Home Bancshares (HOMB) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the Home Bancshares Inc. call on October 15, 2026.

Held
October 15, 2026
Length
58 min
Tone
Confident0.78
Analysts
6
Words
8,464
Nine-month adjusted earnings
$380 milliontoward $500 million goal
NII sensitivity
5.6% increaseup 100 basis points
Variable-rate loans
$7 billionincludes CCFG
Fixed-rate maturities
$1.2 billionnext 12 months; 5.72% weighted average
Mountain Commerce savings
a little over 5 millionannualized
Texas credit sale proceeds
$101, $102 millionagainst $91 million book balance
Q4 share repurchases
400,000 sharesquarter to date

Summary

Management framed the quarter around disciplined returns, balance-sheet positioning and progress resolving legacy credit, while presenting loan growth as a possibility rather than a forecast.

  • $380M$380 million in adjusted earnings through nine months keeps the company on its $500 million goal.
  • $102M$101–$102 million in expected proceeds from the Texas credit sales compares with a $91 million book balance.
  • $500M$500 million in unusual loan losses over 18 months has now passed, Allison said, with opportunities improving.
  • Mountain Commerce integration is expected to add savings after the November conversion.

Guidance

  • Q4 non-interest expense roughly flat with Q3, with integration savings offsetting inflation
  • Q4 provision expected to be zero, subject to anticipated recoveries
  • $5MAnnualized Mountain Commerce cost savings a little over $5 million
  • $50MNon-interest income expected to migrate closer to the roughly $50 million six-quarter average
  • Texas credit sale proceeds expected to close this quarter

What analysts pressed on

  • 01NIM sensitivity: management cited a 5.6% NII increase in a +100-basis-point scenario, conditional on deposit-cost control and loan repricing.
  • 02Loan growth: executives cited sizable opportunities but said they were unsure whether rate moves explain improving activity.
  • 03Loan payoffs: management said payoffs could remain near the prior quarter, but believed better opportunities could offset them.
  • 04Credit resolution: the Texas sale process is advanced, while a separate sub-$15 million loan remains subject to borrower reinstatement or sale.
  • 05Deposit beta: management described customer-by-customer pass-through, citing 40% modeled beta on checking and savings and 100% on CDs.
  • 06Expenses: management had not set next-year guidance and said the budget was pending Mountain Commerce conversion.

Notable disclosures

  • $65M$65 million of AOCI increase was absorbed while tangible book value per share still rose three cents to $15.35.
  • $102M$101–$102 million in expected Texas-credit sale proceeds exceeds the $91 million book balance; default interest has not been recognized.
  • CCFG origination was bleak in Q3, with no soft quotes or term sheets, but its pipeline picked up in recent weeks.
  • Management said one potential acquisition went quiet, another was rejected after loan-book diligence, and a third remained under consideration.

Risks raised

  • Deposit competition remains fierce, with advertised 12-month CD rates reaching 4.5% in some markets.
  • Loan payoffs could remain close to the prior quarter, and management acknowledged timing is difficult to forecast.
  • Lending structure discipline remains weak in the market even as pricing discipline may be improving.
  • The separate sub-$15 million CCFG loan resolution depends on borrower reinstatement, a loan sale or foreclosure.
  • Inflationary pressure may offset some Q4 and next-year savings initiatives.

Tone: Confident 0.78

Management emphasized record earnings, capital returns, improving loan opportunities and an advanced Texas credit resolution, while acknowledging competition and uncertain payoff timing.

Who spoke

Company

  • Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations
  • John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO
  • J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank
  • Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer
  • Chris PoultonPresident
  • Brian DavisChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Analysts

  • Woody LayAnalyst, KBW
  • John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets
  • Matt OlneyAnalyst, Stephens
  • Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James
  • Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般
  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the HOME BANC SHARE INC, third quarter 2026 earnings call. The purpose of this call is to discuss the information and data provided in the quarterly earnings release issued after the market closed yesterday. The company presenters will begin with prepared remarks, then entertain questions. Please note that if you would like to ask a question during the question and answer session, please press star, then one on a touchtone phone. If you decide you want to withdraw your question, press star, then one again to remove yourself from the list. The company has asked me to remind everyone to refer to their cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements. You will find this note on page 3 of their Form 10-K filed with the SEC in February 2026. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode, and this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Donna Townsall, Director of Investor Relations. Donna, please go ahead.

00:57

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. With me for today's discussion is our Chairman John Allison, Stephen Tipton, Chief Executive Officer of Centennial Bank, Kevin Hester, President and Chief Lending Officer, Brian Davis, our Chief Financial Officer, Chris Poulton, President of CCFG, and Scott Walter of Shore Premier Finance. The story of the quarter was stability, strength, and shareholder value creation. All banks are not created equal in management, profitability, margin, and among many other categories. And we certainly work hard at home to set ourselves apart. We are proud to announce another record-setting quarter here at home, and our team is prepared to provide more details about our performance. Our first speaker today will be our Chairman, John Allison.

01:46

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Welcome everyone. It's another strong quarter for HOME BANC SHARES, led by record earnings of $129.1 million, or $0.65 a share. For the first nine months of 26, we remain on a strong path towards my goal, our goal, of $500 million. Or does it sound better to say a half a billion? I never thought I'd be saying that. But we're on a path for that. For the first nine months of 26, we produced $380 million in adjusted earnings, keeping us on a strong path towards our goal of $500 million. Really, the real difference between the earnings and the adjusted earnings is primarily Mountain Commerce, the merger expense of $12 to $13 million. During the quarter, we paid our new dividend of $0.23 a share.

