MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript

Transcript, summary, guidance, and what analysts pressed on from the MGP Ingredients Inc. call on July 29, 2026.

Held
July 29, 2026
Length
46 min
Tone
Mildly positive0.35
Analysts
5
Words
6,693
2026 net sales guidance
$480 to $500 millionreaffirmed
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance
$90 to $98 millionreaffirmed
2026 capex
approximately $20 millionfull year
2026 Branded Spirits A&P
approximately 13 to 14 percentof Branded Spirits sales
Brand rationalization
52 brands; approximately 47%about 1% of segment sales
Net barrel inventory put-away
$13 million to $18 millionbranded and distilling
Industry trailing 12-month production
down roughly 28% year over yearlowest run rate since 2018
2027 Ingredient Solutions gross margin
around the low 20sby year-end

Summary

Management framed the quarter as evidence that branded spirits and ingredient demand are holding up, while distributor transitions and cost initiatives offset difficult whiskey conditions.

  • 47%52 brands rationalized, representing approximately 47% of the product portfolio and about 1% of branded spirits sales.
  • 10 markets transitioned to RNDC replacement partner RNDC?
  • 7%No: Raised Beverage Group, with first-month depletions up 7% in premium plus and 4% in mid-tier.
  • Ingredient waste-disposal costs remain elevated through year-end; management said reliability and throughput have improved, but the 2026 margin outlook was reduced.
  • The company said whiskey customers remain focused on inventory reduction, with no evidence yet of a sharp industry recovery.

Guidance

  • $500M2026 net sales $480–$500 million
  • $98M2026 adjusted EBITDA $90–$98 million
  • $20M2026 capex approximately $20 million
  • 13%2026 Branded Spirits A&P approximately 13% to 14% of Branded Spirits sales
  • Q3 profitability affected by ingredient waste-disposal costs
  • Q4 expected to be stronger relative to Q3
  • 2027 Ingredient Solutions gross margin around the low 20s by year-end

What analysts pressed on

  • 01Innovation cadence: management called the quarter strong but said innovation will be about 15% lower over the next couple quarters.
  • 02Distribution runway: management cited a 3X to 6X disadvantage in average items at national and regional accounts and said expansion opportunity remains.
  • 03Distilling visibility: customers remain focused on reducing inventory and preserving working capital, without making new long-term distillate commitments.
  • 04Ingredient margins: management expects waste-stream headwinds through year-end and outlined dryer, disposal-efficiency, and process improvements toward 2027.
  • 05Industry cycle: updated TTV data showed production down roughly 28% and bottling demand down approximately 9%; management sees gradual rationalization, not sharp recovery.
  • 06Ready-to-drink strategy: management said launches will be measured and did not quantify future scale beyond seven SKUs and 2.4 share.

Notable disclosures

  • 15%15% of Branded Spirits A&P is now targeted toward digital, versus zero last year.
  • Seven ready-to-pour SKUs have a 2.4 share, with four Penelope offerings.
  • 25 bpsPortfolio rationalization is expected to improve analyzed gross margin by approximately 25 basis points and top-line performance by 42 basis points.
  • $13MManagement said branded spirits put-away and distilling put-away together are expected to increase net barrel inventory by $13 million to $18 million.

Risks raised

  • Distilling customers are reducing inventories and avoiding new long-term distillate commitments amid oversupply and tighter inventory financing.
  • Ingredient Solutions waste-stream disposal and implementation costs are higher than expected and are expected to pressure profitability through year-end.
  • Industry bottling demand was down approximately 9%, with weak exports attributed partly to tariffs and international trade flows.
  • RNDC's bankruptcy resulted in a $2.1 million credit loss provision and distributor transitions remain underway in some markets.

Tone: Mildly positive 0.35

Management highlighted branded momentum and reaffirmed consolidated guidance, but persistent whiskey oversupply and ingredient disposal costs tempered confidence.

Who spoke

Company

  • Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer
  • Brandon GallChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Analysts

  • Seamus CassidyAnalyst, TD Cowen
  • Sean McGowanAnalyst, Roth Capital Partners
  • Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant
  • Ben KlieveAnalyst, Benchmark StoneX
  • Marc TorrenteAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Full transcript

Analyst questions are marked with a bar. Timestamps are into the recording.

