7. Futures, commodities and energy

Oil and gas inventories (DOE, NGS)

DOE and NGS show the weekly US government counts of crude, products and natural gas in storage against last year and the five-year range.

4 min
3 questions
Lesson 4 of 7

Why you would care

Is supply tightening or loosening this week? On Wednesday mornings at 10:30 New York time, oil can move 2% in a minute. The trigger is the weekly inventory number. Gas has its own report on Thursdays. Inventories are the simplest gauge of supply and demand: stocks fall when demand beats supply.

The idea from scratch

Inventories (stocks) are barrels of oil or cubic feet of gas in storage tanks, pipelines and caverns. Each week:

A build is an increase: supply exceeded demand.
A draw is a decrease: demand exceeded supply.

Inventories are seasonal: gasoline stocks fall into summer driving season, gas storage fills from April to October and empties in winter. So a raw number means little. Compare with:

Last year at the same week.
The five-year average and range for that week.

Like all data, the surprise matters: the market has a forecast for the week's build or draw.

Key US series:

Series	Why it matters
Commercial crude	The headline number (excludes the government reserve)
Cushing, Oklahoma	The delivery hub of the WTI futures contract
SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)	The government's emergency stock
Gasoline, distillates	Refined products: driving and diesel demand
Working gas in storage (Lower 48, by region)	The natural gas balance

Diagram: Refiners, terminals, pipelines, storage report to the EIA leads to Weekly release: Wed oil, Thu gas; Weekly release: Wed oil, Thu gas leads to Build or draw vs forecast; Weekly release: Wed oil, Thu gas leads to Compare with last year and 5-year range; Build or draw vs forecast leads to Price reaction; Compare with last year and 5-year range leads to Price reaction.

See it in Gloom

Gloom screenshot: DOE, Crude tab — DOE, Crude tab: commercial crude stocks this year (green) against last year (grey), the 5-year average (yellow) and the 5-year range (band), with the week's numbers below. Historical example.

open ittype DOE (tabs Crude, Products, Gas Storage), or NGS to open the gas tab directly.

Top line: Week ending Sep 25 · released Wed Sep 30 10:30 ET · next Wed Oct 7 10:30 ET.
Legend: Commercial crude 2026 427.3, 2025 416.5, 5Y avg 419.3, in millions of barrels.
The summary line: Build of 922k bbl, in line with the 5-year average build of 895k bbl for this week.
Row Cushing 24.3 M bbl +0.6 +3.6% -5.7%: the futures delivery hub, below its five-year norm.
Row SPR 283.8 -30.2% vs 1Y: the government reserve far below last year.
5Y RANGE dots: where this week sits in the five-year range for this week.

Practice and recap

Try it3 tasks

Was this week a build or a draw for commercial crude? (A build of 0.9 million barrels.)
Is commercial crude above or below its five-year average? (Above: 427.3 vs 419.3, +1.9%.)
Why compare with the same week of past years rather than last week? (Inventories are seasonal.)

Common mistakes4 mistakes

Reading a build as bearish without the forecast.
Ignoring seasonality.
Mixing commercial crude with the SPR.
Forgetting products: a crude build with large gasoline draws can still mean tight markets.

Check yourself3 questions

What is a draw?
Why does Cushing matter?
Which day is the gas storage report?

Answers

A fall in inventories: demand exceeded supply that week.
It is the delivery point of the WTI crude futures contract.
Thursday (oil on Wednesday).

Words in this lesson7 words

inventories (stocks): Barrels or cubic feet in storage.
build / draw: A weekly increase / decrease in inventories.
EIA: The US Energy Information Administration, which publishes the reports.
Cushing: The Oklahoma hub where WTI futures are delivered.
SPR: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
five-year range: The lowest to highest value for the same week over five years.
bbl: Barrels.

Educational material about reading market data, not investment advice.