I know y'all are all happy with that. I would think that's a 9.5% increase, and my wife is extremely happy, as y'all remember. She's a dividend hawk for everyone. Increase in the last quarter, we purchased $1,300,000 shares for approximately $39.3 million, creating a shareholder buyback yield of $0.69 in the third quarter. Second quarter, we created a shareholder buy-back yield of . 77, and the first quarter of . 25. So total through three quarters, additional shareholder return of 1.71%. For the three quarters, we've repurchased 3.3 million shares, approximately 94.4 million, with plans to continue stock repurchases during the fourth quarter. Couple that with a new dividend yield of approximately 3%. It is our goal to return as much capital to our shareholders as prudent to do so.

I understand the importance of shareholders because they are the ones we work for. Being a founder, chairman, owner, operator, and largest individual shareholder, I understand the alignment firsthand management is invested in alongside our shareholders. And we remain committed to sharing the rewards of the company performance with them. That more than confirms the passion and drive to share the rewards with all our shareholders. HOME's earnings power and balance sheet flexibility was shining brightly in the third quarter. With record profitability, strong stock repurchases, margin expansion, increased dividend, Consistent ROA, strong PPNR, tangible book per share growth, low efficiency ratio. It will be interesting to see once we, as time goes on in this quarter, how we compare to the rest of the industry.

We're proud of the fact that we've been named by many companies for outstanding peer-leading performance awards year-end and year-out, and as we forge forward on our goal of a half a billion dollars in profit. As I said in the second quarter, Mountain Commerce transaction is performing very well and making a continued contribution to the total company. Based on what I've seen, I do that transaction again. We expect additional benefits as we complete the back office integration during the fourth quarter. Congratulations on a good job to our new Tennessee partners. I'm proud of the work you're doing. Again, the big surprise like the second quarter was the third quarter average loan growth balance is outstanding. What appeared to be a large down quarter like last quarter turned out to be only down $28 million on average balances from last quarter.

That's a result of keeping many of the loans at payoffs coming late in the quarter. Our funding strategy also continued to benefit earnings. Barn expenses during the quarter declined by $2.3 million. Decrease in interest expense on deposits was $1.2 million of that, and decrease in $1.1 million in interest expense on federal home loan borrowings and other borrowings as we reduced total borrowings by $200 million during the quarter. Many banks may think their AOCI pain is over because they restructured the balance sheet. It took hundreds of millions of dollars, in some cases billions of dollars, of losses attempting to repair the damage inflicted by their decisions. The story appears to be repeating itself again as rates continue to climb.

Home avoided taking excessive duration risks, maintained balance sheet flexibility, and protected shareholder capital. Our decision not to build a large, long-duration securities portfolio has proven to be the right one. Higher rates still affected our AOCI during the quarter, but impact remained manageable relative to our size. If you remember, we've not bought securities in years to speak of.

A key point that differentiates HOME from most banks, as evidenced by the increase in margin for the quarter, is the balance sheet is structured to increase the margin as rates increase. Donna said all banks are not created equally, and they're not created equally. But when rates go up, bank stocks usually go down when it's actually positive for HOME BANCSHARES, as you can see, for the quarter. We built this balance sheet to perform through different economic and interest rate environments, and that discipline continues to benefit our shareholders through today. Those pushing public banks to buy low-rate, long-term securities several years ago are now the ones pushing for growth. Grow, grow, grow. Growth at any expense. They say, Johnny, open up that loan machine.

I really bet that few, if any of them, have ever run a bank. Being one of the most profitable and safest banks in the country, year in and year out, has worked for our shareholders. We will stay the course as we have in the past. I'd rather be known as one of the safest and most profitable banks in the United States than one with problems losing millions of hard-earned money of the shareholders. We will grow when opportunities meet our standards for credit quality, pricing, and shareholder returns. We will stay the course, and you can back on that.

Regarding our large non-performing loan we've been discussing for several quarters, or our longstanding guidance has been we have no additional loss in the large Texas-C&I relationship, and in fact, we expect recoveries over time. There's been a lot of positive movement in this credit over the last 90 days. 80% of the assets of the company are under a signed asset purchase agreement that we expect to close tomorrow, next week, three weeks from now, but soon. And the remaining 20% have a preliminary agreement with only one contingency that will be resolved once the first part is sold and completed. So when the 80% sold, we understand the other 20% will come right after that.

We expect these transactions to close this quarter. The scheduled proceeds from these two sale transactions would result in a recovery over the current carrying balance. Remaining balance is owed, and the proceeds would be between the personal guarantors and HOME BANCSHARES. Profitability, as I said earlier, of our company, we had a 166 PPNR, and I think Stephen's going to cover most of those. We came out with a pretty good efficiency ratio of 40.84 for the quarter and a two-lead marl way, and that's without the Mountain Commerce conversion. Our non-performing ticked up a little bit, but that's not concerning to us at that. I think Chris had a little one that popped up, 11 or 12 million, and he's around to discuss if anybody wants to ask a question.