Prepared remarks

00:00

Good morning, and welcome to the MGP INGREDIENTS second quarter 2026 earnings conference call with Julie Francis, President and CEO, and Brandon Gall, CFO. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please also note this event is being recorded today. In addition, this call may involve certain forward-looking statements. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including the risk factors described in the company's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call, except as required by law. This call will contain references to certain non-GAAP measures, which the company believes are useful in evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is included in today's earnings release, which was issued this morning before the markets opened and is available at www. mgpingredients. com. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Julie Francis, President and CEO of MGP INGREDIENTS. Please go ahead.

01:53

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. I'd like to thank you all for joining us today on our second quarter 2026 earnings call. For the second quarter, sales came in at $124.4 million, down versus the prior year as expected, adjusted EBITDA of $27.6 million, and adjusted basic EPS of $0.72 also declined versus the second quarter of last year. However, both of these key metrics were ahead of our expectations. These results reflected continued momentum in our premium plus portfolio, led by Penelope Bourbon and Yellowstone, and an improvement in select mid and value price brands. We also delivered sales growth in ingredient solutions against our best quarter of 2025, which reflects continued strong customer demand, supported by improved operational reliability and inventory availability.

In a challenging environment, our Distilling Solutions team delivered both lower distillation costs and favorable sales price and mix, resulting in gross margin expansion versus the prior year. We are pleased with this performance as it reflects the success of the actions we took during the second quarter to execute against our strategic roadmap. It also demonstrates the positive impact of our efforts to strengthen and revamp our sales, marketing, and supply chain functions, while adding specific capabilities across all levels of the company to address new and existing growth opportunities.

We also continue to direct progress across the business by eliminating waste, driving efficiencies, and maximizing effectiveness through the implementation of our ownership cost management initiative, which I've discussed in previous calls. While we'll talk more about our segment performance later in the call, I'd like to take a few moments to update you on the progress we have made with our key initiatives. As I've mentioned previously, we have been strengthening our core by adding specific capabilities to our leadership team. Yesterday, we announced four strategic appointments designed to expand our commercial and marketing excellence across Distilling Solutions, Brand and Spirits, and overall MGP. Tom Nihals joins us as Vice President to lead Distilling Solutions Sales. For brand experience, Saul Clayhane is now serving as Managing Director and Leader of National Accounts, while Marilyn Chen has taken the role of Brand Director to lead the marketing efforts behind Penelope Bourbon.

On the corporate side, David Sanders has joined us as Vice President to lead enterprise financial planning and analysis. Together, these appointments expand our leadership and expertise across customer strategy, national retail and on-premise partnerships, brand marketing and planning, as well as reinforce our focus on driving growth across our business and executing against our strategic roadmap. Before turning to our business segments, I want to address the recent distributor news regarding RNDC's bankruptcy filing.

Since the beginning of the year, we have known about RNDC's financial challenges, and while the bankruptcy has a financial impact, which Brandon will cover in his remarks, I want to highlight the significant progress we've made strengthening our national distribution network and expanding our route-to-market capabilities. The team has been executing a disciplined transition strategy, conducting extensive market-by-market distributor assessments, and carefully evaluating each market's unique dynamics. Through this process, they successfully identified, vetted, and validated new distribution partners to ensure business continuity and position the portfolio for future growth. That preparation is already impacting results. During June, we successfully transitioned 10 markets to raised beverage group with minimal changes to our route-to-market model and disruption to customers or field operations.

Just as importantly, the partnership is generating early positive momentum. During the first month of operation, depletions in our premium plus and mid-tier portfolios increased 7% and 4% respectively. While we are encouraged by this early success, our work is not yet complete. We are currently progressing through various stages of distributor transition for certain open and control states, with many transitions targeted to go live later this quarter. Together with our new distributor partners, we will concentrate on expanding distribution, elevating in-store execution, and accelerating growth across our premium plus portfolio.

Now turning to our business segments, I'll begin with Brandon Spirits, our primary long-term growth platform. The second quarter provided another strong proof point that our strategy is working, and our initiatives are strengthening performance despite a challenging industry backdrop. Throughout the quarter, we continued to outperform the broader spirits category by accelerating growth in our premium plus portfolio while stabilizing our mid- and value-tier price brands. At the same time, we remained focused on building the capabilities needed to sustain long-term growth, including digital marketing, trade marketing, national accounts, and on-premise execution. While reported sales were modestly below prior year, excluding sales of our other products category, which primarily consists of contract bottle products sold in Europe, our branded spirit sales increased 3% compared to prior year.

