volatile relative to prior year levels, underlining demand trends across our network continue to be strong. Based on these demand strengths and current fuel cost projections, we are updating our full year outlook and now expect an operating margin for 2026 to be in the range of 17 to 19 percent, with a capacity growth of between 14 to 15 percent. This outlook assumes approximately a load factor of 87%, a RASM of $0.12, an X-fuel chasm of $5.7, and an all-in fuel price per gallon of $3.60.

To summarize, demand and revenue trends remain strong across our network. We are maintaining industry-leading cost discipline. Our balance sheet remains among the strongest in the industry, and our proven business model continues to position as well to navigate the current fuel environment while delivering profitable growth and long-term shareholder value. Thank you, and we'll now open the call for questions from the analyst.

Okay, so in Q3 was pre-war of course, we had about 20%, a little bit below 20% booked for Q3, and of course much less for Q4, almost nothing for Q4.

And today, Pedro, how much is booked?

Yeah, and then, Savi, your question was, what is the outlook right now for Q3, or what is the booking level for Q3 and Q4, correct?

Yeah, right now we're about 75% booked for Q3 and about 25% sold for Q4.

Yeah, we published up to 2027, if I'm not mistaken, and we're getting 12 aircraft in 2027. And as always, we have some flexibility. We're going to let go two 700s that come up for the 20-year checks. So we won't do those 20-year checks. We'll let two 700s go. So net, it will be 10 aircraft joining Copa Holdings in 2027. We still have another five 700s, which we can let go. We can park at any time. We can harvest the engine. So we also have that flexibility, but we are expecting a strong 2027. Of course, we're not guiding to 2027 yet, but we are very comfortable with the aircraft we're having delivered next year, and we think we need them all.

Now, for 2028, the number, again, we haven't shared that yet. It will be higher because it's like almost the end of the road for all the Boeing delays, delivery delays that we had in the last four years. However, we also have a number of lease expirations. We have six leaf expirations plus the 5700, so we have like 11 aircraft that we could let go easily in 2028, depending on demand, and plus we have our unencumbered aircraft, which is over 40. So we have lots of flexibility. Again, we think we're going to need most of our 2028 deliveries. We'll share that information towards the end of the year, but we have lots of flexibility.

Thanks, Freda.

I'll let Robert answer that question. But I'll say that I think the number one thing that's very important is that we're seeing strong demand right now. And so that makes us very comfortable with our projections, of course, as of today. I will let Robert share some of the specifics.

Yeah, morning, Dwayne. At this point, we are seeing plus 10% on RASM in H2. I would say it is fairly consistent across Q3, Q4 in terms of year-over-year variation. It is broadly somewhere between the two. So, I think nothing really of note in either quarter that varies.

Hello, Dwayne. How are you? This is Peter. I would say that it's pretty stable, the net interest expense we're going to see across the year, nothing to highlight. As we receive more aircraft, we have a little bit more financing costs, but it's embedded in our fleet plan and pretty much straightforward on how to calculate it.

Yeah, thank you, Guillermo. In terms of the increased ASN guidance, if I heard correctly, I would say a few things. One, that we were conservative or careful with our original guidance, not being 100% sure on the Boeing delivery dates. As the year has gone through not only is Boeing delivering on time but actually at least one aircraft we got ahead One aircraft we got ahead by a month another a few other aircraft came in a few weeks before So we've been able to deploy those aircraft much, much faster during the year. Plus we have increased utilization. So we're also getting additional aircraft hours and ASM through utilization. So the combination of those factors allows us to increase our capacity guidance.

And of course the demand is there. We have strong demand. So we're really happy to be able to guide to higher ASM capacity. In terms of Starlink, I'll let Robert compliment the answer. The CapEx was done many months ago. It's already in the books and in the guidance. It's there. I don't know if you want to share something else, Robert.

Yes. On the business model, first, we're excited to be the first airline in Latin America to be offering this. The business model complimentary access is going to be there for business class All of our preferred member gold, platinum, and presidential members, as well as Starlink subscribers. And then other passengers are going to pay for the service. That's the business model we set up. And on the CapEx, I'll just add that it was prepaid, as Tendo said, and it will just start depreciating and flow into depreciation once the service is installed. But for the cash purposes, it's already sitting on our PP&E.

So, hello, Felipe. How are you? This is Peter. I'll address your first question regarding CapEx. And, yeah, we're seeing CapEx right now between $700 and $750, so basically $50 million less than what we guided at the beginning of the year. And this is basically most of it is because we're expecting that one less delivery that moved a couple weeks from December to January. So basically that's what's guiding that difference. And then I'll let Robert talk about and Pedro talk about the competition point.

Yeah, so I don't want to, of course, talk much about pricing and competition. It is a delicate subject, but so far what we see is a lot of discipline triggered by fuel prices, of course. As fuel prices come down, we'll see what happens. We are comfortable with our guidance, and I must say I think it's important to mention that pre-war, pre the high fuel prices, average fares, at least in our region and network, were actually below, average yields were below 2019, and that's without taking into consideration inflation. So we're comfortable that the yields can be sustained as oil comes down. It's not at 100%, but enough for a positive effect going forward.

I don't know, Robert.

No, I think you covered it.

You're talking about the RASM guidance, right?

Okay, EBIT. Yeah, so we ended up, we had guided for an 8 to 12 range of giving, even all the uncertainty related to the war, to fuel prices, and even to how demand was going to respond to higher prices. So we gave a wider range than what we usually give. We ended up within that range on the lower side of it, mostly due to RASM, because our unit costs were within, actually were at target, 100% in target. So it was mostly coming from RASAM. Fuel was also pretty much in the range we said, which was between 80 and 90 percent year over year.