I'd like to say a special thanks to our team for continuing to produce better numbers almost every quarter in our 26-year life. We're honored to be a continuing top performer year in and year out. Donna, I think that's all the news I have because all the news I have was good and I have no bad news.

10:16

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Okay. Well, no bad news is good news.

10:16

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

So thank you, Johnny.

10:16

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Our next report comes from Stephen Sipton.

10:22

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Thanks, Donna. As Johnny mentioned, the third quarter of 2026 was another strong performance for HOME and Centennial Bank. Adjusted earnings were $129.1 million, an increase of $1 million from last quarter. Performance metrics are again top tier with a 2.11% return on assets and a 16.54% return on tangible common equity, which is on a TCE ratio of 13.48%. The reported net interest margin was 4.53%, an increase of two basis points from Q2. The core margin, excluding event income, was 4.50%, up three basis points from the prior quarter, and up four basis points year over year. The overall loan yield, excluding event income, averaged 6.91% and exited the quarter at 6.90%, while interest-bearing deposit costs averaged 2.37%.

Total deposit costs were 1.83% in Q3 and exited the quarter at 1.81%. Switching to the balance sheet, legacy deposit balances declined in Q3 by $358 million as a result of a decline in municipal deposit balances, quarterly tax payments in September, and the reduction of wholesale deposits from the MCB acquisition. We continue to focus on core deposit relationships in this extremely competitive rate environment. Non-interest-bearing balances now stand at $4.21 billion and account for over 22% of total deposits.

Loan production softened slightly in the third quarter to $850 million, reflective of our conservative approach to underwriting and discipline and pricing. Tennessee contributed nicely this quarter with almost $70 million in production. Payoff volume that we've discussed in the past materialized in Q3 with payoffs at $1.01 billion. Our pipeline for unfunded commitments remains strong at over $3.8 billion. As Johnny mentioned, tangible book value per share grew 3 cents to $15.35, despite a $65 million increase in AOCI and the share repurchases, a testament to the earnings power and stability of our company. Capital levels remain extremely strong, with common equity tier 1 capital ending at 16.7% and total risk-based capital at 19.4% and reserve to total loans of 1.93%.

We believe our balance sheet is well positioned to benefit from the recent move-in rates and from what looks to be additional rate hikes in the future. We have approximately $1.2 billion in fixed-rate loans maturing over the next 12 months at a weighted average rate of 5.72%, along with $7 billion in variable-rate loans. Asset liability modeling shows a nearly 6% increase in net interest income in an up-100 basis points scenario.

We are proud of the third quarter results here at HOME and look forward to another record year as we round out in 2026. With that said, I'll turn it back to you, Donna.

13:35

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Stephen. Kevin Hester will wrap up our prepared remarks with an update on lending.

13:35

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Thanks, Donna. Loan balances ended the quarter much better than we anticipated when we visited 90 days ago. We had some payoffs late in the quarter, but also held on to a few that we expected to pay off. Johnny says I'm not very good at forecasting loan balances, so I've got that going for me. I'm not sure if it's correct or not, but for what it's worth, this quarter looks How about the last year? For the last year, this year, we want to take the last year and that makes its growth as much better than the last. We continue to see sizable loan opportunities throughout our footprint, and we're encouraged by the effort that's given by our lenders.

Johnny commented on the large nonaccrual and while we hoped there to be a third resolution we very encouraged by the progress made recently And we believe that the proposed asset sales validate our underwriting and management of the credit Overall asset quality remains solid and while non-performing loans increase 11 basis points quarter over quarter, that increase is due to one CCFG loan that we expect to be resolved in this quarter, and Chris is on the call to provide more color on that. We remain focused on asset quality, profitability, and growth In that order. One thing I can confidently tell you from my 65 quarters leading the lending function of this company is that this is the only formula for long-term success in this industry.

Donna, I'll give it back to you.

15:04

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Kevin. Well, Johnny, before we go to Q&A, do you have any additional comments?

15:09

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Well, I think Stephen kind of hit that. Think about the quarter. We've got an ALCI mark of $65 million. We paid our new dividend, increased dividend, and we bought back 1.3 million shares, and we still grew tangible book value slightly. We didn't lose, the tangible book didn't go down. Banks sell on tangible book, and we still increased tangible book value per share. I'm very proud of that, and what that says is that HOME has amazing earnings power. That's what 211ROA will do for you. I really just want to thank the entire team for continuing to deliver outstanding results nearly every year for our 26-year history. HOME BANCSHARES has built a consistent record of top-performing bikes, and the performance reflects the discipline and dedication of our employees across the company.

This was another strong quarter for HOME BANCSHARES. We produced record earnings, meaningful capital to shareholders, maintained our balance sheet discipline, made encouraging progress on the large credit we've discussed. We remain focused on finishing the year out strong and delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

Past that, I think that's enough for me, Emma.

16:32

Donna TownsellSenior Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Okay, that sounds good. We will turn it over to Q&A.

Questions and answers

16:36

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimal sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question is from the line of Steve Skowkin from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Are you on Steven? As a reminder, please unmute your device. If he was going to be in kind of a rural area today, he may not be making connections. Let's move on. If he comes back, we'll handle it. How about that? Let's move on. Your next question is from the line of Woody Lay from KBW. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

18:03

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

Hey, good afternoon.

18:06

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Hey, welcome. Nice to have you, Woody.