This performance exceeded both Nielsen industry trends, which declined 2% during the quarter, and NAPCA trends, which were down 3%. Our premium plus portfolio grew 5% in the quarter, significantly outperforming both Nielsen and NAPCA, which were down 3% and 5% respectively. We also delivered approximately 1% growth in our mid- and value price brands, comparing favorably to declines of 2% at Nielsen and 4% at NAPCA. These results reflect the strength of our portfolio and the effectiveness of our brand building and revenue growth management, or RGM, initiatives. Profitability also continued to improve. Second quarter gross margin expanded 20 basis points to 53%, driven by favorable portfolio mix and early benefits from our RGM efforts. Gross profit totaling $31.6 million was below prior years, resulting from the anticipated decline in our other products category.

Overall, we are encouraged by the continued momentum in branded spirits and believe our portfolio remains well positioned to deliver differentiated growth while gaining share in a difficult operating environment. Let's take a moment to focus on our Premium Plus portfolio, which continued to be a key growth engine during the quarter, led by Penelope, Yellowstone, and Everclear. Penelope's sales increased 13% despite cycling the highly successful launch of Weedit in the prior year period. Thank you. Limited time offerings of Penelope Rivera and Architects of Golf. Yellowstone delivered another exceptional quarter. With sales increasing 54%, growth was driven by innovation, including our recent limited time release commemorating the United States' 250th anniversary, as well as improved performance of Yellowstone Select in targeted markets supported by increased marketing investment and RGM initiatives.

Everclear grew 13%, reflecting increased consumer engagement in key consumption occasions and continued strength in the brand's core positioning. Turning to our mid-price portfolio, stabilization efforts continued to gain traction. Growth was led by Exotico, Juarez Tequila, and Ezra Brooks, and driven by improved distribution, targeted price actions, and successful distributor transitions and focused brand support. Overall, these results reinforce our confidence that the portfolio is becoming increasingly more balanced, with growth in premium-plus brands complemented by improving performance across our larger heritage brands.

Another important strategic initiative is portfolio optimization. During our last earnings call, we discussed plans to rationalize lower-priority brands and SKUs to improve focus and profitability. I'm pleased to report that we've exceeded our original expectations. As of the second quarter, we have rationalized 52 brands, representing approximately 47% of our product portfolio. While these brands account for approximately 1% of sales, this effort is expected to improve analyzed gross margin by approximately 25 basis points, while also enhancing top-line performance, estimated to be 42 basis points, through improved commercial focus. Beyond the direct and readily visible P&L benefits, this initiative is creating enterprise value by simplifying operations, improving inventory management, and driving working capital efficiencies across the business.

Expanding distribution remains a key strategic priority and an important source of future growth. During the quarter, we grew our national and regional chains off-premise points of distribution by 7% and on-premise points of distribution by 4% sequentially. For these same customers our premium plus portfolio grew off points of distribution by 14 and grew on by 10 sequentially Overall we are encouraged on the show We will now turn the call over to management for prepared remarks. Thank you. This includes opportunistic aged whiskey sales, premium white goods offerings such as premium GNS and gin, and other services that help customers improve profitability, optimize inventory, and support their broader business objectives.

While brown goods sales declined approximately 59% in the quarter versus the prior year, we are seeing encouraging progress in several targeted initiatives. We continue to expand our presence in private label whiskey, and the significant national private label customer we discussed last quarter has increased its business beyond the original demand levels communicated to us. We're also focused on driving cash generation by expanding our portfolio of value-added services and strengthening customer retention.

Warehouse services represent approximately 30% of distilling solution sales during the quarter, with both sales and gross profit increasing versus the prior year. While industry conditions remain challenging, we believe our customer relationships, commercial capabilities, aged WSFI expertise, and expanding service offerings position us well to capitalize when the market ultimately normalizes. Turning now to ingredient solutions. Demand across our specialty ingredient portfolio remains healthy. During the quarter, specialty starch sales, including Fibersen, increased 2%, and we continue to ship all available production to meet customer demand. Our specialty protein platform marketed under Arise also grew, benefiting from favorable mix and pricing.

These results underscore the continued demand for high protein, high fiber, and nutrient-dense food products. Trends such as GLP-1 adoption, lower net carb diets, and protein-focused nutrition continue to drive innovation across bakery, snack, and meal solution categories. For the second quarter, ingredient solution sales increased 2% to $35.5 million, despite lapping a particularly strong prior comparison. Growth was driven by favorable pricing and mix within our specialty protein and specialty starch portfolios, as well as improved sales of biofuel and other co-products as operational performance stabilized. These results also reflected an addition of four significant new national customers. While revenue trends remain encouraging, profitability continues to be impacted by elevated waste starch disposal costs associated with the transition following the closure of the Atchison Distilling and startup of the biofuel facility.