So the difference was RASAM. I will let Robert add to it, but I will say that it was kind of very early, maybe mid-quarter when we spoke, And that's where it ended up. I mean, I don't think there's a lot of magic to it. It's just what happened. Roberto, I don't know if you want to add to that.

Yeah, I think you've covered most of it, Pedro. I mean, I think, more than Rogelio, the only thing I would say, as we highlighted, the World Cup did impact us a bit more than expected in June. And that's the most notable factor we need to call out in RASM being a bit on the lower side than we expected. Everything else is kind of small factors, and I think the only other thing is, as Pedro highlighted, we had a wide range. It was still pretty early on in how we were trying to understand everything going on with the new fuel environment, and so nothing else of note to call out. And, J. D. , I would also mention that, of course, we are guiding to very high margins for the year, which means that we're guiding for very strong margins in the second half of the year, and especially as fuel eases.

I mean, fuel is still quite high because of crack, even more so than WTI and Brent. The crack spread is very high, and we're still guiding to very strong margins for the second half of the year and for the whole year.

Okay, so let's get that information. So about 50%, half of the growth is full year effect from what was implemented last year, and then maybe a small percent, 10% will be new destinations, and the rest is new frequencies, additional frequencies. And yes, we expect to announce at least one more destination for year-end. That should come probably before the end of the month, before the end of August, I think we'll be announcing what would be our 89th destination to be implemented in December.

Yeah, thank you, Mike. I'll let Robert answer.

Hey, Mike. Good morning. So I think, look, we're excited to take it from six to eight banks. Quite the growth story. Look, I think in terms of facilities, obviously this helps us in freeing up capacity. We're not at the limit yet in the six-bank structure, but we were starting to near the limits of it. This obviously creates more capacity for growth over the coming years and eases the need for additional infrastructure. Plus, we have the internal benefits. We get better utilization. The aircraft as well is a lot more options for our customers, which is what's most exciting. I think in terms of the airport infrastructure and what it changes, there's still a number of investment plans here at the airport over the coming five-year horizon, which will help with gates, which will help with runway capacity, et cetera, as well as just some other projects that are ongoing here.

So the combination of those two, pretty similar to, I think, what we talked about back in the investor day, It gave us a pretty good runway going forward into the next, you know, call it five, ten years to keep growing comfortably.

No. I mean, I think connectivity, it actually gives more options, and roughly the connectivity for the passenger in terms of time of connection. I think, you know, there's some that go down a little, some that go up a little, so the on-hole, the average is broadly the same. And aircraft decisions, no. I think, you know, no change, and we're evaluating the different fleet types that exist for our new order.

What the bank will do, and Robert mentioned most of it, and he mentioned that utilization is going to improve, and then there are going to be better schedules for passengers. Also, the airport assets are going to be better utilized, so it's also great for the airport, which is great for all. So we see it as a very, very positive development.

Hello, Jens. How are you? This is Peter. On the buyback program, we've executed $45 million year-to-date, and we have around $60 million left for the program to be executed. And, of course, as we always said, whenever we finish, we'll request the authorization to have an additional program. We always like to have the program open. And then on the delivery schedule, I'll tell you that we have small movements as we get closer to deliveries, and deliveries are updated, we have movements. And most of the movements we clarify about a week where deliveries are expected in December, and then they move to January. It doesn't change the ASM's counts for, at least this year doesn't change at all because we didn't have that plane flying this year, so it doesn't change.

And then the next year, we also have some deliveries moving from 27 to 28, but also with December deliveries that are moving to January 28. So again, nothing material. It's just the regular update that we get as we get closer to the delivery dates. I don't know if you want to add something.

The only thing the other part, Jen, is the 12 next year are pretty evenly spaced throughout the year.

Thank you. I'll start, and then I'll complement my answer and maybe add some color. But we see strength throughout our network. There isn't really one region that is doing much better or that is weak compared to the rest. Of course, we're always going to have certain markets that are going to be on the top end, and then some that are going to be in between and maybe lower. But actually every market is very healthy, and we're getting demand from our whole network. So that's, I would say, a very positive development, which is not always the case. And the diversity of our network is always an asset, and I guess it's a greater asset now that everything is doing well.

I don't know, Robert, you're going to ask that.

Yeah, I think the only thing, as Pedro said, across the board, it's pretty consistent that all the markets are reacting, are showing positive demand signs, and pretty evenly the yield increases coming through. So I think that's a very positive sign to where things stand.

No, I think this was the other question. Brazil, North America are slightly stronger, but it's kind of on the margin. Everything is doing very well. And Albert, we answer your other question.

We're pretty much positive on how sustainable the price increases are going to be, Because something I mentioned before, that before the oil crisis, our yields, our average yields in the region were below 2019, and that's not even taking into account inflation. So as fuel comes down, even if there are some adjustments and some pricing comes down, we believe there will remain a positive impact.

And I should also say that we had a record quarter in the first quarter of this year. So going back to that, it's perfectly fine. And that was with the kind of lower than 2019 yields. We still had a record quarter. So if something is left, which we are pretty sure there will be something left from the price increases, even if the yield comes down, it's just going to be net positive over an already strong base. So we're very positive about this.

Okay, thank you. Thank you, Prater. And thank you all for participating in our earnings call and our Q2 earnings call. Also, thank you for your continued support. As you know, you have a committed Copa team on this side, always working hard to make the results better, and with a very, very positive attitude over how this year we think it's going to turn out. So, again, thank you and have a great day.