18:09

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

I appreciate you all having me. I wanted to start on the net interest margin, and higher rates would seem to be a benefit for you all. I was just curious with the hike in September, how you've seen the NIM progress from there, and what incremental rate hikes could mean for the NIM going forward.

18:35

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Hey, Woody. This is Steven. Yeah, I guess the first part of your question, the core NIM, excluding event income, averaged four and a half for the quarter. In September, it was 455 in September. Obviously, the rate hike came halfway through the month there, so I think there may be a little bit of incremental benefit for us. And then just based on our ALCO modeling, like I said in the comments, we show I think it's 5.6% increase to NII and up 100 basis points scenario. That's kind of the way we think about it today. We're certainly in a competitive environment on loans and deposits, but if we're able to control that on the deposit side and get some lift out of these maturing loans over the next 12 months, I think there's a chance that it could potentially move a little higher from here.

19:32

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

Got it. That's helpful. And then, you know, I was curious on the growth front, you know, based on your opening comments, it seems like you're a little bit more optimistic on growth in the fourth quarter. I was curious, is that a reflection of competition slowing down? Is pricing becoming more rational? I'm just curious on your thoughts on what's driving that clear path to growth.

20:05

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

John, I'll take a little out and give it to Kevin after that. We lost about $500 and half a billion dollars in loans due to some unusual circumstances that hit the company over the past 18 months. They're gone now. Those unusual circumstances are gone, but we're back on the loan wagon today. We've got lots of good stuff working, and I think you'll see you'll be pleased. I will let Chris comment on it also.

20:42

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Yeah, Woody, I don't know that it may be saying that people are coming back to their senses with the 25 basis points that already occurred going up and the thought that there's probably 75 more coming. And that may be playing into where we're at. We're not 100% sure of that at this point, but there's certainly some good opportunities that we're looking at for this quarter, good sizable opportunities. And it's across the footprint. It's not all in one place. So we may look back in 90 days and say that, yeah, that is part of it. But I'm not 100% sure that's the case yet.

21:22

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

Got it. All right. Well, that's all for me. Thanks for taking my questions.

21:30

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

One more comment from me. We're seeing a lot of opportunities out there right now that really look good. I think you'll see coming through this. Chris, you want to comment on CCFG about what you're seeing?

21:45

Chris PoultonPresident

Sure, thanks. Well, it's a little slow, new origination-wise for us in the third quarter. I mean, I think we closed towards the end of the quarter. Other than two loans I hadn't closed, and we probably had zero in the pipeline. You know, no soft quotes, no term sheets. But I view that as a good thing. Ultimately, the market was in transition, and the market's got to catch up with us sometimes a little bit on feeling sour about things. But really, since the start of this quarter, I think people are starting to accept the way things are going to look going forward, rate-wise and such. And so we've seen a lot of pickup in the last couple of weeks, a lot of our existing clients, a lot of deals coming back our way that maybe went away for a little while, etc. But I think what we're hearing in general is it's pretty uncertain out there in uncertain times.

You know, our certainty is a virtue. So I like what we're seeing. Pipeline's filling back up, and hopefully it'll continue that way. But I feel good about things. It was a little bleak in the third quarter.

22:52

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

And then I guess actually just one quick follow-up. I mean, it sounds like pricing and spreads are a little bit incrementally positive. Just any sense on structurally? You know, I think last quarter you called out you're seeing some irrational structure in the marketplace, which was causing you to pull back. Are you still seeing any of that over the past quarter?

23:15

Chris PoultonPresident

Yeah, I don't think that that's necessarily changed any. I could believe that maybe pricing discipline is coming back a little bit more than I do structure discipline at this point.

23:31

Woody LayAnalyst, KBW

Got it. All right, well, thanks for taking my question.

23:33

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

You got it. Thanks.

23:37

Your next question is from the line of John Armstrong from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

23:45

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon.

23:45

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Good afternoon, Mr. Arstrom. Nice to have you with us.

23:45

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Thank you. Kevin, just one quick one on loan growth. You talked a little bit about late payoffs in the quarter. Can you help us kind of understand the size of that?

24:02

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

I would say the latter part of the quarter was $300 million or $400 million. Other than one that Johnny was talking about, the majority of that was just projects. We do a lot of construction and projects reach the time where they either sell or they move to permanent financing. That's what we were seeing in the third quarter. There was a lot of projects that needed to move on because it was time. One of those was unusual circumstances. Great credit, $170 million credit that we lost over unusual circumstances. Hopefully that's not repeatable.

24:52

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

I know we tease you guys on the loan growth projections, but it sounds pretty good from my point of view.

It's much better. It's much better.

25:01

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

I'm telling you, we're looking at some good opportunities.

25:09

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yep. Okay. Just two quick ones on credit. Chris, anything to note on the CFG non-performance? It sounds like that's going to be resolved, but anything on that? And then can you guys remind us of the size of the Texas resolutions and what kind of a step time we could see in the Texas non-accruals? Thanks.

25:35

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Chris, go ahead and take the first part, and I'll take the second.

25:39

Chris PoultonPresident

Okay. Yeah, the one loan that popped up is a little less than $15 million. It was a pre-development loan to a previous customer, and they had developed and done fine on that. So we did a pre-development loan form a couple years ago. It's an L. A. loan. It's entitled for residential, which L. A. needs. It was adjacent to the Eaton Fire area, so kind of northeast L. A. So they had asked for some accommodation on that right after the fires. We gave them that, gave them a little extension for that. But we've kind of gotten to the end of that, and we really needed to exercise our rights under the loan agreement to try to get resolution there.