As a result, gross profit declined to $3.6 million, and gross margin was 10.1% during the quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the team has significantly improved operational reliability and reduced unplanned downtime, resulting in higher production throughput. While these improvements are encouraging, they also generated greater waste start stream during the first half than initially anticipated. Through various engineering solutions, the team successfully reduced waste volumes during the second quarter. These solutions have proven to be more cost-effective than traditional waste disposal methods and reduced reliance on third-party providers. However, implementation costs were higher during the quarter than originally expected. While we expect these costs to improve over time as our processes are further optimized, the impact is reflected in our updated full-year ingredient solutions margin outlook and incorporated into our 2026 guidance.

15:56

Brandon GallChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

With that, I will turn the call over to Brandon. Thank you, Julie. Turning now to our financial results. For the second quarter of 2026, we reported consolidated sales of $124.4 million, which were down 15% versus the prior year period. Gross profit of $46.5 million was down 20%. Both metrics were lower versus the prior year, primarily due to expected declines in brown goods sales in discount solutions. This was partially offset by higher ingredient solution sales. Consolidated gross margin of 37.4% declined by approximately 270 basis points, as higher waste start stream costs in green solutions pressured overall profitability.

Both branded spirits and distilling solutions saw gross margin expansion in the quarter relative to prior year. Branded spirits' advertising and promotion expenses decreased by approximately 12% year-over-year and represented 9.3% of branded spirits sales. Primarily due to the timing of spend throughout the year. For the full year, we continue to expect Branded Spirits A&P to be approximately 13 to 14 percent of Branded Spirits sales. Our total SG&A spend declined by 13 percent in the second quarter, while adjusted SG&A declined by 19 percent, with both amounts showing the benefit of our expanded cost savings efforts. These SG&A savings were partially offset by a $2.1 million credit loss provision taken in the quarter relating to the RNDC Chapter 11 filing.

Net income of $12 million was down 17% versus the prior year, while adjusted net income of $15.8 million decreased 25% on a year-over-year basis. Earnings per share for the second quarter were $0.55 versus $0.67 in the prior year. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share of 72% decreased 26% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $27.6 million decreased 23% over the same period. Capital expenditures declined 66% to $6.4 million on a year-to-date basis. We continue to estimate capex of approximately $20 million for the full year as we look to optimize our capital deployment in the current industry environment. As of June 30th, our net debt leverage ratio was approximately three and a half times, up from 2.1 times at the end of March.

This expected increase was primarily due to the Penelope earn-out payment of approximately $111 million, which was made during the second quarter. Turning to annual guidance, we are reaffirming our expectations for 2026 net sales to be between $480 and $500 million. Adjusted EBITDA is still projected to range from $90 to $98 million. This is consistent with previous expectations, as the efficiencies and savings from our recently implemented ownership cost management mindset initiative are expected to offset our reduced gross profit outlook and ingredient solutions in our branded spirit second quarter provision for credit loss. Adjusted basic ETFs for 2026 is still expected to be between $1.50 and $1.80, with weighted average shares outstanding remaining at approximately $21.4 million.

We now expect our full-year 2026 effective tax rate will be approximately 23% due to a recent revision to 2025 Kansas State law, which resulted in a favorable revaluation of certain deferred tax liabilities.

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow outlook, we maintain our expectations for full-year 2026 operating cash flow of $50 million to $55 million and free cash flow of $30 million to $35 million. Both of these exclude the impact of the Penelope earn-out payment. We anticipate our net leverage ratio will peak during the third quarter. We continue to estimate net whiskey put away in the $13 million to $18 million range for 2026, which includes both new production and procurement of barrels. From a business segment perspective, our four-year segment outlook for distilling solutions is consistent with previously shared estimates, with sales down approximately 35% and gross profit down approximately 40%. Our full-year sales outlook of $140 million to $150 million for ingredient solutions reflects strong growth as we expect improved year-over-year reliability and throughput gains from our operational initiatives.

However, due to increased waste start stream costs, we now anticipate ingredient solutions' gross margins to be in the high single to low double-digit range for the full year. Our four-year segment outlook for branded spirits is unchanged as we continue to expect sales declines of mid-single digits with slight gross margin improvement.

To close, I'd like to reiterate Julie's previous comments. As we move through the second half of 2026, we will maintain our strategic roadmap and continue to drive our key growth initiatives while prioritizing our best opportunities for growth. We won't stop taking the decisive actions that are key to the company's long-term growth, and we will continue to execute with discipline. And with that, I'd like to turn it back over to Julie.

