Oshkosh (OSK) risk factors, FY2025 10-K

Oshkosh's FY2025 10-K, filed Feb 17, 2026, lists 29 risk factors in 4 groups. Against the prior year's 27: 4 new, 2 dropped, 12 substantially reworded.

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Risk factors listed
294 groups
New this year
4vs 27 last year
Dropped
2since the prior 10-K
Substantially reworded
12of those kept
Section length
7k wordsItem 1A

What the changes say

  • Tariffs are surging with 2026 costs estimated at $200 million.
  • USPS contract costs exceed future profits by $135 million.
  • Manufacturing capacity expansions and AI adoption create new operational risks.

What changed since the prior 10-K

New

  • NewBusiness and Operational Risks

    The USPS ordering fewer units than we expect which could result in an impairment of our deferred contract asset. We estimate that deferred contract costs exceed future profits on existing orders by approximately $135 million at December 31, 2025

    Deferred contract costs exceed future profits on existing USPS orders by approximately $135 million at December 31, 2025.

  • NewBusiness and Operational Risks

    Our capacity expansion plans may take longer or cost more than we expect or may not achieve the benefits we anticipate

    Initiatives to expand and optimize manufacturing capacity may take longer, cost more, or fail to deliver expected efficiencies.

  • NewBusiness and Operational Risks

    Although we believe there is demand from international customers for our tactical wheeled vehicles, there is no assurance that additional orders will materialize

    A January 2026 executive order prioritizing the warfighter in DoD procurement could alter contract structures or limit share repurchases and dividends.

  • NewBusiness and Operational Risks

    Our use of artificial intelligence and autonomy technologies may expose us to additional risks and may not deliver the benefits we anticipate

    Developing and integrating artificial intelligence and autonomy technologies exposes us to performance failures, safety incidents, and evolving regulations.

Dropped

  • DroppedBusiness and Operational Risks

    The USPS ordering fewer units than we expect which could result in an impairment of our deferred contract asset

  • DroppedBusiness and Operational Risks

    Warranty costs may be higher than we anticipate

Reworded

  • 71% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    Our performance under our United States Postal Service (USPS) contract may not be what we expect

    Removed specific deferred contract cost figures of $842.6 million and updated order counts through December 31, 2025.

    Was: Our performance under the United States Postal Service (USPS) contract may not be what we expect

  • 59% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    Changes in trade policies and other factors beyond our control may adversely impact our results

    Added that U.S. tariffs cost $35 million in 2025 and are estimated to increase to $200 million in 2026.

  • 51% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    We face significant competition in the markets we serve

    Added a consequence that intensified competition may cause lost sales or forced price reductions.

  • 49% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    Fluctuations in prices of raw materials and other inputs may adversely impact our results

    Added copper to the list of volatile commodities and removed steel/aluminum tariff references.

  • 44% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    We must spend significant sums on product development and testing, bid and proposal activities, and pre-contract engineering, tooling and design activities in competitions to have the opportunity to be awarded these contracts. Despite our investments, we may not receive the contracts that we expect

    Renamed Defense segment to Transport segment and added susceptibility to annual U.S. defense budget changes.

    Was: We must spend significant sums on product development and testing, bid and proposal activities, and pre-contract engineering, tooling and design activities in competitions to have the opportunity to be awarded these contracts

  • 44% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    Our dependency on contracts with U.S. and foreign government agencies subjects us to a variety of risks that could materially reduce our revenues or profits or impact our capital allocation strategy

    Updated U.S. government net sales percentage reference from 2024 to 2025.

    Was: Our dependency on contracts with U.S. and foreign government agencies subjects us to a variety of risks that could materially reduce our revenues or profits

  • 35% rewrittenFinancial Risks

    An impairment in the carrying value of goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets could negatively affect our operating results

    Changed Access segment intangible concentration reference to JLG at December 31, 2025.

  • 31% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    We are dependent upon third-party suppliers, making us vulnerable to supply shortages and price increases

    Added supplier decisions to discontinue components for regulatory compliance and IT interruptions as disruption factors.

  • 27% rewrittenFinancial Risks

    We are subject to changes in contract estimates

  • 20% rewrittenFinancial Risks

    Additional liabilities relating to changes in tax rates or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could adversely impact our financial condition and cash flow

  • 20% rewrittenBusiness and Operational Risks

    We may not be able to expand international operations or increase sales and profitability consistent with our growth targets

  • 20% rewrittenFinancial Risks

    Financing costs and restrictive covenants in our current debt facilities could limit our flexibility in managing our business and increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic and industry conditions

All 29 risk factors

Headings as the filing states them, in filing order.