So we started a foreclosure action at that maturity. Since that time, we've signed an LOI for the loan sale. We've put that a little bit on hold right now. We are continuing to work that, but our borrower's been in contact with us throughout. They've approached us in the last week or so with what they would need to do to reinstate that loan. And so we're going to give them kind of another five days or so here to come to us. We gave them a plan for reinstatement in the first stage of that over the next few days. And then there's about a 45-day period after that for them to fully do that.

You know, that's our preference. Our preferences work with our borrowers when they can come to the table. So we're going to give them an opportunity. We're going to try to give them an opportunity to do that. Hopefully that's the way that works. If it doesn't, we'll go forward with the LOI or we'll go forward with foreclosure and sell the property. But our hope right now is the borrower will be able to do what they've said they can do.

And on the large C&I credit, you got any more questions on that one, John?

27:29

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

Nope, nope. Just the Texas.

27:31

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Okay, on the large C&I credit, it's a two-piece sale. Sale number one is the marine equipment and floating stock. That brought 92% of appraisal. That's the bid. It's been purchased by New York Stock Exchange Company. The purchase agreement is signed. We're waiting on approval from the Coast Guard that the employees have transferred over, and the equipment will transfer over and wait on approval from the Coast Guard. That should bring in the $85 million range for us. The second part of that is basically the fuel tanks, and there is a $17.5 million bid on those. We should net about $16.5 out of that. So that brings us in $101, $102 million once that closes. The book balance, not the actual balance, but the book balance we have is $91 million.

So you see about a million recovery or loan loss reserve or whatever when that closes And the balance is what has been default interest that we have not recognized a penny of So it will be between the personal guarantors and HOME BANCSHARES is how we resolve whatever balance is out But you should see recoveries there Once we got a hold of the credit We re-underwrote the credit, and I have to congratulate our people on an outstanding job to get 92% of their prices. So I would have told you it would be gone by now, but sometime in the next couple of weeks, I would expect it to happen. We'll issue an 8K when that happens.

And we're buying a bottle, Stephen's buying a bottle of 25-year-old Whistlepig, and Donna's having a tent party in our parking lot. So we're going to be drinking Whistlepig and having a tent party out front here when we get final resolution. I think it's close.

29:57

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Close enough I can smell the whiskey, John.

30:01

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Man, I wish I could get an invitation, but...

30:04

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

John, expenses might be up a little bit in Q4.

30:11

John ArmstrongAnalyst, RBC Capital Markets

All right. All right. All right. Well, congratulations on that. That's a long time coming, but that'll be a nice step down. So thank you very much for the answers on that.

30:27

Your next question comes from the line of Brent Rabiton from Stone X Group. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

30:34

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Johnny, I wanted to ask, I know you were looking at a potential few transactions, and I kind of heard that a lot of folks are saying, well, the AOCI marks have risen so much that that's kind of changed the math for the short term, and so maybe M&A is tougher right now. I just wanted to hear if any of those three were looking like they might still be possible, and just what you're seeing out there. And then, you know, I get a lot of feedback from people saying, hey, Johnny, if Johnny wants a really good bank that's going to add some good assets, he might need to bend his triple accretion laws just a little bit.

So I was just hoping to get some color on those things.

31:28

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Well, we hadn't broken yet, right? One of these deals was just about two months diluted, you know, 30 minutes or a cup of coffee diluted, you know.

They've gone radio silent on me. I don't know what happened. I don't know what happened with that deal. I don't know. It was something that had a high level of interest to us, and it's just gone quiet. So I don't know where the bankers come in. I assume the bank will be back to us at some point in time, but that one just went quiet. One of them we pulled out on was two deals. One of them we pulled out on, and the bankers gone quiet and we only saw one. And so it's something that I think would be good for them and good for us. I think it would be a nice transaction for HOME to do.

And we spent a lot of time modeling it and playing with it, and we're willing to bid up for it. So as it turned out, I called a banker yesterday and told him to call me, and I hadn't heard anything from him. So it's kind of disappointing. I don't know if they used me as a stalking horse or what they did. But anyway, we'd like to put a transact together, and we're ready to do that. So we'll be working on – we're always working on – there's a lot of them out there right now, opportunities to do those transactions.

And our currency still is holding up fairly well. We got knocked down a little bit here. All the banks got knocked down recently. But I think we'll be back, and we'll be able to do trades here before we all. A little disappointing. That's a little disappointing that we hadn't brought that one closer to fruition, but if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. There's more out there, so we'll move on.

33:17

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Okay. That's helpful. I wish I'd told you we're done due diligence. One of them we did due diligence on, and we got inside the loan book. We decided that wasn't for us.

It was a tough deal to do anyway, and once we got in the loan book, we came out of it.

Okay. And second question is, what I'm gathering from the call, it sounds like there's some budding optimism for loan growth and production, but I didn't quite get it. It sounds like you also think that maybe the payoff challenge that you've had the past two quarters, is that dwindling down? And then I was just also kind of curious as it relates to that, if Shore Premier was still seeing demand or how that business would go with higher diesel prices and whatnot.