21:31

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Brandon. Before we wrap up, I want to thank the entire MGP team for another quarter of execution, performance, impact, and care, and for their hard work and commitment to deliver against our strategic roadmap. This strategic roadmap is designed to drive growth across all three businesses. For our branded spirits, we will continue to focus on winning in the premium plus category with Penelope Bourbon, while strengthening our overall brand focus. We will prioritize our best-performing brands and plan to rationalize approximately 47% of our product portfolio.

We will also strive to increase our penetration in national accounts and to strengthen our digital marketing capabilities. For distilling solutions, we will remain focused on rebuilding our aged whiskey pipeline while broadening our premium white goods offerings to complement our brown goods portfolio. We will also continue to work on attracting and retaining a wider pool of customers by growing our private label and international whiskey programs and by expanding our value-added service offerings. We are pleased to have an industry veteran join us who is immediately engaging in the business and with customers. And for ingredient solutions our efforts will remain focused on driving growth through our industry specialty fiber and specialty protein product offerings We expect to continue our operational reliability enhance inventory availability and to make continuous improvements across the segment Managing high waste disposal costs will remain a key priority for this business Looking ahead I encouraged by the progress we are making across our organization As I stated earlier our strategy remains grounded in focus execution discipline and accountability We actively evaluating all levers to operate more efficiently and effectively While the industry outlet remains challenging, we are committed to addressing our challenges in order to position MGP to emerge as a better aligned and more resilient company that is capable of delivering long-term value creation.

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for any questions.

Questions and answers

23:29

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Seamus Cassidy with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

24:07

Seamus CassidyAnalyst, TD Cowen

Spirits, you mentioned some strong innovation and distribution gains that help drive growth for some of your brands this quarter. So I guess two part question. One, would you characterize this quarter as above average in terms of innovation, or is the pipeline fairly well balanced throughout the year? And then two, what's the runway for distribution expansion going forward? And I guess thus far, how have your teams sort of been successful in realizing these distributions? Thanks.

24:37

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Seamus, it's Julie. The very first part of your question was cut off, so I just want to make sure that we have exactly what you said, because you didn't start right away.

24:52

Seamus CassidyAnalyst, TD Cowen

Yeah, sorry. I was just saying strong innovation and distribution gains drove the growth, so I guess is this quarter above average in terms of innovation, or is the pipeline fairly well balanced?

25:04

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, gotcha. Well, first and foremost, appreciate you joining the call. And yes, this quarter we were certainly pleased with our brand spirits performance, really driven by our premium plus portfolio. Yes, we certainly did have innovation in the quarter. So it was a strong quarter on innovation, but we had a strong quarter last year as well. If you recall, Penelope, I scripted Marks, Penelope was up 13% in the quarter, and we were lapping 100% up last year. So very pleased with the team. We are demonstrating that we can cycle very good innovation with new innovation as well. And in the quarter, we did launch in Penelope two new core expressions, Kentucky straight bourbon and also everyday rye.

And so now we have a core lineup, all of which are under $40 that we have to put on the shelves. And then we'll continue to, you know, certainly spice in those limited time offerings that the Penelope core consumer certainly does appreciate. But I would say that innovation, we're pretty measured over the next couple quarters, and we did have a lot of innovation last year. So we're doing about, I'd say about 15% less innovation. But again, it's better. We have digital investment behind it, and so we feel very bullish that the innovation that we are bringing to the market is working. Ready to pours was another opportunity that we saw in the product roadmap that we weren't participating in as effectively as we should.

And now we're up to seven RTPs, four of which are in Penelope. We did launch BlackBerry in the quarter as well. And so far, those seven SKUs, we already have a 2.4 share. So certainly pleased with the performance. Great. And then just the runway for distribution expansion for the Branded Spirits portfolio. Yeah, that's great. Yeah, we certainly in the national and regional accounts, I think you've seen the numbers. We're very pleased with the expansion and what we're seeing there. And we do think there's more opportunity. We did recently announce, you know, I would say a seasoned 30 plus year industry vet to come lead the national accounts. We do think that we're under indexed in both regional and national, so that runway certainly is there, and I think we've said before, we have anywhere between a 3X to 6X disadvantage in average number of items in national and regional accounts, so we're certainly very pleased with the performance, but we certainly think there's a bigger runway to be had.

27:38

Seamus CassidyAnalyst, TD Cowen

Great, thank you.