Business and Operational Risks

  1. 01Our markets are highly cyclical. Declines in these markets could have a material adverse effect on our operating performance
  2. 02Our performance under our United States Postal Service (USPS) contract may not be what we expect71% rewritten
  3. 03The USPS ordering fewer units than we expect which could result in an impairment of our deferred contract asset. We estimate that deferred contract costs exceed future profits on existing orders by approximately $135 million at December 31, 2025New
  4. 04Changes in trade policies and other factors beyond our control may adversely impact our results59% rewritten
  5. 05Our capacity expansion plans may take longer or cost more than we expect or may not achieve the benefits we anticipateNew
  6. 06Fluctuations in prices of raw materials and other inputs may adversely impact our results49% rewritten
  7. 07We are dependent upon third-party suppliers, making us vulnerable to supply shortages and price increases31% rewritten
  8. 08Labor issues may adversely impact our results
  9. 09Our dependency on contracts with U.S. and foreign government agencies subjects us to a variety of risks that could materially reduce our revenues or profits or impact our capital allocation strategy44% rewritten
  10. 10We must spend significant sums on product development and testing, bid and proposal activities, and pre-contract engineering, tooling and design activities in competitions to have the opportunity to be awarded these contracts. Despite our investments, we may not receive the contracts that we expect44% rewritten
  11. 11Certain of our U.S. government contracts could be delayed or terminated, and all such contracts expire in the future and may not be replaced, which could reduce revenues that we expect under the contracts and negatively affect margins
  12. 12Although we believe there is demand from international customers for our tactical wheeled vehicles, there is no assurance that additional orders will materializeNew
  13. 13Our results could be adversely affected by severe weather, natural disasters, and other events in the locations in which we or our customers or suppliers operate
  14. 14Consolidation within our customer and dealer bases may impact our strategy, pricing and product margins
  15. 15Disruptions within our dealer network could adversely affect our business
  16. 16We face significant competition in the markets we serve51% rewritten
  17. 17We may not realize all of the anticipated benefits of our acquisitions
  18. 18If we are unable to continue to enhance existing products and develop new products that respond to customer needs and preferences, we may experience a decrease in demand for our products and our business could suffer
  19. 19We are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates associated with our non-U.S. operations that could adversely affect our results of operations and may significantly affect the comparability of our results between financial periods
  20. 20We may not be able to expand international operations or increase sales and profitability consistent with our growth targets20% rewritten
  21. 21Our use of artificial intelligence and autonomy technologies may expose us to additional risks and may not deliver the benefits we anticipateNew

Financial Risks

  1. 22We are subject to changes in contract estimates27% rewritten
  2. 23We may experience losses in excess of our recorded reserves for doubtful accounts and guarantees of indebtedness of others
  3. 24An impairment in the carrying value of goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets could negatively affect our operating results35% rewritten
  4. 25Financing costs and restrictive covenants in our current debt facilities could limit our flexibility in managing our business and increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic and industry conditions20% rewritten
  5. 26Additional liabilities relating to changes in tax rates or exposure to additional income tax liabilities could adversely impact our financial condition and cash flow20% rewritten

Cybersecurity Risks

  1. 27Increased cybersecurity threats and more sophisticated computer crime pose a risk to our systems, networks, operations, products and services

Legal and Regulatory Risks

  1. 28Our international sales and operations subject us to risks that may have a material adverse effect on our business
  2. 29We may be required to make material expenditures or incur additional liabilities to comply with changes in environmental laws or climate change regulations or to meet the increasing societal expectations on companies to address climate change

Other Oshkosh 10-Ks

  • FY2024 10-K risk factors
    27 risks

    Heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts like the 10-year USPS delivery vehicle agreement dominates risk exposure. Supply chain vulnerability stems from significant direct imports from Mexico, China, and Canada totaling $875 million in 2024. Acquisition integrations and cyclical access equipment markets heavily influence operational results.

    Filed Feb 20, 2025

About this page

The headings are the filing's own. The one-line readings and the overview are automated and can be wrong: read Item 1A of the 10-K for the exact wording.