34:10

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Hey, Brett, this is Kevin. I'll take the payoff. There's still, it could be close to last quarter as far as the payoff number goes. We'll see how that plays out. I mean, you had some rollover into this quarter that we thought were going to happen last quarter, so that always happens when you're looking at folks that are selling properties or going and getting permanent financing. You know, it's hard to pinpoint exactly when that's going to happen, but there's still a little bit of...

However, from my aspect, I'm seeing better opportunities than I've seen in a while, so I think we can overcome those payoffs. And I'm not sure they have to come down substantially because we've taken so many so far this year. So hopefully we won't continue to see the big bites in the payoffs. Chris, you got anything big payoffs coming?

35:07

Chris PoultonPresident

I wouldn't say we have elevated. I mean, we always have payoffs. If I don't get payoffs, I get nervous.

35:19

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Okay, great. Appreciate all the color, guys.

35:19

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Go ahead.

35:19

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

I'm sorry, Johnny.

35:27

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

I said I'm ready for Pilots of Long Grove is what I'm ready for. Sounds good to me.

35:34

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Thanks, guys.

35:40

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Olney from Stevens. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

35:45

Matt OlneyAnalyst, Stephens

Hey, thanks, guys. Just a few follow-ups here on the margin. Deposit competition, great to see deposit costs move lower in the third quarter, especially with some of your peers moving higher. Curious just about depositor behavior following the Fed hike a few weeks ago, kind of what you're seeing more recently, and if the Fed continues to hike, kind of what your expectations are on depositor behavior.

36:15

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Hey Matt, this is Steven. You know, first part, competition is fierce, you know, in all of our markets, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Florida. You know, you've got different competitors in a lot of those markets, but you're seeing, you know, I got a text earlier this week in one of our markets, somebody was advertising four and a half on a, you know, 12 month CD. So you're seeing some of that stuff advertised. We've taken the same approach that we always have and negotiating one off and selling the strength and stability of the company.

And we'll get our shots along the way there. On depositor behavior from an interest rate standpoint, I don't know if I may be a little more aggressive on this last rate hike in terms of expectations of what we pass along. We model, I think, 40% beta on checking in savings accounts and 100 cities. Yeah, that's what we're working with our group on trying to kind of achieve overall. Some of the improvement in deposit rates for the quarter was kind of some of the outflows that we had on the municipal side. Most of those are tied to T-bills and index, so that's some of our higher cost funding that drew down some in the quarter.

37:42

Matt OlneyAnalyst, Stephens

Okay, appreciate that, Tipton. And then I guess another follow-up, Stephen, you mentioned the variable rate loans around $7 billion. Just want to make sure that's an all-in number, is that CCFG and the community bank? And just remind me, within that $7 billion, kind of the repricing timing as far as how quickly and how often those repriced.

38:09

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Sure, yeah. So that does include CCFG. That's what is set to or can adjust in Q3 or Q4. So, you know, the longer term stuff I'll call adjustable, right, that we have out there. But what we consider variable, you know, inside of, you know, call it six months or less. And some of that's daily, some of it's monthly, some of it's quarterly. Three and a half, about half of the seven, three and a half billion is tied to Wall Street Journal Prime and then 3.3 billion. And then we've got some other indices for the balance of it.

38:45

Matt OlneyAnalyst, Stephens

Got it. Okay, guys. Thanks for your help. It's all for me.

38:51

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Matt.

38:53

Your next question is from the line of Michael Rose from Raymond James. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

39:01

Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to go back to Mountain Commerce. I think the conversion, systems conversion, is coming up here next month. Any changes to cost savings expectations or any of the deal-related math, Stephen?

39:24

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

No, no. We're set for November the 6th of the weekend of. We've already probably achieved a little bit of the cost savings along the way since 4-1, But come November the 6th or the week after, we will begin to see the realization of some of those from what be it staffing or DP and other types of opportunities there. So no change and still estimate was I think a little over 5 million on an annualized basis is what we I will now turn the call over to management for the next year.

40:29

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

We've put about just short of six, I think. We've bought 400,000 shares a quarter to date so far.

40:38

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, a quarter to date we've bought 400, so that's 3.7. We're still in there, and hopefully we'll pick up a million or so this quarter. We'll just keep on. We'll quite get it all done maybe by the end of the year, but maybe by the first half of next year we'll have it all bought by.

40:58

Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James

All right, that's helpful.

41:02

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Do you think the shareholder yield is important, Michael?

41:10

Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James

Do I? Yeah, I mean, I think you guys have a lot of capital, and deploying that capital through different buybacks and opportunistic M&A, I think, is what we all want to hear and see. You guys do, what you've done historically, so keep it up.

41:27

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Thank you.

41:28

Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James

Maybe one last, just one for me, just on the environment. Any areas in credit that are kind of peaking your interest at this point? We've heard some scuttle around some of the restaurant groups and maybe some leisure and hospitality. Just anything you're watching a little bit more closely here. Thanks.

41:51

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

I don't know. We don't. Not really. We don't see any. If you're looking for a segment or a problem somewhere out there, I don't know if there's any widespread problems. Some of the Texas credits created that we've been spent the last, people fussed at us about growth. We've been busy cleaning up that Texas stuff for three years, and all we got left maybe is a few hotels that give us a little problem. But overall, asset quality, other than we don't have any problems, we have these asset quality meetings, and Texas takes two hours, and Florida takes 10 minutes, and Arkansas takes 10 minutes, and we just don't have any problems in those markets. So anyway, we're continuing to work on those, but I don't see any segments anywhere.