27:39

Next, we have Mark Torrente with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

27:47

Marc TorrenteAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning, and thank you for the questions. First, this was another quarter of solid results versus expectations, yet you still reaffirmed the guide. You called out ingredient solutions costs as an offset. Any other changes to your outlook for the other segments or those progressing the plan? Progressing the plan, and how are you thinking about cadence for the remainder of the year?

28:12

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I'll take that first part and let Brandon talk about the cadence. But, you know, as you saw, Brandon Spears, we certainly have confirmed our full segment outlook, and we've also done that with distilling solutions. And I would say on distilling solutions, you know, certainly the oversupply environment certainly is there, but we're certainly pleased to see some of the performance that we're able to still deliver. The team's doing a great job of managing operating expenses and also in talking to our customers and expanding our white goods, our premium white goods. And we're certainly pleased to have an industry veteran like Tom join us, you know, three different distilling solutions, multinational companies he's worked for for our next chapter of growth.

We've got our margins were in the mid-30s, and we still expect that to be had. In green solutions, we did update that full segment outlook for the increased costs due to the waste stream disposal. I would tell you that we've always had in our full year segment outlook for ingredient solutions that the back half, we were going to have 15 to 20 percent more pounds. So as those pounds are a bit more costly on the waste disposal side, that's why we sequentially took down that performance. And I'll turn it over to Brandon for cadence.

29:29

Brandon GallChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, as far as cadence goes, Mark, depending on the segment, it can be a little different, but we are, you know, as typical with our business, Q4 will be stronger relative to Q3. And as we're working through the ingredients issues, which are more near end, we expect those to affect profitability in Q3 as well. So Q4 relatively stronger than Q3.

30:03

Marc TorrenteAnalyst, Wells Fargo

Okay, I appreciate that. And then entering the year, it seems you were cautiously optimistic 26 could be a bottom. You had also said that you hope to get some better visibility on key distilling customer needs for 26 and beyond at some point during Q2 or front half of the year. Any updates here in terms of order outlook and maybe your ability to grow off the 26th phase? Thanks.

30:30

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we'll certainly talk about – let's talk about distilling solutions visibility. I think that's a very good question. You know, Tom and team have recently, you know, had customers across, you know, large multinational and also certainly the large and medium craft, and all the customers still remain very focused on reducing inventory. They're in an overslide situation, preserving working capital rather than making new long-term distillate commitments.

In addition, tighter inventory finance and availability of attractively priced aged whiskey continues to discourage new make purchases across most of the customer segments. We do remain very engaged. Our partnership approach is working with our customers. We'll continue to find opportunities through aged whiskey sales. Private label, I think you heard some nice progress and some nice results from our new We are still very bullish on how well we are positioned at the end of this and as we get through this very difficult time that there will be a few winners and we think we're positioned to be one of those. But the market does continue to be driven by inventory rationalization and capital allocation discussions. We certainly, again, we reaffirmed our full year outlook, which is good.

And I do want Brandon, and we do have some new TTV data that would have been launched recently, and I think it's important for Brandon to share that.

31:53

Brandon GallChief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, and so TTV data was recently updated through March, so we got five incremental months of data recently. And the data supports that exact view, which is, you know, this is fundamentally an inventory rationalization cycle. On the production side, trilling 12-month production is down roughly 28% year over year, which is we're now operating as an industry at the lowest run rate we've seen since 2018. On the demand side, dumps for bottling and others is down approximately 9%. Not a great print. However, a lot of this we believe is being driven by weak export data in demand due to tariffs and international trade flows. The most encouraging thing within the data is inventory. Although they remain elevated, year-over-year inventory growth has been cut roughly in half from what it was six months ago, which is an important signal that production cuts are beginning to work their way through the system.

So overall, Mark, we view the data as supportive of a gradual rationalization scenario. We don't yet see evidence of a sharp recovery, but we also don't see evidence that the industry conditions are deteriorating further.

Finally, we're seeing a market that is slowly working through excess inventory, moving towards other routes over time.

33:25

The next question is from Sean McGowan with Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

33:33

Sean McGowanAnalyst, Roth Capital Partners

Thank you. I'd like to drill down a little bit more on the ingredient solution side. So can you talk about, you know, what is it that's holding up the improvement in margins, and when would you expect to start to see some progress on that year over the year? Yeah, thanks. I appreciate that.

33:49

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, here's what has improved, reliability and throughput. As you know, there were significant opportunities as we closed down our Atchison distillery in operating that facility with reliability. The good news is since March, we have been able to produce the pounds that we expected. And again, in the back half, those pounds will be up over 20%. So that's the good news. The opportunity is obviously as we produce those pounds, the waste start stream disposal streams are more costly. The implementation costs and both the costs of disposing them are more costly We made great progress on one of the work streams called Affluent where we talked last time about sequentially improving that and that has gone down But we do see this, certainly this headwind, especially with the more cows produced in the second half.

We do see this persisting to the end of the year, and our full segment outlook does represent that. And for 2027, you know, our expectation, again, the same team that has improved the reliability, same team that is solving the fluent, is the same team that has identified the different work streams that we can improve the other two different disposals. And so we expect, and I'd say by the end of the 2027, you can expect, you know, ending the year around the low 20s for the gross margin.

And so certainly pleased with some performance, but not pleased with some of the other areas that we're encountering.

35:15

Sean McGowanAnalyst, Roth Capital Partners

Okay, and if I can ask you to clarify something you said earlier, when you were talking about rationalizing brands, I think you said that the brands that have been rationalized accounted for 1% of sales. Did you mean 1% of branded spirit sales or 1% of total company sales?

35:30

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

No, that's a great question. No, just 1% of the segment sale. Sorry about that. 1% of the brand's group. And listen, I do want, since you brought it up, I mean, certainly I'm pleased with the progress there. I mean, we said last time we were at 30, we targeted 45, and we're at 52. And as we've talked to our newest distributor partner in what's important on making sure that we can execute against our plan, certainly they're very pleased to see that we're focused on product portfolio, which with their encouragement, It made us rethink that even more. And as we're seeing early proof points that when you focus on the main brands and provide the investment, we've got heavy investment on five, we've got mid-investment on the mid-five, and then selectivist investment, some of the value brands.

When you're able to streamline the focus and the investment, we're seeing some nice results. So I appreciate that question, but we are pleased with some of the progress we're making there.

36:25

Sean McGowanAnalyst, Roth Capital Partners

Thank you very much.

36:26

The next question comes from Mitch Pinheiro with Sturtevant. Please go ahead.

36:36

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

Hey, good morning. I had a couple questions. So, at first, just a clarification, Brandon said on the barrel distillate, you would still expect an increase in netting and net put away between $13 million and $18 million. Did I hear that correct?

36:55

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, that's correct, Mitch.

36:58

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

So we're basically at the high point of the barrel distillate inventory level?

37:10

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, that's correct.

37:12

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

Is that fair to say?

37:12

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yep. And if you go and look at last year, we fall at a very similar arc in that we strive for efficiencies and the front half, we scheduled most of our put away. So this is going according to plan.

37:31

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

Okay. And obviously this put away is for the branded business, correct?

37:37

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

For both, branded and distilling. As you recall, last year we cut back distilling foot away all the way, and this year we're turning that back on to support our long-term strategy in support of our customers. And so it consists of both this year, Mitch.

37:57

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

Okay. And then you talk, and also I saw, you know, you see the finished goods down. Is the finished goods down, is that in the branded spirits business?

38:11

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Much of that's going to be in the branded spirits business. That's correct.

38:14

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst, Sturtevant

Okay. And then when you're looking at the brand, on the branded business, obviously the focus has been on Yellowstone and I guess Penelope, of course. Are you going to focus at all, or how do you think about the Remus brand on the Ross and Squibb side and how that factors into, you know, the brand experience, your outlook?

38:54

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, listen, Remus brand is a fantastic brand that is well-received by bourbon consumers. They love our annual release, but it's a very, very small percent of our business, and certainly what we've noticed is having that limited time release and doing it at a frequency that those bourbon consumers are looking for. We think that's the right approach, given the quality of juice and the core consumer that's behind that, which is the highly engaged bourbon consumer. So that's the strategy there. And then certainly you can see we have very clear strategies for Premium Plus, Penelope, Yellowstone, El Mayor, and Rebel. And then selectively we're investing against mid in value. And just to see some of the movement we've seen, I mean, Mitch, Yellowstone is up 54% this past quarter.

You know, a couple different things. One, yes, we had a limited time offering. The 250th U. S. anniversary bottle came in a tube. It had the Statue of Liberty. We have a seven-year juice, so great juice. That was well-received. But last quarter, I spoke that we started testing our digital investments. Again, we ramped up both capabilities. The first of running it gave a very, you know, 15% of our A&P is now targeted towards digital. It was zero last year. And we tested two different markets on Yellowstone Select, California and Pennsylvania, and I shared they're up double digits. The good news is that momentum continues, and we've actually expanded in another eight markets, and we're seeing similar results.