We resolved our big credit in Texas, which we think will resolve soon, and our reserve non-performer jumped over 300%. So I think you can expect that coming pretty quick. So asset quality overall is pretty good.

43:06

Michael RoseAnalyst, Raymond James

All right, that's great to hear.

43:11

I step back and thank you to Tracy today Sorry for you guys lost Thank you I think we all in the cinema cinema today Thanks again guys Appreciate it You bet Appreciate it Thank you Your next question is from the line of Dave Rochester from Cantor. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

43:32

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Back on the deposit discussion, given that the incremental aggressiveness you guys had mentioned on the depositor front, How are you guys thinking about a return to deposit growth in 4Q? Are you confident in that, and do you think you can fund the loan growth you're expecting with deposit growth next quarter?

43:56

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Hey, Dave. This is Stephen. That would certainly be the goal. We talked about the competitive environment, some seasonality in the last quarter. We would expect to see some of the municipal balances return there. We're talking at loan committees constantly about opportunities to get deposits with loan opportunities that come across in order to help fund that. Separate and apart from that, we've got $4.9 billion in capacity with the Federal Home Loan Bank. We've got a good cash position today. We've got securities portfolio that comes off about $30 million a month. So, you know, not concerned from a liquidity standpoint. I think, you know, historically the approach has been to use some of those avenues and take our time and pick our spots as opposed to, you know, being out here and having to run CD ads to raise funding.

44:57

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Yeah. Appreciate that. And then can you just give an update on where the spot price for deposits is at quarter end and where you guys are seeing new money post the hike?

45:09

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, so total deposit cost ended it. Their average 183 for the quarter, 181 for September. You know, I see our CD and money market negotiations every day. You know, our folks are doing a good job. You know, we may have to pay 4% here or there with the customer just because, you know, the bank down the street's running an ad at 420 for seven or eight months. But our folks do a good job in negotiating down into the low and mid threes. So I guess mid threes is kind of where we're thinking about opportunities today.

45:52

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Okay. And then just switching gears to the fee side of things, there was a little bit of volatility in trust fees this quarter. I was just wondering what the driver that was, and how should we think about that line rebounding going into 4Q next year?

46:09

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, some of it's seasonality in terms of when our annual trust fees are charged. Q3 is generally a little bit of a light quarter there for trust. Then mortgage and CCFG fee income were a little bit light this quarter as well.

46:31

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Do you feel pretty good about that bouncing back next quarter?

46:35

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, I mean, I think if you look over the last six quarters, you know, we've averaged about $50 million just shy in non-interest income, and we would expect to see us migrate back closer to that number.

46:51

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Yeah.

46:52

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

I think you heard me say that the good news is we got customers that do real business, not just transactions. The bad news is that they make a lot of money and they pay a lot of tax. We get hammered on the quarter. But it comes back. It's coming back.

47:08

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Good. All right. Maybe one last one on expenses. Some good expense control this quarter you guys showed. Is this a good run rate to kind of finish out the year, and what are your thoughts on expense growth next year?

47:22

Brian DavisChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

We haven't done a budget for next year yet.

47:22

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

I guess that's coming pretty quick isn't it, Brian? You may be working on it now, right?

47:33

Brian DavisChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

We're kind of waiting for Mountain Commerce to get converted.

47:36

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Okay.

47:36

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

So we don't have next year's. If I'm running it, it'll be less than it is this year. But anyway, Steven's smiling, pal.

47:50

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, I mean you've got some inflationary pressure, but we've also had some things set up throughout the year where whether it's physical space leases that we've been able to kind of work space down, we'll begin to see some of that benefit in Q4. Some of the lower performing segments that we have, we're taking a look at what opportunities may be there for cost savings. You've got the Mountain Commerce cost savings that we'll get some of in Q4. Some of that should offset inflationary pressures this quarter and next year.

48:30

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Okay, so maybe a flattish kind of number that making this run rate this quarter good for next quarter.

48:41

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

For Q4, that's probably fair.

48:46

Dave RochesterAnalyst, 一般

Yeah. All right. 121. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks. Yeah. Yep. Sounds good.

48:52

Thanks for all the callers. Your next question comes from the line of Ed Najarian from Havdi Group. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

49:07

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Good afternoon, guys. My questions have mostly been asked and answered. Just a real quick one. How do you think about the sort of the juxtaposition again about around deposit pricing? On the one hand, it's great to keep deposit pricing low, creates that wide NIM, and great returns, and love that you're giving back tons of capital to shareholders and keep buying back stock. But do you feel like you're going to have to raise deposit rates kind of along some reasonable deposit beta with the increase in the Fed funds rate? Are you going to continue to try to really keep them restrained and not raise them much as we continue to get rate increases here? I guess the real question is, how should we think about deposit beta with you guys around Fed funds rate increases?

50:00

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

If we're forced to raise rates, if we're forced, we will. I don't remember what our deposit beta was as rates ran up to the 60s. Do you remember what our cost of funds got up to 2-something, LL1-2? I'm going to turn it over to the HOME BANCSHARES in the HOME BANCSHARES.

50:23

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

I mean, we've already passed, when the Fed hike 25 a month ago, we've got a product that is kind of loosely indexed to Fed funds that those customers have that expectation. We passed 25 on to them there. We've got some negotiated products that our folks know who they've got to deal with and pass, whether it's 40% of that on or 100% of the rate increase on depending on a customer-by-customer basis. So we handle that two days after the Fed raised rates, and things will kind of settle in from there until the next rate hike.

51:06

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Okay. All right. That's helpful. Thanks. Good quarter, guys. Appreciate it.

51:12

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Thank you.

51:16

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Martin from Breen Capital. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

51:23

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Just maybe a couple of follow-ups on some items from me. Just on the credit front, outside of the Texas credit you've talked about, any other expectations in terms of, you know, I will now turn the call over to the next quarter, and I will now turn the call over to the next quarter. I will now turn the call over to the next quarter.

51:45

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Hey, Brian, this is Kevin. There is always some movement. You hope it happens quicker than it did, but these things take some time when they are where they are. That's by far the largest one we have, and we'll cut it in half. So when you get back to there, we were at a pretty low number when you take half of that out. We're at a pretty low number, and it's just things that you have to kind of work through.

52:14

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Got you. Okay. Incremental progress, but nothing imminent. Yeah, got you. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, Kevin. And then just on with the improvement with the Texas credit, I know the provision this quarter obviously was zero. Just in terms of how to think about kind of near-term provisioning or given the recoveries in the Texas cleanup, you know, I guess any sense as we go into fourth quarter and first quarter how to think about that provisioning line?

52:43

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

Yeah, Steve and I look at each other. I think we both have the same answer, which based on what Johnny said earlier, I think we would expect not to have any provision this quarter.

52:53

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Yeah, okay. And that could carry in.

52:56

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Brian and Steven, we actually, we've already got a decent recovery the first week of this month from a charge-off that we had in the first quarter of this year. So we're sitting in a recovery position nicely right now. Assuming, you know, we get some of the recoveries we would expect, I think you'd see reserve coverage, you know, grow nicely and not need to provision anything.

53:23

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Got you. Okay, and that could bleed into early next year based on kind of the trends we're seeing, it sounds like. I mean, at least lower zero, whatever the level is, that's big picture how to think about the next couple quarters.

53:38

Kevin HesterPresident & Chief Lending Officer

That's fair.

53:39

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah.

53:39

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Okay. And just the last couple, Stephen, I think your comments on the margin, it sounds, you know, given the deposit cost outlook, and I don't know what the new loan yields are coming on today, but the margin is more relatively stable than, you know, rising given a couple rate hikes. Is that how to think about it at this point?

54:03

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, I think so. I mean, like I said, we actually did the quarter at $4.55 on a non-event income basis, and I think if we can run in that range, the $4.5 range, maybe a little higher, we'd be certainly pleased.

54:23

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Gotcha. Okay, and the new loan yields today are comparable to where they have been?

54:28

J. Stephen TiptonChief Operating Officer and CEO of Centennial Bank

Yeah, we, the 850 in production this quarter was at, I think it's 695. So, you know, at the time, you know, for most of the quarter, you know, a little above prime, so.

54:43

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Gotcha. Okay, and the last couple, on the M&A side, Johnny, it sounds like certainly looking, but it doesn't feel like anything's imminent near term in terms of M&A, just, you know, kind of plot along here and look at the opportunities.

54:58

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

I think that's fair. I'm looking for one. I'm ready to do one. We're ready to do one. If it makes sense, we're ready to do one. We've got some opportunities out there. I was kind of hanging on this one because I really wanted to do that trade, and I guess it just went away. I had the microphone that had never called me back to tell me where it was, so I don't know if he lost his phone or what happened. You know, something happened.

Anyway, there's another one out there we'll go to work on, so see if we can put it together.

55:37

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Yeah. Okay. And then I think you mentioned, Johnny, the buybacks. I mean, obviously getting back to Mountain Commerce, but it sounded like your commentary was more that, you know, I'm suggesting it may not be as interesting or likely to continue into next year. Did I hear that wrong?

55:55

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

You heard it wrong. We've been buying stock for years and we'll continue to buy stock.

56:03

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

I know. I wanted to clarify that.

56:07

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Well, you know, either Stephen or I, we'll get out of the market and somehow take our stock down a dollar. And I say, Stephen, he said, I'm already buying. I'm already in there. I'm already in there this morning. I said, okay, just keep buying it. They don't want to take it down, just buy it.

56:22

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

All right. I'm just making sure you weren't leaning towards your wife and raising the dividend more. So I appreciate all the color.

56:31

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

She texted me a while ago. She's just thanking me for mentioning her on the call and letting everybody know that she's supportive. She wants another one tomorrow, but we're going to have to wait a little bit.

56:41

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

All right. Well, thank you. Thanks for all the color, guys. I appreciate the update.

56:48

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

All right. Appreciate it.

56:52

There are no further questions at this time. We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Allison for closing remarks.

57:00

John AllisonChairman of the Board and CEO

Thank you. Hopefully, we keep rolling the way we're rolling. We'll hit the 500 million, or y'all call me sometime, it doesn't sound better to say half a billion. What does it think, buddy? Half a billion. Half a billion. We started as Michael couldn't spell billion, so now we're halfway there. Anyway, thank you all for your support. I think things have been, we've really had a good strong year this year, and I think we're going to wrap the year up fairly strong too, so thanks everyone. Talk to you in 90 days.

57:40

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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