So, again, very pleased with the focus and attention we have on our product portfolio. Go streamline it and then making sure that each brand, each product portfolio plays a role that should and is appropriately resourced.

40:45

The next question is from Ben Clive with Benchmark StoneX. Please go ahead.

40:55

Ben KlieveAnalyst, Benchmark StoneX

All right. Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations on a nice quarter here. First, I want to double-click on the Ingredient Solutions dynamic, and I'm wondering if you can talk about kind of what the end objective is going to be here for this waste stream. I'm going to be your expectation that you're going to have less of the waste stream when improvements are made or more successfully be able to upcycle it, say, to the fuel plant, or just that your costs to get rid of it are going to decrease. And then also I'm wondering if the elevated cost associated with this dynamic this year is – how much of it is a mechanical issue or an operational one?

41:32

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

You know, I'd just say on the three items that you said, what are the pieces? Are we going to – where is it going to come from? It's going to come from all three, right? One, we have a new dryer that we implemented. We did have the successful shutdown. A hundred different projects, a large piece of equipment, two large pieces of equipment in there, four miles of electrical cables underground were replaced, and we came up on time. The team did a great job, so that dryer will help reduce it, right? So that's one. The second one is being more efficient and effective in where we're disposing of that. And then third, certainly we would expect, you know, once we get class implementation, and I tell you, you know, implementation of this type of facility, and really any facility, are 18 to 24 months.

So we do know what the costs are. We know where they're ahead of our financial thesis. And the same team that has worked on getting reliability back is the same team working on this, and we do have a roadmap on how to reduce those costs.

42:27

Ben KlieveAnalyst, Benchmark StoneX

Got it. Got it. Thank you, Julie. And then one other one for me, and I'll get back to Q's. I'm wondering if you can elaborate a bit on the ready-to-drink business that you're building here. And can you talk about how you are balancing the kind of innovation pipeline you have with introducing new flavors versus kind of stepping on the gaps with existing flavors of products that are getting commercial traction and really leaning in on what you've already built? And maybe that's not a tradeoff, but I'm just curious how you're thinking about this balance so you can kind of understand how significant this product is going to be later this year or next year.

43:06

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, listen, it's a measured approach, right? We have a product portfolio that we streamline, which allows us to have attention and resources that each brand needs. We have a portfolio roadmap for both innovation and also optimization that is ongoing. It's not episodic. RTPs play a really important role. We're early days into it. I mean, 2.4% market share with just seven SKUs is pretty good, right? So we want to make sure that we're not just launching innovation to launch innovation. Our distributor partners and consumers want, you know, want one that they connect with and that are going to sell. And so by having, being really mindful of not just launching a bunch of innovation, being purposeful, what's the right flavor?

How is it differentiated? We're very focused on price package architecture. All of these are below $30. There's 12 pours to a bottle. That's less than $3 a drink for a fantastic tasting drink. And I can tell you what, people are very enthused with both the SKUs, their price point, and also how it connects with them. And it's not just in whiskey. It's also, we've got, you know, we certainly have some new flavors in espresso and really on those trends. And so we're going to be thoughtful, but we also have a whole other piece of business, right? Our five focus brands that we're going to make sure that we are innovating. The new alcohol consumer is drinking, right?

But they do want moments, they want experiences, and they want to try different things. And so ensuring that we continue to engage in that. Certainly Penelope is a fantastic example of a highly engaged bourbon consumer who loves to try different things. Very excited about Penelope Expressions and Penelope Drops. We're going to continue those drops, and we're going to be very mindful of that. But then there's other areas like Core. We didn't have a Kentucky Straight Bourbon. We didn't have an Everyday Rye. Those certainly play a role in any national brand, so launching those and being very purposeful. Our price point is below $40. In this value-minded world with consumers expecting value, that's a great price for great juice.

So we're being measured, we're being thoughtful, and we're being impactful.

45:19

Ben KlieveAnalyst, Benchmark StoneX

Very good. That's really helpful overview, Julie. Thanks for taking my questions. Congratulations again on a good quarter, and I'll get back in queue.

45:27

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

45:28

Ben KlieveAnalyst, Benchmark StoneX

Thank you.

45:31

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Julie Francis for any closing remarks.

45:38

Julie FrancisPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, everyone. We appreciate your engagement in our business, and we look forward to talking again in the next quarter. Take care. Cheers.

45:49

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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